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StuartHopkin
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« Reply #3540 on: January 04, 2021, 09:22:24 AM »

The question of the day is when will Boris announce all primary schools are to close, can he make it to next weekend to close the schools next Monday or will he announce it tomorrow afternoon to cancel it from Tuesday morning.

The numbers are obvious he has to do the latter, but when will he bow to the inevitable.

Where are you seeing these obvious numbers?
To me, it seems that the teaching unions have decided that political point scoring outweighs the education and mental health of children.

Completely agree with this. Disgusting.
Boris needs to find his balls and set the rules for the next 3 months and stick to them.
Everything closed bar supermarkets, stay at home, except school and work.
No outdoor exercise, it's too cold!  Cheesy
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« Reply #3541 on: January 04, 2021, 10:47:23 AM »

The question of the day is when will Boris announce all primary schools are to close, can he make it to next weekend to close the schools next Monday or will he announce it tomorrow afternoon to cancel it from Tuesday morning.

The numbers are obvious he has to do the latter, but when will he bow to the inevitable.

Where are you seeing these obvious numbers?
To me, it seems that the teaching unions have decided that political point scoring outweighs the education and mental health of children.

Completely agree with this. Disgusting.
Boris needs to find his balls and set the rules for the next 3 months and stick to them.
Everything closed bar supermarkets, stay at home, except school and work.
No outdoor exercise, it's too cold!  Cheesy

My youngest is at school, but they seem to have a valid point.  Sage's advice seems to have been to shut schools and they haven't so teachers have a right to question it.  They have already closed some primaries because of the virus, yet we are tier 4 and not shut.
I am not sure I'd really want to spend time in close proximity to so many others right now. 

There was a letter I saw yesterday from 40 MPs about the vaccine which looked much more like political points scoring, as it looked like a bunch of questions they could have answered using Google.  Forrcing schools to stay open where Covid was causing severe effects on education in the week before Christmas just seemed stupid as well as points scoring.

We were pretty low down a month ago, but cases have quadrupled since then.  Before Christmas, school was open, but my eldest missed over a week though self isolation.  They are due back in a couple of weeks, but that seems unlikely right now.  The school did try mixed home learning/class teaching for those isolated, but it was a bit of a shambles from what I heard.  My daughter would prefer to go in, but think she'd take all online vs teachers trying to do both at once.   

It looks like there will be a further announcement later, and I'd say it was more likely that my youngest is schooling from home than my eldest is going to school in 2 weeks.

I think all options seem bad, so I am prepared to give a bit of slack to both schools that open, those that close, and definitely prepared to give a bit of slack to teachers.  The job seems really difficult right now and whatever they do gets slated on Facebook. 
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« Reply #3542 on: January 04, 2021, 11:32:54 AM »

Christmas shopping and meeting families over Xmas has had the predictable effect of increasing cases a lot, hospitals are getting full and with cases still rising (although noisy data from Xmas break) then hospitalisation will continue to grow until cases start to fall, when hospitalisations grow deaths follow 2 weeks later.

We are in a very bad place BUT vaccines are being injected every day, probably 1m this week maybe 2m next week, deaths will fall from mid Feb with all of these Oder people not dieing as they have the vaccine, the UK just needs to get from here to there.

Boris will do a lockdown, as Scotland, Wales and NI will do it, so is crazy that England with more cases wouldn’t. The entire health and media establishment will shout for it.

If there is a lockdown then schools will close until the end of half terms as figures will not improve before then to justify opening.

What he should do is lockdown this afternoon, schools closed till end of Feb, announce aim for 5m vaccinations a week target for late Jan, if deaths are falling in late Feb then go to national tier 3, then aim for tier 2 at Easter if deaths are below 200 per day and still falling.
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StuartHopkin
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« Reply #3543 on: January 04, 2021, 12:38:43 PM »

Christmas shopping and meeting families over Xmas has had the predictable effect of increasing cases a lot, hospitals are getting full and with cases still rising (although noisy data from Xmas break) then hospitalisation will continue to grow until cases start to fall, when hospitalisations grow deaths follow 2 weeks later.

We are in a very bad place BUT vaccines are being injected every day, probably 1m this week maybe 2m next week, deaths will fall from mid Feb with all of these Oder people not dieing as they have the vaccine, the UK just needs to get from here to there.

Boris will do a lockdown, as Scotland, Wales and NI will do it, so is crazy that England with more cases wouldn’t. The entire health and media establishment will shout for it.

If there is a lockdown then schools will close until the end of half terms as figures will not improve before then to justify opening.

What he should do is lockdown this afternoon, schools closed till end of Feb, announce aim for 5m vaccinations a week target for late Jan, if deaths are falling in late Feb then go to national tier 3, then aim for tier 2 at Easter if deaths are below 200 per day and still falling.

I just cannot see this happening.

I will be surprised if they hit 1m in any week in January. The form on all of this just make me expect red tape, problems, lies and a big mess.

They aren't even targeting 5m a week.

I believe the figure is 15m who need to be vaccinated to start lifting restrictions, so if they close schools now they are going to be off until after Easter.

That should not be allowed to happen.
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« Reply #3544 on: January 04, 2021, 02:20:24 PM »

I have a child at primary school so I hope she goes back tomorrow but still think there can be a 5pm press conference this afternoon and Boris will stop everything for 6 weeks.

I am optimistic about vaccines, it has to start slowly as they jab the very old who need a visit, but soon you can get the old but mobile into large vaccination centres, then get a long line of cars on the inside lane of a motorway, stick a bar code on the myGP app then scan and jab as they drive up, a couple of Heath are workers can do thousands a day.
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« Reply #3545 on: January 04, 2021, 02:44:39 PM »

Christmas shopping and meeting families over Xmas has had the predictable effect of increasing cases a lot, hospitals are getting full and with cases still rising (although noisy data from Xmas break) then hospitalisation will continue to grow until cases start to fall, when hospitalisations grow deaths follow 2 weeks later.

We are in a very bad place BUT vaccines are being injected every day, probably 1m this week maybe 2m next week, deaths will fall from mid Feb with all of these Oder people not dieing as they have the vaccine, the UK just needs to get from here to there.

Boris will do a lockdown, as Scotland, Wales and NI will do it, so is crazy that England with more cases wouldn’t. The entire health and media establishment will shout for it.

If there is a lockdown then schools will close until the end of half terms as figures will not improve before then to justify opening.

What he should do is lockdown this afternoon, schools closed till end of Feb, announce aim for 5m vaccinations a week target for late Jan, if deaths are falling in late Feb then go to national tier 3, then aim for tier 2 at Easter if deaths are below 200 per day and still falling.

I think they will close schools, but I think the Christmas data is hard to interpret.  The 29th had a lot more tests than the days around it; and Christmas Day had a lot less, so it shouldn't be a big surprise that positives shot up on the 29 December.  Deaths and hospital admissions are still rising, but there is a lag, and those cases will mostly be from before tier 4 happened.  I wouldn't want to claim any spike from Christmas yet, as it is hard to distinguish through all the noise and reporting delays.  Similarly, it is hard to conclude what effect tier 4 has had.  A lot of places have very high numbers of positives, but they haven't been in tier 4 for long, and some of the larger percentage increases are outside tier 4, but regional data can be even more noisy than national data.   

I'd probably wait a couple of days to be absolutely sure, but the Government may have better data than me.
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« Reply #3546 on: January 04, 2021, 02:56:07 PM »

I have a child at primary school so I hope she goes back tomorrow but still think there can be a 5pm press conference this afternoon and Boris will stop everything for 6 weeks.

I am optimistic about vaccines, it has to start slowly as they jab the very old who need a visit, but soon you can get the old but mobile into large vaccination centres, then get a long line of cars on the inside lane of a motorway, stick a bar code on the myGP app then scan and jab as they drive up, a couple of Heath are workers can do thousands a day.


I was 3 hours out - it’s at 8pm
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EvilPie
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« Reply #3547 on: January 04, 2021, 02:56:23 PM »

The question of the day is when will Boris announce all primary schools are to close, can he make it to next weekend to close the schools next Monday or will he announce it tomorrow afternoon to cancel it from Tuesday morning.

The numbers are obvious he has to do the latter, but when will he bow to the inevitable.

Where are you seeing these obvious numbers?
To me, it seems that the teaching unions have decided that political point scoring outweighs the education and mental health of children.

Completely agree with this. Disgusting.
Boris needs to find his balls and set the rules for the next 3 months and stick to them.
Everything closed bar supermarkets, stay at home, except school and work.
No outdoor exercise, it's too cold!  Cheesy

Agree with this other than the 3 month thing. How can you possibly fix rules for something that evolves so quickly and often?

If you lock everything down for 3 months then in 6 weeks the infection rate is back in the hundreds how can you justify staying completely locked down? We all know that when you re-open it's going to spread again no matter how long you leave it so why not open thing up as soon as the number get back to something manageable?

Could maybe argue a 3 month complete lockdown to allow the NHS and other organisations to focus on vaccinating everyone but even then how do you justify keeping people at home who've been vaccinated when the infection rate appears under control?

Definitely agree about outdoor exercise. Way too cold.
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« Reply #3548 on: January 04, 2021, 03:09:29 PM »

The question of the day is when will Boris announce all primary schools are to close, can he make it to next weekend to close the schools next Monday or will he announce it tomorrow afternoon to cancel it from Tuesday morning.

The numbers are obvious he has to do the latter, but when will he bow to the inevitable.

Where are you seeing these obvious numbers?
To me, it seems that the teaching unions have decided that political point scoring outweighs the education and mental health of children.


Completely agree with this. Disgusting.
Boris needs to find his balls and set the rules for the next 3 months and stick to them.
Everything closed bar supermarkets, stay at home, except school and work.
No outdoor exercise, it's too cold!  Cheesy

Agree with this other than the 3 month thing. How can you possibly fix rules for something that evolves so quickly and often?

If you lock everything down for 3 months then in 6 weeks the infection rate is back in the hundreds how can you justify staying completely locked down? We all know that when you re-open it's going to spread again no matter how long you leave it so why not open thing up as soon as the number get back to something manageable?

Could maybe argue a 3 month complete lockdown to allow the NHS and other organisations to focus on vaccinating everyone but even then how do you justify keeping people at home who've been vaccinated when the infection rate appears under control?

Definitely agree about outdoor exercise. Way too cold.


Isn't around 3 months the plan to get the first doses of vaccine for the over 50s.  So after that there should be a significant drop off in deaths.   The question is then what happens to hospitals, as the hospital admissions still include a fair few under 50s.  But I suspect that will be manageable as we'll be going out of winter and the average patient should have a better prognosis.

If people are given a sensible likely end date they can believe, and not some Boris bullshit, then I think there is reason to believe the next 3 months should see the end of lockdowns for good.  FWIW Even those vaccinated now aren't going to get something close to full protection for a month or so, so I don't think there will be any easing for at least a couple of months at best.
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StuartHopkin
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« Reply #3549 on: January 04, 2021, 03:10:25 PM »

I have a child at primary school so I hope she goes back tomorrow but still think there can be a 5pm press conference this afternoon and Boris will stop everything for 6 weeks.

I am optimistic about vaccines, it has to start slowly as they jab the very old who need a visit, but soon you can get the old but mobile into large vaccination centres, then get a long line of cars on the inside lane of a motorway, stick a bar code on the myGP app then scan and jab as they drive up, a couple of Heath are workers can do thousands a day.


8pm not 5pm! You were close
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StuartHopkin
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« Reply #3550 on: January 04, 2021, 03:14:26 PM »

The question of the day is when will Boris announce all primary schools are to close, can he make it to next weekend to close the schools next Monday or will he announce it tomorrow afternoon to cancel it from Tuesday morning.

The numbers are obvious he has to do the latter, but when will he bow to the inevitable.

Where are you seeing these obvious numbers?
To me, it seems that the teaching unions have decided that political point scoring outweighs the education and mental health of children.


Completely agree with this. Disgusting.
Boris needs to find his balls and set the rules for the next 3 months and stick to them.
Everything closed bar supermarkets, stay at home, except school and work.
No outdoor exercise, it's too cold!  Cheesy

Agree with this other than the 3 month thing. How can you possibly fix rules for something that evolves so quickly and often?

If you lock everything down for 3 months then in 6 weeks the infection rate is back in the hundreds how can you justify staying completely locked down? We all know that when you re-open it's going to spread again no matter how long you leave it so why not open thing up as soon as the number get back to something manageable?

Could maybe argue a 3 month complete lockdown to allow the NHS and other organisations to focus on vaccinating everyone but even then how do you justify keeping people at home who've been vaccinated when the infection rate appears under control?

Definitely agree about outdoor exercise. Way too cold.


Isn't around 3 months the plan to get the first doses of vaccine for the over 50s.  So after that there should be a significant drop off in deaths.   The question is then what happens to hospitals, as the hospital admissions still include a fair few under 50s.  But I suspect that will be manageable as we'll be going out of winter and the average patient should have a better prognosis.

If people are given a sensible likely end date they can believe, and not some Boris bullshit, then I think there is reason to believe the next 3 months should see the end of lockdowns for good.  FWIW Even those vaccinated now aren't going to get something close to full protection for a month or so, so I don't think there will be any easing for at least a couple of months at best.

Yes, 3 months was what I had read based on if they manage to deliver the vaccine as planned. 1m done + 1 m x 4 in Jan and 2m x 4 Feb etc

I don't agree with the lockdowns now full stop but if we are going to have to do them then just stop messing about and get on with it.

Would have been much better keeping everything locked down from November straight through Xmas.

It does evolve quickly, but it seem's pretty predictable doesn't it?
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« Reply #3551 on: January 04, 2021, 03:33:57 PM »

The question of the day is when will Boris announce all primary schools are to close, can he make it to next weekend to close the schools next Monday or will he announce it tomorrow afternoon to cancel it from Tuesday morning.

The numbers are obvious he has to do the latter, but when will he bow to the inevitable.

Where are you seeing these obvious numbers?
To me, it seems that the teaching unions have decided that political point scoring outweighs the education and mental health of children.


Completely agree with this. Disgusting.
Boris needs to find his balls and set the rules for the next 3 months and stick to them.
Everything closed bar supermarkets, stay at home, except school and work.
No outdoor exercise, it's too cold!  Cheesy

Agree with this other than the 3 month thing. How can you possibly fix rules for something that evolves so quickly and often?

If you lock everything down for 3 months then in 6 weeks the infection rate is back in the hundreds how can you justify staying completely locked down? We all know that when you re-open it's going to spread again no matter how long you leave it so why not open thing up as soon as the number get back to something manageable?

Could maybe argue a 3 month complete lockdown to allow the NHS and other organisations to focus on vaccinating everyone but even then how do you justify keeping people at home who've been vaccinated when the infection rate appears under control?

Definitely agree about outdoor exercise. Way too cold.


Isn't around 3 months the plan to get the first doses of vaccine for the over 50s.  So after that there should be a significant drop off in deaths.   The question is then what happens to hospitals, as the hospital admissions still include a fair few under 50s.  But I suspect that will be manageable as we'll be going out of winter and the average patient should have a better prognosis.

If people are given a sensible likely end date they can believe, and not some Boris bullshit, then I think there is reason to believe the next 3 months should see the end of lockdowns for good.  FWIW Even those vaccinated now aren't going to get something close to full protection for a month or so, so I don't think there will be any easing for at least a couple of months at best.

Yes, 3 months was what I had read based on if they manage to deliver the vaccine as planned. 1m done + 1 m x 4 in Jan and 2m x 4 Feb etc

I don't agree with the lockdowns now full stop but if we are going to have to do them then just stop messing about and get on with it.

Would have been much better keeping everything locked down from November straight through Xmas.

It does evolve quickly, but it seem's pretty predictable doesn't it?

I don't think anything that has happened has really been that upredictable; even without the new variant cases were going to go up after November.  I do think they should just get on with it, and tell people that this should be the last one and should end in about 3 months.  I have no idea why he was banging on about 9 February last time, as it seemed an extremely unlikely date to end restrictions even at the time.

I don't agree with not exercising outside, I quite like going out on my bike when it is this cold, but the local flooding did for some of my routes.  I like going out for a walk when it is like this too, so long as I can get a posh coffee somewhere; Ht Tom Smiley Really don't like running in it.  My car is due a service tomorrow, and was looking forward to a long walk as I can't stop there and it is 15 miles from here.  Guess we'll find out tonight if either the service or the walk is still allowed.   

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« Reply #3552 on: January 04, 2021, 08:56:15 PM »



Promising update on immunities, here.
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« Reply #3553 on: January 05, 2021, 01:56:15 PM »

Not to conflate issues but can you imagine the furore if the EU was vaccinating and we werent. The ERG and Farage should be lauded as life savers imo.
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« Reply #3554 on: January 05, 2021, 02:06:33 PM »

Not to conflate issues but can you imagine the furore if the EU was vaccinating and we werent. The ERG and Farage should be lauded as life savers imo.

Not sure if you are joking in the post, but each EU country can vaccinate as quickly or slowly as they want, they are all doing different approaches as would the UK if it was still in the EU.
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