COVID19

[Doobs]

John Campbell said a few times and again at the end of that video that nothing to do with brexit.

UK just ordered theirs up anyway and rightly so. He has been quite scathing of the european commission regarding the vaccines.

Well, tbf, hes completely wrong about that. Its binary.

You are right, it is binary, we were in the EU when we first approved the vaccines.

[nirvana]

John Campbell said a few times and again at the end of that video that nothing to do with brexit.

UK just ordered theirs up anyway and rightly so. He has been quite scathing of the european commission regarding the vaccines.

Well, tbf, hes completely wrong about that. Its binary.

You are right, it is binary, we were in the EU when we first approved the vaccines.

Why do you think this?

[Doobs]

John Campbell said a few times and again at the end of that video that nothing to do with brexit.

UK just ordered theirs up anyway and rightly so. He has been quite scathing of the european commission regarding the vaccines.

Well, tbf, hes completely wrong about that. Its binary.

You are right, it is binary, we were in the EU when we first approved the vaccines.

Why do you think this?

Ok, fair point, but we were still following EU rules until the 31 December, so we approved the vaccine whilst following EU rules.  Not sure why you think he is wrong; could you explain?

In Insurance we have all been following EU rules, and still are, but different countries have different interpretations and exemptions.  So it has been the case that some things you absolutely couldn't do in a UK headquartered company, you had to do in one headquartered in a different EU country, and vice versa.  The primary legislation has been identical.

Given the varying speeds of vaccine take up, I think it seems OK to assume that the only thing holding other countries back was themselves.  I am not an expert in vaccine rules in the EU, but claiming this has anything to do with Brexit seems doubtful.

[Marky147]

Jon me up.

[Chompy]

^^ Very good that.

See the Thursday night clap is back from tomorrow. Great news for everyone.

Last spring's biggest clappers down my road were telling me a few months ago how the whole thing was a hoax, before both promptly got the virus. Fit and ready to go again now though. Get dem pans'n'spoons out.

[Marky147]

https://coronanews123.wordpress.com/2020/11/02/here-is-bill-gates-injectable-biochip-for-those-who-think-it-is-conspiracy-theory/?fbclid=IwAR2jVUuCMk89X1tjORCGMDEo0aSdyRaO0pg1fQoBLGdGS3yItkt-F-ziE7U

That's what I got from one of my best mates, who has done  a couple weeks at an Ayuhuasca camp, and now knows everything that's going on (I haven't actually clicked the link, so only know the tagline)

Gates & Fauci trying to kill us all via vaccines, and Trump was the last bastion of hope for the whole world.

Now the deep state have us, and we're all done for 

[nirvana]

^^ Very good that.

See the Thursday night clap is back from tomorrow. Great news for everyone.

Last spring's biggest clappers down my road were telling me a few months ago how the whole thing was a hoax, before both promptly got the virus. Fit and ready to go again now though. Get dem pans'n'spoons out.

Have to mark it down for use of 'petri dish', that aside, top rant

[nirvana]

https://coronanews123.wordpress.com/2020/11/02/here-is-bill-gates-injectable-biochip-for-those-who-think-it-is-conspiracy-theory/?fbclid=IwAR2jVUuCMk89X1tjORCGMDEo0aSdyRaO0pg1fQoBLGdGS3yItkt-F-ziE7U

That's what I got from one of my best mates, who has done  a couple weeks at an Ayuhuasca camp, and now knows everything that's going on (I haven't actually clicked the link, so only know the tagline)

Gates & Fauci trying to kill us all via vaccines, and Trump was the last bastion of hope for the whole world.

Now the deep state have us, and we're all done for 

In other conspiracy news, was talking to an acquaintance in Edinburgh today and in the rather nice block of apartments he's in, is a US military Olympian who he's become friendly with.

They're pretty confident that the Chinese Gov deliberately infected all the athletes at the military games so they could go back home and seed the rest of the world with the virus.

Naturally, I concurred that this was the most likely scenario

[Marky147]

https://coronanews123.wordpress.com/2020/11/02/here-is-bill-gates-injectable-biochip-for-those-who-think-it-is-conspiracy-theory/?fbclid=IwAR2jVUuCMk89X1tjORCGMDEo0aSdyRaO0pg1fQoBLGdGS3yItkt-F-ziE7U

That's what I got from one of my best mates, who has done  a couple weeks at an Ayuhuasca camp, and now knows everything that's going on (I haven't actually clicked the link, so only know the tagline)

Gates & Fauci trying to kill us all via vaccines, and Trump was the last bastion of hope for the whole world.

Now the deep state have us, and we're all done for 

In other conspiracy news, was talking to an acquaintance in Edinburgh today and in the rather nice block of apartments he's in, is a US military Olympian who he's become friendly with.

They're pretty confident that the Chinese Gov deliberately infected all the athletes at the military games so they could go back home and seed the rest of the world with the virus.

Naturally, I concurred that this was the most likely scenario

I've got to a point where I just chuckle along, but do poke the bear on occasion when I'm bored with work. I sent him the bloomberg vaccine tracking update, so he can see how well Gates is doing at depopulating the globe.

He did tell me earlier 'This is it, Trump has the win in the bag now'.

This was as they stormed the capitol, so I guess I'm just not smart enough to work out what's going on.

[Marky147]

https://twitter.com/FatEmperor/status/1346863366002909184

Ivor back at it with another 'Most Important video I've ever put together'

[Doobs]

https://twitter.com/FatEmperor/status/1346863366002909184

Ivor back at it with another 'Most Important video I've ever put together'

lead us not into temptation...  I am thinking I don't need to watch this, so instead end up reading what the smiley faces say which is no better.

[Doobs]

https://twitter.com/FatEmperor/status/1346863366002909184

Ivor back at it with another 'Most Important video I've ever put together'

Just watched it. 

1) He has left the lag in at the end of the year, so it is clealy using out of date data.
2) He has included a chart that shows we are 3 standard deviations above normal.   3 standard deviations is not normal, it is hugely exceptional, and it has been happening week after week*
3) Covid has been surging in summer too (see South Africa), so though seasonality is exacerbating the pandemic, it clearly isn't everything.
4) Fuck him.
5) Here are some posts by one of the very best experts in the field.

https://mobile.twitter.com/ActuaryByDay/status/1346754477525770242

Cliffs.  We did make 600,000 deaths overall for the first time in ages (overall, not just from Covid).  Mortality is currently well above expectations. 

Note the caveats as we have a "53 week" year and the bank holidays mess up week by week comparisons right now.    That is what balance looks like.

Stuart McDonald also has produced some threads discussing the current excess mortality vs Covid deaths situation which I have linked to previously.   Clifs of those threads were: Covid deaths are now above excess deaths, some people who died earlier this year would have died by this time anyway, there are still lots of excess deaths overall this year.

* As an aside, 3 standard deviations isn't really happening, because the distribution of mortality has changed due to Covid, so you are never 3 standard deviations away from anything for long.   What you are is 3 standard deviations away from the pre 2020 distribution.

[nirvana]

Doobs, what do you think about making these comparisons against averages? If i want to understand our reaction and measures against this virus versus historical approaches it seems reasonable to calculate the delta in all mortality this year versus the worse year over say the last 20 years and then adjust for proper comparison using actuarial data on life expectancy etc.

No idea what this would show but obvs would make our actions look more disproportionate than they do now when comparing against averages.

Doesnt mean we shouldnt take measures but might suggest cuts in capacity are a bigger issue than the virus itself especially since we now have more effective therapies.

[Doobs]

Doobs, what do you think about making these comparisons against averages? If i want to understand our reaction and measures against this virus versus historical approaches it seems reasonable to calculate the delta in all mortality this year versus the worse year over say the last 20 years and then adjust for proper comparison using actuarial data on life expectancy etc.

No idea what this would show but obvs would make our actions look more disproportionate than they do now when comparing against averages.

Doesnt mean we shouldnt take measures but might suggest cuts in capacity are a bigger issue than the virus itself especially since we now have more effective therapies.

The likes of Stuart McDonald have been comparing vs 5 year averages, correctly.  You can go to 10 years and the comparisions are going to look worse, and not better, as you then show pre austerity mortality in your comparison which was the best ever.  If you go back to avergaing 20 years you are comparing with years where far more people were smoking, and we hadn't made big advances in treatment of heart disease and cancer.  Averaging over 20 years isn't going to be much different to 5, because you take in good years from circa 10 years ago and bad years from circa 20 years ago.  I don't think looking at the worst year from 20 years ago is a proper comparison, as things were very different then.  Five year averaging really does seem a good figure.  

Longevity Matt (https://twitter.com/longevitymatt?lang=en) has been producing comparisons allowing for standardised mortality which takes into account different demographics from an ageing population.
  

[nirvana]

Thanks, great story further down his feed about the last pension payment to the family of someone whos parents had a US civil war pension