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Marky147
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« Reply #4305 on: June 04, 2021, 03:13:06 PM »

Don't do it Doobs!

Get him fumming, so he's out marching Cheesy
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RED-DOG
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« Reply #4306 on: June 04, 2021, 05:14:19 PM »

Do it Doobs, I'd like to see it.

Ignore everything Nirvana says, he has a massively small understanding of the situation.

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nirvana
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« Reply #4307 on: June 05, 2021, 06:33:36 AM »

Do it Doobs, I'd like to see it.

Ignore everything Nirvana says, he has a massively small understanding of the situation.



Haha, very good
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Marky147
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« Reply #4308 on: June 05, 2021, 03:22:46 PM »



Interesting stuff here, about it being found in 2019.
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Marky147
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« Reply #4309 on: June 07, 2021, 12:06:41 PM »

James Ward has updated his modelling and come out with a few scenarios

https://twitter.com/JamesWard73/status/1401806768519405569

Must be great being this smart Cheesy
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« Reply #4310 on: June 07, 2021, 01:43:16 PM »

James Ward has updated his modelling and come out with a few scenarios

https://twitter.com/JamesWard73/status/1401806768519405569

Must be great being this smart Cheesy

I read that earlier.  Cliffs, Covid could still overwhelm the NHS, and not as mant people are likely to die as in previous waves.  The first point is important as many medical procedures have already been delayed for a very long time.  If ICUs are full of Covid people it has a big knock on effect with or without lockdown.

Dr John seemed to have gone down an old rabbit hole with that video you posted before.  That March 19 theory has been discredited a bit, as it doesn't tie up with other data, and there is alot of doubt that it was Covid 19.

Another one has gone, I kind of think that there must be some value in putting the anti-vax stuff alongside the time travel crazyness.

https://twitter.com/thereal_truther/status/1401212458786713602
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Marky147
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« Reply #4311 on: June 07, 2021, 03:37:30 PM »

I hadn't looked into it too much, and won't bother now if it's old hat.

Naomi Wolf is definitely up there as one of the craziest, which is some going at present.
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StuartHopkin
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« Reply #4312 on: June 09, 2021, 10:26:21 AM »

Question for our resident experts

My understanding is;
USA is a little behind us in the vaccine drive now
USA is opening up a lot faster than we are
USA has plenty of Delta variant cases

So, why are they not seeing a similar increase in cases to us?

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« Reply #4313 on: June 09, 2021, 11:19:22 AM »

Question for our resident experts

My understanding is;
USA is a little behind us in the vaccine drive now
USA is opening up a lot faster than we are
USA has plenty of Delta variant cases

So, why are they not seeing a similar increase in cases to us?



I would agree they are a little behind on vaccinations.  I think the opening up is very variable, because they have states, counties and cities all with different rules.  I guess they aren't much different overall, but might be quicker.  

The USA has much lower rates of Delta variant, it is in most of our cases now, but might only be 6% over there.  Note they aren't as good at sequencing as us, so that figure might be higher, but it is still unlikely to be dominant yet, like it is here. https://www.cnbc.com/2021/06/08/fauci-says-us-must-vaccinate-more-people-before-delta-becomes-dominant-covid-variant-in-america.html.  I couldn't find official figures for now, but they were only 2.5% on 22 May  https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#variant-proportions
 
I don't know if you can really compare cases, as we test a lot more than they do, including focusing on areas where the Delta variant is highest.  This could mean that they are going to be slower to pick up on increases than we are, but I think the reason their cases haven't taken off yet is down to the lower proportions of new variant. Up until very recently we have had a lot of cold weather, so maybe we were meeting more time indoors too.  

It looks like they have a bit of a lag against us, so think their cases will flatten off and start increasing in a couple of weeks or so.  They might get a better experience if their vaccination program keeps going well and the weather is going to keep improving.  
« Last Edit: June 09, 2021, 11:41:14 AM by Doobs » Logged

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« Reply #4314 on: June 09, 2021, 11:30:34 AM »

Question for our resident experts

My understanding is;
USA is a little behind us in the vaccine drive now
USA is opening up a lot faster than we are
USA has plenty of Delta variant cases

So, why are they not seeing a similar increase in cases to us?



I would agree they are a little behind on vaccinations.  I think the opening up is very variable, because they have states, counties and cities all with different rules.  I guess they aren't much different overall, but might be quicker. 

The USA has much lower rates of Delta variant, it is in most of our cases now, but might only be 6% over there.  Note they aren't as good at sequencing as us, so that figure might be higher, but it is still unlikely to be dominany yet like it is here. https://www.cnbc.com/2021/06/08/fauci-says-us-must-vaccinate-more-people-before-delta-becomes-dominant-covid-variant-in-america.html.  I couldn't find official figures for now, but they were only 2.5% on 22 May  https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#variant-proportions
 
I don't know if you can really compare cases, as we test a lot more than they do, including focusing on areas where the Delta variant is highest.  This could mean that they are going to be slower to pick up on increases than we are, but I think the reason their cases haven't taken off yet is down to the lower proportions of new variant. Up until very recently we have had a lot of cold weather, so maybe we were meeting more time indoors too. 

It looks like they have a bit of a lag against us, so think their cases will flatten off and start increasing in a couple of weeks or so.  They might get a better experience if their vaccination program keeps going well and the weather is going to keep improving. 


Thanks Doobs

That all makes sense, I didn't realise the Delta cases were that low over there, so assume as it starts to spread we will see similar.

Their vaccination program seems to have slowed a bit, so fingers crossed it stays under control.
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« Reply #4315 on: June 09, 2021, 12:37:44 PM »


That James Ward thread is good, so won't step too much on his shoes.

The reporting of deaths this week has been a bit questionable.  I didn't notifce anyone in the press mention the bank holiday when they reported zero deaths the other day (though just checked and it is buried in the BBC as if it wasn't that significant).  I was hoping Marky was going to pop up yesterday and say "that's because it was a bank holiday, duh!" and then I could have retired knowing my work was done.

Anyway deaths up until 7 days ago were up 20% vs the week before to about 5 a day in England, but the week before they had fallen by 50%.  So overall. whatever the concerns are about the Indian variant (or Delta?), there hasn't really been a big rise in deaths. 

I'd say much the same about hospital admissions too.  We are at levels seen as long ago as a couple of weeks previously, so I am not going to get hysterical yet.  I saw someone from Independent Sage (can't seem to get rid of them after Marky mentioned them) saying Cases, hospitalisations and deaths were all rising exponentially!!! the other day.  The exclamation marks are my interpretation of the tone of her voice when she said it.  The reality is different.

Anyway, cases are rising pretty sharply, so there is a bit of a worry there, but cases are still at a relatively low level nationally.   

My overall take on this is that most over 50s are double vaccinated already, so much of any spread is going to be amongst those who are less likely to be badly affected.  I realise there are people who can't take the vaccine and have compromised immune systems, but even then I struggle to get to a large number of excess deaths in the exit wave.  I'd consider myself about the level of an optimistic James Ward right now.  We still have 3 wweks or so until step 4, so I think we shouldn't be rushing to announce anything.

By next week, I'll have a better look at the numbers.   

Wednesday again, and overall quite good news.

I mentioned before that deaths data was so small that it is hard to pick up a trend from it.  I think that big drop a couple of weeks ago was a bit of an outlier, as deaths didn't increase at all over the last week (40 both weeks in England).  It may be a bit higher when this week's data comes through, but there is still no real sign of deaths increasing significantly.

Hospitalisations are much the same story, they have held pretty steady at about 125 new ones each day.   To put that into context, even at the lowest point after wave 2,  they only dropped by a tiny amount below 100 on the 7 day average.

Cases are where the worry is.  We are now getting about 6,000 a day, and it probably went down to about 1,500 at the lowest point.  What has been noticeable is that the highest proportions are in those of school age.  I have a nagging worry that if this vairiant is really twice as likely to put people in hospital (and kill them) then there is a good chance it causes worse effects than before at the lowest ages.  This needs to be monitored as schools are going to have the highest proportions of those who aren't vaccinated going forward (The should teenagers be vaccinated arguement is for another day).

So overall it seems that the vaccination drive is nearly keeping up with the new variant, so I don't think there is a massive amount to worry about in the UK.  Though delaying "freedom day" just to piss off Andrew Lloyd Webber is almost worth it.   

Just going to add a bit to the travel debate.  Though we are likely to keep a semblance of control of the virus here going forward, I'd say it would be pretty bad to travel from a high proportion Delta variant country (eg here) to a country that doesn't have many people vaccinated (eg Japan). 
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« Reply #4316 on: June 09, 2021, 06:03:37 PM »

Same data, different conclusion.

https://mobile.twitter.com/COVID19actuary/status/1402652224128532488

45% increase over 3 weeks or so isn't as bad as before and I am still unsure if we can conclude that deaths are going to reach a level where weddings should be cancelled again.  I'd also add that the 70% increase in the North West looks like an increase that barely scrapes into double figures.  And pretty much the entire UK weekly increase is in the North West.

People should definitely get double vaccinated if they are offered, particularly in the North West.  Other than that, I don't think people need to be massively alarmed. 
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Marky147
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« Reply #4317 on: June 09, 2021, 06:07:57 PM »

Just need Deepti and her mob to be piped down.
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nirvana
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« Reply #4318 on: June 09, 2021, 07:09:08 PM »

Of any country with a higher population than say 20m we've carried out the most tests per person by far.

The next highest in this population category would be the US with about half the number of tests per person that we've done. It's off the charts insane in my view. Just keep vaccinating

Not really different to what Doobs said, but I think its fair to say that our mass testing approach together with the targeted increases in tests in areas of slightly lower vax take up do tend to make our numbers look more alarming than most other countries would even pick up (in terms of cases).





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Doobs
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« Reply #4319 on: June 12, 2021, 09:11:42 AM »

Lots of discussion of the new Delta variant.

Firstly news from India. 

https://mobile.twitter.com/Rukmini/status/1403561579577151498

and here's the headline: [Madhya Pradesh] saw twice its usual (2018-19 average) deaths in April 2021, and *five times* the usual in May 2021

I also saw one the other day suggesting mortality was 2.5x the highest ever previous level in one of the biggest cities.  India is a much younger country overall than any in Europe.

I don't think there should be any doubt how damaging this variant be if a health service is overwhelmed and the population aren't well vaccinated.

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