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COVID19
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Topic: COVID19 (Read 364250 times)
kukushkin88
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Posts: 3892
Re: COVID19
«
Reply #990 on:
March 31, 2020, 02:27:26 PM »
We’re back to this being a daily occurrence for now:
https://mobile.twitter.com/DHSCgovuk/status/1244976749940703233
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bookiebasher
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Posts: 1381
Re: COVID19
«
Reply #991 on:
March 31, 2020, 02:53:18 PM »
Quote from: Doobs on March 31, 2020, 01:32:07 PM
Do you geta ventilator?
https://thehill.com/opinion/healthcare/490034-how-hospitals-will-decide-who-lives-and-who-dies-in-our-coronavirus-crisis
Do you want one?
https://www.facebook.com/DrKathrynMannix/posts/2949195348436749?__tn__=K-R
I can't really answer that one, but I do think it is unduly negative about ventilators. You can survive intensive care and ventilators, and get back to a near normal life; well you could until covid-19 happened. I wouldn't want a ventilator if it meant I was going to be a vegetable, but I'd also want one if there was a good chance of a reasonable life.
Cheers Doobs , good articles
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StuartHopkin
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Posts: 8163
Ocho cinco
Re: COVID19
«
Reply #992 on:
March 31, 2020, 03:35:30 PM »
Update for my work is next bank meeting on Friday PM and they cannot bring it forward.....
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RickBFA
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Posts: 2001
Re: COVID19
«
Reply #993 on:
March 31, 2020, 03:42:45 PM »
Don't have a link for this but listening to LBC earlier on my daily walk, I heard a reporter quoting research from Bristol University.
They reckon a drop of 6.4% or more in our GDP will result in more deaths in the UK than if the corona virus was left to run its course unchecked.
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Doobs
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Posts: 16579
Re: COVID19
«
Reply #994 on:
March 31, 2020, 03:46:34 PM »
Quote from: kukushkin88 on March 31, 2020, 02:27:26 PM
We’re back to this being a daily occurrence for now:
https://mobile.twitter.com/DHSCgovuk/status/1244976749940703233
A BBC reporter has it on his twitter, so it should be accurate?
https://mobile.twitter.com/lewis_goodall/status/1244985323660152832
And some of them had high blood pressure so were going to die soon anyway :/
I assume the big leap is probably just down to delayed reporting as we have just gone through a weekend.
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Most of the bets placed so far seem more like hopeful punts rather than value spots
kukushkin88
Hero Member
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Posts: 3892
Re: COVID19
«
Reply #995 on:
March 31, 2020, 03:59:26 PM »
Quote from: Doobs on March 31, 2020, 03:46:34 PM
Quote from: kukushkin88 on March 31, 2020, 02:27:26 PM
We’re back to this being a daily occurrence for now:
https://mobile.twitter.com/DHSCgovuk/status/1244976749940703233
A BBC reporter has it on his twitter, so it should be accurate?
https://mobile.twitter.com/lewis_goodall/status/1244985323660152832
And some of them had high blood pressure so were going to die soon anyway :/
I assume the big leap is probably just down to delayed reporting as we have just gone through a weekend.
It is a big leap from the day before but in terms of expected exponential growth it is still on the low side of what is expected. I guess the working assumption until the next ONS update will be that we are ~20% under the true number.
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kukushkin88
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Posts: 3892
Re: COVID19
«
Reply #996 on:
March 31, 2020, 04:01:29 PM »
Quote from: RickBFA on March 31, 2020, 03:42:45 PM
Don't have a link for this but listening to LBC earlier on my daily walk, I heard a reporter quoting research from Bristol University.
They reckon a drop of 6.4% or more in our GDP will result in more deaths in the UK than if the corona virus was left to run its course unchecked.
https://www.google.co.uk/amp/s/www.theweek.co.uk/106338/why-economic-crash-could-cost-more-lives-than-coronavirus%3famp
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Doobs
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Posts: 16579
Re: COVID19
«
Reply #997 on:
March 31, 2020, 04:17:28 PM »
Quote from: kukushkin88 on March 31, 2020, 03:59:26 PM
Quote from: Doobs on March 31, 2020, 03:46:34 PM
Quote from: kukushkin88 on March 31, 2020, 02:27:26 PM
We’re back to this being a daily occurrence for now:
https://mobile.twitter.com/DHSCgovuk/status/1244976749940703233
A BBC reporter has it on his twitter, so it should be accurate?
https://mobile.twitter.com/lewis_goodall/status/1244985323660152832
And some of them had high blood pressure so were going to die soon anyway :/
I assume the big leap is probably just down to delayed reporting as we have just gone through a weekend.
It is a big leap from the day before but in terms of expected exponential growth it is still on the low side of what is expected. I guess the working assumption until the next ONS update will be that we are ~20% under the true number.
I am not sure what you are on about, but there is no correct expected value. If you assume x% per day the current graph will be below exspected, if you assume y%, it will be above expected.
Some reduction in the growth rate will just happen as infected people will be surrounded by more infected people over time (for example if you have a few people in an office, once most are infected, those infected later in the outbreak will have less people they can spread the virus to. If your model doesn't factor this in, you should overshoot a bit. Eventually the graph stops rising once big chunks of people in the area/country have already been exposed to the virus.
Also if you start from a small number, as you do with deaths, you can just get significantly different results depending on what day you start.
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Most of the bets placed so far seem more like hopeful punts rather than value spots
kukushkin88
Hero Member
Offline
Posts: 3892
Re: COVID19
«
Reply #998 on:
March 31, 2020, 04:28:21 PM »
Quote from: Doobs on March 31, 2020, 04:17:28 PM
Quote from: kukushkin88 on March 31, 2020, 03:59:26 PM
Quote from: Doobs on March 31, 2020, 03:46:34 PM
Quote from: kukushkin88 on March 31, 2020, 02:27:26 PM
We’re back to this being a daily occurrence for now:
https://mobile.twitter.com/DHSCgovuk/status/1244976749940703233
A BBC reporter has it on his twitter, so it should be accurate?
https://mobile.twitter.com/lewis_goodall/status/1244985323660152832
And some of them had high blood pressure so were going to die soon anyway :/
I assume the big leap is probably just down to delayed reporting as we have just gone through a weekend.
It is a big leap from the day before but in terms of expected exponential growth it is still on the low side of what is expected. I guess the working assumption until the next ONS update will be that we are ~20% under the true number.
I am not sure what you are on about, but there is no correct expected value. If you assume x% per day the current graph will be below exspected, if you assume y%, it will be above expected.
Some reduction in the growth rate will just happen as infected people will be surrounded by more infected people over time (for example if you have a few people in an office, once most are infected, those infected later in the outbreak will have less people they can spread the virus to. If your model doesn't factor this in, you should overshoot a bit. Eventually the graph stops rising once big chunks of people in the area/country have already been exposed to the virus.
Also if you start from a small number, as you do with deaths, you can just get significantly different results depending on what day you start.
We were told yesterday there’s a ~5 day lag in the numbers, so for a considerable time yet we will see numbers from the period when there were no control measures in place , if we look at all the data from the other countries that are further progressed in the epidemic spread, then doubling every ~3 days is the expected pattern. We are still tracking Italy from the 10 death mark.
The 20% that I mentioned is just the additional deaths the ONS published earlier today.
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Jamier-Host
Hero Member
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Posts: 1834
Re: COVID19
«
Reply #999 on:
March 31, 2020, 05:05:48 PM »
This is what i have been trying to find data for the past few weeks. I had found the ~1700 daily deaths number for UK (normally) but been hard to get a sensible estimate on what the actual uptick is / is predicted to be.
https://news.sky.com/video/covid-19-how-do-figures-of-virus-deaths-compare-to-a-normal-year-11964813
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kukushkin88
Hero Member
Offline
Posts: 3892
Re: COVID19
«
Reply #1000 on:
March 31, 2020, 05:43:10 PM »
Headline so far seems to be that we are, according to Jenny Harries now testing ~12,700 a day, it’s progress:
The latest Murta spreadsheet:
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1eTKeK9vRxgw0KhvKxPCaDrfaHnxQP-n9TsLzsEymviY/htmlview?sle=true
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ripple11
Hero Member
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Posts: 6330
Re: COVID19
«
Reply #1001 on:
March 31, 2020, 06:09:02 PM »
Quote from: Jamier-Host on March 31, 2020, 05:05:48 PM
This is what i have been trying to find data for the past few weeks. I had found the ~1700 daily deaths number for UK (normally) but been hard to get a sensible estimate on what the actual uptick is / is predicted to be.
https://news.sky.com/video/covid-19-how-do-figures-of-virus-deaths-compare-to-a-normal-year-11964813
Interesting, saying 1/2 to 2/3 would have died this year anyway. So an approx excess of 8,000... similar to Flu.
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kukushkin88
Hero Member
Offline
Posts: 3892
Re: COVID19
«
Reply #1002 on:
March 31, 2020, 06:28:29 PM »
Quote from: ripple11 on March 31, 2020, 06:09:02 PM
Quote from: Jamier-Host on March 31, 2020, 05:05:48 PM
This is what i have been trying to find data for the past few weeks. I had found the ~1700 daily deaths number for UK (normally) but been hard to get a sensible estimate on what the actual uptick is / is predicted to be.
https://news.sky.com/video/covid-19-how-do-figures-of-virus-deaths-compare-to-a-normal-year-11964813
Interesting, saying 1/2 to 2/3 would have died this year anyway. So an approx excess of 8,000... similar to Flu.
For the Sky clip, they are working to best case with all the control measures in place, without them the IC model says deaths of ~500,000, so there isn’t a meaningful comparison to be made.
It’s for the US but it’s a pretty good explainer for why the impact it will have on healthcare provision means it nothing like the flu. They also die in a much more condensed period of time. Early evidence also suggests that flu has more co-morbidity type deaths than C19, the data for comparison purposes won’t be available for quite a while.
https://www.google.co.uk/amp/s/www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/coronavirus-map-hospital-beds-covid-19-ventilators-a9412026.html%3famp
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Doobs
Hero Member
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Posts: 16579
Re: COVID19
«
Reply #1003 on:
March 31, 2020, 06:36:00 PM »
Quote from: ripple11 on March 31, 2020, 06:09:02 PM
Quote from: Jamier-Host on March 31, 2020, 05:05:48 PM
This is what i have been trying to find data for the past few weeks. I had found the ~1700 daily deaths number for UK (normally) but been hard to get a sensible estimate on what the actual uptick is / is predicted to be.
https://news.sky.com/video/covid-19-how-do-figures-of-virus-deaths-compare-to-a-normal-year-11964813
Interesting, saying 1/2 to 2/3 would have died this year anyway. So an approx excess of 8,000... similar to Flu.
20,000 isn't
the
deaths expected, it is a possible scenario, and deaths are only kept that low in that scenario if the UK's measures are really effective and some other optimistic assumptions are met.
This article is good.
https://www.wired.com/story/the-mathematics-of-predicting-the-course-of-the-coronavirus/
The problem is that if you produce a range of possibilities, the doom mongers will emphasise the one where 2 million die; and those that don't want the close down will emphasise the 20,000. Of course the 20,000 is dependent on ongoing restrictions for a long time/until a succesful vaccine is available.
The "revised" forecast was covered here by the man who said both 20,000 and 500,000.
https://twitter.com/neil_ferguson/status/1243294815200124928
FWIW 20,000 seems pretty optiistic given we have just had nearly 400 deaths in a day, and the lag in the reporting means that is likely to be understated. I hope it happens, but events are making it increasingly unlikely.
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Most of the bets placed so far seem more like hopeful punts rather than value spots
Pokerpops
Hero Member
Offline
Posts: 1431
Re: COVID19
«
Reply #1004 on:
March 31, 2020, 06:52:04 PM »
Quote from: Doobs on March 31, 2020, 06:36:00 PM
Quote from: ripple11 on March 31, 2020, 06:09:02 PM
Quote from: Jamier-Host on March 31, 2020, 05:05:48 PM
This is what i have been trying to find data for the past few weeks. I had found the ~1700 daily deaths number for UK (normally) but been hard to get a sensible estimate on what the actual uptick is / is predicted to be.
https://news.sky.com/video/covid-19-how-do-figures-of-virus-deaths-compare-to-a-normal-year-11964813
Interesting, saying 1/2 to 2/3 would have died this year anyway. So an approx excess of 8,000... similar to Flu.
20,000 isn't
the
deaths expected, it is a possible scenario, and deaths are only kept that low in that scenario if the UK's measures are really effective and some other optimistic assumptions are met.
This article is good.
https://www.wired.com/story/the-mathematics-of-predicting-the-course-of-the-coronavirus/
The problem is that if you produce a range of possibilities, the doom mongers will emphasise the one where 2 million die; and those that don't want the close down will emphasise the 20,000. Of course the 20,000 is dependent on ongoing restrictions for a long time/until a succesful vaccine is available.
The "revised" forecast was covered here by the man who said both 20,000 and 500,000.
https://twitter.com/neil_ferguson/status/1243294815200124928
FWIW 20,000 seems pretty optiistic given we have just had nearly 400 deaths in a day, and the lag in the reporting means that is likely to be understated. I hope it happens, but events are making it increasingly unlikely.
I think we’d all do well to ignore all posts in this thread that aren’t authored by Doobs, or JonMW.
Including this one probably.
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"More than at any other time in history, mankind faces a crossroads. One path leads to despair and utter hopelessness. The other, to total extinction. Let us pray we have the wisdom to choose correctly."
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