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Betting Tips and Sport Discussion
Tips for Tikay
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Topic: Tips for Tikay (Read 13503410 times)
doubleup
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Posts: 7057
Re: Tips for Tikay
«
Reply #123180 on:
November 01, 2016, 12:18:57 PM »
Quote from: T_Mar on November 01, 2016, 06:39:47 AM
Quote from: T_Mar on October 31, 2016, 03:49:53 PM
Melbourne Cup has 24 runners but with a load of rags and some books paying 5 places it looks good for an EW bet
Nothing I can add form wise that isn't easily available on the internet but Almandin is lightly raced, in form, who has a course win last time out - Like everything else in the race this has been the plan all year. He's never run over 2m which might seem like negative but has lots of stamina in pedigree and may well improve for step up
Stall 17 is ok if not ideal.
12.5 to back on BF, you can get 11/1 5 places with koral or baldy so place terms look good
Recommend 25ew @ 11/1
Welcome any other thoughts from anyone on the race?
Bink!
Great finish, might have been physically sick if Heartbreak City had won, really like the horse but as I think doobs mentioned was quite a bit under BF price along with other British raiders so was reluctant pass - Was also drawn very wide.
well done!
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stumpythefish
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Posts: 178
Re: Tips for Tikay
«
Reply #123181 on:
November 01, 2016, 01:10:47 PM »
Quote from: doubleup on November 01, 2016, 12:18:57 PM
Quote from: T_Mar on November 01, 2016, 06:39:47 AM
Quote from: T_Mar on October 31, 2016, 03:49:53 PM
Melbourne Cup has 24 runners but with a load of rags and some books paying 5 places it looks good for an EW bet
Nothing I can add form wise that isn't easily available on the internet but Almandin is lightly raced, in form, who has a course win last time out - Like everything else in the race this has been the plan all year. He's never run over 2m which might seem like negative but has lots of stamina in pedigree and may well improve for step up
Stall 17 is ok if not ideal.
12.5 to back on BF, you can get 11/1 5 places with koral or baldy so place terms look good
Recommend 25ew @ 11/1
Welcome any other thoughts from anyone on the race?
Bink!
Great finish, might have been physically sick if Heartbreak City had won, really like the horse but as I think doobs mentioned was quite a bit under BF price along with other British raiders so was reluctant pass - Was also drawn very wide.
well done!
Booom ty
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bergeroo
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Posts: 2193
Re: Tips for Tikay
«
Reply #123182 on:
November 01, 2016, 01:29:08 PM »
Tennis in Paris this week
Wawrinka v Struff
Raonic v Carreno Busta
Wawrinka and Raonic have already qualifed for the WT finals.
Fragile performance from Stan in Basel last week. Struff has won 21 of his last 25 matches. Struff is 3/1 in a couple of places
Carreno Busta won in Russia a couple of weeks ago in a weak field. Last week he ran into eventual Champion Cilic in the second round, so he has had a bit of a rest. Last month +China he lost to Raonic 6-4, 6-4. Since then Raonic has had a couple of bad losses to lower ranked opponents and overall his hardcourt season has been quite poor. Carreno Busta is 12/5 in a couple of places which beats the exchange price.
Thoughts?
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bergeroo
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Posts: 2193
Re: Tips for Tikay
«
Reply #123183 on:
November 01, 2016, 03:15:27 PM »
NBA Rookie of the year update.
http://www.oddschecker.com/basketball/nba/nba-championship/rookie-of-the-year
7/4 Favourite Joel Embiid of the 76ers looked decent, but still clearly not fit. He has played 22 and 15 minutes so far. 76ers have back to back games this week and the coach announced he would be rested for the second one of those on Wednesday.
Kris Dunn of the Timberwolves will start at Point Guard tonight. Regular PG Rubio has a sprained elbow, so Dunn should now get several starts in a row and some 30plus minute games. He is 6/1 second favourite and could be worth a small interest now he has the chance to establish himself. One to monitor if you don't want to bet right now, still a lot of unknowns.
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Horneris
#5 BH
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Re: Tips for Tikay
«
Reply #123184 on:
November 01, 2016, 03:34:07 PM »
Quote from: bergeroo on November 01, 2016, 01:29:08 PM
Tennis in Paris this week
Wawrinka v Struff
Raonic v Carreno Busta
Wawrinka and Raonic have already qualifed for the WT finals.
Fragile performance from Stan in Basel last week. Struff has won 21 of his last 25 matches. Struff is 3/1 in a couple of places
Carreno Busta won in Russia a couple of weeks ago in a weak field. Last week he ran into eventual Champion Cilic in the second round, so he has had a bit of a rest. Last month +China he lost to Raonic 6-4, 6-4. Since then Raonic has had a couple of bad losses to lower ranked opponents and overall his hardcourt season has been quite poor. Carreno Busta is 12/5 in a couple of places which beats the exchange price.
Thoughts?
Difficult to say really as hard to decipher which Raonic and Wawrinka will turn up.
If pushed, I'd say leave Carreno Busta (I think Milosh is physically fit and has been practising a lot in Paris ahead of this event) but bet Struff.
Wawrinka has admitted to nursing a minor muscle injury, clearly isn't in great form having lost to Mischa Zverev last week and we know all about Struff's current wellbeing. Its also worth noting Sporting Bet are 2/1 on Struff, their tennis traders are fairly good.
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nuros
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Re: Tips for Tikay
«
Reply #123185 on:
November 01, 2016, 03:58:54 PM »
Nice one T Mar!
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Marky147
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Posts: 22798
Re: Tips for Tikay
«
Reply #123186 on:
November 01, 2016, 05:02:03 PM »
Quote from: nuros on November 01, 2016, 03:58:54 PM
Nice one T Mar!
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tikay
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Re: Tips for Tikay
«
Reply #123187 on:
November 01, 2016, 05:35:08 PM »
Settlement Day
Afternoon.
If anyone is owed cash for bets placed on behalf of Fred in October, please let me know & I'll sort it.
I've been mostly AWOL the last few days, so may have missed a few.
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ripple11
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Re: Tips for Tikay
«
Reply #123188 on:
November 01, 2016, 05:37:29 PM »
Safety car winnings paid to fred.
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TightEnd
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Re: Tips for Tikay
«
Reply #123189 on:
November 02, 2016, 10:02:24 AM »
For Tal
Johnson is on his bye this week, Zeke has had his bye week so has played a game less
we have 18/1 e/w 3 places
Click to see full-size image.
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TightEnd
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Re: Tips for Tikay
«
Reply #123190 on:
November 02, 2016, 11:17:45 AM »
The WBA have sanctioned a super world heavyweight title fight between Anthony Joshua and Wladimir Klitschko for spring 2017...
not in time for this year's SPOTY though...
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AndrewT
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Re: Tips for Tikay
«
Reply #123191 on:
November 02, 2016, 12:54:25 PM »
Quote from: bergeroo on October 29, 2016, 12:43:35 PM
x posted from the WSOP betting thread:
Winning Hole Cards. Any pocket pair 7/1
http://www.oddschecker.com/poker/world-series-of-poker/winning-hole-cards
I've gone through the stats of winning hole cards from Wikipedia from no limit holdem tournaments where it shows the winning hand. I've excluded mixed games/Pot Limit/Limit and ante up.
Here is my data: (pocket pairs/total tournaments)
WSOP Mains 13/44
12/35 WSOP 2016
9/34 WSOP 2015 excluding main
5/33 WSOP 2014 excluding main
6/36 WSOP 2013 excluding main
10/45 EPT first five seasons (doesn't show hole cards on wikipedia after that)
16/38 WSOPE and Australia all time
Total 71/265 tournies where the winning hand was a pocket pair.
We can bet it at 7/1. The maths seem onside.
Only available in two spots, see how much you can get on with them both!
The winning hand ended up being King Ten vs Jack Ten, which is a shame because this looked like a great spot.
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bergeroo
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Posts: 2193
Re: Tips for Tikay
«
Reply #123192 on:
November 02, 2016, 05:16:48 PM »
Quote from: AndrewT on November 02, 2016, 12:54:25 PM
Quote from: bergeroo on October 29, 2016, 12:43:35 PM
x posted from the WSOP betting thread:
Winning Hole Cards. Any pocket pair 7/1
http://www.oddschecker.com/poker/world-series-of-poker/winning-hole-cards
I've gone through the stats of winning hole cards from Wikipedia from no limit holdem tournaments where it shows the winning hand. I've excluded mixed games/Pot Limit/Limit and ante up.
Here is my data: (pocket pairs/total tournaments)
WSOP Mains 13/44
12/35 WSOP 2016
9/34 WSOP 2015 excluding main
5/33 WSOP 2014 excluding main
6/36 WSOP 2013 excluding main
10/45 EPT first five seasons (doesn't show hole cards on wikipedia after that)
16/38 WSOPE and Australia all time
Total 71/265 tournies where the winning hand was a pocket pair.
We can bet it at 7/1. The maths seem onside.
Only available in two spots, see how much you can get on with them both!
The winning hand ended up being King Ten vs Jack Ten, which is a shame because this looked like a great spot.
I think the correct odds are around 4/1 so I'm happy it was a good bet. However the fact that Nguyen got to the heads up probably hit the bet as he played very gambly so more likely to go crazy and get it in with some unpaired offsuit combo to take a chance to try and get the KO. Will happily make the same bet at the same price next year.
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RickBFA
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Posts: 2001
Re: Tips for Tikay
«
Reply #123193 on:
November 02, 2016, 11:19:13 PM »
Just been reading on BBC website that 2 Billy Hill punters will win £205,000 and €770,000 if Clinton wins the US presidency.
Doesn't read that they are from a multiple bet.
Does anyone really believe they will lay single bets that big?
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Jamier-Host
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Posts: 1834
Re: Tips for Tikay
«
Reply #123194 on:
November 03, 2016, 12:25:11 AM »
Quote from: RickBFA on November 02, 2016, 11:19:13 PM
Just been reading on BBC website that 2 Billy Hill punters will win £205,000 and €770,000 if Clinton wins the US presidency.
Doesn't read that they are from a multiple bet.
Does anyone really believe they will lay single bets that big?
They prob laid 0.25 points lower than was generally available. You'd be surprised at how some huge "VIP" punters will not bother shopping around for best price and just whack 6 figures on a footy game or whatever with their usual guy.
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