Tips for Tikay

[doubleup]

Melbourne Cup has 24 runners but with a load of rags and some books paying 5 places it looks good for an EW bet

Nothing I can add form wise that isn't easily available on the internet but  Almandin is lightly raced, in form, who has a course win last time out - Like everything else in the race this has been the plan all year.  He's never run over 2m which might seem like negative but has lots of stamina in pedigree and may well improve for step up

Stall 17 is ok if not ideal.

12.5 to back on BF, you can get 11/1 5 places with koral or baldy so place terms look good

Recommend 25ew @ 11/1

Welcome any other thoughts from anyone on the race?

Bink!

Great finish, might have been physically sick if Heartbreak City had won, really like the horse but as I think doobs mentioned was  quite a bit under BF price along with other British raiders so was reluctant pass - Was also drawn very wide.

well done!

[stumpythefish]

Melbourne Cup has 24 runners but with a load of rags and some books paying 5 places it looks good for an EW bet

Nothing I can add form wise that isn't easily available on the internet but  Almandin is lightly raced, in form, who has a course win last time out - Like everything else in the race this has been the plan all year.  He's never run over 2m which might seem like negative but has lots of stamina in pedigree and may well improve for step up

Stall 17 is ok if not ideal.

12.5 to back on BF, you can get 11/1 5 places with koral or baldy so place terms look good

Recommend 25ew @ 11/1

Welcome any other thoughts from anyone on the race?

Bink!

Great finish, might have been physically sick if Heartbreak City had won, really like the horse but as I think doobs mentioned was  quite a bit under BF price along with other British raiders so was reluctant pass - Was also drawn very wide.

well done!

Booom ty

[bergeroo]

Tennis in Paris this week
Wawrinka v Struff
Raonic v Carreno Busta

Wawrinka and Raonic have already qualifed for the WT finals.

Fragile performance from Stan in Basel last week. Struff has won 21 of his last 25 matches. Struff is 3/1 in a couple of places

Carreno Busta won in Russia a couple of weeks ago in a weak field. Last week he ran into eventual Champion Cilic in the second round, so he has had a bit of a rest. Last month +China he lost to Raonic 6-4, 6-4. Since then Raonic has had a couple of bad losses to lower ranked opponents and overall his hardcourt season has been quite poor. Carreno Busta is 12/5 in a couple of places which beats the exchange price.

Thoughts?

[bergeroo]

NBA Rookie of the year update.
http://www.oddschecker.com/basketball/nba/nba-championship/rookie-of-the-year

7/4 Favourite Joel Embiid of the 76ers looked decent, but still clearly not fit. He has played 22 and 15 minutes so far. 76ers have back to back games this week and the coach announced he would be rested for the second one of those on Wednesday.

Kris Dunn of the Timberwolves will start at Point Guard tonight. Regular PG Rubio has a sprained elbow, so Dunn should now get several starts in a row and some 30plus minute games. He is 6/1 second favourite and could be worth a small interest now he has the chance to establish himself. One to monitor if you don't want to bet right now, still a lot of unknowns.

[Horneris]

Tennis in Paris this week
Wawrinka v Struff
Raonic v Carreno Busta

Wawrinka and Raonic have already qualifed for the WT finals.

Fragile performance from Stan in Basel last week. Struff has won 21 of his last 25 matches. Struff is 3/1 in a couple of places

Carreno Busta won in Russia a couple of weeks ago in a weak field. Last week he ran into eventual Champion Cilic in the second round, so he has had a bit of a rest. Last month +China he lost to Raonic 6-4, 6-4. Since then Raonic has had a couple of bad losses to lower ranked opponents and overall his hardcourt season has been quite poor. Carreno Busta is 12/5 in a couple of places which beats the exchange price.

Thoughts?

Difficult to say really as hard to decipher which Raonic and Wawrinka will turn up.

If pushed, I'd say leave Carreno Busta (I think Milosh is physically fit and has been practising a lot in Paris ahead of this event) but bet Struff.

Wawrinka has admitted to nursing a minor muscle injury, clearly isn't in great form having lost to Mischa Zverev last week and we know all about Struff's current wellbeing. Its also worth noting Sporting Bet are 2/1 on Struff, their tennis traders are fairly good.

[nuros]

Nice one T Mar!

[Marky147]

Nice one T Mar!

[tikay]

Settlement Day

Afternoon.

If anyone is owed cash for bets placed on behalf of Fred in October, please let me know & I'll sort it.

I've been mostly AWOL the last few days, so may have missed a few.

[ripple11]

 Safety car winnings paid to fred.

[TightEnd]

For Tal

Johnson is on his bye this week, Zeke has had his bye week so has played a game less

we have 18/1 e/w 3 places

Click to see full-size image.

[TightEnd]

The WBA have sanctioned a super world heavyweight title fight between Anthony Joshua and Wladimir Klitschko for spring 2017...

not in time for this year's SPOTY though...

[AndrewT]

x posted from the WSOP betting thread:

Winning Hole Cards. Any pocket pair 7/1
http://www.oddschecker.com/poker/world-series-of-poker/winning-hole-cards

I've gone through the stats of winning hole cards from Wikipedia from no limit holdem tournaments where it shows the winning hand. I've excluded mixed games/Pot Limit/Limit and ante up.

Here is my data: (pocket pairs/total tournaments)

WSOP Mains 13/44
12/35 WSOP 2016
9/34 WSOP 2015 excluding main
5/33 WSOP 2014 excluding main
6/36 WSOP 2013 excluding main
10/45 EPT first five seasons (doesn't show hole cards on wikipedia after that)
16/38 WSOPE and Australia all time

Total 71/265 tournies where the winning hand was a pocket pair.

We can bet it at 7/1. The maths seem onside.

Only available in two spots, see how much you can get on with them both!

The winning hand ended up being King Ten vs Jack Ten, which is a shame because this looked like a great spot.

[bergeroo]

x posted from the WSOP betting thread:

Winning Hole Cards. Any pocket pair 7/1
http://www.oddschecker.com/poker/world-series-of-poker/winning-hole-cards

I've gone through the stats of winning hole cards from Wikipedia from no limit holdem tournaments where it shows the winning hand. I've excluded mixed games/Pot Limit/Limit and ante up.

Here is my data: (pocket pairs/total tournaments)



WSOP Mains 13/44
12/35 WSOP 2016
9/34 WSOP 2015 excluding main
5/33 WSOP 2014 excluding main
6/36 WSOP 2013 excluding main
10/45 EPT first five seasons (doesn't show hole cards on wikipedia after that)
16/38 WSOPE and Australia all time

Total 71/265 tournies where the winning hand was a pocket pair.

We can bet it at 7/1. The maths seem onside.

Only available in two spots, see how much you can get on with them both!

The winning hand ended up being King Ten vs Jack Ten, which is a shame because this looked like a great spot.

I think the correct odds are around 4/1 so I'm happy it was a good bet. However the fact that Nguyen got to the heads up probably hit the bet as he played very gambly so more likely to go crazy and get it in with some unpaired offsuit combo to take a chance to try and get the KO. Will happily make the same bet at the same price next year.

[RickBFA]

Just been reading on BBC website that 2 Billy Hill punters will win £205,000 and €770,000 if Clinton wins the US presidency.

Doesn't read that they are from a multiple bet.

Does anyone really believe they will lay single bets that big?

[Jamier-Host]

Just been reading on BBC website that 2 Billy Hill punters will win £205,000 and €770,000 if Clinton wins the US presidency.

Doesn't read that they are from a multiple bet.

Does anyone really believe they will lay single bets that big?

They prob laid 0.25 points lower than was generally available. You'd be surprised at how some huge "VIP" punters will not bother shopping around for best price and just whack 6 figures on a footy game or whatever with their usual guy.