The UK Politics and EU Referendum thread - merged

[kukushkin88]

Alastair Campbell’s view of Corbyn, the Labour Party and Boris’s strategy.

https://amp.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2019/jul/29/jeremy-corbyn-labour-party-brexit

Cliffs: he’s not a Corbyn fan.

Good morning

If we’re going to value his thoughts on Corbyn (I think we should), I think we should also value his view on Boris.

https://www.theneweuropean.co.uk/top-stories/alistair-campbell-on-an-evening-with-boris-johnson-and-miley-cyrus-1-6180111

https://alastaircampbell.org/2019/07/how-the-seeds-of-fascism-are-being-sown-by-trump-and-his-fellow-populists/

I love the Miley Cyrus story.

The blog post is too wordy, always an indication that the argument is a little contrived, the linkages being suggested a little less connected.
I’m not saying Trump is anything other than dangerous for the world, nor that Boris is going to go down in history as a great PM, just that AC is working his point too hard.

Yeah, the story is 👌, had me chuckling.

It’s The Mirror but since it’s the view of the author we are interested in, I thought it OK:

https://www.google.co.uk/amp/s/www.mirror.co.uk/news/politics/alastair-campbell-i-know-what-18770391.amp

[TightEnd]

Game Theory argument for Boris' approach - and El Erian below explains why it might work...

1. Commit credibly to No Deal - thru Cabinet appointments, spending
2. Try to isolate Dublin. Force its choice btwn backstop and November No Deal
3. Do better deal.

https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2019-07-25/boris-johnson-s-brexit-hard-line-could-force-europe-to-compromise

[TightEnd]

Faisal Islam wrote

"in order to send credible message on No Deal, PM needs to ramp up expectations of it, not play down.

This is because tens of thousands of small biz have not even taken most basic step in customs preparation because its a waste of working capital if No Deal not happening

rather high risk strategy however. if PM & Cabinet ramp up No Deal rhetoric, other businesses, currency markets & public at large will also react accordingly.

Hence what appear somewhat confusing & contradictory messages. No Deal both a million to one, and working assumption."

[TightEnd]

The European Research Group don’t like Boris Johnson’s Cabinet and don’t trust his advisors

https://www.newstatesman.com/politics/uk/2019/07/boris-johnson-has-new-problem-brexit-ultras

I henceforth rename them the BABs

Brexiteers against Brexit.

[TightEnd]

this thread goes down interesting avenues

https://twitter.com/GuitarMoog/status/1151085194570600448?s=20

it starts

"If we now work on the assumption that Johnson's objective is No Deal, and that he will never request an Art50 extension, we're going to need MPs to get over their fear of revoking Art50 if they are serious about stopping No Deal. "

---

pretty difficult to see it happening with a Chocolate teapot as leader of the opposition tbh

[MANTIS01]

It should be million to one....

But Boris added the caveat “if the EU is sensible”

Hence why it’s not a million to one

[ripple11]

Withdrawal Agreement is ratified, Article 50 extended beyond 2019 or Article 50 revoked      1/2

UK leave the EU in 2019 without Withdrawal Agreement in place                                        6/4

Can't be long before these prices switch over?

[kukushkin88]

Withdrawal Agreement is ratified, Article 50 extended beyond 2019 or Article 50 revoked      1/2

UK leave the EU in 2019 without Withdrawal Agreement in place                                        6/4

Can't be long before these prices switch over?

I feel as sure as ever that no deal won’t happen. Boris/Gove very aware of how extreme the downside is.

I actually think Parliament revoking Art.50 probably plays out quite well for Boris. His popularity relatively unscathed, biggest immediate problem, making Brexit happen gone for now and an enormous boost to the economy. In theory he keeps most of his support on side and would be looking strong heading for the inevitable election. (This might have been covered in the Steve Bullock twitter thread that Tighty linked)

[MANTIS01]

In his initial speech Boris put a lot of emphasis on regaining the trust of the electorate

Revoking Article 50 doesn’t achieve that main goal

[kukushkin88]

In his initial speech Boris put a lot of emphasis on regaining the trust of the electorate

Revoking Article 50 doesn’t achieve that main goal

If it wasn’t he who did it though but Parliament, then he could probably use that situation to his advantage in the aftermath.

We really shouldn’t attach much value to what he says, it’s like people have assumed that he suddenly somehow transformed in to a man of principle, it’s bit of a stretch to think that his word now counts for something. Let’s judge him by his actions (same for everyone else).

[MANTIS01]

Boris aside.

Revoking Article 50 would indeed lose the trust of the electorate.

What’s more MPs who supported this motion, particularly in constituencies with Leave majorities, could hardly be called trustworthy themselves

[Karabiner]

Why do we keep hearing warnings from Macron? Always seems to be France dishing out the threats. Is he official EU badass spokesman?

Why not let Finland or Bulgaria offer opinion in the fair equal union?

Sounds like Trump will sort out his trapping off, about time France’s overpriced wine took a bigger hit when compared to the quality elsewhere around the world.

Says the man who only drinks rosé about the pumpkin who only drinks diet coke.

PS Bandol rosé is the nuts imho.

[Sheriff Fatman]

I don't believe that Corbyn is massively unpopular, he has just made a huge blooper and strategic error. The amount of support he was getting in the General election was huge and the result was pretty good, considering.

If he had played his hand differently, by supporting a referendum clearly and quicker, who knows what position Labour would be in now. I'd imagine they'd be polling much differently. But here we are facing a general election in which we have no idea if it's going to be Leave/Remain focused

Beyond the cult, he's electoral poison.

Take 'peak Corbyn' of 2017, who failed to beat Theresa May despite a Tory campaign that self-destructed, and add in all the subsequent issues with anti-semitism, Panorama, the EHRC investigation, nepotism in the senior jobs, interference in disciplinary issues, significant numbers of people quitting the party some of whom are joining the Lib Dems, a pay dispute with their own staff, his weak reaction to events such as the Salisbury attacks enhancing the long-standing 'security risk' doubts about him, and the fact that there's basically public open warfare between the two camps within the party in Parliament, etc.

He was unable to get better approval ratings than Theresa May, even after she was forced out, and he'll undoubtedly score even worse against Boris.  The first clash in the Commons between them was a fair reflection of how PMQ's will look when they resume, and it's an arena where the imagery matters more than the substance of the debate.

The local and, particularly, the EU elections showed that long-time Labour voters were prepared to jump ship in significant numbers for various reasons, with Brexit probably the main one.  A lot of those voters will refuse to consider going back to Labour while Corbyn remains in charge.

The position might improve a little with a new leader, but the underlying problem is the infiltration of the party by the Trots/SWP factions within the CLP's, etc.  The party is simply unrecognisable as Labour to many former voters.  The Labour 'brand' always has intrinsic value from those voters not particularly engaged with politics who always vote Labour for whatever reason.  However, even that has been significantly eroded in the last two years.

[TightEnd]

A basic Remainer position at present is that they have a moral obligation to stop Brexit because nobody voted for a WTO-only or a so-called “No Deal” Brexit.

The democratic ideal, they say, is therefore on their side now.

No deal was hardly mentioned before June 2016. We voted, whichever way, in the reasonable expectation that the large, sophisticated and expensive political and administrative classes of the UK and the EU, which we pay for, would be sufficiently skilled and competent to negotiate and ratify a withdrawal agreement.

Does this claim stack up?

i think i know who will answer how :-) but will throw it out there for discussion

[TightEnd]

I don't believe that Corbyn is massively unpopular, he has just made a huge blooper and strategic error. The amount of support he was getting in the General election was huge and the result was pretty good, considering.

If he had played his hand differently, by supporting a referendum clearly and quicker, who knows what position Labour would be in now. I'd imagine they'd be polling much differently. But here we are facing a general election in which we have no idea if it's going to be Leave/Remain focused

Beyond the cult, he's electoral poison.

Take 'peak Corbyn' of 2017, who failed to beat Theresa May despite a Tory campaign that self-destructed, and add in all the subsequent issues with anti-semitism, Panorama, the EHRC investigation, nepotism in the senior jobs, interference in disciplinary issues, significant numbers of people quitting the party some of whom are joining the Lib Dems, a pay dispute with their own staff, his weak reaction to events such as the Salisbury attacks enhancing the long-standing 'security risk' doubts about him, and the fact that there's basically public open warfare between the two camps within the party in Parliament, etc.

He was unable to get better approval ratings than Theresa May, even after she was forced out, and he'll undoubtedly score even worse against Boris.  The first clash in the Commons between them was a fair reflection of how PMQ's will look when they resume, and it's an arena where the imagery matters more than the substance of the debate.

The local and, particularly, the EU elections showed that long-time Labour voters were prepared to jump ship in significant numbers for various reasons, with Brexit probably the main one.  A lot of those voters will refuse to consider going back to Labour while Corbyn remains in charge.

The position might improve a little with a new leader, but the underlying problem is the infiltration of the party by the Trots/SWP factions within the CLP's, etc.  The party is simply unrecognisable as Labour to many former voters.  The Labour 'brand' always has intrinsic value from those voters not particularly engaged with politics who always vote Labour for whatever reason.  However, even that has been significantly eroded in the last two years.

Prof Brian Cox asks

"Isn’t the choice before the Labour Party clear? There would be a reasonable chance of a Labour government / SNP, Lib, Lab coalition this year with Starmer or Thornberry as leader, and a significantly lower probability with Corbyn as leader. Isn’t that incontrovertible?"