Tips for Tikay

[bergeroo]

The top goalscorer markets are out now for all countries and there are a number of disparities between the bookies with no betfair to guide them,

Posting my thoughts on a few of the countries for discussion. Bets are with books that Fred can't get on though...

Switzerland
http://www.oddschecker.com/football/euro-2016/switzerland-euro-2016-specials/top-goalscorer

356 seem  particularly out of line on this one, offering 6/1 Shaqiri and 7/1 Seferovic. Much bigger than the other two bookies. I think these both must be good bets. I'd favour a bet on Shaqiri as he is certain to start and play every game, likely wide in a front three. Seferovic will probably start the first game up front but he has been somewhat underwhelming and not a potent goalscoring threat and his place must be under threat, particularly by youngster Embolo. Mehmedi from Leverkusen looks like he could play as the other wide frontman, but he is not a big scorer, so I'm ruling him out despite the enticing 16/1.

Unlike some of the smaller countries, Switzerland should get through their group and may even have a weak second round opponent, so they should play 4 and possibly 5 matches. Could well take a few goals to win this market.

So I've gone for a bet on Shaqiri at 6/1 here on 356. Fred can have £10 of my bet if other posters think this represents value.


Ukraine
http://www.oddschecker.com/football/euro-2016/ukraine-euro-2016-specials/top-goalscorer

Ukraine's wide forwards are exciting and dangerous players with a goal threat. The centre forward position seems uncertain and minutes could be shared between a couple of strikers. Nobody seems nailed on in the centre, but the two wingers are Ukraine's top two attacking threats. Lads and 356 make Yaramalenko a significant favourite in this market over Konoplyanka but Shy price them both up at 7/2. I like a bet on Yaramalenko with Shy at 7/2

Albania
http://www.oddschecker.com/football/euro-2016/albania-euro-2016-specials/top-goalscorer

This team is a very much an unknown quantity and I can't work out who will start up front for them. No goalscorer is the current favourite in the market. But one player I do know is central midfielder Amir Abrashi who has played a significant role in Freiburg's promotion to the German top division this season. He is an all round defensively minded action midfielder with three goals for his club this season. He played in all of Albania's qualifiers except one and has featured in friendlies. It seems he is in line for some minutes in the tournament, especially as Albania could play a 451 formation.

With the three bookies he is priced 10-1, 12-1 and 50-1. 356 have him right down at the bottom of the list for some reason and way bigger than the other two. I've had a small bet at 50/1 as there are still a lot of unknowns but this seems like a good price for me for a central mid. One goal could win this one and he is capable of a goal despite not scoring for his country yet. Very much a banzai though.

For Albania, I'm very excited to see if Milot Rashica gets to play in this tournament. He is a young exciting winger who has just made his international debut. He might be too inexperienced to start the first match, but I'll be checking out their last friendly to see if he figures. One would suspect that the manager would look to keep it tight early on though and stick with the players who got through qualifying (drones and all) and use their flamboyant player as an impact substitute.

[Sportshead]

Good write up
Would definitely endorse the Yarmalenko bet,Konoplyanko much more an out and out winger

Good markets these ,was looking myself at Tosun @5/1 lads for Turkey as Yilmaz still not 100% fit
Also Gotze 8/1 b365 looks value for Germany possible he could play as  a 'false 9' ( also like Schurrie here @25s as he will get playing time )

And to add to you're Banzai ,got a love these , what do you think of Italy no goalscorer @ 50s
They are not a good  side and this I more based on their opponents they open against Belgium and with Tottenhams CB pairing both probably starting as fullbacks will be tight and neither team will be gung-ho in this 1st game
Next up are Sweden who will be planning t grind out games hoping Ibra nicks a goal or 2
Followed by Rep of Ireland who could at this stage need just a draw to progress

Obv a long shot but with so many injury problems I could actually see Italy not progressing

[bergeroo]

Looks like the firm from Staffordshire have pulled their markets. The Ukraine bet is still there though...

For Germany, it would look like they are likely to get 6 or 7 games and I'm very reluctant to bet against Mueller. His record in major tournaments is excellent. If you like Goetze then I reckon you should back him each way at 40/1 in the main top scorer market. Schuerrle at 80s for that.

(I have no umlaut on this keyboard and it really bugs me!)

Don't know enough about the Turkey squad at the moment, will have to research.

[MereNovice]

Looks like the firm from Staffordshire have pulled their markets. The Ukraine bet is still there though...

For Germany, it would look like they are likely to get 6 or 7 games and I'm very reluctant to bet against Müller. His record in major tournaments is excellent. If you like Götze then I reckon you should back him each way at 40/1 in the main top scorer market. Schürrle at 80s for that.

(I have no umlaut on this keyboard and it really bugs me!)

Don't know enough about the Turkey squad at the moment, will have to research.

FYP 

[Tal]

Looks like the firm from Staffordshire have pulled their markets. The Ukraine bet is still there though...

For Germany, it would look like they are likely to get 6 or 7 games and I'm very reluctant to bet against Mueller. His record in major tournaments is excellent. If you like Goetze then I reckon you should back him each way at 40/1 in the main top scorer market. Schuerrle at 80s for that.

(I have no umlaut on this keyboard and it really bugs me!)

Don't know enough about the Turkey squad at the moment, will have to research.

Hold down the Alt key and type 129 on the numberpad. 

[arbboy]

big outside at P Barr this morning.  The wides are literally flying out of the boxes at different speed to the railers.

[Tal]

A brief pictorial round up of recent sporting stories...

After selecting Henderson, Sturridge and Wilshere in his 23, Roy Hodgson announces his standby squad for France:



Steph Curry is proof that NBA Jam wasn't a 1990s computer game but a prediction of what was to come:



The tennis is called off for the day at Rolland Garros because of heavy rain, although sponsors LeShark seize the opportunity to get some extra advertising in:



Definitely outside bias there.

And finally, with growing belief that there might soon be an NFL franchise in Las Vegas, the funding for the new stadium seems bizarrely to be linked to a staking thread on a UK poker forum.



"$1500 PLO
550 PLO8
1000 Big O
$20m Linebacker"

[Sportshead]

Another international friendly tonight which seems to be priced conservatively
Rep of Ireland are playing Belarus in Cork

Ireland are 5/6 generally I would of expected them to be a lot shorter
Belarus have won just 2 from their last 10 including a victory over Luxembourg
They also got roundly beaten 3-0 by Northern Ireland at the weekend

The Irish are not naming their final squad until after the match so many of the fringe players getting the chance to impress this evening so I would think they will be looking to put in good performances, they have lost only 1 in the last 10 games and have along unbeaten home record
Would say it's worth a bet

On a side note Robbie Keane looking likely to miss the euros through injury and was going to put Shane Long forward as their likely top scorer , his price may drop after tonight's squad announcement if Keane confirmed out

[Sportshead]

Sorry- pretty Insipid 1st half by Ireland , better in the 2nd but got caught on the break despite dominating ended 1-2

[MereNovice]

May 2016 Figures

Closed bets: 96
Amount wagered: £3,375.12
Profit/loss: £1,443.23
ROI: 42.76%

Number of "sports" bet on: 12
Most popular: MotorSport (36), Football (21), Tennis (16), Misc. (6)
Most profitable: Football (£1261.59), MotorSport (£429.26), Boxing (£110.00), Darts (£55.00)
Least profitable: Snooker (-£230.00), Horses (-£130.00), Tennis (-£80.00), Dogs (-£20.00), RU (-£20.00)

Number of tipsters: 20 including 1 new tipster.


Going forward.

Open bets: 23
Amount staked: £1060.77



Overall statistics (since February 2012)

Total closed bets: 5,746
Amount wagered: £172,026.98
Profit/loss: £11,400.47
ROI: 6.63%

Number of "sports" bet on: 30
Most popular:  Football (1,335), Horses(1,333), Golf (423), NFL(343).

Most and least profitable sports (based on aggregate profit/loss) are:
        
Sport               Profit  Amt Bet       ROI   No.
Football   5,966.83   42,138.22   14.16   1,335
Horses   2,205.24   43,041.54   5.12   1,333
Misc.   1,970.50   7,924.39   24.87   207
...
Snooker   -347.50   1,841.00   -18.88   48
RU   -392.19   4,803.29   -8.17   255
Dogs   -414.41   4,138.96   -10.01   143


The complete list is here:
http://bit.ly/1SVMlbq


Total number of tipsters: 190


Number of different bookies/exchanges/agents: 63

Most and least profitable bookies (based on aggregate profit/loss) are:
        
Bookie          Profit     Amt Bet   ROI     No.
Ladbrokes      3,247.12   20,810.34   15.60   781
Bwin      3,042.33   4,947.86   61.49   132
BoyleSports      2,505.40   4,520.45   55.42   116
...
marky147   -626.00   1,017.00   -61.55   36
BetDaq      -977.60   1,192.50   -81.98   6
BetFred      -1,755.43   14,063.72   -12.48   471


The complete list is here:
http://bit.ly/21mulr3


Archived bets:

2015   http://bit.ly/1rqbcrT

2014  http://bit.ly/1UovMUW

Pre-2014  http://bit.ly/1QIg2Fg


Tips for Tikay went over £11K in profit for the first time.

[Karabiner]

Amazing work Vince, punctual as ever.

Pinch and a punch and no returns etc.

[MereNovice]

Amazing work Vince, punctual as ever.

Pinch and a punch and no returns etc.

Thank you.

White rabbits, white rabbits.

[TightEnd]

Royal London One Day Cup Cricket

Starts this Sunday

50 over competition, 18 counties split into 2 groups North and South

Top 4 from each into knockout stages, then Lords final at end of season

Last season Gloucs won at 33-1, season before Durham at 20-1

Big priced winners of this are not an accident

All counties operate within a salary cap, and it is impossible given the volume of cricket played in our summer to prioritise doing well in each competition, and RLODC (as with the 50 over game as a whole with the T20 game such a focus worldwide) is very much the third of three domestic English competitions

So a side going well in CC or T20 typically will concentrate resources in those competitions, often play weakened/developmental teams in the RLODC group stages. this allows a side like gloucs (deeply unfashionable no stars side ) last year or durham the year before that (no overseas pros, not a lot of one day pedigree) to have a run.

This is even more the case this year as it is only one up from SSCCD2, lot of sides going to be out of contention for promotion early and can have a good go in the RLODC when on paper stronger sides are going to be concentrating elsewhere (this tends to see the likes of yorkshire. notts etc hugely under-priced. good sides but bad betting value away from the county championship)

In addition because cricket schedule is so crowded worldwide (for example a number of the pros go and play the caribbean t20 in august), v few of the star overseas pros are going to be in line ups through the RLODC, and many counties aren’t spending budget on overseas resources for this competition, the T20 blast is the priority

So, the head of the market is full of the fashionable division one county teams. As explained though, many have other fish to fry

http://www.oddschecker.com/cricket/royal-london-one-day-cup/winner

in county div 2 only three teams are already realistically in contention to go up (the rest are more than a win behind). essex, kent and Worcestershire. worcestershire at 33-1 is a big price, but think they are going deep into the season in contention in the four day and t20 game already. Kent also, fast developing one day side but gihting on multiple fronts is tough

beyond those sides there is an obvious play at a nice price in Sussex

Sussex have a high powered batting line up

Luke Wright
Chris Nash
Ross Taylor (who is here all season)
Ed Joyce

are a very handy top 4

And a couple of young thumpers in Craig Cachopa and Matt Machan after them

They will have Mustafizur/Wiese and Tymal mills (plays t20 only) in the t20 side so the regular seamers aren’t going to be overworked and will be available for the RLODC

They have two very good spin options in danny briggs and will beer for when pitches dry out later in the summer when the majority of the key RLODC games are played

The side isn’t going to be affected by England calls and they can certainly have a run at this at a price. last season the team was in a full on relegation battle in the four day game and the one day stuff really suffered. ended up going down, unlikely to go up straight away and aren't to my mind a bottom half of the betting market team

Recommend £50 Sussex 16-1 available widely

[MereNovice]

This is last 16. I expect her to be too strong for Venus - who I'm surprised has managed to get so far...

But then the money match for us is the quarter final which is set up to most likely be against Madison Keys, who was the other lady whom I was considering in this market. A dangerous player who seems to be finding her feet on clay.

Long way to go in this one, but I'm happy with the spot!

Suggest £20 Timea Bacsinszky 7/1 to win Second quarter of French Open with the bald man
http://www.oddschecker.com/tennis/french-open/womens/player-to-win-2nd-quarter

Gonna top up a bit more myself too with Mere's approval!

timea v venus williams to win this one today?

Timea Bacsinskzy will play Kiki Bertens in the QF.

[TightEnd]

chompy

i am going to close off the minding with a run stuff. trust you are ok with that?

"Favourite Minding among Oaks nine but Even Song is out http://bit.ly/1Pj2rKO "


with 9 in it and a shortpriced hotpot can we have some each way fun? its 10-1 bar three and hopefully 8 runners go to post

http://www.oddschecker.com/horse-racing/ante-post-racing/flat/the-oaks/winner