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Author Topic: Tips for Tikay  (Read 13434087 times)
TightEnd
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« Reply #129120 on: July 19, 2017, 08:34:53 AM »

WSOP " Sorry, this market has been suspended " Coral

let me know if it goes back up please
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« Reply #129121 on: July 19, 2017, 08:39:57 AM »

Recommend £40 on RCB to win his Thursday 3 ball with Baldy at 5/4. Really super price.

Market   Selection   Price   Hcp
1st Round 3 Balls - The Open Championship 2017
15.21 S.Hend/R.Cabrera-Bello/B.Watson
   Rafa Cabrera-Bello   5/4   
Total stake   40.00
Estimated return   90.00
Full stake   40.00
Full estimated return   90.00
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« Reply #129122 on: July 19, 2017, 08:41:24 AM »

I quite like Patrick Reed this week; T20 and T12 in his last two Opens and showing some signs of a return to form with a T13 in this year's US Open.

Recommend £10 EW Patrick(Bond Villain)Reed @80/1.

£10.00 Single
Market   Selection   Price   Hcp
Outright - The Open Championship 2017
Outright
EW 1/4 1,2,3,4,5,6   Patrick Reed   80/1   
Total stake   £ 20.00
Estimated return   £ 1,020.00
Full stake   £ 20.00
Full estimated return   £ 1,020.00
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« Reply #129123 on: July 19, 2017, 08:48:52 AM »

I wrote this last year and suggested a bet for the winning main event hand to be a pocket pair at 7/1.
http://blondepoker.com/forum/index.php?topic=67250.0

"I've gone through the stats of winning hole cards from Wikipedia from no limit holdem tournaments where it shows the winning hand. I've excluded mixed games/Pot Limit/Limit and ante up.

Here is my data: (pocket pairs/total tournaments)

WSOP Mains 13/44
12/35 WSOP 2016
9/34 WSOP 2015
5/33 WSOP 2014
6/36 WSOP 2013
10/45 EPT first five seasons (doesn't show hole cards on wikipedia after that)
16/38 WSOPE and Australia all time

Total 71/265 tournies where the winning hand was a pocket pair."


This year at WSOP I've just done a quick count of the NLH tournaments and winning hands at WSOP and I have got 11/40, a similar ratio. Giving us 82/306 once I've added last years ME too.

Again it is priced up at 7/1 with Choral in their WSOP section and I've bet again because I think it is value.

What do people think?

Agree with you Phil , Corals office junior prices again


Any Two Unsuited, Unpaired Cards   1/2
    
Any Two Suited Cards                     2/1
    
Any Pocket Pair                              7/1


In a heads up match its likely to be an all in pre flop scenario especially with a short stack and in that case the pocket pair is a flip . of course it could be pair versus pair or AK V AQ

If i was betting to Corals margins and based on my experience I would have it

Any Two Unsuited, Unpaired Cards   4/7
  
Any Pocket Pair                              7/4

Any Two Suited Cards                      7/1
    
Hence 7 -1 is too big  imo  , calling Doobs


Edit  7 - 1 still there on this market Rich......  25-1 & 33-1 on individual market gone

http://sports.coral.co.uk//?action=AddSelection&ev_oc_id=578861428&id=N&member=incomeaccess&profile=1sbxml0000&creferer=BTAG:a_554b_2066&seo_uri=/poker-events/world-series-of-poker/2017-world-series-of-poker-7462103.html
    

    

    
« Last Edit: July 19, 2017, 08:52:37 AM by FUN4FRASER » Logged
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« Reply #129124 on: July 19, 2017, 08:52:20 AM »

thanks Fraser

i would rather chop both arms off and sit in a vat of acid than go direct to the coral website, last debugged around 2002, but i will have a go
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« Reply #129125 on: July 19, 2017, 09:13:09 AM »

Any Pocket Pair7/12017 World Series of Poker - 21/07/2017
Stake £10.00
Estimated Return:£80.00
Total Stake: £10.00
Potential Return: £80.00

sent to trader for review

you can't be too careful

still pending....

no, offered £3.60 at 7-1

(unrestricted account)

i tried
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« Reply #129126 on: July 19, 2017, 09:26:43 AM »

Any Pocket pair into 9/2 on Choral, still worth a bet?
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« Reply #129127 on: July 19, 2017, 09:32:28 AM »

Haha, good old Coral.

Hard to split Coral, Betway, Sky, VC, 365 and Paddy Power these days when it comes to be utterly tez.

Have £40 on Plymouth to beat Posh on the opening day. General 5-2 fine if we can't get the 11-4 with Sporting. More on why in due course.
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« Reply #129128 on: July 19, 2017, 09:40:12 AM »

Any Pocket pair into 9/2 on Choral, still worth a bet?

My data makes it a bit less than 3/1 but only 300 odd tournies so there is a margin of error there. Not really worth hunting for more data for one bet a year. Quite a big difference in that price 7/1 to 9/2 and I think I'd leave it at that price I guess.
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« Reply #129129 on: July 19, 2017, 09:40:12 AM »


Plymouth Peterborough v Plymouth Winner
11/4
Total Stake: £40.00
Total Returns: £150.00
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« Reply #129130 on: July 19, 2017, 09:42:32 AM »

Haha, good old Coral.

Hard to split Coral, Betway, Sky, VC, 365 and Paddy Power these days when it comes to be utterly tez.

Have £40 on Plymouth to beat Posh on the opening day. General 5-2 fine if we can't get the 11-4 with Sporting. More on why in due course.

Nothing wrong with companies offering 33/1 about 14/1 chances. 

Sitting here hoping the ban hammer isn't going to fall.
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Most of the bets placed so far seem more like hopeful punts rather than value spots
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« Reply #129131 on: July 19, 2017, 09:53:10 AM »

Any love for Palace to top the table at the end of August at 75/1 (bfsb)?

Huddersfield (h)
Liverpool (a)
Swansea (h)

The obvious threat is Liverpool, but they've had some handy results against them in recent years and with a new manager and a handy squad, you never know?

Mega longshot, appreciated...
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« Reply #129132 on: July 19, 2017, 09:58:54 AM »

WSOP " Sorry, this market has been suspended " Coral

let me know if it goes back up please

Back up. Sinclair into 18/1, Ott 25/1.
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« Reply #129133 on: July 19, 2017, 10:19:01 AM »

WSOP " Sorry, this market has been suspended " Coral

let me know if it goes back up please

Back up. Sinclair into 18/1, Ott 25/1.

Pokershares will let you back Ott not to win at 1.07 which is about 1/14 if I understand their odds correctly.  Someone also looking to back Ott at 23/1 on betfair.  Suspect the 14/1 buy price on the exchange is likely closer to correct than the lay price.  So Ott must still be a bet, and Sinclair is getting more borderline.  Think you still get +ev on both.
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« Reply #129134 on: July 19, 2017, 10:29:33 AM »

Haha, good old Coral.

Hard to split Coral, Betway, Sky, VC, 365 and Paddy Power these days when it comes to be utterly tez.

Have £40 on Plymouth to beat Posh on the opening day. General 5-2 fine if we can't get the 11-4 with Sporting. More on why in due course.

Nothing wrong with companies offering 33/1 about 14/1 chances. 

Sitting here hoping the ban hammer isn't going to fall.

Corals have lost touch with reality , part of me wants to say great when you get on a mistake but generally  its hard work  . Im not sure who to blame   the lol traders or directors  ? either way they seem clueless.

On The WSOP its quite interesting that Corals and Ladbrokes prices are now identical ... coincidence  ?  no chance  ! , even though I appreciate its the same generic formula every year for card odds & red or black etc it does make me wonder how these "multi million " betting companies are structured 

https://sports.ladbrokes.com/en-gb/betting/poker/nternational/world-series-of-poker/2017-world-series-of-poker/225341410/
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