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Author Topic: Tips for Tikay  (Read 13329612 times)
TightEnd
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« Reply #131265 on: December 17, 2017, 11:13:55 AM »

Carolina v Green Bay

A lovely looking line for a player in this one.

Green Bay have Aaron Rodgers back. Not sure if this has been mentioned, but you heard it here first...

The market has gone a bit mad about that and a player the team would have rested if they were out of contention is now playing in the hope they can sneak into the playoffs. All a bit silly but he might well have a good game and prove the doubters wrong.

Carolina will run the ball a lot tonight. Some of that will come through Cam Newton keeping it. But they also should be throwing against a pretty weak secondary. The safest pair of hands in the team is tight end Greg Olsen.

His receiving yard line is as low as 35.5 with FredBet. He should be a mismatch but might not get the targets to get big yards. I'd have the line in the low fifties. Game script will be relevant, but you can't nurse a small lead against Rodgers, fit or not. It's like holding a 1-0 lead into Fergie Time. We all know how this ends.

On paper, Green Bay look good against the position, but they've not played the biggest players and their weakness against wide receivers has occupied opponents' playcalling more obviously. Olsen has had foot issues but it's a game he should still get 6-8 targets in and 36 is a low bar. 

 Click to see full-size image.


Recommend £44 @ 10/11 with FredBet on Greg Olsen OVER 35.5 receiving yards.


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« Reply #131266 on: December 17, 2017, 11:26:45 AM »

Couple of goals for Sterling yesterday, though had he been a bit more composed he would've had 5, and City would've had 9. Keeps him firmly in the mix for a top 4 spot in the scorer charts.

I think Salah is gonna be tough to dislodge, so that leaves Aguero, Kane, Sterling, Morata, Lukaku, Jesus, Lacazette etc scrapping for the 3 other places. None of the mentioned players are pulling up too many trees currently so I'm quietly confident for Sterling to last the distance....
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« Reply #131267 on: December 17, 2017, 03:12:50 PM »

I've got a few on Ladbrokes for tonight which I don't think is very good for the thread, but they seem to be best priced on some anytime scorers for the first time ever, also my best bet on the NFL for tonight is only available on Paddypower, which again I know isn't much use for the thread.

Dede Westbrook o48.5 receiving yards is my NAP for the day, he's really helped their offence since he got fit and has increased his yardage every week since he got into the side - 35,41,78,81 yards. He faces a pretty soft Texans defence this week in a Jaguars team missing their best offensive player in Leonard Fournette who is out with a quad injury - Dede Westbrook - o48.5 rec. yard - 5/6 (PP)

The Ladbrokes ones -

Jay Ajayi anytime - I'm not sure whether you would have heard, but apparently he was born in London?! Well, he's 11/5 to score anytime on Ladbrokes. The Eagles are one of the best balanced teams in the league, but they lost their QB last week which means Nick Foles is in, he's an adequate replacement, but I still think they'll use their run game a little more and Ajayi had his most carries of the season for the Eagles, he's also been talked up by his HC this week, to get over 2/1 on him is great imo - Jay Ajayi anytime TD - 11/5 (Ladbrokes)

Delanie Walker anytime - The Titans are on the road in San Fran this week, they added another gu to IR this week as they do on a seemingly weekly basis. They have lost most of their secondary, especially Tartt who was their main Tight end defender - Walker is the favourite target of QB Marcus Mariota and while they haven't played well this year, he has been using him a lot. You can get 2/1 on him at Ladbrokes - Delanie Walker anytime - 2/1 15/8 is a go on Betfair as well as 19/10 on Unibet if you can get on either of them.

Apologies for the fact they're a little useless for the thread, but might be good for some others - However every time I post some on here they fail, so I've probably just lost myself a considerable amount of money by posting them!


One that I know you will be able to get on is OVER 41.5 points in the Ravens vs Browns game - The Ravens have somehow found an offence! They've scored 20 or more points in their last 6 games, with 39 or more in 3 of them! They also conceded a lot last week, admittedly against a much better team than the Browns, but without Jimmy Smith in the secondary they could be susceptible to big plays and with Josh Gordon back the Browns have the ability to break those big plays. It's a low total which I think is relying on early season stats.

Recommend £30 on that at 10/11 in all good suppliers, and even the crap ones

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« Reply #131268 on: December 17, 2017, 03:52:49 PM »

Delph 2/1 to make the England WC squad. In incred form, easily England's best left back at the moment, and is equally adept in midfield too.

2 things to consider; his injury record, and the chance of City signing a LB in January. The former is a concern, though he's had a great run of games for us this season so hopefully regular game time is keeping him fit and sharp. The latter doesn't bother me too much. January is a tough window to buy 'properly', and even if we did get extra cover in at LB it would then allow Delph to move into midfield when we want to rest Fernandinho. Mendy is recovering well but I don't think we'll see him in action this season, bar maybe the odd runout towards the end, so Delph isn't going to find himself suddenly benched anytime soon.

Competition is Rose and Bertrand (discounting Shaw for obvious reasons). Rose looked woeful yesterday but appreciate he's only just returned from a long layoff. Bertrand is good, but lacks Delph's versatility, and is playing in a pretty ordinary Saints team, whereas Delph is putting in eye catching performances in a team full of eye catching performances.

Think 2/1 is rather big for a player who will, barring injury, be on the plane in my opinion. Any thoughts?

https://www.oddschecker.com/football/football-specials/england/to-make-england-world-cup-2018-squad



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« Reply #131269 on: December 17, 2017, 03:52:53 PM »

Niners -2.5 is lovely IMO.

Tennessee are playing their 4th away game in 5. They were hapless last week and have embarrassed those of us who thought they'd be sneaky good this season. The 49ers play their 4th home game in 6.
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« Reply #131270 on: December 17, 2017, 04:10:39 PM »

Niners -2.5 is lovely IMO.

Tennessee are playing their 4th away game in 5. They were hapless last week and have embarrassed those of us who thought they'd be sneaky good this season. The 49ers play their 4th home game in 6.


Agree with that, seems weird taking a 2 win side over a playoff chasing teams, but as someone said on a podcast (Evan silva I think) its essentially a 2-0 team vs an 8-5 team
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« Reply #131271 on: December 17, 2017, 07:31:09 PM »

A bit leftfield, but motorcycle news is campaigning to get Johnathan Rea to SPOTY.  Bob Nudd allegedly won it back in the day when some angling paper did this and this looks a weak year.

betfair has a bit available at 100/1 and up.  I have enough on.  obv not nailed on, but I have had worse 100/1 bets.

he is a three time world superbike champ, for those going who?
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Most of the bets placed so far seem more like hopeful punts rather than value spots
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« Reply #131272 on: December 17, 2017, 07:42:03 PM »

Carolina v Green Bay

A lovely looking line for a player in this one.

Green Bay have Aaron Rodgers back. Not sure if this has been mentioned, but you heard it here first...

The market has gone a bit mad about that and a player the team would have rested if they were out of contention is now playing in the hope they can sneak into the playoffs. All a bit silly but he might well have a good game and prove the doubters wrong.

Carolina will run the ball a lot tonight. Some of that will come through Cam Newton keeping it. But they also should be throwing against a pretty weak secondary. The safest pair of hands in the team is tight end Greg Olsen.

His receiving yard line is as low as 35.5 with FredBet. He should be a mismatch but might not get the targets to get big yards. I'd have the line in the low fifties. Game script will be relevant, but you can't nurse a small lead against Rodgers, fit or not. It's like holding a 1-0 lead into Fergie Time. We all know how this ends.

On paper, Green Bay look good against the position, but they've not played the biggest players and their weakness against wide receivers has occupied opponents' playcalling more obviously. Olsen has had foot issues but it's a game he should still get 6-8 targets in and 36 is a low bar. 

 Click to see full-size image.


Recommend £44 @ 10/11 with FredBet on Greg Olsen OVER 35.5 receiving yards.


27 yards at half time.

Tikay, keep your comments to yourself please.
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« Reply #131273 on: December 17, 2017, 07:47:41 PM »

Coverage bust. Greg Olsen wide open for 30-yard TD catch.
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« Reply #131274 on: December 17, 2017, 07:47:56 PM »

Scrap that. Another catch and we are up to 57.

Tikay, see if you can bok Joshua for SPOTY now.

Thanks.
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« Reply #131275 on: December 17, 2017, 07:49:34 PM »

Great work Tal, gotta admit wasn't too confident on it. But spot on!
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« Reply #131276 on: December 17, 2017, 07:59:47 PM »

do we get bonus money when Olsen doubles the o/u line?  Grin

Top tipping Tal.  thumbs up
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« Reply #131277 on: December 17, 2017, 08:03:46 PM »

What's Mo doing in Jo Konta's house?
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« Reply #131278 on: December 17, 2017, 08:14:45 PM »

In SPOTY betting on Betfair, £610,775 of £694,119 matched so far (88% of all money) is on massive odds-on favourite Anthony Joshua. At the other extreme, £12 has been matched on Elise Christie.
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« Reply #131279 on: December 17, 2017, 08:38:38 PM »

A bit leftfield, but motorcycle news is campaigning to get Johnathan Rea to SPOTY.  Bob Nudd allegedly won it back in the day when some angling paper did this and this looks a weak year.

betfair has a bit available at 100/1 and up.  I have enough on.  obv not nailed on, but I have had worse 100/1 bets.

he is a three time world superbike champ, for those going who?

Doesn’t need many votes to win - probably around 150,000. He’ll get big support from NI where motorcycling is huge.
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