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Betting Tips and Sport Discussion
Tips for Tikay
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Topic: Tips for Tikay (Read 16404631 times)
horseplayer
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Posts: 10314
Re: Tips for Tikay
«
Reply #1515 on:
March 17, 2012, 05:02:19 PM »
sorry that was very poor
feel pretty horrible to be honest that people have lost a lot of money on that
must do better
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tikay
Administrator
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Posts: I am a geek!!
Re: Tips for Tikay
«
Reply #1516 on:
March 17, 2012, 05:03:27 PM »
Quote from: horseplayer on March 17, 2012, 05:02:19 PM
sorry that was very poor
feel pretty horrible to be honest that people have lost a lot of money on that
must do better
None of that on this thread please, we don't want "sorry", except from Chompy, obv.
It's all good.
Send more money.
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MereNovice
Gamesmaster
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Re: Tips for Tikay
«
Reply #1517 on:
March 17, 2012, 05:04:12 PM »
After today's matches:
Pos Team P GD Pts
18 Bradford 36 -4 39
19 Northampton 36 -20 37
20 Barnet 36 -23 37
21 Macclesfield 37 -13 35
22 Plymouth 37 -17 35
23 Hereford 37 -20 35
24 Dag & Red 37 -28 34
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tikay
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Re: Tips for Tikay
«
Reply #1518 on:
March 17, 2012, 05:05:04 PM »
Think the Barnet bet looks a little better now. They lost, & Plymouth & D&R both won.
Which is good for us. I think.
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Marky147
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Re: Tips for Tikay
«
Reply #1519 on:
March 17, 2012, 05:07:21 PM »
Quote from: tikay on March 17, 2012, 05:05:04 PM
Think the Barnet bet looks a little better now. They lost, & Plymouth & D&R both won.
Which is good for us. I think.
Big game Tuesday when Barnet play Dag & Redbridge at home
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tikay
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Re: Tips for Tikay
«
Reply #1520 on:
March 17, 2012, 05:08:00 PM »
Tx Vince. Still a sweat.
I was up late today, & flat to the boards up here in Walsall, (4 of my players made Day 2, 3 still in), so again, I missed the Daily Update, thats 3 days in a row now.
Be a bit of a nigtmare catching up, but I'll sort it tomorrow, & we'll be back on track. Then MereGeek can correct my numbers.
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horseplayer
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Re: Tips for Tikay
«
Reply #1521 on:
March 17, 2012, 05:11:40 PM »
fwiw i have also backed pugnacity in the 5.20 newcastle feel it is a fair bit overpriced (about 22-1 at moment) trainer in form ground to soft last time on re appearance and 7lbs claimer look both good value for it and brings horse down to similar mark as when winning this time last year...
nowere near as strong as the one just now which isnt saying much
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The Camel
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Re: Tips for Tikay
«
Reply #1522 on:
March 17, 2012, 05:14:04 PM »
Quote from: Marky147 on March 17, 2012, 05:07:21 PM
Quote from: tikay on March 17, 2012, 05:05:04 PM
Think the Barnet bet looks a little better now. They lost, & Plymouth & D&R both won.
Which is good for us. I think.
Big game Tuesday when Barnet play Dag & Redbridge at home
Followed by Macclesfield away.
Fail towin either of those and Barnet are in deep doo doo.
Their next four games:
Home to Torquay (currently 2nd)
Home to Swindon (top)
Away to Cheltenham (5th)
Home to Crawley (6th)
Yum yum.
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"Keith The Camel, a true champion!" - Brent Horner 30th December 2012
"I dont think you're a wanker Keith" David Nicholson 4th March 2013
tikay
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Re: Tips for Tikay
«
Reply #1523 on:
March 17, 2012, 05:16:47 PM »
Quote from: horseplayer on March 17, 2012, 05:11:40 PM
fwiw i have also backed pugnacity in the 5.20 newcastle feel it is a fair bit overpriced (about 22-1 at moment) trainer in form ground to soft last time on re appearance and 7lbs claimer look both good value for it and brings horse down to similar mark as when winning this time last year...
nowere near as strong as the one just now which isnt saying much
So have I.
And NO SORRIES, please.
(And no shouting at me, Camel - we need to get horseplayer a winner).
This is the getting out stakes. Or the do our bollox stakes. I don't have time to go price-hunting right now, & I seem to have a ton of money in Bet Victor. Speed ftw.
ON, £10 EW
You have successfully placed 1 bet(s)
Total possible returns 270.00
BET RECEIPT Single Selections
NEWCASTLE 17:20
PUGNACITY (EW)
(Horse Racing Outright)
Odds: 20/1
Stake: 20.00
Possible Return: 270.00
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(copyright Anthony James Kendall, 2016).
tikay
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Re: Tips for Tikay
«
Reply #1524 on:
March 17, 2012, 05:17:23 PM »
Quote from: The Camel on March 17, 2012, 05:14:04 PM
Quote from: Marky147 on March 17, 2012, 05:07:21 PM
Quote from: tikay on March 17, 2012, 05:05:04 PM
Think the Barnet bet looks a little better now. They lost, & Plymouth & D&R both won.
Which is good for us. I think.
Big game Tuesday when Barnet play Dag & Redbridge at home
Followed by Macclesfield away.
Fail towin either of those and Barnet are in deep doo doo.
Their next four games:
Home to Torquay (currently 2nd)
Home to Swindon (top)
Away to Cheltenham (5th)
Home to Crawley (6th)
Yum yum.
Worth investing a little more, then?
Logged
All details of the 2016 Vegas Staking Adventure can be found via this link -
http://bit.ly/1pdQZDY
(copyright Anthony James Kendall, 2016).
bobby1
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Posts: 9573
Re: Tips for Tikay
«
Reply #1525 on:
March 17, 2012, 05:23:37 PM »
Quote from: RickBFA on March 17, 2012, 03:54:22 PM
Quote from: bobby1 on March 17, 2012, 03:04:01 PM
Quote from: adnmdv on March 17, 2012, 12:48:29 PM
You are looking at the relative probabilities of 1 and 2, ignoring the draw completely. If two teams are both the same % to win, the DNB price is evens both sides. If one side is 50% to win and the other 30%, you get 5/8 on the first, 8/3 on the other.
The easiest way to convert match prices into draw no bet or level ball prices to give you two way tradeable prices as a layer is as follows using today's Fulham v Swansea game.
match prices on Betfair to about 100.2%
Fulham 1.81
Draw 3.85
Swansea 5.3
Take 1 point off the draw price to give you 2.85, times that by the price of the home team, which is 1.81, then divide that by the full draw price , which is 3.85.
Gives you 1.34 ish Fulham draw no bet
Using the draw minus 1 point price of 2.85, times the Swansea price of 5.3 divided by the full draw price of 3.85.
Gives you a price of 3.92 Swansea draw no bet. Obviously as a layer you would take a little off those to make money, which leads to the betfair price in the draw no bet market of
1.33 Fulham draw no bet
3.9 Swansea draw no bet
To get bang on 100% book you should break down the BF match price into a 100% book but to be honest it is so near anyway it doesn't matter.
Using that method at the Wigan price on the off gives Fraser's bet as 2.04 draw no bet, so 2.1 was value.
cheers
Thanks for posting this I'll use it as a guide. I'm on Swansea at 11/4 DNB
no probs mate and well done with the Swansea bet.
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The Camel
Hero Member
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Under my tree, being a troll.
Re: Tips for Tikay
«
Reply #1526 on:
March 17, 2012, 05:39:10 PM »
Quote from: tikay on March 17, 2012, 05:17:23 PM
Quote from: The Camel on March 17, 2012, 05:14:04 PM
Quote from: Marky147 on March 17, 2012, 05:07:21 PM
Quote from: tikay on March 17, 2012, 05:05:04 PM
Think the Barnet bet looks a little better now. They lost, & Plymouth & D&R both won.
Which is good for us. I think.
Big game Tuesday when Barnet play Dag & Redbridge at home
Followed by Macclesfield away.
Fail towin either of those and Barnet are in deep doo doo.
Their next four games:
Home to Torquay (currently 2nd)
Home to Swindon (top)
Away to Cheltenham (5th)
Home to Crawley (6th)
Yum yum.
Worth investing a little more, then?
Depends on the price obv.
I would play now at 5/1. Maybe 9/2
Doubt it will be available.
If it isn't, wait and see what happens next two games. Dagenham are shocking too, but they won today, so hopefully will be going into the game with a little confidence.
Come on you Daggers!
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Congratulations to the 2012 League Champion - Stapleton Atheists
"Keith The Camel, a true champion!" - Brent Horner 30th December 2012
"I dont think you're a wanker Keith" David Nicholson 4th March 2013
Royal Flush
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Offline
Posts: 22690
Booooccccceeeeeee
Re: Tips for Tikay
«
Reply #1527 on:
March 18, 2012, 12:33:30 AM »
Quote from: horseplayer on March 17, 2012, 05:02:19 PM
sorry that was very poor
feel pretty horrible to be honest that people have lost a lot of money on that
must do better
It's all good mate, was found money
Just tilt it went off so short and now VC will think i'm a shark given i was already up on them!
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c4ught
Sr. Member
Offline
Posts: 365
Re: Tips for Tikay
«
Reply #1528 on:
March 18, 2012, 09:16:38 AM »
Quote from: The Camel on March 17, 2012, 05:39:10 PM
Quote from: tikay on March 17, 2012, 05:17:23 PM
Quote from: The Camel on March 17, 2012, 05:14:04 PM
Quote from: Marky147 on March 17, 2012, 05:07:21 PM
Quote from: tikay on March 17, 2012, 05:05:04 PM
Think the Barnet bet looks a little better now. They lost, & Plymouth & D&R both won.
Which is good for us. I think.
Big game Tuesday when Barnet play Dag & Redbridge at home
Followed by Macclesfield away.
Fail towin either of those and Barnet are in deep doo doo.
Their next four games:
Home to Torquay (currently 2nd)
Home to Swindon (top)
Away to Cheltenham (5th)
Home to Crawley (6th)
Yum yum.
Worth investing a little more, then?
Depends on the price obv.
I would play now at 5/1. Maybe 9/2
Doubt it will be available.
If it isn't, wait and see what happens next two games. Dagenham are shocking too, but they won today, so hopefully will be going into the game with a little confidence.
Come on you Daggers!
11/2 available at betvictor btw.
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tikay
Administrator
Hero Member
Offline
Posts: I am a geek!!
Re: Tips for Tikay
«
Reply #1529 on:
March 18, 2012, 09:43:51 AM »
Quote from: Lewis on March 18, 2012, 09:16:38 AM
Quote from: The Camel on March 17, 2012, 05:39:10 PM
Quote from: tikay on March 17, 2012, 05:17:23 PM
Quote from: The Camel on March 17, 2012, 05:14:04 PM
Quote from: Marky147 on March 17, 2012, 05:07:21 PM
Quote from: tikay on March 17, 2012, 05:05:04 PM
Think the Barnet bet looks a little better now. They lost, & Plymouth & D&R both won.
Which is good for us. I think.
Big game Tuesday when Barnet play Dag & Redbridge at home
Followed by Macclesfield away.
Fail towin either of those and Barnet are in deep doo doo.
Their next four games:
Home to Torquay (currently 2nd)
Home to Swindon (top)
Away to Cheltenham (5th)
Home to Crawley (6th)
Yum yum.
Worth investing a little more, then?
Depends on the price obv.
I would play now at 5/1. Maybe 9/2
Doubt it will be available.
If it isn't, wait and see what happens next two games. Dagenham are shocking too, but they won today, so hopefully will be going into the game with a little confidence.
Come on you Daggers!
11/2 available at betvictor btw.
Thanks Lewis.
Well Camel said it depends on the price, & is was play @ "5/1, maybe 9/2", so that looks like a good price. He's probably still in bed, & the price won't last too long, so.....
Time to have my first press.
ON, £50, BetVictor
You have successfully placed 1 bet(s)
Total possible returns 325.00
BET RECEIPT Single Selections
To Be Relegated
Barnet
(To Be Relegated - Outright)
Odds: 11/2
Stake: 50.00
Possible Return: 325.00
Logged
All details of the 2016 Vegas Staking Adventure can be found via this link -
http://bit.ly/1pdQZDY
(copyright Anthony James Kendall, 2016).
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