Tips for Tikay

[bobby1]

Reading those bad pricing stories make me sigh I wasn't able to get into betting a few years earlier! I've already seen myself markets get loads harder, those past days sound like just free money times though. Supposedly firms were also doing 1/2 odds ew goalscorers for a while as well, which they obviously lost loads at! It's been mentioned in other threads before, but I wonder (not knowing myself how it was 'back then') how much Betfair was a game-changer, in terms of showing bookies clearly when and where their own prices were horribly off (not that it stops them occasionally these days...)

Betfair was absolutely the worst thing that happened to professional punters ever.

Could make a comfortable living paying 10% tax on all bets back then.

And never had an account closed.

Now I make a marginal living, and every bookmaker in the world wants to close me down.

Hear this a lot and how Betfair was absolutely the worst thing that happened to bookmakers ever. Can believe the latter but, as punters, it was either the best or the worst.

*Also means one can back Cloudy Lane at 14/1 and trade out at around 5/1 for a freebie. Assume this was done by all ante-post bettors.

For losing punters, betfair was (and is) brilliant.

Also for poor pricing and poor traders too. You can now bet an event for your firm without anyone having any knowledge of the event. If a punter shows he has a clue, you shut him instead of making sure your market maker improves his knowledge of the event.

[The Camel]

Also, laying the favourite means something totally different over here to theee USA and led to much confusion recently.

I was asked to have a look at some of the script in this upcoming film http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lay_the_Favorite to see if it was true to life for a gambler.

I was totally bewildered by some of it until it dawned on me "laying the favourite" means betting an odds on shot in the USA!

[bobby1]

Reading those bad pricing stories make me sigh I wasn't able to get into betting a few years earlier! I've already seen myself markets get loads harder, those past days sound like just free money times though. Supposedly firms were also doing 1/2 odds ew goalscorers for a while as well, which they obviously lost loads at! It's been mentioned in other threads before, but I wonder (not knowing myself how it was 'back then') how much Betfair was a game-changer, in terms of showing bookies clearly when and where their own prices were horribly off (not that it stops them occasionally these days...)

Betfair was absolutely the worst thing that happened to professional punters ever.

Could make a comfortable living paying 10% tax on all bets back then.

And never had an account closed.

Now I make a marginal living, and every bookmaker in the world wants to close me down.

Hear this a lot and how Betfair was absolutely the worst thing that happened to bookmakers ever. Can believe the latter but, as punters, it was either the best or the worst.

*Also means one can back Cloudy Lane at 14/1 and trade out at around 5/1 for a freebie. Assume this was done by all ante-post bettors.

It is an interesting element that Betfair has made available to everyone but this has only made getting on with the books harder. If you backed Cloudy Lane at 14/1 with a firm and laid at 5/1 on BF then you still run the risk of getting shut by the books if you consistently beat the price, you don't even have to be winning with them. Even if you are not laying it back the BF market is now used as a guide to how shrewd your bet was, too many and you are restricted.

[redarmi]

Also, laying the favourite means something totally different over here to theee USA and led to much confusion recently.

I was asked to have a look at some of the script in this upcoming film http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lay_the_Favorite to see if it was true to life for a gambler.

I was totally bewildered by some of it until it dawned on me "laying the favourite" means betting an odds on shot in the USA!

I have read that book.  Do you happen to know who it is she is working for there??

[MereNovice]

SA beat NZ before tea on the 3rd day of the 2nd test.
When it comes to predictions I'm a bit like Martin Peters - a man ahead of his time.

[the sicilian]

One from left field just for the name alone...Go Ahead Eagles v Willem II  in the Dutch Eerste Divisie over 2.5 goals..

All about research you know

Random punt comes good

[FUN4FRASER]

Stopped offering my advice as  generally too much aggro on here, however for the good of the greater cause this  this bet stands out as great value to me

Wigan have now got their best 11 players fit and this was evident v Norwich last week

They are their fighting for their premiership survival whereas WBA are safe ...so Wigan to beat WBA  @ 11 -10  draw no bet at WilliamHills

http://www.oddschecker.com/football/english/premier-league/wigan-v-west-brom/draw-no-bet

My first contribution to this thread so £100 Tony

[tikay]

, however for the good of the greater cause this  this bet stands out as great value to me

Wigan have now got their best 11 players fit and this was evident v Norwich last week

They are their fighting for their premiership survival whereas WBA are safe ...so Wigan to beat WBA  @ 11 -10  draw no bet at WilliamHills

http://www.oddschecker.com/football/english/premier-league/wigan-v-west-brom/draw-no-bet

My first contribution to this thread so £100 Tony

Morning Fraser.

I will get on that bet shortly, & confirm accordingly, thank you.

At the risk of diverting what has become, somehow, a tremendous source of fun, entertainment, & education, for everyone, can I quickly address this please.....

Stopped offering my advice as  generally too much aggro on here

I assume you mean blonde generally, rather than this thread, which has reached 100 pages without a single bit of aggro, flaming, or abuse. Just read the last 3 or 4 pages from yesterday, it is an incredible source of betting education & information, it's almost good enough to turn into a book.

blonde generally? Yeah, sometimes it does get a bit nasty, but it is VERY rare these days. I started a thread to encourage Neil Channing to post more here, & that went horribly wrong, like you would not believe, but that was a very, very, rare exception these days.

And yes, I know you got a bit of flak on one particular thread, & I'm truly sorry about that.

You are too good a bloke, Member, poster, & tipster to be lost to blonde.

Do me a favour please. Stick to this thread for a wee while, give it a chance, & then move onto the other threads as & when you are ready, failing which, just stay in this thread. It's nice here, honest.

Agreed? Agreed!

By the bye, any profits on this thread will be re-circulated onto the blondes on this thread, somehow, & the winnings (if any) will be donated somehow, & well have some fun sweats together, put someone in a decent Tourney, buy a greyhound, or whatever.

Top man.

[tikay]

Stopped offering my advice as  generally too much aggro on here, however for the good of the greater cause this  this bet stands out as great value to me

Wigan have now got their best 11 players fit and this was evident v Norwich last week

They are their fighting for their premiership survival whereas WBA are safe ...so Wigan to beat WBA  @ 11 -10  draw no bet at WilliamHills

http://www.oddschecker.com/football/english/premier-league/wigan-v-west-brom/draw-no-bet

My first contribution to this thread so £100 Tony

ON, for £100, Wm Hill.

[tikay]

Can someone explain the maths to me, please, of a football bet such as Frasers.

We have 11/10 "DRAW NO BET".

How would that equate if the draw were included?

How do you do the maths?

Seems we are getting 11/10 on the win, & the money back on the draw. Only a WBA win costs us.

Good, surely? (Forget this particular match, it is not relevant).

[adnmdv]

It's not better nor worse than any other bet as the refund is obv taken into account by the odds. You just take the standard 1x2 prices remove the x and scale to get to 100% total.

[tikay]

It's not better nor worse than any other bet as the refund is obv taken into account by the odds. You just take the standard 1x2 prices remove the x and scale to get to 100% total.

Umm, yes, quite so.  But any chance you could translate that into Mugs language, please? There are, ahem, one or two on here. Not me, I'm thinking of Mere, & Chompy, obv.

[MereNovice]

It's not better nor worse than any other bet as the refund is obv taken into account by the odds. You just take the standard 1x2 prices remove the x and scale to get to 100% total.

Umm, yes, quite so.  But any chance you could translate that into Mugs language, please? There are, ahem, one or two on here. Not me, I'm thinking of Mere, & Chompy, obv.

I'll write out some nice sums for you at half-time in the rugby, alright?

[adnmdv]

You are looking at the relative probabilities of 1 and 2, ignoring the draw completely. If two teams are both the same % to win, the DNB price is evens both sides. If one side is 50% to win and the other 30%, you get 5/8 on the first, 8/3 on the other.

[horseplayer]

afternoon tikay

got a rare bit of time today and may i suggest a decent eway bet on DOLLAR MICK in the 4.50 at newcastle. Beaten fav last four starts isnt normally a great way in to a bet but this horse looks to me to have been crying out for decent ground since being handicapped. Has gone close here before (traded 1-10 in running) and the breeding goes along with my thinking that good ground will suit.

bet365 are currently laying (well a bit!) at 10-1 with the 8 runners intact this is a very fair eway bet in my opinion.