Tips for Tikay

[Royal Flush]

afternoon tikay

got a rare bit of time today and may i suggest a decent eway bet on DOLLAR MICK in the 4.50 at newcastle. Beaten fav last four starts isnt normally a great way in to a bet but this horse looks to me to have been crying out for decent ground since being handicapped. Has gone close here before (traded 1-10 in running) and the breeding goes along with my thinking that good ground will suit.

bet365 are currently laying (well a bit!) at 10-1 with the 8 runners intact this is a very fair eway bet in my opinion.

Noted Chompy's valid concern, & Rick's BetVictor price, & decided to gamble.


ON, £25 EW with Betvictor


You have successfully placed 1 bet(s)

Total possible returns 380.00

BET RECEIPT Single Selections
NEWCASTLE 16:50
DOLLAR MICK (EW)
(Horse Racing Outright)
Odds:  11/1
Stake:  50.00
Possible Return:  380.00

First time poster in this thread, logged into Victor and found £600 from some NFL bet i had in September ha, anyway had £300ew attempting the mad spinup of found money

[Royal Flush]

Shifted the price as well like a gangster

[millidonk]

First time poster in this thread, logged into Victor and found £600 from some NFL bet i had in September ha, anyway had £300ew attempting the mad spinup of found money

I would be happy if i found £600 in my life savings.. WAL.

[bobby1]

afternoon tikay

got a rare bit of time today and may i suggest a decent eway bet on DOLLAR MICK in the 4.50 at newcastle. Beaten fav last four starts isnt normally a great way in to a bet but this horse looks to me to have been crying out for decent ground since being handicapped. Has gone close here before (traded 1-10 in running) and the breeding goes along with my thinking that good ground will suit.

bet365 are currently laying (well a bit!) at 10-1 with the 8 runners intact this is a very fair eway bet in my opinion.

Noted Chompy's valid concern, & Rick's BetVictor price, & decided to gamble.


ON, £25 EW with Betvictor


You have successfully placed 1 bet(s)

Total possible returns 380.00

BET RECEIPT Single Selections
NEWCASTLE 16:50
DOLLAR MICK (EW)
(Horse Racing Outright)
Odds:  11/1
Stake:  50.00
Possible Return:  380.00

First time poster in this thread, logged into Victor and found £600 from some NFL bet i had in September ha, anyway had £300ew attempting the mad spinup of found money

Love it, I have had to have some myself too now.

[tikay]

Ooh, Flushy has arrived in thread.

Thread about to heat up.

I got 11/1, what price you boys got?

Really would like this one to come in, be great for "horseplayer's" morale.

[RickBFA]

You are looking at the relative probabilities of 1 and 2, ignoring the draw completely. If two teams are both the same % to win, the DNB price is evens both sides. If one side is 50% to win and the other 30%, you get 5/8 on the first, 8/3 on the other.

The easiest way to convert match prices into draw no bet or level ball prices to give you two way tradeable  prices as a layer is as follows using today's Fulham v Swansea game.

match prices on Betfair to about 100.2%
Fulham 1.81
Draw 3.85
Swansea 5.3

Take 1 point off the draw price to give you 2.85, times that by the price of the home team, which is 1.81, then divide that by the full draw price , which is 3.85.

Gives you 1.34 ish Fulham draw no bet

Using the draw minus 1 point price of 2.85, times the Swansea price of 5.3 divided by the full draw price of 3.85.

Gives you a price of 3.92 Swansea draw no bet. Obviously as a layer you would take a little off those to make money, which leads to the betfair price in the draw no bet market of

1.33 Fulham draw no bet
3.9 Swansea draw no bet

To get bang on 100% book you should break down the BF match price into a 100% book but to be honest it is so near anyway it doesn't matter.

Using that method at the Wigan price on the off gives Fraser's bet as 2.04 draw no bet, so 2.1 was value.


cheers

Thanks for posting this I'll use it as a guide. I'm on Swansea at 11/4 DNB

[tikay]

You are looking at the relative probabilities of 1 and 2, ignoring the draw completely. If two teams are both the same % to win, the DNB price is evens both sides. If one side is 50% to win and the other 30%, you get 5/8 on the first, 8/3 on the other.

The easiest way to convert match prices into draw no bet or level ball prices to give you two way tradeable  prices as a layer is as follows using today's Fulham v Swansea game.

match prices on Betfair to about 100.2%
Fulham 1.81
Draw 3.85
Swansea 5.3

Take 1 point off the draw price to give you 2.85, times that by the price of the home team, which is 1.81, then divide that by the full draw price , which is 3.85.

Gives you 1.34 ish Fulham draw no bet

Using the draw minus 1 point price of 2.85, times the Swansea price of 5.3 divided by the full draw price of 3.85.

Gives you a price of 3.92 Swansea draw no bet. Obviously as a layer you would take a little off those to make money, which leads to the betfair price in the draw no bet market of

1.33 Fulham draw no bet
3.9 Swansea draw no bet

To get bang on 100% book you should break down the BF match price into a 100% book but to be honest it is so near anyway it doesn't matter.

Using that method at the Wigan price on the off gives Fraser's bet as 2.04 draw no bet, so 2.1 was value.


cheers

Thanks for posting this I'll use it as a guide. I'm on Swansea at 11/4 DNB

Pretty good stuff eh, Rick?

Loving this thread. Send more money.

[Marky147]

Ooh, Flushy has arrived in thread.

Thread about to heat up.

I got 11/1, what price you boys got?

Really would like this one to come in, be great for "horseplayer's" morale.

I'm on the post Cheltenham chase so would love it to bink too

[RickBFA]

You are looking at the relative probabilities of 1 and 2, ignoring the draw completely. If two teams are both the same % to win, the DNB price is evens both sides. If one side is 50% to win and the other 30%, you get 5/8 on the first, 8/3 on the other.

The easiest way to convert match prices into draw no bet or level ball prices to give you two way tradeable  prices as a layer is as follows using today's Fulham v Swansea game.

match prices on Betfair to about 100.2%
Fulham 1.81
Draw 3.85
Swansea 5.3

Take 1 point off the draw price to give you 2.85, times that by the price of the home team, which is 1.81, then divide that by the full draw price , which is 3.85.

Gives you 1.34 ish Fulham draw no bet

Using the draw minus 1 point price of 2.85, times the Swansea price of 5.3 divided by the full draw price of 3.85.

Gives you a price of 3.92 Swansea draw no bet. Obviously as a layer you would take a little off those to make money, which leads to the betfair price in the draw no bet market of

1.33 Fulham draw no bet
3.9 Swansea draw no bet

To get bang on 100% book you should break down the BF match price into a 100% book but to be honest it is so near anyway it doesn't matter.

Using that method at the Wigan price on the off gives Fraser's bet as 2.04 draw no bet, so 2.1 was value.


cheers

Thanks for posting this I'll use it as a guide. I'm on Swansea at 11/4 DNB

Pretty good stuff eh, Rick?

Loving this thread. Send more money.

Excellent.

I was going to recommend Oxford at 13/10 but bottled it!

That Barnet bet looking healthier - they are 2-0 down with Plymouth and D&R winning.

[tikay]

Thanks Rick, would be neat to see Barnet get thumped today, if the other two get home.

Camellllllllllllllllllllllll

[Marky147]

Thanks Rick, would be neat to see Barnet get thumped today, if the other two get home.

Camellllllllllllllllllllllll

We got unlucky last week as well so I was told, Barnet were losing along with other results going our way and then they pulled it out of the bag to snatch victory.

[tikay]

The Dollar Mick tip by Horseplayer - looks like we got the 8 runners, & our 11/1 shot is currently on offer at 9/2!

If only I knew how to green out, though don't tell Camel.

Whatever happens horseplayer, we got great value, well done.

[The Camel]

afternoon tikay

got a rare bit of time today and may i suggest a decent eway bet on DOLLAR MICK in the 4.50 at newcastle. Beaten fav last four starts isnt normally a great way in to a bet but this horse looks to me to have been crying out for decent ground since being handicapped. Has gone close here before (traded 1-10 in running) and the breeding goes along with my thinking that good ground will suit.

bet365 are currently laying (well a bit!) at 10-1 with the 8 runners intact this is a very fair eway bet in my opinion.

Noted Chompy's valid concern, & Rick's BetVictor price, & decided to gamble.


ON, £25 EW with Betvictor


You have successfully placed 1 bet(s)

Total possible returns 380.00

BET RECEIPT Single Selections
NEWCASTLE 16:50
DOLLAR MICK (EW)
(Horse Racing Outright)
Odds:  11/1
Stake:  50.00
Possible Return:  380.00

First time poster in this thread, logged into Victor and found £600 from some NFL bet i had in September ha, anyway had £300ew attempting the mad spinup of found money

SP 9/2.

If this wins or even places, you are 4/11 to have your account closed.

8/11 even if it blows out!

[tikay]

Oooooh!

Unlucky, horseplayer.

No complaints here mate.

[tikay]

Stopped offering my advice as  generally too much aggro on here, however for the good of the greater cause this  this bet stands out as great value to me

Wigan have now got their best 11 players fit and this was evident v Norwich last week

They are their fighting for their premiership survival whereas WBA are safe ...so Wigan to beat WBA  @ 11 -10  draw no bet at WilliamHills

http://www.oddschecker.com/football/english/premier-league/wigan-v-west-brom/draw-no-bet

My first contribution to this thread so £100 Tony

1-1, so we get our £100 back, yeah?

More like that please Fraser, keep them coming.