Tips for Tikay

[bobby1]

I was serious for the bet, the added piece of info that Monday and Tuesdays are more likely for C sections added to the fact that Monday July 1st would be on Diana's birthday probably makes Monday the slight fav imo.

My daughter was born on a Wednesday by natural birth. Hope this helps.

Thanks, are you an iconic figure in UK history and the parent of one of parents to be? :-)

It's a natural 6/1 if you believe there are no biases, there could be biases. I would make it about 9/2 ish

[bobby1]

Does anyone think Olympiakos are very short now?

I can see a decent team in there but probably have to allow for 2-3 young lads in at this stage. At the end of the day Arsenal are the side that need a result too.

Arsenal Squad: Szczesny, Vermaelen, Rosicky, Oxlade-Chamberlain, Ramsey, Squillaci, Coquelin, Arshavin, Jenkinson, Gervinho, Chamakh, Angha, Ansah, Hajrovic, Meade, Monteiro, Shea, Akpom

Olympiakos already qualified for the Europa league and have a big game away at Pana this weekend.

I think they are very very short- flip side is Arsenals dreadful record when already qualified and the fact that there is arguably not as much difference between coming first and second in your group this year as normal. Must always be correct to wade in against the tide at this point tho

cheers,  its a pity second and winning deffo isn't that big a deal, It does deffo feel over bet now. I was in at 2.06 when there was 2.1 available and have laid it now so it looks like it might get shorter still.

In the reverse fixture when it was  bang competitive Arsenal were about 1.40 to win the game. I guess if this was competitive they would be about 2.2 or 2.25 although it's probably fair to say Arsenal in general are in a worse state now than then so possibly bigger. It's an interesting game coz it could be one of those rare matches where both sides are value at different points. The guys that took 2/1 yesterday have done a brill job there.

[ripple11]

There are rumours circulating on Twitter that Doncaster have been hit by a virus and are going to struggle to field a team away at Crewe in the JPT this evening. You can still get better than evens on a Crewe win at most bookies. Worth a flutter?

http://www.yorkshirepost.co.uk/sport/football/doncaster/crewe-alexandra-v-doncaster-rovers-fans-might-want-to-think-twice-about-going-to-crewe-saunders-1-5191994

[rfgqqabc]

There are rumours circulating on Twitter that Doncaster have been hit by a virus and are going to struggle to field a team away at Crewe in the JPT this evening. You can still get better than evens on a Crewe win at most bookies. Worth a flutter?

http://www.yorkshirepost.co.uk/sport/football/doncaster/crewe-alexandra-v-doncaster-rovers-fans-might-want-to-think-twice-about-going-to-crewe-saunders-1-5191994

Info looks good but been backed waaaaaaaaaaaaay in.

[bobby1]

It was much bigger this morning, the price has already contracted a lot to take in the news tho obv might still be value when the line ups are released.

[tikay]

Champions league.

The 1st two teams in the betting are Barca (13/5) and Real (7/2), the next 2 are German, Bayern (8/1), Dortmund (9/1). Then we get the English, French, Italian, Portugese, Ukrainian teams.
Keep going down and we arrive at the 3rd German team, Shalke 04, who can be backed @ 66/1.

If we look at the German league, Bayern are cruising and look the dominant team.
Then comes Leverkusen, then Dortmund and Schalke in 3rd and 4th separated by 2 points.

So we have 2 German teams, both of whom have qualified for last 16 and likely to top their groups (albeit Dortmunds was much tougher), looking like they are similarly matched in their national league and yet one is 9/1 4th favs for the Champs league and the other is 66/1 12th favs.
And Schalke didn't play Champs league last year but 2 years ago were beaten by Man United in the semi finals.
We all know the Germans are coming (in a couple of years they may be the dominant league in Europe?) but is there value here on Schalke, or conversely, are Dortmund too short?

The only league I know anything about is the Premier league and I don't even watch Champs League, let alone the Bundseliga so perhaps the prices are correct but would welcome other views.

I'm working from the bottom of today's pile here, before I get to the really crucial stuff like will it be a boy or a girl, redhead or brunette, Tuesday's child, or whatever, but are there any further views on this.

66/1 is some way out of line with other books.


http://www.oddschecker.com/football/champions-league/champions-league/winner

[tikay]

My Bad!

Thought more had gone on than actually had. Probably mixing up the new thread on football with recommendations on here.

Thoroughly enjoy the thread, and betting on a far wider range of stuff than I ever imagined. Especially nice turning on the lappy in the morning and wondering why my betfair balance has increased, when I know there was no racing overnight!!

No worries at all Mr Adz, I think it is probably because you see so many recommends for PL games on here. I doubt we do 6 a season, & then only in peculiar circumstances. Tony Bloom we ain't.

We sticjk to stuff where there is genuine value. What day do you think this baby thing will enter our world? Boy, or girl?

[tikay]

Think we should be taking the evens the Royal Baby is a boy

http://www.oddschecker.com/novelty/william-and-kate/gender-of-baby

Boy should be a marginal shade of odds on if the pregnancy was completely random given first pregnancy statistics favouring boys slightly- however surely they are "trying for a boy"- (certain techniques and timings are said to add small %s to the chances of conceiving each sex), as all Royals generally are which should give us a marginal edge taking evens.

Recommend a solid £25 at evens

Please tell me this is not serious, Mr S?

http://www.oddschecker.com/novelty/william-and-kate/gender-of-baby


While we are still in the land of la-la, how about what day?


http://www.oddschecker.com/novelty/william-and-kate/what-day-of-the-week-will-kate-give-birth


Here's a good one, too......weight?


http://www.oddschecker.com/novelty/william-and-kate/weight-of-the-first-baby



 

[tikay]

Kukushin: The case for Seattle and the wild card http://www.nfl.com/videos/auto/0ap2000000103712/State-Your-Case-No-6-NFC-playoff-seed

Meanwhile Washington 17, Giants 16. Skins cover as a home dog.

Good Morning Tighty,

I´m going to sound a bit like a broken record :-) but.............. my case is that Seattle might very well get the 2nd seed. That´s a good result for Seattle last night, NY are one of the dangers. I don´t like the team much but they have a huge chance, it´s all on SF at home and Buffalo away if they win those they really can get the 2nd seed.

What is your current thinking on this Kuku?

I'm quite keen to get involved in some way if we think we might have a real shot.

[tikay]

Player Performance - Team B Player 7   Hide
1pt per run, 10 pts per catch, 20 pts per wicket, 25 pts for keeper stumping. Match must have a ball bowled in 3rd innings for bets to stand.
Samit Patel Over (73.5)   
5/6
Samit Patel Under (73.5)   
5/6

PLAYER PERFORMANCE   3rd Test - S.Patel Player Performance - Kolkata
Refresh   
Under 55.5   1.90    
Over 55.5   1.90    
 
 
     
1pt per Run, 10pts per Catch, 20pts per Wicket, 25pts per Stumping
Please check the betting rules located on the Cricketbet Rules page

paddy power and cricbetlive seem to disagree on the merits of Samit Patel.
SPIN have him in for 53 runs so overs seems the way to go with any wickets/catches in for free (nearly),however i would think that the compilers are pretty sharp at crickbetlive.
i may just go for the 18 point middle

hope that makes sense

Yup, it msakes sense, thanks.

My first question is who are "cricketbetlive", & can we trust them?

[tikay]

Think we should be taking the evens the Royal Baby is a boy

http://www.oddschecker.com/novelty/william-and-kate/gender-of-baby

Boy should be a marginal shade of odds on if the pregnancy was completely random given first pregnancy statistics favouring boys slightly- however surely they are "trying for a boy"- (certain techniques and timings are said to add small %s to the chances of conceiving each sex), as all Royals generally are which should give us a marginal edge taking evens.

Recommend a solid £25 at evens

Can't believe I would ever do this, but I'm going to have to disagree with Dubai on a bet recommend.

Kate has hyperemesis gravidarum (severe morning sickness) and this is linked to a higher concentration of something called human chorionic gonadotropin, which is more common when the baby is a girl.

As is common on this thread I present a paper from The Lancet to back up my argument, which found that in the cases that were looked at when the mother was admitted to hospital in the first three months (as Kate has), the baby was a boy only 44.3% of the time, compared to 51.4% of all births being male.

http://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(05)74029-0/fulltext

So, we're getting evens on a 4/5 shot.

Recommend bet on Girl an Evens.

Proper research that, Andrew.

And another thing, what do Dubai & bobby1 know about kids?

I rest my case.

[tikay]

If we are getting all Royal baby feverish I suggest £15 on baby to be born on a Monday at 6/1. Supposed to be around 8 weeks pregnant now, which gives a due date of the first week of July. The 1st of July is a Monday.

Princess Diana's birthday was on the first of July. Even if that doesn't work you still have the right price for every other Monday.

I think the weekend days are too short, nobody wants to be going to hospital at the weekends in July with all those pre season football injuries taking up loads of attention and no sandwiches in the vending machine.

Morning or afternoon, Phil?

[tikay]

Does anyone think Olympiakos are very short now?

I can see a decent team in there but probably have to allow for 2-3 young lads in at this stage. At the end of the day Arsenal are the side that need a result too.

Arsenal Squad: Szczesny, Vermaelen, Rosicky, Oxlade-Chamberlain, Ramsey, Squillaci, Coquelin, Arshavin, Jenkinson, Gervinho, Chamakh, Angha, Ansah, Hajrovic, Meade, Monteiro, Shea, Akpom

Olympiakos already qualified for the Europa league and have a big game away at Pana this weekend.

Arsenal are now a barely believable 16/5.

I know they are enduring their thrice annual mid-season crisis, but 11/5 against the Bubbles?


http://www.oddschecker.com/football/champions-league/olympiakos-v-arsenal/winner


I would not need much nudging to indulge to a small degree.

[kukushkin88]

Kukushin: The case for Seattle and the wild card http://www.nfl.com/videos/auto/0ap2000000103712/State-Your-Case-No-6-NFC-playoff-seed

Meanwhile Washington 17, Giants 16. Skins cover as a home dog.

Good Morning Tighty,

I´m going to sound a bit like a broken record :-) but.............. my case is that Seattle might very well get the 2nd seed. That´s a good result for Seattle last night, NY are one of the dangers. I don´t like the team much but they have a huge chance, it´s all on SF at home and Buffalo away if they win those they really can get the 2nd seed.

What is your current thinking on this Kuku?

I'm quite keen to get involved in some way if we think we might have a real shot.

I´ve put many hours of research in and have had a big bet on it. I´ll have a really good go at explaining where I´m coming from later this evening and see if we can get Bobby/Red/Tighty on side. The schedule just seems to me to have thrown up a big opportunity. NYG losing definitely helps and I maintain that if you go through all the schedules, the 2 seed is a real possibility. If Seattle beat them at home then San Francisco are going to need to have got something from New England, although I like how they match up in that game it´s still a very big ask. I´m really looking forward to seeing how it pans out as every remaining meaningful game involving an NFC team has big implications for the bet.

[tikay]

Let me get my pen.

I made a list of simple rules for posting on Fred a few weeks back:
 
1. Always lay Liverpool
2. Never advocate greening out unless Camel is on holiday in Borneo.
3. Don't argue with Dubai or Hector

I had it laminated as well...

Makes Ant, with suggestions for Palace to remain unbeaten untuil the next millenium, look almost sensible.

Come back to me when I am wrong with this, ha.

Which leads me to the bet suggestion of Palace at home to beat Blackpool at 2.2. I think 1.95 is a fair price and 2 or above represents value.

Watford at 2.45 at home to beat Hull as well seems to be appealing and these two are official tips, to hopefully be supported by others.

Hi Ant,

Remind us about these later in the week please.

The Watford price in particular appeals.