Tips for Tikay

[ripple11]

Think we should be taking the evens the Royal Baby is a boy

http://www.oddschecker.com/novelty/william-and-kate/gender-of-baby

Boy should be a marginal shade of odds on if the pregnancy was completely random given first pregnancy statistics favouring boys slightly- however surely they are "trying for a boy"- (certain techniques and timings are said to add small %s to the chances of conceiving each sex), as all Royals generally are which should give us a marginal edge taking evens.

Recommend a solid £25 at evens

Can't believe I would ever do this, but I'm going to have to disagree with Dubai on a bet recommend.

Kate has hyperemesis gravidarum (severe morning sickness) and this is linked to a higher concentration of something called human chorionic gonadotropin, which is more common when the baby is a girl.

As is common on this thread I present a paper from The Lancet to back up my argument, which found that in the cases that were looked at when the mother was admitted to hospital in the first three months (as Kate has), the baby was a boy only 44.3% of the time, compared to 51.4% of all births being male.

http://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(05)74029-0/fulltext

So, we're getting evens on a 4/5 shot.

Recommend bet on Girl an Evens.

Proper research that, Andrew.

And another thing, what do Dubai & bobby1 know about kids?

I rest my case.

I'm with Mr.T......in which case Fred should also be backing girl names .......

[tikay]

Kukushin: The case for Seattle and the wild card http://www.nfl.com/videos/auto/0ap2000000103712/State-Your-Case-No-6-NFC-playoff-seed

Meanwhile Washington 17, Giants 16. Skins cover as a home dog.

Good Morning Tighty,

I´m going to sound a bit like a broken record :-) but.............. my case is that Seattle might very well get the 2nd seed. That´s a good result for Seattle last night, NY are one of the dangers. I don´t like the team much but they have a huge chance, it´s all on SF at home and Buffalo away if they win those they really can get the 2nd seed.

What is your current thinking on this Kuku?

I'm quite keen to get involved in some way if we think we might have a real shot.

I´ve put many hours of research in and have had a big bet on it. I´ll have a really good go at explaining where I´m coming from later this evening and see if we can get Bobby/Red/Tighty on side. The schedule just seems to me to have thrown up a big opportunity. NYG losing definitely helps and I maintain that if you go through all the schedules, the 2 seed is a real possibility. If Seattle beat them at home then San Francisco are going to need to have got something from New England, although I like how they match up in that game it´s still a very big ask. I´m really looking forward to seeing how it pans out as every remaining meaningful game involving an NFC team has big implications for the bet.

Please do.

What a sweat it would be, too, every week. Of course, we can't back Teams for sheer "sweat value", as I get shouted at by the Elders, but now we are assessing the odds of a female baby, born on a Tuesday, weighting in at 7lb 3ozs (related treble anyone?) surely we can be permitted a throwing a few bob at a genuine 14/1 shot?

[TL900]

Does anyone think Olympiakos are very short now?

I can see a decent team in there but probably have to allow for 2-3 young lads in at this stage. At the end of the day Arsenal are the side that need a result too.

Arsenal Squad: Szczesny, Vermaelen, Rosicky, Oxlade-Chamberlain, Ramsey, Squillaci, Coquelin, Arshavin, Jenkinson, Gervinho, Chamakh, Angha, Ansah, Hajrovic, Meade, Monteiro, Shea, Akpom

Olympiakos already qualified for the Europa league and have a big game away at Pana this weekend.

Arsenal are now a barely believable 16/5.

I know they are enduring their thrice annual mid-season crisis, but 11/5 against the Bubbles?


http://www.oddschecker.com/football/champions-league/olympiakos-v-arsenal/winner


I would not need much nudging to indulge to a small degree.

gota get on @ 16/5 imo. Olympiakos got nothing to play for

[tikay]

India v England 3rd test.

All the pre match hype for the last test was to bring Monty back as the pitch would suit and he performed admirably. All the hype for this match is to play Finn instead of Broad. My interpretation of this is as follows.

If this wicket was going to be another huge spinner then they would be proposing Bresnan for Broad as his batting is OK and it is thought that the spinners will take most of the wickets and Patel and Pietersen can bowl spin too. But they are not, it is all about Finn. He played in the warm up game and got 4 1st innings wickets and by all accounts looked sharp.

I looked at the match played at this ground last year v the West Indies. India batted 1st and got over 600. They then bowled the WI out for 153 and then 463 to win the match. India's seamers Yadav and Sharma took 9 of the wickets to fall and 5 of them were bowled. My final piece of information that has pushed me towards this bet is that the match starts each day an hour earlier at 9 am so there will be dew about to help the seamers.

I would like to suggest for top English bowler to be Finn or Anderson, it is only done on 1st innings wickets taken.

Finn £10 @ 5-1 Betfred
Anderson £10 @ 11-2  Bluesquare

Good evening Mr hector.

I LOVED that, then Tighty came along & poured copious amounts of cold water on it. That is the Tighty who described you recently as a punting guru & cake-maker par excellence.

How do you respond to his opposition?

[BigAdz]

Got to agree. As stated earlier, I suspect Arsenal to be the hungrier, and aint much like a wounded gunner!

on Olym may have been value but now the tables have turned this is equally so.

I imagine at best odds it a perfect arb opp?(of which I know nothing, and just cant bring myself to do pre event)

[tikay]

Does anyone think Olympiakos are very short now?

I can see a decent team in there but probably have to allow for 2-3 young lads in at this stage. At the end of the day Arsenal are the side that need a result too.

Arsenal Squad: Szczesny, Vermaelen, Rosicky, Oxlade-Chamberlain, Ramsey, Squillaci, Coquelin, Arshavin, Jenkinson, Gervinho, Chamakh, Angha, Ansah, Hajrovic, Meade, Monteiro, Shea, Akpom

Olympiakos already qualified for the Europa league and have a big game away at Pana this weekend.

I tried to resist, Phil, but it was too much for me.

We have £25 @ 16/5, BetVictor, Arsenal tonight.

ON

Olympiakos Piraus v Arsenal
Arsenal
(Match Betting)
Odds:  16/5
Stake:  25.00
Possible Return:  105.00

[tikay]

Got to agree. As stated earlier, I suspect Arsenal to be the hungrier, and aint much like a wounded gunner!

on Olym may have been value but now the tables have turned this is equally so.

I imagine at best odds it a perfect arb opp?(of which I know nothing, and just cant bring myself to do pre event)

Had I been paying attention at the time, when Methusela first mentioned it, yes, I would have happily got with the Greeks @ 2/1.

But now, with Arsenal at 16/5, it had to be done.



 

Click to see full-size image.

[Doobs]

Does anyone think Olympiakos are very short now?

I can see a decent team in there but probably have to allow for 2-3 young lads in at this stage. At the end of the day Arsenal are the side that need a result too.

Arsenal Squad: Szczesny, Vermaelen, Rosicky, Oxlade-Chamberlain, Ramsey, Squillaci, Coquelin, Arshavin, Jenkinson, Gervinho, Chamakh, Angha, Ansah, Hajrovic, Meade, Monteiro, Shea, Akpom

Olympiakos already qualified for the Europa league and have a big game away at Pana this weekend.

Arsenal are now a barely believable 16/5.

I know they are enduring their thrice annual mid-season crisis, but 11/5 against the Bubbles?


http://www.oddschecker.com/football/champions-league/olympiakos-v-arsenal/winner


I would not need much nudging to indulge to a small degree.

gota get on @ 16/5 imo. Olympiakos got nothing to play for

Fk that 4.5 on Betfair.  Get on now

[Doobs]

Does anyone think Olympiakos are very short now?

I can see a decent team in there but probably have to allow for 2-3 young lads in at this stage. At the end of the day Arsenal are the side that need a result too.

Arsenal Squad: Szczesny, Vermaelen, Rosicky, Oxlade-Chamberlain, Ramsey, Squillaci, Coquelin, Arshavin, Jenkinson, Gervinho, Chamakh, Angha, Ansah, Hajrovic, Meade, Monteiro, Shea, Akpom

Olympiakos already qualified for the Europa league and have a big game away at Pana this weekend.

Arsenal are now a barely believable 16/5.

I know they are enduring their thrice annual mid-season crisis, but 11/5 against the Bubbles?


http://www.oddschecker.com/football/champions-league/olympiakos-v-arsenal/winner


I would not need much nudging to indulge to a small degree.

gota get on @ 16/5 imo. Olympiakos got nothing to play for

Fk that 4.5 on Betfair.  Get on now

I have laid them for Saturday too, but we can come back to that later, but don't want people thinking I am changing with the wind when I post later!

[tikay]

Doobs,

I already got on, 20 minutes ago (see prev Posts) at what was, at the time, a best-priced 16/5.

[Doobs]

Doobs,

I already got on, 20 minutes ago (see prev Posts) at what was, at the time, a best-priced 16/5.

Not paying attention sorry.  Putting kids to bed.

Can we press?

[hector62]

But Dhoni said ahead of the start on Wednesday: "The wicket looks good. We'll have to see whether anything happens. It depends on clay content.
"I don't think it will be much help for the spinners initially."
The four-Test series is level at 1-1 with two matches left to play. India won the first Test in Ahmedabad by nine wickets, but England responded by winning the second in Mumbai by 10 wickets.
And the 31-year-old insisted that fast bowlers will play a crucial role in what could prove to be a decisive match.
"The fast bowlers at this time of year get a bit of swing on the ball both at the start of play and before stumps," he added.
"I think the role of fast bowlers will be very crucial in this game."


I think the logic behind the bet is sound and the 2-1 price we get acceptable. The fact that in last years test on this ground fast bowlers took 9 out of 20 West Indian wickets shows that this wicket can help Anderson and Finn. But the decision making stops at the top and it doesn't get any more topper than you.

[FUN4FRASER]

Also posted on Fred, but in case it's of interest:

There are rumours circulating on Twitter that Doncaster have been hit by a virus and are going to struggle to field a team away at Crewe in the JPT this evening. You can still get better than evens on a Crewe win at most bookies. Worth a flutter?

Above posted by superwomble earlier on football thread

It seems Doncaster are not a full strength........there has been money for Crewe

[kukushkin88]

Also posted on Fred, but in case it's of interest:

There are rumours circulating on Twitter that Doncaster have been hit by a virus and are going to struggle to field a team away at Crewe in the JPT this evening. You can still get better than evens on a Crewe win at most bookies. Worth a flutter?

Above posted by superwomble earlier on football thread

It seems Doncaster are not a full strength........there has been money for Crewe

Needed to be on this morning, the price was long gone.

[Doobs]

But Dhoni said ahead of the start on Wednesday: "The wicket looks good. We'll have to see whether anything happens. It depends on clay content.
"I don't think it will be much help for the spinners initially."
The four-Test series is level at 1-1 with two matches left to play. India won the first Test in Ahmedabad by nine wickets, but England responded by winning the second in Mumbai by 10 wickets.
And the 31-year-old insisted that fast bowlers will play a crucial role in what could prove to be a decisive match.
"The fast bowlers at this time of year get a bit of swing on the ball both at the start of play and before stumps," he added.
"I think the role of fast bowlers will be very crucial in this game."


I think the logic behind the bet is sound and the 2-1 price we get acceptable. The fact that in last years test on this ground fast bowlers took 9 out of 20 West Indian wickets shows that this wicket can help Anderson and Finn. But the decision making stops at the top and it doesn't get any more topper than you.

This just looks like a draw to me.  The 3.1 of last week has gone, but the draw is still available at 7/4 in many spots.  Given the shortening on Betfair, suspect this is disappearing soon.

I would be I interested to see how often a fast bowler has been best bowler here in the past before betting.  9/20 is still less than half the wickets.