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[Ant040689]

On Arsenal as well peeps for the Fred sweat.

Looking dodge so far but always a chance with Carroll in goal for them!

[Tal]

Interim chess news. News of the mixed variety.

Kramnik couldn't beat Anand and, having just played through the game, I would put it more on Anand's shoulders than Kramnik's that they drew. There is an element of responsibility on the White pieces to try for a win and Anand seemed content with a draw today. Nothing we could do. Perhaps it indicates Anand sensed Kramnik is in form so he was happy with the half.

There was a Yin to this Yang, as Carlsen polished off Jones comfortably, so he is the leader at the halfway mark.

As we only have (IIRC) £30 on Carlsen to win, there's no point recommending another bet this week unless I hear some insider info, as we are eating into profit, having already spent £15 on match bets.

Alternatively, I can post predictions, thoughts and suggestions as ever but with from Fred's perspective just - as it were - en passant.

Will do my report later when the other two games (including a heck of a game between McShane and Aronian) are done.

[Tal]

Obv I'm not on @r$€n@\

[Ant040689]

helllllllllllllllllo

[Marky147]

Under it for ages, but that was a really well worked piece of football

[aaron1867]

Also posted on Fred, but in case it's of interest:

There are rumours circulating on Twitter that Doncaster have been hit by a virus and are going to struggle to field a team away at Crewe in the JPT this evening. You can still get better than evens on a Crewe win at most bookies. Worth a flutter?

Above posted by superwomble earlier on football thread

It seems Doncaster are not a full strength........there has been money for Crewe

Popped into Corals about half 5 and they was pricing it up at 11/8, thought I would get on. Asked at counter and was 5/6, sigh.

What is the current score?

[Ant040689]

The value was definitely there for the Arsenal bet, just a shame they couldn't kill the game off.

[kukushkin88]

(Anyone who´s had enough of me harping on about Seattle wining the NFC at 14/1 please ignore the following)

Hi Tony,

I have three sides of A4 hand written out on the Seattle bet but I´ll spare everyone that level of detail. It seems from the other thread that Red quite likes the idea, a big plus.

In brief I reckon Seattle are about 4.8-1 to win out, if they do and San Francisco lose at New England which is something like a 4/7 shot then Seattle are highly likely to secure home advantage. From there we have an incredibly good bet. If they win 3 out of 4 which they really should then our bet is still quite favourable at 14-1. It´s scenario 1: the possibility of securing home advantage that really has me interested though.

Seattle go to Buffalo they are about 4/7 there and have 3 home games against Arizona, St Louis they are 1/5 shots in these games and San Francisco where they are likely to be circa 11/10. They have a 100% record at home this year, irrelevant stat sample size wise but they have been very hard to beat at home for a very long time.

The teams ahead of or equal to them are:

NYG 7-5: They go to Atlanta and Baltimore with home fixtures vs New Orleans and Philly.
Chicago 8-4: They go to Minnesota, Arizona and Detroit with a home fixture vs GB.
Green Bay 8-4: They go to the Bears and Minnesota with home games vs The Titans and Detroit.
49ers 8-3-1: They go to Seattle and and New England with home games against Miami and Arizona.

So Green Bay probably have the best chance to win out although they have two really tough away matches against divisional rivals. The others have really really tough run ins. Seattle have the tiebreaker against Chicago and Green Bay if it goes to 11-5 multi way. I can´t have NYG getting involved with that run in and even if they did win out Seattle can still pip them on the tiebreaker. The 49ers have 2 of the toughest away fixtures in the whole of the league to come with home games that they really should win.

If they do get to 11-5, I just don´t see looking at the above who is going to beat them to the 3 seed and if San Fran lose in NE then the 2 seed is definitely on the cards.

(for the purpose of the analysis Atlanta are assumed to have secured the no.1 seed) I´m already on for myself and would love to hear what the NFL guys reckon to Fred getting too.

Thanks for indulging me on this one :-).

[kukushkin88]

Also posted on Fred, but in case it's of interest:

There are rumours circulating on Twitter that Doncaster have been hit by a virus and are going to struggle to field a team away at Crewe in the JPT this evening. You can still get better than evens on a Crewe win at most bookies. Worth a flutter?

Above posted by superwomble earlier on football thread

It seems Doncaster are not a full strength........there has been money for Crewe

Popped into Corals about half 5 and they was pricing it up at 11/8, thought I would get on. Asked at counter and was 5/6, sigh.

What is the current score?

Finished 1 each. Crewe won on penalties.

[Tal]

Interviewer: "Joe was this the same old Man City Champions League performance?"

Joe Hart: "Yep"


That's how you deal with a stupid question.

[Snowball]

Also posted on Fred, but in case it's of interest:

There are rumours circulating on Twitter that Doncaster have been hit by a virus and are going to struggle to field a team away at Crewe in the JPT this evening. You can still get better than evens on a Crewe win at most bookies. Worth a flutter?

Above posted by superwomble earlier on football thread

It seems Doncaster are not a full strength........there has been money for Crewe

Popped into Corals about half 5 and they was pricing it up at 11/8, thought I would get on. Asked at counter and was 5/6, sigh.

What is the current score?

Very lucky swerve as they were 6/5 at 5pm and Doncaster scored with the last kick of the Ball.

[LeKnave]

(Anyone who´s had enough of me harping on about Seattle wining the NFC at 14/1 please ignore the following)

Hi Tony,

I have three sides of A4 hand written out on the Seattle bet but I´ll spare everyone that level of detail. It seems from the other thread that Red quite likes the idea, a big plus.

In brief I reckon Seattle are about 4.8-1 to win out, if they do and San Francisco lose at New England which is something like a 4/7 shot then Seattle are highly likely to secure home advantage. From there we have an incredibly good bet. If they win 3 out of 4 which they really should then our bet is still quite favourable at 14-1. It´s scenario 1: the possibility of securing home advantage that really has me interested though.

Seattle go to Buffalo they are about 4/7 there and have 3 home games against Arizona, St Louis they are 1/5 shots in these games and San Francisco where they are likely to be circa 11/10. They have a 100% record at home this year, irrelevant stat sample size wise but they have been very hard to beat at home for a very long time.

The teams ahead of or equal to them are:

NYG 7-5: They go to Atlanta and Baltimore with home fixtures vs New Orleans and Philly.
Chicago 8-4: They go to Minnesota, Arizona and Detroit with a home fixture vs GB.
Green Bay 8-4: They go to the Bears and Minnesota with home games vs The Titans and Detroit.
49ers 8-3-1: They go to Seattle and and New England with home games against Miami and Arizona.

So Green Bay probably have the best chance to win out although they have two really tough away matches against divisional rivals. The others have really really tough run ins. Seattle have the tiebreaker against Chicago and Green Bay if it goes to 11-5 multi way. I can´t have NYG getting involved with that run in and even if they did win out Seattle can still pip them on the tiebreaker. The 49ers have 2 of the toughest away fixtures in the whole of the league to come with home games that they really should win.

If they do get to 11-5, I just don´t see looking at the above who is going to beat them to the 3 seed and if San Fran lose in NE then the 2 seed is definitely on the cards.

(for the purpose of the analysis Atlanta are assumed to have secured the no.1 seed) I´m already on for myself and would love to hear what the NFL guys reckon to Fred getting too.

Thanks for indulging me on this one :-).

I'm a big hater of Seattle for the most part, think they're just a poor side running joke good, but as a word of warning, keep an eye out on the potential suspensions on both starting corners, Sherman and Browner, if they end up getting the 4 game ban its curtains for them.  Both decent and aggressive corners who would be a big loss.

[tikay]

Thanks Dave.

Can you explain ( or link to) the story of these suspensions, please?

[LeKnave]

Thanks Dave.

Can you explain ( or link to) the story of these suspensions, please?

http://espn.go.com/nfl/story/_/id/8706371/richard-sherman-seattle-seahawks-appeal-set-dec-14-source-says

[kukushkin88]

(Anyone who´s had enough of me harping on about Seattle wining the NFC at 14/1 please ignore the following)

Hi Tony,

I have three sides of A4 hand written out on the Seattle bet but I´ll spare everyone that level of detail. It seems from the other thread that Red quite likes the idea, a big plus.

In brief I reckon Seattle are about 4.8-1 to win out, if they do and San Francisco lose at New England which is something like a 4/7 shot then Seattle are highly likely to secure home advantage. From there we have an incredibly good bet. If they win 3 out of 4 which they really should then our bet is still quite favourable at 14-1. It´s scenario 1: the possibility of securing home advantage that really has me interested though.

Seattle go to Buffalo they are about 4/7 there and have 3 home games against Arizona, St Louis they are 1/5 shots in these games and San Francisco where they are likely to be circa 11/10. They have a 100% record at home this year, irrelevant stat sample size wise but they have been very hard to beat at home for a very long time.

The teams ahead of or equal to them are:

NYG 7-5: They go to Atlanta and Baltimore with home fixtures vs New Orleans and Philly.
Chicago 8-4: They go to Minnesota, Arizona and Detroit with a home fixture vs GB.
Green Bay 8-4: They go to the Bears and Minnesota with home games vs The Titans and Detroit.
49ers 8-3-1: They go to Seattle and and New England with home games against Miami and Arizona.

So Green Bay probably have the best chance to win out although they have two really tough away matches against divisional rivals. The others have really really tough run ins. Seattle have the tiebreaker against Chicago and Green Bay if it goes to 11-5 multi way. I can´t have NYG getting involved with that run in and even if they did win out Seattle can still pip them on the tiebreaker. The 49ers have 2 of the toughest away fixtures in the whole of the league to come with home games that they really should win.

If they do get to 11-5, I just don´t see looking at the above who is going to beat them to the 3 seed and if San Fran lose in NE then the 2 seed is definitely on the cards.

(for the purpose of the analysis Atlanta are assumed to have secured the no.1 seed) I´m already on for myself and would love to hear what the NFL guys reckon to Fred getting too.

Thanks for indulging me on this one :-).

I'm a big hater of Seattle for the most part, think they're just running joke good, but as a word of warning, keep an eye out on the potential suspensions on both starting corners, Sherman and Browner, if they end up getting the 4 game ban its curtains for them.  Both decent and agressive corners who would be a big loss.

Yeah that´s a good point on the corners, in spite of all his mouthing off Sherman in particular has been immense this year.

Not that it means anything for the bet but they are the one NFL team that I particularly don´t like as well. No doubt they have run good so far, most notably vs GB, that pissed me off loads but surely what they have ahead of them looks pretty favourable.