Tips for Tikay

[kukushkin88]

Morning Mr T.

The 6 nations is looming and you already have a recommendation from his Tightiness for Ireland to win it, and I agree that they are where the value is. I have been looking at a couple of sub markets for some value.

In the top try scorer market I would suggest a small bet on Tuillagi e/w will be of interest. He is the only English player that I would have in my World XV and should not get substituted at all. England have 3 home games, 2 of them against 2 of the weakest sides,  and he should have some good opportunities. The days of wingers scoring 6 or more tries in the championship each year are gone and I think 3 will get into the place money.

The next market is for the team to finish bottom. Since it became the 6 nations only 3 teams have finished last, Italy, Wales and Scotland. I think this year those 3 are the possible winners of the wooden spoon. Italy are odd on for this so I will look elsewhere for the value.

Scotland and Wales are both playing poorly and neither country got a side through to the 1/4 finals of the European Cup. In the autumn internationals Wales lost to both Samoa and Argentina, whilst Scotland capped that by losing to Tonga.

In rugby playing at home is a huge advantage, more than in almost any other sport, and so it is important to look at where the crucial fixtures will be played. Both Italy and Scotland have 3 home matches whilst Wales only have 2. Even more importantly Wales have to play both of their rivals away. In their first match Wales host Ireland and I think Ireland will win. They then go to France where they will  be big underdogs. It is likely then that Wales will  travel to Italy having lost all their International matches since the last 6 nations. If the match was played this week I don't think Italy would be bigger than 7/4 to win it. Wales have also been hit very badly by injuries this season, and having players leave to play in France has not benefited them.

With all of those things it is worth looking at the prices for both Scotland and Wales to finish last. I priced them myself at Scotland 3/1 and Wales 9/2. I was therefore astonished to see that  the bookies priced them at Scotland 100/30 and Wales 20/1. If you bet with Stan James then Wales are 25-1.

Suggest Tuillagi top try scorer £5 e/w @ 16-1 Paddy Power

Wales to finish bottom £10 @ 20-1 Betfred.

P.S To any Welsh fans I am not suggesting that Wales are the worst team, it is about value.

20/1 definitely on the big side, good bet, ( ) good luck :-)

[horseplayer]

Think you're missing, esp whoever asked about the unders, that if Deng is injured Kobe will have an abs field day. Deng is one of the best defenders around and would be guarding Kobe throughout the whole game (Deng normally plays over 40 of the 48 mins) and is a really, really good man on man defender. If he stays out - which look likely, he missed the last game and sat out today's shootaround - Kobe will have a far easier time. Loads of games today for MLK day

Fair point, as i said in my original post i dont really know much about basketball.  I thought i read Deny was a top scorer in one of the posts.  This made me think without him there is have a chance of scoring less points, rather than conceeding more as I knew nothing of his defensive ability.  From reading the post by TL900 about the bulls being solid in and the lakers not playing so well with Kobe misfiring, added to the fact this guy might be out, i thought maybe unders could have been abit of value, but i guess it's already factored into the price, especially as its gone from 196 to 194.5.  

Quick sport change, anyone have a lot of knowledge on Spanish football? Tonights la liga game see's Real Betis, who occupy 4th spot face Bilboa who sit in 15th.  Betis's away form is  impressive, having played 9, won 6 , drawn 1 and lost 2.  Their home form is a little more hit and miss , played 10, won 5, lost 5. Bilboa on the other hand have a poor away record, having played 9 games, they've won 1, draw 2, lost 6.  Betis are in decent form having won 4 from the last 6, the 2 losses in the last 6 both game at home, one at the hands of Barcelona, losing 2-1 and the other losing 2-1 vs Mallorca.  Bilbao on the other hand have won 2 from their last 6, losing 4.

The Head 2 Head for these teams shows Bilboa have won the last 3, but lost the 2 before that.

Obviously all of this form is factored into the price already, so what i'm wondering is why they are odds against with BetV @ 21/20?  Personally i'd have them as slight favourites, as most bookies do at 10/11.  Is there any value here and if so is it enough to take a shot at?

Bare in mind i've been sports betting for years, and im definately an 'ice cream' but since reading this thread from the start I do beleive i've improved.

horsey knows Spanish Football inside out, (he specialises in niche markets) but he's not Online at the moment.

hi sparrow and tikay

bilbao are my spanish team for reasons i have explained before. To be honest the last 4 games are the only games i have really missed over the last few years for obvious reasons so i dont feel as qualified as usual to offer an opinion on the match odds market.

Betvictor seem to have taken a stand in the recent year or so to be best priced on match odds most often across most major leagues so the fact they are best price is probably just because of that. Having said that the odds against i bigger than the machine so i certainly would not put you off that.

If you would like a bet this evening the betis to score over 1.5 goals at 5-6 with bet365 is more than fair ( i have not had time to see if other firms offer this) reasoning being betis can score at home are strong at home and bilbao pretty much always conceed at least one away but more often two or more. by the same token the 7-4 with hills for betis to score in both halves is not a bad bet.


I have looked for a set piece option for betis as bilbao are very weak defending set pieces this season junior paulao is not profilic from centre back but is the only betis defender to score this season (twice) 25-1 with some firms is no more than correct though. DOES NOT START!!!

Overall like the bets in this order if forced ( i have not bet anything)

over 1.5 goals betis 5-6 bet365 (looks a decent bet to me)

to score in both halves 7-4 hills (betis) slightly bigger on betfair possibly




sorry bit rushed

edited as team news i had was wrong both goalscoring suggestions do not start so ignore

[a.sparrow]

Great reply Horsey, especially for as you were a bit rushed! I'm going to have a tickle on Bilbao to score over 1.5 goals, thank you!

[a.sparrow]

Corals are the best priced for this bet at 10/11 incase anyone else wanted to get on.

[horseplayer]

that is fine mate upto you but i said betis to score over 1.5 or at least i meant to !

[Spudy]

Morning Mr T.

The 6 nations is looming and you already have a recommendation from his Tightiness for Ireland to win it, and I agree that they are where the value is. I have been looking at a couple of sub markets for some value.

In the top try scorer market I would suggest a small bet on Tuillagi e/w will be of interest. He is the only English player that I would have in my World XV and should not get substituted at all. England have 3 home games, 2 of them against 2 of the weakest sides,  and he should have some good opportunities. The days of wingers scoring 6 or more tries in the championship each year are gone and I think 3 will get into the place money.

The next market is for the team to finish bottom. Since it became the 6 nations only 3 teams have finished last, Italy, Wales and Scotland. I think this year those 3 are the possible winners of the wooden spoon. Italy are odd on for this so I will look elsewhere for the value.

Scotland and Wales are both playing poorly and neither country got a side through to the 1/4 finals of the European Cup. In the autumn internationals Wales lost to both Samoa and Argentina, whilst Scotland capped that by losing to Tonga.

In rugby playing at home is a huge advantage, more than in almost any other sport, and so it is important to look at where the crucial fixtures will be played. Both Italy and Scotland have 3 home matches whilst Wales only have 2. Even more importantly Wales have to play both of their rivals away. In their first match Wales host Ireland and I think Ireland will win. They then go to France where they will  be big underdogs. It is likely then that Wales will  travel to Italy having lost all their International matches since the last 6 nations. If the match was played this week I don't think Italy would be bigger than 7/4 to win it. Wales have also been hit very badly by injuries this season, and having players leave to play in France has not benefited them.

With all of those things it is worth looking at the prices for both Scotland and Wales to finish last. I priced them myself at Scotland 3/1 and Wales 9/2. I was therefore astonished to see that  the bookies priced them at Scotland 100/30 and Wales 20/1. If you bet with Stan James then Wales are 25-1.

Suggest Tuillagi top try scorer £5 e/w @ 16-1 Paddy Power

Wales to finish bottom £10 @ 20-1 Betfred.

P.S To any Welsh fans I am not suggesting that Wales are the worst team, it is about value.

20/1 definitely on the big side, good bet, ( ) good luck :-)

Betfred now 16-1, though i do prefer England to win outright rather than ireland, though I did back them at 3-1 some while back.

[a.sparrow]

that is fine mate upto you but i said betis to score over 1.5 or at least i meant to !

My bad, you did say betis, and i did look at the odds of betis (home team to score over/under 1/5 goals on odds checker) to find the 10/11 with Corals.  Also just a note that Betis to score in both halves is 2/1 with bet365 which beats the Willyhills price of 7/4.

[horseplayer]

that is fine mate upto you but i said betis to score over 1.5 or at least i meant to !

My bad, you did say betis, and i did look at the odds of betis (home team to score over/under 1/5 goals on odds checker) to find the 10/11 with Corals.  Also just a note that Betis to score in both halves is 2/1 with bet365 which beats the Willyhills price of 7/4.

that seems fair

the 10-11 also gives the cover over the match odds of betis scoring 2 and drawing 2-2 (not that likely) or losing 2-3 or 2-4 (very unlikely) there probably is not a massive advantage of backing to score 0ver 1.5 than the match odds but it is a decent bet if vcbet are no good to you

[tikay]

Think you're missing, esp whoever asked about the unders, that if Deng is injured Kobe will have an abs field day. Deng is one of the best defenders around and would be guarding Kobe throughout the whole game (Deng normally plays over 40 of the 48 mins) and is a really, really good man on man defender. If he stays out - which look likely, he missed the last game and sat out today's shootaround - Kobe will have a far easier time. Loads of games today for MLK day

Fair point, as i said in my original post i dont really know much about basketball.  I thought i read Deny was a top scorer in one of the posts.  This made me think without him there is have a chance of scoring less points, rather than conceeding more as I knew nothing of his defensive ability.  From reading the post by TL900 about the bulls being solid in and the lakers not playing so well with Kobe misfiring, added to the fact this guy might be out, i thought maybe unders could have been abit of value, but i guess it's already factored into the price, especially as its gone from 196 to 194.5.  

Quick sport change, anyone have a lot of knowledge on Spanish football? Tonights la liga game see's Real Betis, who occupy 4th spot face Bilboa who sit in 15th.  Betis's away form is  impressive, having played 9, won 6 , drawn 1 and lost 2.  Their home form is a little more hit and miss , played 10, won 5, lost 5. Bilboa on the other hand have a poor away record, having played 9 games, they've won 1, draw 2, lost 6.  Betis are in decent form having won 4 from the last 6, the 2 losses in the last 6 both game at home, one at the hands of Barcelona, losing 2-1 and the other losing 2-1 vs Mallorca.  Bilbao on the other hand have won 2 from their last 6, losing 4.

The Head 2 Head for these teams shows Bilboa have won the last 3, but lost the 2 before that.

Obviously all of this form is factored into the price already, so what i'm wondering is why they are odds against with BetV @ 21/20?  Personally i'd have them as slight favourites, as most bookies do at 10/11.  Is there any value here and if so is it enough to take a shot at?

Bare in mind i've been sports betting for years, and im definately an 'ice cream' but since reading this thread from the start I do beleive i've improved.

horsey knows Spanish Football inside out, (he specialises in niche markets) but he's not Online at the moment.

hi sparrow and tikay

bilbao are my spanish team for reasons i have explained before. To be honest the last 4 games are the only games i have really missed over the last few years for obvious reasons so i dont feel as qualified as usual to offer an opinion on the match odds market.

Betvictor seem to have taken a stand in the recent year or so to be best priced on match odds most often across most major leagues so the fact they are best price is probably just because of that. Having said that the odds against i bigger than the machine so i certainly would not put you off that.

If you would like a bet this evening the betis to score over 1.5 goals at 5-6 with bet365 is more than fair ( i have not had time to see if other firms offer this) reasoning being betis can score at home are strong at home and bilbao pretty much always conceed at least one away but more often two or more. by the same token the 7-4 with hills for betis to score in both halves is not a bad bet.


I have looked for a set piece option for betis as bilbao are very weak defending set pieces this season junior paulao is not profilic from centre back but is the only betis defender to score this season (twice) 25-1 with some firms is no more than correct though. DOES NOT START!!!

Overall like the bets in this order if forced ( i have not bet anything)

over 1.5 goals betis 5-6 bet365 (looks a decent bet to me)

to score in both halves 7-4 hills (betis) slightly bigger on betfair possibly




sorry bit rushed

edited as team news i had was wrong both goalscoring suggestions do not start so ignore

Thanks for replying horsey.

We have had a little dabble on Betis to score 1.5+, & we got Evens with Coral. Bet365 would have restricted me anyway.

Good luck all.

Betis to score OVER 1.5 goals, £25 @ Evens, Corals.

ON


ingleID:O/1597594/0000036

Over 1.5EVSReal Betis v Athletic Bilbao - 21/01/2013
Stake £25.00
Estimated Return:£50.00
Total Stake: £25.00
Potential Return: £50.00

[a.sparrow]

yeah just seen it's moved to evens on corals now. Nice timely drift.

[horseplayer]

we have a goal for betis in the first minute via the penalty spot

[a.sparrow]

lol fml havent used Coral forever and forgot my password, in my attempt to guarentee i got the best prices i got in and deposited as it kicked off, thought it shoudlnt be an issue with being able to bet inplay. Good start for fred though!

[tikay]

we have a goal for betis in the first minute via the penalty spot

Ha, what a start!

I onlt got on with minutes to spare myself.

[Tal]

Just had a text to watch the Ethiopian keeper's red card today. Something about a kung fu kick but injuring himself in the process and needing to be stretchered off?

Sounds interesting...

[Tal]

Eureka!