Tips for Tikay

[tikay]

Hopefully you are still up.

I have found another horse for your last free bet. 

Sea Siren is an Australian sprinter owned by Coolmore, and Australian sprinters have a good recent record at Ascot.

I don't know a huge amount about Australian form, but it seems he was out of form for a few races, but bounced back with a 2nd last time.  There doesn't seem to be much wrong with his 2012 form.  He is also best price with Hills, which is what we want.

Presumably he isn't here to make up the numbers, and the UK sprinters aren't up to much in my view.

Suggest £25 free bet on Sea Siren in the Golden Jubilee on the 22 June. 

Have a good trip.

Not being some mantic here, but given my ability to speed-read & misclick, I am assuming that is the DIAMOND Jubilee.

We have a £25 "FREE BET" with Wm Hill, Sea Siren, Diamond Jubilee, Royal Ascot, @ 12/1.

ON


20 Jun 2013 - 22nd Jun 2013 - Diamond Jubilee Stakes - Outright

Tip It

Sea Siren @ 12/1

Stake : £25.00


Estimated Returns : £

300.00



Transaction Reference:

O/0457483/0000471/F



Free bet redeemed

[Doobs]

Dawn Approach is 7/4 for the St James's Palace Stakes after Jim Bolger's shock decision to enter him in next week's Royal Ascot race.

The 2000 Guineas winner had been expected to miss the Royal meeting after everything went wrong for him in the Investec Derby, but having come out of that race well he's now set to drop back to a mile.

Given that they didn't include him in previous antepost lists, Coral and Sky Bet have confirmed that bets placed prior to today will be settled without Dawn Approach, who now challenges 13/8 shot Magician at the head of the betting.

Richard Hannon's Toronado is next at 5/1 with Paddy Power and it's 25/1 bar.


After Epsom, I am surprised to see it as low as 7/4. Am I wrong, or should all be fine and dandy back over a mile on a flat mile next week?

ie tell me not to lay it....

3 part answer in my view

1, If had had not run in the Derby, what price would you lay him at?

2, Do you think he didn't stay the Derby trip, or was there was something amiss?

3, Jim Bolger tends not to be a cavalier trainer, and wouldn't report his steed as being great, if he wasn't


Basically....no idea!

Name me a star 3yo colt who flopped in the Derby then came back to carry all before him at Ascot?

Generally they are back for the Eclipse, Goodwood etc etc are they not?

I guess something like this isn't going to happen often, so hard to day when they normally come back.  Marju was well beaten and won the St James Palace, I remember Ajdal emptying out at the top of the hill, (fairly sure he was 3rd, beaten around 7 lengths or so) and then crushing in 6 furlong sprints.  I don't know if he ran at Ascot, but won the July Cup at the beginning of July.  

[Dubai]

Looks such a tough betting event. Have read 4/5 different write ups today and they must have listed 16-20 different players.

What would your view be on Garcia, Top European, @ 11/1?

Strong tip Posted for that a day or two ago (10/1 when tipped) & I am currently inclined to get on, as the bet owner tipped a 9,783,042-1 golf double last week. 

I dreamt he beat Woods in a playoff recently. Treble max?

[tikay]

FML.

Bugger off to Vegas please, it'd be cheaper for Fred.

[Tal]

Match abandoned at Edgbaston. NZ get a point.

[tikay]

Match abandoned at Edgbaston. NZ get a point.

This is a good thing.

Prepare to TRADE

[Doobs]

Match abandoned at Edgbaston. NZ get a point.

So lolNZ have more points than the West Indies?  

[tikay]

New Zealand now 11/2, best price 6/1.

Think we are on at 12/1.


http://www.oddschecker.com/cricket/champions-trophy/winner

[tikay]

Match abandoned at Edgbaston. NZ get a point.

So lolNZ have more points than the West Indies?  

WI are now 12/1.

[Tal]

Bump incase it had been forgotten, but not if it had been considered and then declined.

First round draw sees Kramnik black against Carlsen. This might well be a good thing for two reasons: firstly, generally a quiet draw in the first round between two of the top seeds is the order of the day; and secondly, this then leaves Kramnik with equal white and black at worst.

Same price. 6.8.

Desperate times call for desperate measures, I'm told.

The eighth Tal Memorial starts on Thursday and I think it's fair to say it is already regarded as a Major in the chess calendar. This year's competition is as strong as ever:

No. Player                      Country Rating w-rank
1    Magnus Carlsen          Norway 2864      1
2    Vladimir Kramnik         Russia 2803        3
3    Viswanathan Anand     India 2786        4
4    Hikaru Nakamura         USA   2784        5
5    Sergey Karjakin           Russia 2782       7
6    Fabiano Caruana          Italy 2774         9
7    Alexander Morozevich  Russia 2760       10
8    Boris Gelfand              Israel 2755         12
9    Shakhriyar Mamedyarov Azerbaidjan 2753 14
10 Dmitry Andreikin            Russia 2713       29

Special rules

•Participants are required to follow the tournament schedule strictly – in case a player is one hour or more late for the game he is forfeited (i.e. no "zero tolerance" rule!).
•It is forbidden to offer a draw before and including move 40.
•Participants are required to comment on their games in the press center after each round unless, they have lost.
•It is forbidden for participants to have their mobile devices working in the playing zone. All electronic devices should be handled to the chief arbiter during the game.

Scoring system

The scoring is one point for a win, 0.5 points for a draw and 0 points for a loss. In case if the number of points is equal the following additional coefficients are used for places in the final table:

•Maximum number of games played with black pieces;
•Maximum number of wins;
•Direct encounter;
•Koja coefficient;
•Sonneborn-Berger score.

If all that's clear, we'll move on to the prices:

http://www.marathonbet.com/en/betting/Chess/

Carlsen has shortened from 6/5 since the market opened the other day to as good as even money. The big drifter from that is his rival for the world title in November, Vishy Anand. 15/1 is a heeeowge price, considering he has recently been showing signs of a return to form. He hasn't won a comp of this calibre for a good while, though and that is a consideration. He draws too many games and probably doesn't win often enough with Black to advocate a bet. The field has a number of players who like to push for wins and take risks, which suggests the more solid types like Anand might fall short of the winning post, even if they do pick up some rating points. A lot of people would love him to put in a big performance in this comp and it would give him some much-needed confidence, heading into November.

Carlsen hasn't played for a little while, since he got pipped to the post by Karjakin in Norway last month. He's had a few off-board issues, because there has been a lot of controversy over where the World Title match is going to be played. The governing body - not unlike FIFA - has made a decision seemingly not entirely for pure sporting reasons and it means that Anand will have home field advantage for the match in November. Carlsen and his people are furious and sought to appeal to get a vote in place, as Paris had submitted a proposal. But no.

Karjakin is the second favourite and he is in good form. He was arguably a little fortunate in Norway (that's harsh, but he got so far in the lead early that it was difficult for him to be caught. He was and then both he and Carlsen lost their last game, ensuring that he was able to cling on for the win) and won a blitz tournament the other day (he is very good at those), but deserves to be a high in the market. I'd just never put him above Kramnik.

Kramnik has had a break, unlike a few of the players in this comp (Nakamura for example looks completely burned out - I would expect him to finish this comp and head straight to Vegas to play in the WSOP, as he's known to be a keen poker player) and was recently spotted in the crowd at Roland Garros, cheering on Mr Djokovic against Nadal. He's loved in Russia and is playing with a new lease of life in the last 10 months. He's also good with the Black pieces, which, in a close tournament such as this is likely to be, might well be decisive. His opening knowledge should serve him well against a few of the lower seeds and he will likely pick up a few points against those struggling for form, owing to his patience and strong positional understanding. I think he is an excellent price.

Even money can't represent value when Carlsen isn't playing at the absolute top of his game and there are a few just beneath him who are starting to find their range. He's still the man to beat. It would be like taking MvG out of a darts comp and Taylor being even money; you can't say 'don't bet on him' but you know you aren't getting much bang for your buck when you do.

If you want my view on who I think represents the Next Best, it would be Kramnik without hesitation at 6.8. Fred fancy a score?

[tikay]

Click to see full-size image.

[Tal]

You've hardly aged a day

[JoeBeevers]

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What a great picture!

[bookiebasher]

Click to see full-size image.

What a great picture!

Yeah absolute classic , photo , people , and car 

[Tal]

Click to see full-size image.

What a great picture!

Would that have been after a Derby for the papers or just a professional shot? Any idea of year?