Desperate times call for desperate measures, I'm told.
The eighth Tal Memorial starts on Thursday and I think it's fair to say it is already regarded as a Major in the chess calendar. This year's competition is as strong as ever:
No. Player Country Rating w-rank
1 Magnus Carlsen Norway 2864 1
2 Vladimir Kramnik Russia 2803 3
3 Viswanathan Anand India 2786 4
4 Hikaru Nakamura USA 2784 5
5 Sergey Karjakin Russia 2782 7
6 Fabiano Caruana Italy 2774 9
7 Alexander Morozevich Russia 2760 10
8 Boris Gelfand Israel 2755 12
9 Shakhriyar Mamedyarov Azerbaidjan 2753 14
10 Dmitry Andreikin Russia 2713 29
Special rules •Participants are required to follow the tournament schedule strictly – in case a player is one hour or more late for the game he is forfeited (i.e. no "zero tolerance" rule!).
•It is forbidden to offer a draw before and including move 40.
•Participants are required to comment on their games in the press center after each round unless, they have lost.
•It is forbidden for participants to have their mobile devices working in the playing zone. All electronic devices should be handled to the chief arbiter during the game.
Scoring systemThe scoring is one point for a win, 0.5 points for a draw and 0 points for a loss. In case if the number of points is equal the following additional coefficients are used for places in the final table:
•Maximum number of games played with black pieces;
•Maximum number of wins;
•Direct encounter;
•Koja coefficient;
•Sonneborn-Berger score.
If all that's clear, we'll move on to the prices:
http://www.marathonbet.com/en/betting/Chess/Carlsen has shortened from 6/5 since the market opened the other day to as good as even money. The big drifter from that is his rival for the world title in November, Vishy Anand. 15/1 is a heeeowge price, considering he has recently been showing signs of a return to form. He hasn't won a comp of this calibre for a good while, though and that is a consideration. He draws too many games and probably doesn't win often enough with Black to advocate a bet. The field has a number of players who like to push for wins and take risks, which suggests the more solid types like Anand might fall short of the winning post, even if they do pick up some rating points. A lot of people would love him to put in a big performance in this comp and it would give him some much-needed confidence, heading into November.
Carlsen hasn't played for a little while, since he got pipped to the post by Karjakin in Norway last month. He's had a few off-board issues, because there has been a lot of controversy over where the World Title match is going to be played. The governing body - not unlike FIFA - has made a decision seemingly not entirely for pure sporting reasons and it means that Anand will have home field advantage for the match in November. Carlsen and his people are furious and sought to appeal to get a vote in place, as Paris had submitted a proposal. But no.
Karjakin is the second favourite and he is in good form. He was arguably a little fortunate in Norway (that's harsh, but he got so far in the lead early that it was difficult for him to be caught. He was and then both he and Carlsen lost their last game, ensuring that he was able to cling on for the win) and won a blitz tournament the other day (he is very good at those), but deserves to be a high in the market. I'd just never put him above Kramnik.
Kramnik has had a break, unlike a few of the players in this comp (Nakamura for example looks completely burned out - I would expect him to finish this comp and head straight to Vegas to play in the WSOP, as he's known to be a keen poker player) and was recently spotted in the crowd at Roland Garros, cheering on Mr Djokovic against Nadal. He's loved in Russia and is playing with a new lease of life in the last 10 months. He's also good with the Black pieces, which, in a close tournament such as this is likely to be, might well be decisive. His opening knowledge should serve him well against a few of the lower seeds and he will likely pick up a few points against those struggling for form, owing to his patience and strong positional understanding. I think he is an excellent price.
Even money can't represent value when Carlsen isn't playing at the absolute top of his game and there are a few just beneath him who are starting to find their range. He's still the man to beat. It would be like taking MvG out of a darts comp and Taylor being even money; you can't say 'don't bet on him' but you know you aren't getting much bang for your buck when you do.
If you want my view on who I think represents the Next Best, it would be Kramnik without hesitation at 6.8. Fred fancy a score?
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