Tips for Tikay

[aaron1867]

doobs, I'm not sure you have answered my question, according to Hillsyou can only have one free bet per race, so I'm at a loss to know why you would get two as betting the £10 4/1 would make the £25 bet just a loser if second?

You don't get 2 free bets.

Backing Bobs Worth at 2/1 with a free bet for 2nd is a good bet.
Backing Bobs Worth at 4/1 with no free bet for 2nd is very good.

You can either have one good and one very good bet or just one very good bet.  I'd rather have the former .

Ok tyty

[tikay]

doobs, I'm not sure you have answered my question, according to Hillsyou can only have one free bet per race, so I'm at a loss to know why you would get two as betting the £10 4/1 would make the £25 bet just a loser if second?

They are completely different things, Aaron.

The 2/1 via Mobile ONLY, for £25, has the "Free Bet if 2nd " concession.

Assume that the £10 @ 4/1 has no concession attached - other than a daft price.

[TightEnd]

I simply cannot have a boxer anywhere near SPOTY

Froch/Groves is a sham, complete set up fights,

the antics also put any casuals off, like fingernails on a blackboard to even watch the crap at press conferences etc

No one outside boxing fans and idiots prepared to shell out on PPV would recognise Groves in the street, Froch is unlikeable even if you do know him. Even got a poor reception at his home venue last night!

Boxing is never seen on terrestial at all, a massive factor in all SPOTY of the last ten years. Almost always got to have some terrestial exposure to get the votes in

Not a chance they'll be at the sharp end of this

[arbboy]

I'm going to sound stupid obviously, but I really think England are vastly underrated by everybody.

In terms of form, in 2013 we beat brazil once and drew with them once (in brazil too) they are the favorites for the tournament, in both games we had a heavily weakened team. We performed well in the group phase, coming through undefeated. We did however lose to Germany and chile in friendlies
 

In terms of squad I actually think we have a good team now. We have more athleticism, wingers with pace and finally a very good striker (top 5 in world on form) in Sturridge who could be the perfect foil for Rooney.

We are currently 33/1 to win which at a ew bet could be good (I'm unsure abit he to equate value)

Assuming we progress from our group we will likely face either Colombia or Greece which is probably the easiest if the second round draws. If we manage to get through that we will likely play Spain or Croatia, again one of the better draws with Croatia nothing to be too concerned about and Spain Being an ageing team.

Our players are in good form, we have a decent route through the finals, we are undefeated in qualification we have beaten and drawn against the favorites brazil in the last 12 months and there is no pressure from the press as for some reason everybody is very under confident.

I really think that the new crop of players ie sterling, Sturridge, baines, oxlade chamberlain, Barkley play with enough raw ability that combined with the more experienced players such as Gerard/Rooney that we could be a good threat as well as one of the biggest things which is form where our top players are currently playing really good.
Am I deluded?

I have actually been thinking about what price i would back England at recently for the world cup.  They went off 7/1 on bf in 2010 for the world cup (looking back was comical) are they really much worse as a team than in 2010?  I appreciate the event is in SA etc etc and all the history with European teams blah blah.  I personally don't buy into the history as it is based around a tiny sample size and eras when air travel was shocking and players were not used to flying around the world first class like they do in 2014.

The squad we end up taking could easily be totally raw and without fear of failure as this is the first WC in my lifetime where there is no expectation to win at all imo.  Obviously we are unlikely to win it all but at 33/1 or 40/1 the price does become tempting.

[Doobs]

Hills now.  £10 Bobs Worth 4/1 gogo

[tikay]

On!

£10 @ 4/1, Bobs Worth, Wm Hill.


14 Mar 14 / 10:00

Stake

Bobs Worth Enhanced Odds Special – Bobs Worth To Win The Gold Cup @ Guaranteed Price (4/1)

- £10.00

O/0457483/0000880/F



BET PLACED

[GreekWay]

Hills have taken 20k bets £10 worth each which means if Bobs Worth wins the Gold Cup it will cost them £1 million.

[pleno1]

I'm going to sound stupid obviously, but I really think England are vastly underrated by everybody.

In terms of form, in 2013 we beat brazil once and drew with them once (in brazil too) they are the favorites for the tournament, in both games we had a heavily weakened team. We performed well in the group phase, coming through undefeated. We did however lose to Germany and chile in friendlies
 

In terms of squad I actually think we have a good team now. We have more athleticism, wingers with pace and finally a very good striker (top 5 in world on form) in Sturridge who could be the perfect foil for Rooney.

We are currently 33/1 to win which at a ew bet could be good (I'm unsure abit he to equate value)

Assuming we progress from our group we will likely face either Colombia or Greece which is probably the easiest if the second round draws. If we manage to get through that we will likely play Spain or Croatia, again one of the better draws with Croatia nothing to be too concerned about and Spain Being an ageing team.

Our players are in good form, we have a decent route through the finals, we are undefeated in qualification we have beaten and drawn against the favorites brazil in the last 12 months and there is no pressure from the press as for some reason everybody is very under confident.

I really think that the new crop of players ie sterling, Sturridge, baines, oxlade chamberlain, Barkley play with enough raw ability that combined with the more experienced players such as Gerard/Rooney that we could be a good threat as well as one of the biggest things which is form where our top players are currently playing really good.
Am I deluded?

I have actually been thinking about what price i would back England at recently for the world cup.  They went off 7/1 on bf in 2010 for the world cup (looking back was comical) are they really much worse as a team than in 2010?  I appreciate the event is in SA etc etc and all the history with European teams blah blah.  I personally don't buy into the history as it is based around a tiny sample size and eras when air travel was shocking and players were not used to flying around the world first class like they do in 2014.

The squad we end up taking could easily be totally raw and without fear of failure as this is the first WC in my lifetime where there is no expectation to win at all imo.  Obviously we are unlikely to win it all but at 33/1 or 40/1 the price does become tempting.

This was the 2010 7/1 squad

1. David James
2. Glen Johnson
3. Ashley Cole
4. Steven Gerrard
5. Rio Ferdinand
6. John Terry
7. Aaron Lennon
8. Frank Lampard
9. Peter Crouch
10. Wayne Rooney
11. Joe Cole
12. Robert Green
13. Stephen Warnock
14. Gareth Barry
15. Matthew Upson
16. James Milner
17. Shaun Wright-Phillips
18. Jamie Carragher
19. Jermain Defoe
20. Ledley King
21. Emile Heskey
22. Michael Carrick
23. Joe Hart

[tikay]

Possible horses for the WH mobile offer Doobs?

15.20 Bobs Worth is 2/1 best price with them, and is obvious.
14.40 Briar Hill is 5/4 Hills, 2.7 Betfair, so think we need to duck it for now. Maybe they'll go better in the morning

Thinking about this more, I quite like Kings Palace in the 14.40, he is best price Hills, and the favourite looks too short; so think we should be on.
14.40 Kings Palace 7/2
15.20 Bobs Worth 2/1

Hills Mobile £25s on each the above. 

Can't see Tal wanting a double today, given some serious issues around apostrophes.   

We are on Bobs Worth, though it had tightened to 7/4, but still OK I think.

Kings Palace now 3/1 with WH, & not "Best Price" any more (my bad, for not getting on earlier), so should we leave that?


£25 @ 7/4, Bobs Worth, £25 FREE BET if 2nd, Wm Hill


14 Mar 14 / 10:18

Stake

3:20 Cheltenham – Bobs Worth @ Guaranteed Price (7/4)

- £25.00

O/0457483/0000881/F

BET PLACED

[TightEnd]

Henderson is 1/22 at the Cheltenham Festival and Nicholls 0/23.

Does this have any relevance at all when weighing up Bobs Worth and Silviniaco Conti, the two favourites on good (unsuitably fast?) ground in a (weak?) Gold Cup?

bump

is there no value in the outsiders against these two?

lay the front two?

[Doobs]

Henderson is 1/22 at the Cheltenham Festival and Nicholls 0/23.

Does this have any relevance at all when weighing up Bobs Worth and Silviniaco Conti, the two favourites on good (unsuitably fast?) ground in a (weak?) Gold Cup?

bump

is there no value in the outsiders against these two?

lay the front two?

Why are you focussed on short term records?  Surely much of that is variance?  I have heard it said that Nicholls is never going to win many big handicaps at the festival as he campaigns his horses fairly .  Henderson has a brilliant long term record at the festival too.

I don't think you have enough to start laying the front two.

[horseplayer]

Agree with that

Henderson has had a few placed at massive prices and a few days is no real indicator of trainer form.

Outside the front two how many can win a Gold cup? I would say the third in who fred has already backed the rest simply do not look good enough to win.

[TightEnd]

Nicholls hasn't won a chase at the festival since 2009? (i think thats correct)

at what point does the short term become a long term trend?

Silvanaco is a soft ground horse too? (isn't it?)

[scotty2hatty]

Small recommend for Romford's Golden Sprint competition which begins tonight - Sparta Flame @ 40/1 with Ladbrokes.

Lightly raced type who could be open to improvement but has performed well at the track in recent weeks regardless. Early pace is huge over the 400m and whilst there are plenty with good early in the competition Sparta Flame can match them, with 3:60s and 3:61s splits recently.

At Romford, generally speaking, under 24 seconds for the 400m is an indication of a top racer there and there are only a handful in the field that have those times, with none delivering them consistently. Sparta Flame posted 24:13s on his first look and a further 24:18s recently, so he's not far off.

Just seems the best value bet in the competition to me.

£10EW perhaps?

http://www.oddschecker.com/greyhounds/ante-post/romford-golden-sprint/winner

[Marky147]

Small recommend for Romford's Golden Sprint competition which begins tonight - Sparta Flame @ 40/1 with Ladbrokes.

Lightly raced type who could be open to improvement but has performed well at the track in recent weeks regardless. Early pace is huge over the 400m and whilst there are plenty with good early in the competition Sparta Flame can match them, with 3:60s and 3:61s splits recently.

At Romford, generally speaking, under 24 seconds for the 400m is an indication of a top racer there and there are only a handful in the field that have those times, with none delivering them consistently. Sparta Flame posted 24:13s on his first look and a further 24:18s recently, so he's not far off.

Just seems the best value bet in the competition to me.

£10EW perhaps?

http://www.oddschecker.com/greyhounds/ante-post/romford-golden-sprint/winner

Not missing this one!!

Cheers Scotty