Tips for Tikay

[horseplayer]

Infact had a quick delve into Hendersons 1/22 record.

12's, 10's, 33's, 3's, 20's, 12's all placed alongside the winner at 14/1.

If anything that is running a bit better than the sp's have predicted.

Just having a quick look at the prices Nicholls have started this week the expectation would be about 1 winner at best, again he has had one go very close (hampered would have won) one beaten a nose yesterday and others placed or close to it at big prices.

[arbboy]

Henderson is 1/22 at the Cheltenham Festival and Nicholls 0/23.

Does this have any relevance at all when weighing up Bobs Worth and Silviniaco Conti, the two favourites on good (unsuitably fast?) ground in a (weak?) Gold Cup?

bump

is there no value in the outsiders against these two?

lay the front two?

Why are you focussed on short term records?  Surely much of that is variance?  I have heard it said that Nicholls is never going to win many big handicaps at the festival as he campaigns his horses fairly .  Henderson has a brilliant long term record at the festival too.

I don't think you have enough to start laying the front two.

Agree with this.  Without factoring in what the sp's were for the 20 odd runners the 0-20 whatever record is meaningless.  If every horse was 6/4 or even money then it would be worrying if they were all 10-20/1 then its totally statistically normal to go on a run like that.  FWIW Bob's worth is my biggest bet of the meeting at 9/4 NRNB a few weeks ago.  This was before Bazza's awesome last few days.  He will be buzzing for this ride and never more confidence in his own abilities.  Not sure what price i would be laying it at but it wouldn't surprise me if it goes off shorter than 6/4.

[tikay]

Small recommend for Romford's Golden Sprint competition which begins tonight - Sparta Flame @ 40/1 with Ladbrokes.

Lightly raced type who could be open to improvement but has performed well at the track in recent weeks regardless. Early pace is huge over the 400m and whilst there are plenty with good early in the competition Sparta Flame can match them, with 3:60s and 3:61s splits recently.

At Romford, generally speaking, under 24 seconds for the 400m is an indication of a top racer there and there are only a handful in the field that have those times, with none delivering them consistently. Sparta Flame posted 24:13s on his first look and a further 24:18s recently, so he's not far off.

Just seems the best value bet in the competition to me.

£10EW perhaps?

http://www.oddschecker.com/greyhounds/ante-post/romford-golden-sprint/winner

Good work Scott, thank you, we are on.

Keep us updated, please.

£10 EW @ 40/1, (qtr odds, 1,2,3,4) Ladbrokes, Sparta Flame, Golden Sprint.


Golden Sprint Golden Sprint
2014-03-14 19:45:00
 
Market: Ante Post 
 
Selection: Sparta Flame @ 40/1 
 
Receipt No.: O/142640973/0000562
 
Placed at: 10:47 14/03/2014
 
Bet Type: Single
 
Stake Per Line: £10.00
 
Number of lines: 2
 
Stake: £20.00
 
 
BET PLACED

[arbboy]

I'm going to sound stupid obviously, but I really think England are vastly underrated by everybody.

In terms of form, in 2013 we beat brazil once and drew with them once (in brazil too) they are the favorites for the tournament, in both games we had a heavily weakened team. We performed well in the group phase, coming through undefeated. We did however lose to Germany and chile in friendlies
 

In terms of squad I actually think we have a good team now. We have more athleticism, wingers with pace and finally a very good striker (top 5 in world on form) in Sturridge who could be the perfect foil for Rooney.

We are currently 33/1 to win which at a ew bet could be good (I'm unsure abit he to equate value)

Assuming we progress from our group we will likely face either Colombia or Greece which is probably the easiest if the second round draws. If we manage to get through that we will likely play Spain or Croatia, again one of the better draws with Croatia nothing to be too concerned about and Spain Being an ageing team.

Our players are in good form, we have a decent route through the finals, we are undefeated in qualification we have beaten and drawn against the favorites brazil in the last 12 months and there is no pressure from the press as for some reason everybody is very under confident.

I really think that the new crop of players ie sterling, Sturridge, baines, oxlade chamberlain, Barkley play with enough raw ability that combined with the more experienced players such as Gerard/Rooney that we could be a good threat as well as one of the biggest things which is form where our top players are currently playing really good.
Am I deluded?

I have actually been thinking about what price i would back England at recently for the world cup.  They went off 7/1 on bf in 2010 for the world cup (looking back was comical) are they really much worse as a team than in 2010?  I appreciate the event is in SA etc etc and all the history with European teams blah blah.  I personally don't buy into the history as it is based around a tiny sample size and eras when air travel was shocking and players were not used to flying around the world first class like they do in 2014.

The squad we end up taking could easily be totally raw and without fear of failure as this is the first WC in my lifetime where there is no expectation to win at all imo.  Obviously we are unlikely to win it all but at 33/1 or 40/1 the price does become tempting.

This was the 2010 7/1 squad

1. David James
2. Glen Johnson
3. Ashley Cole
4. Steven Gerrard
5. Rio Ferdinand
6. John Terry
7. Aaron Lennon
8. Frank Lampard
9. Peter Crouch
10. Wayne Rooney
11. Joe Cole
12. Robert Green
13. Stephen Warnock
14. Gareth Barry
15. Matthew Upson
16. James Milner
17. Shaun Wright-Phillips
18. Jamie Carragher
19. Jermain Defoe
20. Ledley King
21. Emile Heskey
22. Michael Carrick
23. Joe Hart

One of the few times you look back and think 'f*ck bankroll management and why didn't i lay that 7/1 to lose the lot'

[tikay]

Draws in the Whitlock v wright and Barney vThornton matches both 9/2 with unibet/888sport if you can get on.  Would recommend £50 on each as singles.

Apologies for missing this last night. I was pokering, & I find it incredibly hard if I don't concentrate properly when I've got 5 or 6 tables on the go. I know, I know, you used to do 20 Tables, but once I start surfing forums, I completely lose my focus.

Well done, anyway, & I hope a few others got on.

Weird, after that discussion we had last week about the logic of betting the Draw in PL Darts matches, too.

Fred must have missed £300 of winners this week due to one thing or another. Still, I'm up well over £13 in my poker, almost £14 in fact......

[tikay]

Haven't had the chance to do any updates on the Tirreno-Adriatico, as I've been out walking in the Lake District and got holed up overnight at the Wasdale Head Inn. No internet as my phone's wifi isn't working. Even had to rely on Mere's random picks for the Chelts Tipster Comp (even worse than mine).

Anyway, just to remind everyone, we've backed Quintana @ 5/1 (I think) and Moreno @ 100/1. Not much happened today, with all riders (bar one) getting the same time, due to the finish being decided by a bunch sprint.

In the team TT yesterday, OPQS (with Kwiatkowski and Uran) expectedly won the stage, with Orica-GreenEdge behind ... and encouragingly, Movistar (with Quintana) in third place ... 18s behind first. This is good news for our main bet, as I would have been happy with anything under half a minute. If Quintana is in good form, he should easily be able to make up the time on OPQS' two main threats in the mountains.

As for our saver bet, Moreno's team (Team Katusha) was not very impressive, finishing more than a minute back. I wouldn't write him off just yet, as I'm still expecting big things from him on the climbs (and especially the second-to-last stage).

Not many prices up yet, but Quintana is in to 2/1 at 888, so we're moving in the right direction. If cycling had more liquidity, I'd be a millionaire by now.

I'd swap with you Wetty!

Thanks for the Update, fingers crossed.

[Doobs]

I'm going to sound stupid obviously, but I really think England are vastly underrated by everybody.

In terms of form, in 2013 we beat brazil once and drew with them once (in brazil too) they are the favorites for the tournament, in both games we had a heavily weakened team. We performed well in the group phase, coming through undefeated. We did however lose to Germany and chile in friendlies
 

In terms of squad I actually think we have a good team now. We have more athleticism, wingers with pace and finally a very good striker (top 5 in world on form) in Sturridge who could be the perfect foil for Rooney.

We are currently 33/1 to win which at a ew bet could be good (I'm unsure abit he to equate value)

Assuming we progress from our group we will likely face either Colombia or Greece which is probably the easiest if the second round draws. If we manage to get through that we will likely play Spain or Croatia, again one of the better draws with Croatia nothing to be too concerned about and Spain Being an ageing team.

Our players are in good form, we have a decent route through the finals, we are undefeated in qualification we have beaten and drawn against the favorites brazil in the last 12 months and there is no pressure from the press as for some reason everybody is very under confident.

I really think that the new crop of players ie sterling, Sturridge, baines, oxlade chamberlain, Barkley play with enough raw ability that combined with the more experienced players such as Gerard/Rooney that we could be a good threat as well as one of the biggest things which is form where our top players are currently playing really good.
Am I deluded?

I have actually been thinking about what price i would back England at recently for the world cup.  They went off 7/1 on bf in 2010 for the world cup (looking back was comical) are they really much worse as a team than in 2010?  I appreciate the event is in SA etc etc and all the history with European teams blah blah.  I personally don't buy into the history as it is based around a tiny sample size and eras when air travel was shocking and players were not used to flying around the world first class like they do in 2014.

The squad we end up taking could easily be totally raw and without fear of failure as this is the first WC in my lifetime where there is no expectation to win at all imo.  Obviously we are unlikely to win it all but at 33/1 or 40/1 the price does become tempting.

This was the 2010 7/1 squad

1. David James
2. Glen Johnson
3. Ashley Cole
4. Steven Gerrard
5. Rio Ferdinand
6. John Terry
7. Aaron Lennon
8. Frank Lampard
9. Peter Crouch
10. Wayne Rooney
11. Joe Cole
12. Robert Green
13. Stephen Warnock
14. Gareth Barry
15. Matthew Upson
16. James Milner
17. Shaun Wright-Phillips
18. Jamie Carragher
19. Jermain Defoe
20. Ledley King
21. Emile Heskey
22. Michael Carrick
23. Joe Hart

One of the few times you look back and think 'f*ck bankroll management and why didn't i lay that 7/1 to lose the lot'

This goes some way to explaining it, what price to get out of this group?

Group C: England, USA, Algeria, Slovenia

[arbboy]

Draws in the Whitlock v wright and Barney vThornton matches both 9/2 with unibet/888sport if you can get on.  Would recommend £50 on each as singles.

Apologies for missing this last night. I was pokering, & I find it incredibly hard if I don't concentrate properly when I've got 5 or 6 tables on the go. I know, I know, you used to do 20 Tables, but once I start surfing forums, I completely lose my focus.

Well done, anyway, & I hope a few others got on.

Weird, after that discussioin we had last week about the logic of betting the Draw in PL Darts matches, too.

Fred must have missed £300 of winners this week due to one thing or another. Still, I'm up well over £13 in my poker, almost £14 in fact......

No worries sure a few of the reg's got on. 20 table days are long gone thankfully for me.  I don't miss it at all! 4 tables of dtd sats is my limit nowadays online.

[arbboy]

I'm going to sound stupid obviously, but I really think England are vastly underrated by everybody.

In terms of form, in 2013 we beat brazil once and drew with them once (in brazil too) they are the favorites for the tournament, in both games we had a heavily weakened team. We performed well in the group phase, coming through undefeated. We did however lose to Germany and chile in friendlies
 

In terms of squad I actually think we have a good team now. We have more athleticism, wingers with pace and finally a very good striker (top 5 in world on form) in Sturridge who could be the perfect foil for Rooney.

We are currently 33/1 to win which at a ew bet could be good (I'm unsure abit he to equate value)

Assuming we progress from our group we will likely face either Colombia or Greece which is probably the easiest if the second round draws. If we manage to get through that we will likely play Spain or Croatia, again one of the better draws with Croatia nothing to be too concerned about and Spain Being an ageing team.

Our players are in good form, we have a decent route through the finals, we are undefeated in qualification we have beaten and drawn against the favorites brazil in the last 12 months and there is no pressure from the press as for some reason everybody is very under confident.

I really think that the new crop of players ie sterling, Sturridge, baines, oxlade chamberlain, Barkley play with enough raw ability that combined with the more experienced players such as Gerard/Rooney that we could be a good threat as well as one of the biggest things which is form where our top players are currently playing really good.
Am I deluded?

I have actually been thinking about what price i would back England at recently for the world cup.  They went off 7/1 on bf in 2010 for the world cup (looking back was comical) are they really much worse as a team than in 2010?  I appreciate the event is in SA etc etc and all the history with European teams blah blah.  I personally don't buy into the history as it is based around a tiny sample size and eras when air travel was shocking and players were not used to flying around the world first class like they do in 2014.

The squad we end up taking could easily be totally raw and without fear of failure as this is the first WC in my lifetime where there is no expectation to win at all imo.  Obviously we are unlikely to win it all but at 33/1 or 40/1 the price does become tempting.

This was the 2010 7/1 squad

1. David James
2. Glen Johnson
3. Ashley Cole
4. Steven Gerrard
5. Rio Ferdinand
6. John Terry
7. Aaron Lennon
8. Frank Lampard
9. Peter Crouch
10. Wayne Rooney
11. Joe Cole
12. Robert Green
13. Stephen Warnock
14. Gareth Barry
15. Matthew Upson
16. James Milner
17. Shaun Wright-Phillips
18. Jamie Carragher
19. Jermain Defoe
20. Ledley King
21. Emile Heskey
22. Michael Carrick
23. Joe Hart

One of the few times you look back and think 'f*ck bankroll management and why didn't i lay that 7/1 to lose the lot'

This goes some way to explaining it, what price to get out of this group?

Group C: England, USA, Algeria, Slovenia

I would look at it another way and say 'if england made the quarter finals are we really a flip to win the 1/4's, semi and final which is a 7/1 treble?'  Answer would be no and we certainly weren't 1.01 to make the qtr's pre event.

[Chompy]

Top up please, another £50 on MK Dons top six if someone can get us on with PP @ 9/1?

Win or lose, this is the bet of the year so far for me, so we have to hit it a bit harder.

[arbboy]

Does anyone know if

1)bf has a cheltenham top jockey market (i can't find it anywhere)
2)the current standings table after 3 days and the tie breaker rules.  I assume it goes on 2nd's then 3rd's if tied for winners.

ty in advance

[tikay]

Superb article just out

http://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/0/formula1/26558005



The Australian Grand Prix comes with the promise of a new competitive order, unfamiliar names at the front and an end to the bullet-proof reliability that has come to characterise F1 in the modern age.

But the main reason for Red Bull's struggles has been their engine supplier. Renault's attempts to build a 1.6-litre V6 turbo hybrid 'power-unit' to the most complex engine formula ever used in F1 have fallen well short of those of rivals Mercedes and, to a lesser extent, Ferrari.

--


Judging by winter testing, it is questionable whether any Renault-powered car will be able to make it to the end of the race. And the French company's two best teams - Red Bull and Lotus - have had comfortably the worst pre-season of any.

One senior figure with in-depth knowledge of Renault's situation predicted this weekend would be "ugly" for the French manufacturer.

--

The Mercedes engine is producing much more power for a given amount of fuel - the crucial ingredient in F1 this year following the introduction of a maximum limit of 100kg of fuel for a race. It has been lasting much longer, too.

Red Bull's car, all the drivers who have watched it on track agree, may well still be the class of the field in terms of aerodynamic downforce. But under this new set of rules engine performance is expected to be the dominant factor in performance, initially at least.

As the engine specifications are frozen for the year, in theory Red Bull are facing a season in the midfield. In practice, the rules allow manufacturers to apply to make changes on grounds of "cost-saving, reliability and safety". These are a backdoor way of making performance upgrades, and all three engine builders will be trying to exploit them to the limit.

That is just one of several potential areas of controversy this season. There will doubtless be more as the season develops, and perhaps already this weekend. But so also will there be the joy of novelty and surprise.

--

Fresh from the worst season in their history in 2013, Williams have made a dramatic step forward, only part of which can be attributed to switching from Renault to Mercedes engines.

The new car appears genuinely competitive and they and their unheralded but extremely talented driver Valtteri Bottas could be in line for a sensational start to the season.

The Finn's team-mate Felipe Massa set the fastest overall lap time in the two final tests in Bahrain but the word is that it was Bottas who was the more impressive of the two, and by a considerable margin.

"We have a good feeling," Bottas said. "We've seen the car is reliable, good quality, well built and quite quick.

"We have made some good progress as a team. What's unknown is how much quicker everyone else can go."

Williams showed their true absolute pace in testing and they doubt Mercedes did the same. So they don't believe they can out-qualify the factory Mercedes cars of Lewis Hamilton and Nico Rosberg here. But over a race distance Williams could be a real threat. What a turnaround that would be.

Of the other Mercedes teams, the impression so far is that Force India are in better shape than McLaren, although that may be because McLaren saved their upgrade package for this weekend.

I think we have missed the Massa boat, despite it seemingly stopping at our pier several times.   Think it is too late for the Aussie Grand Prix for the Williams too.

I think there is still some possible value in Bottas at 50/1 for the Championship, suggest a tenner each way at 50/1.   We can get it with B365, totesport, sportingbet and if desperate 3p e/w with industry giant, Lolbrokes.

Thanks.

I managed to get on late last night with BetFred, @ 50/1. Generally 33/1 this morning, oooh.

FI Drivers championship, Bottas, £10 EW @ 50/1, ione fifth, 1,2,3, BetFred, Doobs.


13/03/2014 20:58:38

302/
328

W:10.00 S:10.00

Single

World Drivers Championship 2014/Outright Winner

Bottas, Valtteri



50/1

Open

O

£20.00

 


BET PLACED

[Doobs]

I'm going to sound stupid obviously, but I really think England are vastly underrated by everybody.

In terms of form, in 2013 we beat brazil once and drew with them once (in brazil too) they are the favorites for the tournament, in both games we had a heavily weakened team. We performed well in the group phase, coming through undefeated. We did however lose to Germany and chile in friendlies
 

In terms of squad I actually think we have a good team now. We have more athleticism, wingers with pace and finally a very good striker (top 5 in world on form) in Sturridge who could be the perfect foil for Rooney.

We are currently 33/1 to win which at a ew bet could be good (I'm unsure abit he to equate value)

Assuming we progress from our group we will likely face either Colombia or Greece which is probably the easiest if the second round draws. If we manage to get through that we will likely play Spain or Croatia, again one of the better draws with Croatia nothing to be too concerned about and Spain Being an ageing team.

Our players are in good form, we have a decent route through the finals, we are undefeated in qualification we have beaten and drawn against the favorites brazil in the last 12 months and there is no pressure from the press as for some reason everybody is very under confident.

I really think that the new crop of players ie sterling, Sturridge, baines, oxlade chamberlain, Barkley play with enough raw ability that combined with the more experienced players such as Gerard/Rooney that we could be a good threat as well as one of the biggest things which is form where our top players are currently playing really good.
Am I deluded?

I have actually been thinking about what price i would back England at recently for the world cup.  They went off 7/1 on bf in 2010 for the world cup (looking back was comical) are they really much worse as a team than in 2010?  I appreciate the event is in SA etc etc and all the history with European teams blah blah.  I personally don't buy into the history as it is based around a tiny sample size and eras when air travel was shocking and players were not used to flying around the world first class like they do in 2014.

The squad we end up taking could easily be totally raw and without fear of failure as this is the first WC in my lifetime where there is no expectation to win at all imo.  Obviously we are unlikely to win it all but at 33/1 or 40/1 the price does become tempting.

This was the 2010 7/1 squad

1. David James
2. Glen Johnson
3. Ashley Cole
4. Steven Gerrard
5. Rio Ferdinand
6. John Terry
7. Aaron Lennon
8. Frank Lampard
9. Peter Crouch
10. Wayne Rooney
11. Joe Cole
12. Robert Green
13. Stephen Warnock
14. Gareth Barry
15. Matthew Upson
16. James Milner
17. Shaun Wright-Phillips
18. Jamie Carragher
19. Jermain Defoe
20. Ledley King
21. Emile Heskey
22. Michael Carrick
23. Joe Hart

One of the few times you look back and think 'f*ck bankroll management and why didn't i lay that 7/1 to lose the lot'

This goes some way to explaining it, what price to get out of this group?

Group C: England, USA, Algeria, Slovenia

I would look at it another way and say 'if england made the quarter finals are we really a flip to win the 1/4's, semi and final which is a 7/1 treble?'  Answer would be no and we certainly weren't 1.01 to make the qtr's pre event.

Not saying 7/1 was value, I can just see how it happened.  It is much easier to see now that SWP isn't that great.  Crouchy still a legend obviously.

I quite like the 33/1 too

[arbboy]

I'm going to sound stupid obviously, but I really think England are vastly underrated by everybody.

In terms of form, in 2013 we beat brazil once and drew with them once (in brazil too) they are the favorites for the tournament, in both games we had a heavily weakened team. We performed well in the group phase, coming through undefeated. We did however lose to Germany and chile in friendlies
 

In terms of squad I actually think we have a good team now. We have more athleticism, wingers with pace and finally a very good striker (top 5 in world on form) in Sturridge who could be the perfect foil for Rooney.

We are currently 33/1 to win which at a ew bet could be good (I'm unsure abit he to equate value)

Assuming we progress from our group we will likely face either Colombia or Greece which is probably the easiest if the second round draws. If we manage to get through that we will likely play Spain or Croatia, again one of the better draws with Croatia nothing to be too concerned about and Spain Being an ageing team.

Our players are in good form, we have a decent route through the finals, we are undefeated in qualification we have beaten and drawn against the favorites brazil in the last 12 months and there is no pressure from the press as for some reason everybody is very under confident.

I really think that the new crop of players ie sterling, Sturridge, baines, oxlade chamberlain, Barkley play with enough raw ability that combined with the more experienced players such as Gerard/Rooney that we could be a good threat as well as one of the biggest things which is form where our top players are currently playing really good.
Am I deluded?

I have actually been thinking about what price i would back England at recently for the world cup.  They went off 7/1 on bf in 2010 for the world cup (looking back was comical) are they really much worse as a team than in 2010?  I appreciate the event is in SA etc etc and all the history with European teams blah blah.  I personally don't buy into the history as it is based around a tiny sample size and eras when air travel was shocking and players were not used to flying around the world first class like they do in 2014.

The squad we end up taking could easily be totally raw and without fear of failure as this is the first WC in my lifetime where there is no expectation to win at all imo.  Obviously we are unlikely to win it all but at 33/1 or 40/1 the price does become tempting.

This was the 2010 7/1 squad

1. David James
2. Glen Johnson
3. Ashley Cole
4. Steven Gerrard
5. Rio Ferdinand
6. John Terry
7. Aaron Lennon
8. Frank Lampard
9. Peter Crouch
10. Wayne Rooney
11. Joe Cole
12. Robert Green
13. Stephen Warnock
14. Gareth Barry
15. Matthew Upson
16. James Milner
17. Shaun Wright-Phillips
18. Jamie Carragher
19. Jermain Defoe
20. Ledley King
21. Emile Heskey
22. Michael Carrick
23. Joe Hart

One of the few times you look back and think 'f*ck bankroll management and why didn't i lay that 7/1 to lose the lot'

This goes some way to explaining it, what price to get out of this group?

Group C: England, USA, Algeria, Slovenia

I would look at it another way and say 'if england made the quarter finals are we really a flip to win the 1/4's, semi and final which is a 7/1 treble?'  Answer would be no and we certainly weren't 1.01 to make the qtr's pre event.

Not saying 7/1 was value, I can just see how it happened.  It is much easier to see now that SWP isn't that great.  Crouchy still a legend obviously.

I quite like the 33/1 too

Stokesfinest!!!!!!!

[tikay]

Top up please, another £50 on MK Dons top six if someone can get us on with PP @ 9/1?

Win or lose, this is the bet of the year so far for me, so we have to hit it a bit harder.

Marv. Now you've deserted the Poshies, you are Dons mad.

Incidentally, your mate Luther was playing PLO8 cash on my Table last night. Luther, PLO8! Bit complicated for him, I'd have thought. But he plonked himself down, abused us all, dissed Congawonga, then left.  

Anyway, the bet.

I can get 8/1 with Corals, that any good? PP offered me £0.43.

I can't keep asking other folks to get my bets on with PP in truth, if their Account gets Restricted because of me, it'd be awful.

I've taken £50 @ 8/1 anyway, & will keep it off-Thread if you think it is too short for Fred.

Let me know, please.