Tips for Tikay

[Tal]

Is there any footie on tonight?

No.

[Tal]

Paddy Power goes five places for the County Hurdle tomorrow.

Sky bet, too.

[arbboy]

Draws in the Whitlock v wright and Barney vThornton matches both 9/2 with unibet/888sport if you can get on.  Would recommend £50 on each as singles.

Top stuff mate, but I wish you'd have pinged this up on Skype

You won enough today already!!!!!

[Doobs]

Possible horses for the WH mobile offer Doobs?

15.20 Bobs Worth is 2/1 best price with them, and is obvious.
14.40 Briar Hill is 5/4 Hills, 2.7 Betfair, so think we need to duck it for now. Maybe they'll go better in the morning

Just been in Hills to put the Bobs Worth bet on, and they are 4/1 Bobs Worth from 10am tomorrow max £10.  Presumably this will go in 3 minutes, so people need to be quick.

If you use a mobile, can you combine the above offer with the mobile offer?

Yes, but don't.  The 2/1 with the offer is still good, and the £10 without it is very good.  If you do the £10 first you only get a £10 free bet back if 2nd rather than a £25 one.  Unless you are in a very bad way financially then I'd just try and do both.   

[GreekWay]

Possible horses for the WH mobile offer Doobs?

15.20 Bobs Worth is 2/1 best price with them, and is obvious.
14.40 Briar Hill is 5/4 Hills, 2.7 Betfair, so think we need to duck it for now. Maybe they'll go better in the morning

Just been in Hills to put the Bobs Worth bet on, and they are 4/1 Bobs Worth from 10am tomorrow max £10.  Presumably this will go in 3 minutes, so people need to be quick.

If you use a mobile, can you combine the above offer with the mobile offer?

Yes, but don't.  The 2/1 with the offer is still good, and the £10 without it is very good.  If you do the £10 first you only get a £10 free bet back if 2nd rather than a £25 one.  Unless you are in a very bad way financially then I'd just try and do both.   

Would you recommend to back Silviniaco Conti for the WH mobile offer?

[Doobs]

Possible horses for the WH mobile offer Doobs?

15.20 Bobs Worth is 2/1 best price with them, and is obvious.
14.40 Briar Hill is 5/4 Hills, 2.7 Betfair, so think we need to duck it for now. Maybe they'll go better in the morning

Just been in Hills to put the Bobs Worth bet on, and they are 4/1 Bobs Worth from 10am tomorrow max £10.  Presumably this will go in 3 minutes, so people need to be quick.

If you use a mobile, can you combine the above offer with the mobile offer?

Yes, but don't.  The 2/1 with the offer is still good, and the £10 without it is very good.  If you do the £10 first you only get a £10 free bet back if 2nd rather than a £25 one.  Unless you are in a very bad way financially then I'd just try and do both.   

Would you recommend to back Silviniaco Conti for the WH mobile offer?

Not on the maths. Hills are top price Bobs Worth, not close on Silvianiaco Conti (3/1 vs 7/2 best).  If I wanted to back SC, I'd hope someone is going to offer me 4/1 in the morning or just take the 7/2 elsewhere.

[Doobs]

Possible horses for the WH mobile offer Doobs?

15.20 Bobs Worth is 2/1 best price with them, and is obvious.
14.40 Briar Hill is 5/4 Hills, 2.7 Betfair, so think we need to duck it for now. Maybe they'll go better in the morning

Thinking about this more, I quite like Kings Palace in the 14.40, he is best price Hills, and the favourite looks too short; so think we should be on.
14.40 Kings Palace 7/2
15.20 Bobs Worth 2/1

Hills Mobile £25s on each the above. 

Can't see Tal wanting a double today, given some serious issues around apostrophes.   

[gherkin]

Not had a chance to look at this thread for a couple of weeks so not sure if there has been any mention of the T20 world cup yet.

For what it's worth the only 2 teams I could back at the current prices are Sri Lanka at 7/1 (/BetSafe) and Pakistan at 17/2 (Matchbook). 

Australia deserve to be favourites, and whilst I wouldn't lay them at 7/2, it's hard to see much value at that price. 

No idea why India are 4/1 at most places, you could double that and it wouldn't be much more than half-decent value IMO.  The fact that they are highest priced on the exchanges shows there are others who share my view and willing to lay them at 6's.  They are still part way through rebuilding their team and the recent results have been poor.  Their death bowling is a big weakness and they have the same problem as England in that they don't have anything like a settled team.  They might gel during the tournament but there have been no signs so far and the fact they are significantly shorter than Pakistan and SL is ridiculous.  I'll be looking for various spots to lay them during the world cup

Aside from the 7 over game the other night, I haven't watched South Africa in a T20 for a while to be honest.  Looking over their recent results and the squad you would think they have a great chance but we all know their record in the sub-continent is poor.  I won't be backing them at 15/2

In the last year the West Indies have played 9 T20s (against relatively weak opposition - Ireland, NZ, Pakistan and England) and only won 3 of them.  They didn't field their best team in any of them but I've not been convinced by them in this recent series.  If a team gets hold of Narine and/or gets Gayle out early then they are there for the taking.  Hard to see any value at 8/1.

Anyone else, including NZ and England, have little to no chance.  The fact both those teams are only priced slightly higher than Pakistan and Sri Lanka is bizarre.  New Zealand have an awful record on these tracks and England's isn't much better.  I guess at least NZ are in good form - a semi final spot wouldn't surprise me but winning it certainly would!

That leaves Pakistan and Sri Lanka.  Aside from being able to build good totals on subcontinent tracks, they have have the added bonus of having the best 2 bowling attacks to exploit the teams who can't play spin.  Unlike India, they have pace bowlers who can back them up without going round the park.  I was expecting to see Sri Lanka around 9/2 and Pakistan 11/2 to be honest, so either I've got my numbers very wrong or the bookies do. 

Not sure if Tighty has already done a write up already, if so it will probably be better than this!  If not and you are looking for a bit of action on the tournament winner then my suggestion is Sri Lanka or Pakistan

[McGlashan]

Ulul whoever is was that needed Katgary.

Think we need to be snapping up 10-1 Lewis Hamilton for SPOTY, as recced by someone earlier?

I don't really agree with this

think I prefer Rory at 16/1, four majors and a Glenegles ryder cup to go at

Rory is popular, and Lewis very marmite. Didn't win it in 2008 when he won an exciting championship, all on terrestial tv.....

Long time Lurker, first time poster (hate that its to do with SPOTY).  

Lewis only lost it in 08 because the Sir Chris of Hoy got 3 golds in Beijing (first time for a Brit to get 3 Golds in 1 Olympics), looking at previous F1 contenders for SPOTY and you see that Button(09) lost out to Ryan Giggs when he had what most thought would be his last season in the prem league (and so a massive crowd favourite).  Before that then you have Lewis again in 07 when he came close but was pipped to the championship by the alcoholic Finn.  Going back further and we start talking about Hill, Mansell and Stewart, all of which won it.

Rory looked vulnerable the other week when massively clear and he clutched defeat from the jaws of victory.

Unless we win the World Cup, I don't see anyone else winning SPOTY this year.

Plus, I'm pretty sure I saw Lewis at 20/1 e/w 1,2,3 in the laddies shop today.

This has got to be the weakest SPOTY field in my lifetime i would say.  If Lewis can't win it this year surely he will never win it.  Anyone think Froch is a big price 100/1 ew 1/4 1,2,3 at coral when others at 1/5 1,2,3???  Has been done for £50 at 65/1 on bf already.  Surely in such a weak field if he beats Groves which he is odds on to do he can't be a massive price to either a)retire there and then or b) have a fight later in the year in vegas and then retire.  Either way in such a weak year 100/1 looks big surely?

Another interesting fact no winner has ever retained the trophy the following year.  Is this actually that significant given the fact the majority of winners are from world cups/atheltic world champs/oly games etc etc its very hard to go back to back for the majority of winners as they don't have an event they can win the following year? 

Carl Froch is an interesting suggestion. Over in the boxing thread the general consensus amongst non dedicated Froch fanboys is that ever since the build up to the first Groves fight he's been acting like an ungracious pratt. Then again the award is not voted for by boxing fans. He's been a world champion for 4 years now, is in the twilight of his career and has a brawling fighting style that can be widely appreciated.

Perhaps we can get a big hint from Skybet who go an industry shortest 22-1 on him. They know better than any other bookie how big the Groves fight will be. And they know the Sky Sports PR machine will be working overtime in promoting Carl Froch. For example tonight Carl Froch got wheeled out at the Premier League darts in Nottingham, albeit to a mixed reaction. There's a big crossover between darts fans and boxing fans, plus the darts crowd may of been mildly inebriated so lets not read too much into their reaction.

[BorntoBubble]

Superb article just out

http://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/0/formula1/26558005



The Australian Grand Prix comes with the promise of a new competitive order, unfamiliar names at the front and an end to the bullet-proof reliability that has come to characterise F1 in the modern age.

But the main reason for Red Bull's struggles has been their engine supplier. Renault's attempts to build a 1.6-litre V6 turbo hybrid 'power-unit' to the most complex engine formula ever used in F1 have fallen well short of those of rivals Mercedes and, to a lesser extent, Ferrari.

--


Judging by winter testing, it is questionable whether any Renault-powered car will be able to make it to the end of the race. And the French company's two best teams - Red Bull and Lotus - have had comfortably the worst pre-season of any.

One senior figure with in-depth knowledge of Renault's situation predicted this weekend would be "ugly" for the French manufacturer.

--

The Mercedes engine is producing much more power for a given amount of fuel - the crucial ingredient in F1 this year following the introduction of a maximum limit of 100kg of fuel for a race. It has been lasting much longer, too.

Red Bull's car, all the drivers who have watched it on track agree, may well still be the class of the field in terms of aerodynamic downforce. But under this new set of rules engine performance is expected to be the dominant factor in performance, initially at least.

As the engine specifications are frozen for the year, in theory Red Bull are facing a season in the midfield. In practice, the rules allow manufacturers to apply to make changes on grounds of "cost-saving, reliability and safety". These are a backdoor way of making performance upgrades, and all three engine builders will be trying to exploit them to the limit.

That is just one of several potential areas of controversy this season. There will doubtless be more as the season develops, and perhaps already this weekend. But so also will there be the joy of novelty and surprise.

--

Fresh from the worst season in their history in 2013, Williams have made a dramatic step forward, only part of which can be attributed to switching from Renault to Mercedes engines.

The new car appears genuinely competitive and they and their unheralded but extremely talented driver Valtteri Bottas could be in line for a sensational start to the season.

The Finn's team-mate Felipe Massa set the fastest overall lap time in the two final tests in Bahrain but the word is that it was Bottas who was the more impressive of the two, and by a considerable margin.

"We have a good feeling," Bottas said. "We've seen the car is reliable, good quality, well built and quite quick.

"We have made some good progress as a team. What's unknown is how much quicker everyone else can go."

Williams showed their true absolute pace in testing and they doubt Mercedes did the same. So they don't believe they can out-qualify the factory Mercedes cars of Lewis Hamilton and Nico Rosberg here. But over a race distance Williams could be a real threat. What a turnaround that would be.

Of the other Mercedes teams, the impression so far is that Force India are in better shape than McLaren, although that may be because McLaren saved their upgrade package for this weekend.

I think we have missed the Massa boat, despite it seemingly stopping at our pier several times.   Think it is too late for the Aussie Grand Prix for the Williams too.

I think there is still some possible value in Bottas at 50/1 for the Championship, suggest a tenner each way at 50/1.   We can get it with B365, totesport, sportingbet and if desperate 3p e/w with industry giant, Lolbrokes.

Did this get missed?  We need to back it soon,  I think first practice starts v soon.  We missed bet365, but still available at 2 bookmakers and Ladbrokes.

02:50:
 
Pastor Maldonado is coasting around, with just one hand on the steering wheel, when he suddenly skates off track and bounces across the gravel before rejoining.

02:48:
 
Romain Grosjean is the only driver yet to have made an appearance in this session. But based on the fact his Lotus is still up on the jacks, it's doubtful he'll make it out at all with just 12 minutes remaining.

Bet looks better and better.

[Rubbish2407]

More of that beats Annie Power in the World Hurdle.



Fred was on.

Felix Yonger came nowhere.



I was on.

Fingal Bay won a close one.

Click to see full-size image.

Tighty has already used the best photo from that race.

In other news.

Snakebite leads the way in the Darts.



Arbboy gave us the Barney v Thornton draw.



Words of wisdom from the guvnor.



Bobsworth goes today.



Uli went yesterday.



Eric Cantona arrested by none other than Robbie Savage.



Probably the closest Savage would have got to him?

Biggest rip off ever?



Or maybe these lot are?



Sorry Tal.

Later.

[BigAdz]

Ulul whoever is was that needed Katgary.

Think we need to be snapping up 10-1 Lewis Hamilton for SPOTY, as recced by someone earlier?

I don't really agree with this

think I prefer Rory at 16/1, four majors and a Glenegles ryder cup to go at

Rory is popular, and Lewis very marmite. Didn't win it in 2008 when he won an exciting championship, all on terrestial tv.....

Long time Lurker, first time poster (hate that its to do with SPOTY).  

Lewis only lost it in 08 because the Sir Chris of Hoy got 3 golds in Beijing (first time for a Brit to get 3 Golds in 1 Olympics), looking at previous F1 contenders for SPOTY and you see that Button(09) lost out to Ryan Giggs when he had what most thought would be his last season in the prem league (and so a massive crowd favourite).  Before that then you have Lewis again in 07 when he came close but was pipped to the championship by the alcoholic Finn.  Going back further and we start talking about Hill, Mansell and Stewart, all of which won it.

Rory looked vulnerable the other week when massively clear and he clutched defeat from the jaws of victory.

Unless we win the World Cup, I don't see anyone else winning SPOTY this year.

Plus, I'm pretty sure I saw Lewis at 20/1 e/w 1,2,3 in the laddies shop today.

This has got to be the weakest SPOTY field in my lifetime i would say.  If Lewis can't win it this year surely he will never win it.  Anyone think Froch is a big price 100/1 ew 1/4 1,2,3 at coral when others at 1/5 1,2,3???  Has been done for £50 at 65/1 on bf already.  Surely in such a weak field if he beats Groves which he is odds on to do he can't be a massive price to either a)retire there and then or b) have a fight later in the year in vegas and then retire.  Either way in such a weak year 100/1 looks big surely?

Another interesting fact no winner has ever retained the trophy the following year.  Is this actually that significant given the fact the majority of winners are from world cups/atheltic world champs/oly games etc etc its very hard to go back to back for the majority of winners as they don't have an event they can win the following year? 

Carl Froch is an interesting suggestion. Over in the boxing thread the general consensus amongst non dedicated Froch fanboys is that ever since the build up to the first Groves fight he's been acting like an ungracious pratt. Then again the award is not voted for by boxing fans. He's been a world champion for 4 years now, is in the twilight of his career and has a brawling fighting style that can be widely appreciated.

Perhaps we can get a big hint from Skybet who go an industry shortest 22-1 on him. They know better than any other bookie how big the Groves fight will be. And they know the Sky Sports PR machine will be working overtime in promoting Carl Froch. For example tonight Carl Froch got wheeled out at the Premier League darts in Nottingham, albeit to a mixed reaction. There's a big crossover between darts fans and boxing fans, plus the darts crowd may of been mildly inebriated so lets not read too much into their reaction.

Far too marmite to win SPOTY surely. Far too many people I have listened to feel he has almost been a bully in the Groves affair, and it is hard enough for boxers to win this as it is. Can't see it myself.

[claypole]

Paddy are money back to £50 in the Triumph 2nd and 3rd

They are standout Broughton at 15/2, who was a smart animal on the flat and won't mind good going.

Recommend £20 at 15-2  

[pleno1]

I'm going to sound stupid obviously, but I really think England are vastly underrated by everybody.

In terms of form, in 2013 we beat brazil once and drew with them once (in brazil too) they are the favorites for the tournament, in both games we had a heavily weakened team. We performed well in the group phase, coming through undefeated. We did however lose to Germany and chile in friendlies
 

In terms of squad I actually think we have a good team now. We have more athleticism, wingers with pace and finally a very good striker (top 5 in world on form) in Sturridge who could be the perfect foil for Rooney.

We are currently 33/1 to win which at a ew bet could be good (I'm unsure abit he to equate value)

Assuming we progress from our group we will likely face either Colombia or Greece which is probably the easiest if the second round draws. If we manage to get through that we will likely play Spain or Croatia, again one of the better draws with Croatia nothing to be too concerned about and Spain Being an ageing team.

Our players are in good form, we have a decent route through the finals, we are undefeated in qualification we have beaten and drawn against the favorites brazil in the last 12 months and there is no pressure from the press as for some reason everybody is very under confident.

I really think that the new crop of players ie sterling, Sturridge, baines, oxlade chamberlain, Barkley play with enough raw ability that combined with the more experienced players such as Gerard/Rooney that we could be a good threat as well as one of the biggest things which is form where our top players are currently playing really good.
Am I deluded?

[rinswun]

I think the Champions League and Europa League are demonstrating where English football is at right now and we are likely to only get one team through - Chelsea - who will likely only have two Englishmen on the plane - Lampard and Cahill. We'd have to run phenomenally well to get close IMO.

The Liverpool players not being tainted by a disappointing European campaign is a plus but their club tactics are so far removed from Hodgson's England that it'd almost be impossible to retain the same kind of form.