Tips for Tikay

[aaron1867]

Possible horses for the WH mobile offer Doobs?

15.20 Bobs Worth is 2/1 best price with them, and is obvious.
14.40 Briar Hill is 5/4 Hills, 2.7 Betfair, so think we need to duck it for now. Maybe they'll go better in the morning

Thinking about this more, I quite like Kings Palace in the 14.40, he is best price Hills, and the favourite looks too short; so think we should be on.
14.40 Kings Palace 7/2
15.20 Bobs Worth 2/1

Hills Mobile £25s on each the above. 

Can't see Tal wanting a double today, given some serious issues around apostrophes.   

Why would we do a £25 on Bob's worth at 2/1? If we get the 4/1 10am offer, it should be taking away the £25 (or relevant stake) free bet if second offer. I can't see how they will allow you to have both bets on & get both offers?

[david3103]

Two minutes with Tikay lasts for 1 minute 15 seconds?

Time really does fly when you're having fun

[tikay]

Two minutes with Tikay lasts for 1 minute 15 seconds?

Time really does fly when you're having fun

Good spot. I'll blather on longer next week.

It did the job though. The Thursday Night Main, which barely covers it's Guarantee of £12,000 on a regular week, had a £25,000 Guarantee last night - & made £26,890.

BOOM!

[Doobs]

Possible horses for the WH mobile offer Doobs?

15.20 Bobs Worth is 2/1 best price with them, and is obvious.
14.40 Briar Hill is 5/4 Hills, 2.7 Betfair, so think we need to duck it for now. Maybe they'll go better in the morning

Thinking about this more, I quite like Kings Palace in the 14.40, he is best price Hills, and the favourite looks too short; so think we should be on.
14.40 Kings Palace 7/2
15.20 Bobs Worth 2/1

Hills Mobile £25s on each the above. 

Can't see Tal wanting a double today, given some serious issues around apostrophes.   

Why would we do a £25 on Bob's worth at 2/1? If we get the 4/1 10am offer, it should be taking away the £25 (or relevant stake) free bet if second offer. I can't see how they will allow you to have both bets on & get both offers?

Already answered 10.27 last night in the thread

[TightEnd]

Not had a chance to look at this thread for a couple of weeks so not sure if there has been any mention of the T20 world cup yet.

For what it's worth the only 2 teams I could back at the current prices are Sri Lanka at 7/1 (/BetSafe) and Pakistan at 17/2 (Matchbook). 

Australia deserve to be favourites, and whilst I wouldn't lay them at 7/2, it's hard to see much value at that price. 

No idea why India are 4/1 at most places, you could double that and it wouldn't be much more than half-decent value IMO.  The fact that they are highest priced on the exchanges shows there are others who share my view and willing to lay them at 6's.  They are still part way through rebuilding their team and the recent results have been poor.  Their death bowling is a big weakness and they have the same problem as England in that they don't have anything like a settled team.  They might gel during the tournament but there have been no signs so far and the fact they are significantly shorter than Pakistan and SL is ridiculous.  I'll be looking for various spots to lay them during the world cup

Aside from the 7 over game the other night, I haven't watched South Africa in a T20 for a while to be honest.  Looking over their recent results and the squad you would think they have a great chance but we all know their record in the sub-continent is poor.  I won't be backing them at 15/2

In the last year the West Indies have played 9 T20s (against relatively weak opposition - Ireland, NZ, Pakistan and England) and only won 3 of them.  They didn't field their best team in any of them but I've not been convinced by them in this recent series.  If a team gets hold of Narine and/or gets Gayle out early then they are there for the taking.  Hard to see any value at 8/1.

Anyone else, including NZ and England, have little to no chance.  The fact both those teams are only priced slightly higher than Pakistan and Sri Lanka is bizarre.  New Zealand have an awful record on these tracks and England's isn't much better.  I guess at least NZ are in good form - a semi final spot wouldn't surprise me but winning it certainly would!

That leaves Pakistan and Sri Lanka.  Aside from being able to build good totals on subcontinent tracks, they have have the added bonus of having the best 2 bowling attacks to exploit the teams who can't play spin.  Unlike India, they have pace bowlers who can back them up without going round the park.  I was expecting to see Sri Lanka around 9/2 and Pakistan 11/2 to be honest, so either I've got my numbers very wrong or the bookies do. 

Not sure if Tighty has already done a write up already, if so it will probably be better than this!  If not and you are looking for a bit of action on the tournament winner then my suggestion is Sri Lanka or Pakistan

I don't diosagree with your picks per se but do think the WI have some value

you need a team with

- mystery spinners, ideally wrist spinners. WI have two in Narine and Badree
- bowlers that can also take the pace off. thought santokie was impressive. sammy can chip in too
- batsmen that can clear the ropes on slow pitches. In Gayle, Bravo, Simmons, Pollard the WI are packed with them
- a terrific fielding side. they are
- able to play spin. england, safrica, nz to an extent can't

of course WI can be brainless, but you are getting a price

The favourites are rightly Australia (Finch, warner, white, hodge, bailey can chase down a lot of totals)

my shortlist is WI, Australia, Sri Lanka, Pakistan. I am several times bitten and now shy on trusting pakistan. getting no price on Aus so that leaves me sri lanka and west indies

[tikay]

Possible horses for the WH mobile offer Doobs?

15.20 Bobs Worth is 2/1 best price with them, and is obvious.
14.40 Briar Hill is 5/4 Hills, 2.7 Betfair, so think we need to duck it for now. Maybe they'll go better in the morning

Thinking about this more, I quite like Kings Palace in the 14.40, he is best price Hills, and the favourite looks too short; so think we should be on.
14.40 Kings Palace 7/2
15.20 Bobs Worth 2/1

Hills Mobile £25s on each the above. 

Can't see Tal wanting a double today, given some serious issues around apostrophes.   

Why would we do a £25 on Bob's worth at 2/1? If we get the 4/1 10am offer, it should be taking away the £25 (or relevant stake) free bet if second offer. I can't see how they will allow you to have both bets on & get both offers?

Already answered 10.27 last night in the thread

Thanks for saving me having to try & explain that!

Will be loading up shortly, just sorting some, you know, stuff.

[tikay]

REMINDER.

10am, Wm Hill go 4/1 Bobs Worth, Max Bet £10.

[TightEnd]

Daily Report

Loss on Month £322.25

Outstanding Bets £3608.68

Free Bets to use TWO William Hill, First expiriy 18th

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0Aia1Hxq-NDNWdFk3UmlTSXMzTjRBTVNfOWRndVFsZHc&usp=drive_web&pli=1#gid=22

Cheltenham 2014

Day Three Result -£9.07

Race One -£50
Race Two +£147.18 (Fingal Bay £200)
Race Three -£35
Race Four -£41.25 (AtFishersCross e/w £43.75)
Race Five -£30

Day Two result +160.18

Day One Result -203.89

Cumulative Cheltenham Result -£52.78


A loss of £29 yesterday, £9 at Cheltenham as shown above and £20 in Barbados where for a change Lumb and Hales fired

After three days of Cheltenham we are down a bit, but would be nicely up if More than that had gone in the books

Today's portfolio is light, so far

14-Mar   Horses   Triumph Hurdle   Plinth   12/1   50   £25 e/w 1/4 1,2,3
14-Mar   Horses   Cheltenham Gold Cup   Lyreen Legend   50/1   16   £8 e/w qtr odds 1,2,3,4
14-Mar   Horses   Cheltenham Gold Cup   Lyreen Legend   50/1   40   £20 e/w qtr odds 1,2,3,4
14-Mar   Horses   Cheltenham Gold Cup   Last Instalment   14/1   20   NRNB


Lewis Hamilton headed Nico Rosberg to a Mercedes one-two in second practice at the season-opening Australian GP.

In other news

""The stand-out story, though, seems to be that Lotus are struggling. They over-performed last year but have not done much running and when the car is out [on track] it looks unstable."

Lotus' Romain Grosjean was only 18th, four seconds off the pace. Team-mate Pastor Maldonado did not even set a time"

Our current F1 portfolio

Formula1   F1 WDC   Button   12/1   20            
Formula1   Constructors Championship   Mercedes   6/5   25            
Formula1   F1 Drivers Champion   Hamilton   3/1   30            
Formula1   F1 Australian Gp   Magnussen   12/1   20   EW 1/5 1,2,3 £10 e/w
Formula1   Australian Grand Prix: To podiate   Sergio Perez   7/1   10            
Formula1   Australian Grand Prix   Hamilton   5/2   40            
Formula1   Australian Grand Prix   Rosberg   4/1   10            
F1          Australian Grand Prix Not to be Classified   Grosjean   8/11   22            
F1          Australian Grand Prix Not to be Classified   Maldonado   8/11   22            

[tikay]

Too clever.


After three days of Cheltenham we are down a bit, but would be nicely up if More than that had gone in the books


Ouch.

[tikay]

Also....

Our current F1 portfolio

Formula1   F1 WDC   Button   12/1   20           
Formula1   Constructors Championship   Mercedes   6/5   25           
Formula1   F1 Drivers Champion   Hamilton   3/1   30           
Formula1   F1 Australian Gp   Magnussen   12/1   20   EW 1/5 1,2,3 £10 e/w
Formula1   Australian Grand Prix: To podiate   Sergio Perez   7/1   10           
Formula1   Australian Grand Prix   Hamilton   5/2   40           
Formula1   Australian Grand Prix   Rosberg   4/1   10           
F1          Australian Grand Prix Not to be Classified   Grosjean   8/11   22           
F1          Australian Grand Prix Not to be Classified   Maldonado   8/11   22   

I backed another one last night, Bottas (Championship, not race), @ 50/1, wil Post the details shortly.

[Tal]

I'm obviously going a little bonkers.

England to win the football world cup and Carl Froch to win SPOTY? I assume these are plant posts from the bookies as a means of getting some of their Cheltenham losses back?

Shame we can't have a double, as I expect they're related contingencies.

Froch wasn't that popular in Nottingham last night at the darts. He got booed on the way out if his "win" against Groves, who himself had been booed INTO the ring. Since then, he's said the decision of the ref was entirely correct and behaved petulantly, trying and failing to get a fight with Andre Ward instead, then offering Groves a deal that it's rumoured put all sorts of conditions on Groves, so that he'd have to reject a 50/50 deal, welcomed the announcement that he was forced to fight again (now with a huge purse share in his favour - 80/20?) because he'd get to "whoop" him again, behaved even more childishly in the promo and his opponent is somehow being made to look by juxtaposition as a smart, focused, even intelligent, up and coming Bristish fighter. If Froch wins, he'll likely try to get another fight in before the SPOTY is done and it would only be Ward he wants. He'll get a pasting. If he doesn't get the fight, he'll have to retire, you'd imagine. Asking a lot for him to get more votes than everyone else.

All that said, I'm sure there's a price where it becomes value, as with everything else. The recreational boxing fan in me just can't have it

[aaron1867]

doobs, I'm not sure you have answered my question, according to Hillsyou can only have one free bet per race, so I'm at a loss to know why you would get two as betting the £10 4/1 would make the £25 bet just a loser if second?

[TightEnd]

Henderson is 1/22 at the Cheltenham Festival and Nicholls 0/23.

Does this have any relevance at all when weighing up Bobs Worth and Silviniaco Conti, the two favourites on good (unsuitably fast?) ground in a (weak?) Gold Cup?

[Doobs]

doobs, I'm not sure you have answered my question, according to Hillsyou can only have one free bet per race, so I'm at a loss to know why you would get two as betting the £10 4/1 would make the £25 bet just a loser if second?

You don't get 2 free bets.

Backing Bobs Worth at 2/1 with a free bet for 2nd is a good bet.
Backing Bobs Worth at 4/1 with no free bet for 2nd is very good.

You can either have one good and one very good bet or just one very good bet.  I'd rather have the former .

[arbboy]

Ulul whoever is was that needed Katgary.

Think we need to be snapping up 10-1 Lewis Hamilton for SPOTY, as recced by someone earlier?

I don't really agree with this

think I prefer Rory at 16/1, four majors and a Glenegles ryder cup to go at

Rory is popular, and Lewis very marmite. Didn't win it in 2008 when he won an exciting championship, all on terrestial tv.....

Long time Lurker, first time poster (hate that its to do with SPOTY).  

Lewis only lost it in 08 because the Sir Chris of Hoy got 3 golds in Beijing (first time for a Brit to get 3 Golds in 1 Olympics), looking at previous F1 contenders for SPOTY and you see that Button(09) lost out to Ryan Giggs when he had what most thought would be his last season in the prem league (and so a massive crowd favourite).  Before that then you have Lewis again in 07 when he came close but was pipped to the championship by the alcoholic Finn.  Going back further and we start talking about Hill, Mansell and Stewart, all of which won it.

Rory looked vulnerable the other week when massively clear and he clutched defeat from the jaws of victory.

Unless we win the World Cup, I don't see anyone else winning SPOTY this year.

Plus, I'm pretty sure I saw Lewis at 20/1 e/w 1,2,3 in the laddies shop today.

This has got to be the weakest SPOTY field in my lifetime i would say.  If Lewis can't win it this year surely he will never win it.  Anyone think Froch is a big price 100/1 ew 1/4 1,2,3 at coral when others at 1/5 1,2,3???  Has been done for £50 at 65/1 on bf already.  Surely in such a weak field if he beats Groves which he is odds on to do he can't be a massive price to either a)retire there and then or b) have a fight later in the year in vegas and then retire.  Either way in such a weak year 100/1 looks big surely?

Another interesting fact no winner has ever retained the trophy the following year.  Is this actually that significant given the fact the majority of winners are from world cups/atheltic world champs/oly games etc etc its very hard to go back to back for the majority of winners as they don't have an event they can win the following year?  

Carl Froch is an interesting suggestion. Over in the boxing thread the general consensus amongst non dedicated Froch fanboys is that ever since the build up to the first Groves fight he's been acting like an ungracious pratt. Then again the award is not voted for by boxing fans. He's been a world champion for 4 years now, is in the twilight of his career and has a brawling fighting style that can be widely appreciated.

Perhaps we can get a big hint from Skybet who go an industry shortest 22-1 on him. They know better than any other bookie how big the Groves fight will be. And they know the Sky Sports PR machine will be working overtime in promoting Carl Froch. For example tonight Carl Froch got wheeled out at the Premier League darts in Nottingham, albeit to a mixed reaction. There's a big crossover between darts fans and boxing fans, plus the darts crowd may of been mildly inebriated so lets not read too much into their reaction.

Far too marmite to win SPOTY surely. Far too many people I have listened to feel he has almost been a bully in the Groves affair, and it is hard enough for boxers to win this as it is. Can't see it myself.

Happy for anyone to accommodate me at the above price ew as i struggle to get on.  Given this is the biggest fight in boxing history (its being heavily promo'd nearly 12 weeks in advance this is easily Hearn's biggest ever PPV and he is going to milk it for everything its worth) in the UK in front of 80,000+ fans at the new Wembley Stadium what price would u be EITHER Froch or Groves is placed in the top 3 of the SPOTY betting?  Both are 80/1 ew at coral 1/4 1,2,3 so 9.5/1 coupled one of them finishes in the top 3 on the place market of SPOTY

I personally think that is a big price in such a poor year for SPOTY when the jolly (no jolly has ever repeated the following year) Murray looks under the cosh from injury again this year and doesn't even show up for the event due to off season training in Miami.  He seems extremely unlikely to be the first sportsman ever in 60 years to go back to back in SPOTY.