Tips for Tikay

[tikay]

afternoon tikay

got a rare bit of time today and may i suggest a decent eway bet on DOLLAR MICK in the 4.50 at newcastle. Beaten fav last four starts isnt normally a great way in to a bet but this horse looks to me to have been crying out for decent ground since being handicapped. Has gone close here before (traded 1-10 in running) and the breeding goes along with my thinking that good ground will suit.

bet365 are currently laying (well a bit!) at 10-1 with the 8 runners intact this is a very fair eway bet in my opinion.

Thanks!

Will sort that very shortly.

Good to see you back here, hope things are OK with you, & we will see you back here full time again soon, you are much missed.

[horseplayer]

you are very kind tikay

im hoping to be but it wont be for at least 3 weeks i would think

lets hope it at least places

[MereNovice]

It's not better nor worse than any other bet as the refund is obv taken into account by the odds. You just take the standard 1x2 prices remove the x and scale to get to 100% total.

Umm, yes, quite so.  But any chance you could translate that into Mugs language, please? There are, ahem, one or two on here. Not me, I'm thinking of Mere, & Chompy, obv.

I'll write out some nice sums for you at half-time in the rugby, alright?

No longer required.

Meanwhile, no tries in the first half of Italy v Scotland - how remarkable.

[Chompy]

afternoon tikay

got a rare bit of time today and may i suggest a decent eway bet on DOLLAR MICK in the 4.50 at newcastle. Beaten fav last four starts isnt normally a great way in to a bet but this horse looks to me to have been crying out for decent ground since being handicapped. Has gone close here before (traded 1-10 in running) and the breeding goes along with my thinking that good ground will suit.

bet365 are currently laying (well a bit!) at 10-1 with the 8 runners intact this is a very fair eway bet in my opinion.

Risky business backing each-way in eight-runner races at lunchtime. I'd rather wait until nearer post time, make sure they all run and take a couple of points shorter if nec.

[RickBFA]

you are very kind tikay

im hoping to be but it wont be for at least 3 weeks i would think

lets hope it at least places

Bet Victor are 11/1 BOG on dollar mick atm

[tikay]

you are very kind tikay

im hoping to be but it wont be for at least 3 weeks i would think

lets hope it at least places

Bet Victor are 11/1 BOG on dollar mick atm

"BOG"?

[horseplayer]

chompy makes a good point

always the risk one will come out in such a race hopefully less likely here with no obvious no hoper

[RickBFA]

you are very kind tikay

im hoping to be but it wont be for at least 3 weeks i would think

lets hope it at least places

Bet Victor are 11/1 BOG on dollar mick atm

"BOG"?

Best odds guaranteed

[tikay]

you are very kind tikay

im hoping to be but it wont be for at least 3 weeks i would think

lets hope it at least places

Bet Victor are 11/1 BOG on dollar mick atm

"BOG"?

Best odds guaranteed

Ahh, thanks. Obvious really!

But that's sort of what the thread is about, eh?

[tikay]

afternoon tikay

got a rare bit of time today and may i suggest a decent eway bet on DOLLAR MICK in the 4.50 at newcastle. Beaten fav last four starts isnt normally a great way in to a bet but this horse looks to me to have been crying out for decent ground since being handicapped. Has gone close here before (traded 1-10 in running) and the breeding goes along with my thinking that good ground will suit.

bet365 are currently laying (well a bit!) at 10-1 with the 8 runners intact this is a very fair eway bet in my opinion.

Noted Chompy's valid concern, & Rick's BetVictor price, & decided to gamble.


ON, £25 EW with Betvictor


You have successfully placed 1 bet(s)

Total possible returns 380.00

BET RECEIPT Single Selections
NEWCASTLE 16:50
DOLLAR MICK (EW)
(Horse Racing Outright)
Odds:  11/1
Stake:  50.00
Possible Return:  380.00

[bobby1]

You are looking at the relative probabilities of 1 and 2, ignoring the draw completely. If two teams are both the same % to win, the DNB price is evens both sides. If one side is 50% to win and the other 30%, you get 5/8 on the first, 8/3 on the other.

where can I bet 5/8 one side 8/3 the other with no tie involved please? 

[bobby1]

Stopped offering my advice as  generally too much aggro on here, however for the good of the greater cause this  this bet stands out as great value to me

Wigan have now got their best 11 players fit and this was evident v Norwich last week

They are their fighting for their premiership survival whereas WBA are safe ...so Wigan to beat WBA  @ 11 -10  draw no bet at WilliamHills

http://www.oddschecker.com/football/english/premier-league/wigan-v-west-brom/draw-no-bet

My first contribution to this thread so £100 Tony

good luck mate and it's under that in Asia too atm. Same with the Horse, horse player.

[adnmdv]

You are looking at the relative probabilities of 1 and 2, ignoring the draw completely. If two teams are both the same % to win, the DNB price is evens both sides. If one side is 50% to win and the other 30%, you get 5/8 on the first, 8/3 on the other.

where can I bet 5/8 one side 8/3 the other with no tie involved please? 

Palpable error.

[tikay]

You are looking at the relative probabilities of 1 and 2, ignoring the draw completely. If two teams are both the same % to win, the DNB price is evens both sides. If one side is 50% to win and the other 30%, you get 5/8 on the first, 8/3 on the other.

where can I bet 5/8 one side 8/3 the other with no tie involved please? 

Palpable error.

Lol, I know that one!

[bobby1]

You are looking at the relative probabilities of 1 and 2, ignoring the draw completely. If two teams are both the same % to win, the DNB price is evens both sides. If one side is 50% to win and the other 30%, you get 5/8 on the first, 8/3 on the other.

The easiest way to convert match prices into draw no bet or level ball prices to give you two way tradeable  prices as a layer is as follows using today's Fulham v Swansea game.

match prices on Betfair to about 100.2%
Fulham 1.81
Draw 3.85
Swansea 5.3

Take 1 point off the draw price to give you 2.85, times that by the price of the home team, which is 1.81, then divide that by the full draw price , which is 3.85.

Gives you 1.34 ish Fulham draw no bet

Using the draw minus 1 point price of 2.85, times the Swansea price of 5.3 divided by the full draw price of 3.85.

Gives you a price of 3.92 Swansea draw no bet. Obviously as a layer you would take a little off those to make money, which leads to the betfair price in the draw no bet market of

1.33 Fulham draw no bet
3.9 Swansea draw no bet

To get bang on 100% book you should break down the BF match price into a 100% book but to be honest it is so near anyway it doesn't matter.

Using that method at the Wigan price on the off gives Fraser's bet as 2.04 draw no bet, so 2.1 was value.


cheers