|
tikay
|
 |
« Reply #8790 on: June 15, 2012, 06:45:34 PM » |
|
Shush!
|
|
|
|
|
Logged
|
All details of the 2016 Vegas Staking Adventure can be found via this link - http://bit.ly/1pdQZDY (copyright Anthony James Kendall, 2016). |
|
|
|
FUN4FRASER
|
|
« Reply #8791 on: June 15, 2012, 07:00:15 PM » |
|
Stop it you'll confuse Fraser again  I get confused by a play on words  |
|
|
|
|
Logged
|
|
|
|
|
redarmi
|
|
« Reply #8792 on: June 15, 2012, 07:48:56 PM » |
|
Does anybody else have problems with Betfair being really slow ? this has been happening more and more in the last few weeks
I find it particulary bad on The US Open golf page..... so much so I struggle to place bets !
Every other site is fine so can only assume they have massive traffic ?
Yep - I couldn't get a bet on when I was trying to back GMac @ 19.0 earlier....sure am happy about that now!!!! |
|
|
|
|
Logged
|
|
|
|
|
redarmi
|
|
« Reply #8793 on: June 15, 2012, 07:55:31 PM » |
|
This is a bit thin for a recomendation for the thread but 1-0 England at 8.6 on Betfair is a bit too big. Should be a shade under 7/1 if anyone is desperate for an interest.
|
|
|
|
|
Logged
|
|
|
|
|
FUN4FRASER
|
|
« Reply #8794 on: June 15, 2012, 07:56:48 PM » |
|
Time for Andy Carroll To come of Age !
|
|
|
|
|
Logged
|
|
|
|
|
tikay
|
|
« Reply #8795 on: June 15, 2012, 07:57:15 PM » |
|
This is a bit thin for a recomendation for the thread but 1-0 England at 8.6 on Betfair is a bit too big. Should be a shade under 7/1 if anyone is desperate for an interest.
How exactly do you, or your "model", arrive at that, please? Not so much for this instance particularly, but what is the general logic? |
|
|
|
|
Logged
|
All details of the 2016 Vegas Staking Adventure can be found via this link - http://bit.ly/1pdQZDY (copyright Anthony James Kendall, 2016). |
|
|
|
MereNovice
|
|
« Reply #8796 on: June 15, 2012, 08:24:44 PM » |
|
Was that a header? |
|
|
|
|
Logged
|
Reigning Blonde Fantasy Ashes and Super League Champions
|
|
|
|
Graham C
|
|
« Reply #8797 on: June 15, 2012, 08:25:12 PM » |
|
An andy Carroll header, double bink!!!
|
|
|
|
|
Logged
|
|
|
|
|
FUN4FRASER
|
|
« Reply #8798 on: June 15, 2012, 08:25:47 PM » |
|
And come of age he has Boom Thats so perfect for so many bets on Blonde
|
|
|
|
|
Logged
|
|
|
|
|
tikay
|
|
« Reply #8799 on: June 15, 2012, 08:26:11 PM » |
|
Fred Double!
|
|
|
|
|
Logged
|
All details of the 2016 Vegas Staking Adventure can be found via this link - http://bit.ly/1pdQZDY (copyright Anthony James Kendall, 2016). |
|
|
|
millidonk
|
|
« Reply #8800 on: June 15, 2012, 08:26:23 PM » |
|
Truly amazing stuff bobby!!
|
|
|
|
|
Logged
|
|
|
|
|
Karabiner
|
|
« Reply #8801 on: June 15, 2012, 08:26:42 PM » |
|
Oh Carroll And achy breaky heart for the 'keeper. |
|
|
|
« Last Edit: June 15, 2012, 08:28:26 PM by Karabiner »
|
Logged
|
"Golf is deceptively simple and endlessly complicated. It satisfies the soul and frustrates the intellect. It is at the same time maddening and rewarding and it is without a doubt the greatest game that mankind has ever invented." - Arnold Palmer aka The King.
|
|
|
|
tikay
|
|
« Reply #8802 on: June 15, 2012, 08:27:33 PM » |
|
Going to try and take advantage of a market that is offered at roughly the same prices every game but might be wrong in the eng v Sweden game.
Have 40 quid at 4/1 with bluesq on 'header' in the method of first goal market in the eng game.
6 of the last 7 goals Sweden have conceded have been headers and 7 of the last 11.
Both goals by the UKraine were headers too and they clearly have a problem defending against high balls, Hodgson is too good a manager to let that go unnoticed and is starting with Carroll today SWeden have IBrhimovic in attack who is a real handful in the air too.
Price is usually about 4/1 in every game , I think this is a little different given the stats and two huge strikers playing and plenty of threats from set pieces.
Cheers
Back of the net! |
|
|
|
|
Logged
|
All details of the 2016 Vegas Staking Adventure can be found via this link - http://bit.ly/1pdQZDY (copyright Anthony James Kendall, 2016). |
|
|
|
redarmi
|
|
« Reply #8803 on: June 15, 2012, 08:28:00 PM » |
|
I have written a model using a slightly adjusted poisson distribution. The basic inputs are supremacy and goal expectation which it then converts to a ton of markets for me by working out the probabilities of each teams scoring 0-9 goals and then multiplying them together for the various different scorelines. Once upon a time a lot of bookies didn't use this kind of maths and there were inefficiecies all over the market. Now the inefficiencies tend to come when the market moves but they don't change the derivatives and it shows me the best possible way to bet when the market becomes disjointed. It is only a matter of time before the firms tie their software to move the derivatives at the same time. You occasionally also get inefficiencies in the Betfair market but only these days really on the really big games like this which I assume comes from a disproportionate amount of mug money in the market. The model isn't perfect but it is definitely good enough. PM me an email addy and I will send you the spreadsheet to take a look at but obviously I would rather you didn't share it even though most firms and serious pros have something similar now because it took me a long time to do it.
|
|
|
|
|
Logged
|
|
|
|
|
c4ught
|
|
« Reply #8804 on: June 15, 2012, 08:28:31 PM » |
|
Sweet header and even sweeter tipping!
|
|
|
|
|
Logged
|
|
|
|
|
Author