Tips for Tikay

[redarmi]

Tend to agree with Phil on this.  I also think it is the wrong approach to just stop betting on something on the basis of what sport it is.  Basketball could very easily be profitable, in fact a regular on this thread is currently doing some work for one of the most successful NBA punters in the world and if he was to put something up it would probably be worth a look.  Similarly I think the level of F1 expertise is very good and the sample size there is tiny given the prices we are betting at.

On Bloom - he would bet anything he thought he had an advantage at but it probably isn't worth the hassle to be putting too much work into markets like corners and cards for him these days although he did once bet basically anything he could.

[tikay]

Bobby, reds - I don't wholly disagree ( basketball etc), but we were chasing a bit, throwing good money after bad. I would need better justification now as to value. What we needed, or need, are those little spots where a particular specific has been identified that means the price is out of line. The NFL bet the other night is the sort of thing I mean.

[Singheee]

baseball

Starts a 9.05pm our time so i will be brief

Its phillies vs miami

Phillies have been in good form of late, but looking at the stats for the two team batting figures it is quite even.

The thing that has made me choose this bet if the batter vs pitcher stats this year, josh johnson has pitched very well against phillies this year and especially at phillies main hitter howard and utley
Whereas cliff lee hasnt pitcher aswell against miami and miami most dangerous home run threat in there last match was 2 out 2 against lee.

So i suggest £60 quid at 3/2 for miami to beat phillies with any of ladbrokes, paddy power, stan james,  boyle sport

[tikay]

baseball

Starts a 9.05pm our time so i will be brief

Its phillies vs miami

Phillies have been in good form of late, but looking at the stats for the two team batting figures it is quite even.

The thing that has made me choose this bet if the batter vs pitcher stats this year, josh johnson has pitched very well against phillies this year and especially at phillies main hitter howard and utley
Whereas cliff lee hasnt pitcher aswell against miami and miami most dangerous home run threat in there last match was 2 out 2 against lee.

So i suggest £60 quid at 3/2 for miami to beat phillies with any of ladbrokes, paddy power, stan james,  boyle sport

Thanks Singheee, Baseball Maestro.

Hope you watched "Moneyball" last night, it was all about Baseball. Bit far-fetched, like.....

We have £60 @ 6/4 with Paddy Power, Miami to beat Philadelphia.

ON

Major League Baseball Miami Marlins (J Johnson) At Philadelphia Phillies (C Lee)
12-09-2012 21:05
Match Betting
Miami Marlins (J Johnson) @ 6/4
 
Your Bets Win
Single: Miami Marlins (J Johnson) @ 6/4
1 line at £60.00 per line
Total stake for this bet: £60.00
Potential returns: £150.00
No: O/23146337/0000120

 

[Tonji]

^^^
on with a spare tenner 

[redarmi]

Miami are a GREAT bet tonight but I couldn't post it but now it has started......

[Graham C]

In baseball betting, why do they put the team name followed by a chap in brackets? (the pitcher I assume)

[redarmi]

Because when you bet on baseball you bet with pitchers listed and if that pitcher doesn't start and then your bet is void.

[tikay]

Because when you bet on baseball you bet with pitchers listed and if that pitcher doesn't start and then your bet is void.

Why would that be, please?

[Graham C]

Ah, thank you

[redarmi]

Because when you bet on baseball you bet with pitchers listed and if that pitcher doesn't start and then your bet is void.

Why would that be, please?

Because pitchers are so important that they effectively make up 75%+ of the price that if the prices stood and someone knew a star pitcher had got injured they would have a huge advantage.  To give you an example the Angels play the A's the next two nights in a very important series.  They are 5/6 to win tonight and 4/6 to win tomorrow night.  The only difference in lineups (barring injuries) will be the pitchers.

[tikay]

Thanks.

[The Camel]

Did you ever look at ROI per bookmaker?

Yes.

We do best with Ladbrokes (+13% over 68 bets) & worst on BetVictor (-10.5% on 82 bets). 

Why do you ask, Keith?

That's surprising.

There are two types of internet bookmaker.

One type are clueless and are (relatively) easy to win from.

They remain profitable by immediately banning or restricting anyone with half a clue. And only taking bets from ice creams.

Then there are the shrewder books, who give the punters a chance, but have very sharp compilers who you are jousting with.

Type 1: BetVictor, Skybet, Coral, Betbaldie, Paddy Power, Boylesports, Stan James and Blue Squirrel

Type 2: Ladbrokes, Bet365, Hills, Pinny.

I would hope Fred will be in front against VC by years end.

[tikay]

Click to see full-size image.

[redarmi]

That is a fascinating pair of groupings Keith and i suppose if you have to only have two groups it isn't too bad.  Seems a bit unfair to me to have Bluesq, Corals and Paddy's in with Fred, Skybet and Boyles though.  Only one thing is for absolute certain and that is that we will beat VC in the long run.  i would bet my life on it.  think we will keep betting Ladbrokes though.  i think their volume means they sometimes don't feel the need to change prices when others would or maybe their books just look different.  Irrespective they aren't afraid to stand one.  having said all of that the only two firms in those lists I can still bet with are Bluesq and Pinny and I know in the long run it will only be Pinny so kudos to them they really are out on their own.