Tips for Tikay

[ripple11]

"Tonight, however, we get back to winning ways, as NFL hotpot Kuku has given us a nice little NFL bet on Tennessee v Pittsburgh (UNDER 42.5) which I'm extremely bullish about. Keep dat faith".

 I think Kuku suggested the over. The line has moved in his favour to 43.5 with some 44s breaking out.

 I actually quite like under 44 but I hope you went the right way for the fred.

 That Nation's Cup picture had me strugglin for one of the names. Did anyone get the name of our internet qualifier? He played decent and I thought we might see him around the circuit in years to come but I don't think I ever have.

 I have things to say on the Baltimore game and I wouldn't be rushing to back Dallas but I don't see a need to steam into the Ravens now either. The line is so solid at 3.5 right now and it could just get to 3 by Sunday. The favourite by 3 happens around 14% of the time so it's a pretty important number to get. If you could choose between taking Baltimore at -3.5 at 10/11 or at -3 then for the two prices to be neutral ev you would be able to almost take 8/11 -3. If you can get 4/5 -3 that is better than -3.5 at 10/11.

Francis Durbin . No entries after, on THM database.....which does seem a little unusual. Maybe Team GB put him off poker for life.

[Tal]

"Dear Mr Channing,

Will Self is now marginal favourite for the Man Booker Prize.

Best price 9/4 with PaddyPower. Generally 2/1. Hilary Mantel now 5/2.

Fred has £20 on Mr Self at 11/4. Should he green out?"

[The Camel]

Indeed.  The simple appreciation of an opening batsman seeing off the new ball without scoring, but knowing that there willl be opportunities to plunder later on.

I think there is a place for both though.

I've no problem with slow play in cricket either. Thre are loads of variables which mean trying to score quickly is not the best strategy sometimes.

Darts is a simple game. Throw three arrows into a board.

If a player takes a few seconds to compose himself before a big shot, fair enough.

But to take a minute over every shot is just unacceptable and obviously designed to put off your opponent.

[Doobs]

"Dear Mr Channing,

Will Self is now marginal favourite for the Man Booker Prize.

Best price 9/4 with PaddyPower. Generally 2/1. Hilary Mantel now 5/2.

Fred has £20 on Mr Self at 11/4. Should he green out?"

We can't lay at bookmaker prices.

[Tal]

"Dear Mr Channing,

Will Self is now marginal favourite for the Man Booker Prize.

Best price 9/4 with PaddyPower. Generally 2/1. Hilary Mantel now 5/2.

Fred has £20 on Mr Self at 11/4. Should he green out?"

We can't lay at bookmaker prices.

Lol doobs. Might have been joking

[TheDazzler]

I love the sattelitte picture taken at night of North/South/Normal Korea.

I was in North Korea a couple of months ago, lovely country. Seriously. I'll put up a few pictures if people like.

[Nico29]

The X Factor farce rumbled into full swing at the weekend, with Louis forgetting who he was supposed to kick out, and nearly preventing the producers from retaining Rylan who adds publicity to the show.

The overall winner looks being in danger of being a one horse race with Ella well clear of the other acts, but due to the mediocre nature of many of the acts I think there may be some value in the eliminations markets in the early weeks.

Rylan should get a bounce this week and with the X Factor machine fully behind him should finish outside the bottom 2.

I think the person who may be in trouble at a decent price is Christopher Maloney.  Not only is his nervous act all the time annoying, but it turns out he used to sing on a cruise ship so the public is going to think it is an act.   Rumours abound that the producers are not happy with him in relation to this cruise ship which does not help his cause and may lead to him performing first up in the coffin slot.

If you google him he has a fair amount of negative publicity around his “nervous act”.

Only negative is that he isn’t a bad singer (but then neither was Carolyn in week 1) and that he must have some kind of fan base as he won the wildcard vote.

Nonetheless, I think his price is too big in what is a wide open elimination.  

I recommend we back Christ Maloney at 9/1 to be the second elimination for £5.

Feel bad I went against this, although it seems Tikay doesn't do betting on xfactor anyways.

He's now best priced 11-2-an arb on betfair and this and other articles have appeared.

Good call mr beetle, I may even have a bit on at 11-2 now.

http://www.thesun.co.uk/sol/homepage/showbiz/tv/x_factor/4581065/X-Factor-Chris-Maloney-shy-guy-or-not-fake-different-off-camera.html

http://www.sugarscape.com/main-topics/film-and-tv/773774/christopher-maloney-branded-fake-fellow-x-factor-finalists

I watched the xtra factor episode from last sunday on sky+ yesterday too, Louis branded him fake and there was a weird atmosphere regarding Mr maloney.

His price is probs only gonna shorten, still not convinced he'll go but 9-1 was def value.

[Bad Beat]

 Fella was called Charlie Durbin. I have him on Facebook. Very nice guy. Played well but came just 5th in his heat. There was some controversy as you could only use four in the final and myself and Surinder won our heats while Joe and Ian had both come 2nd in their heats. Roland wanted to pick Joe as he had won the Poker Million in the format just a few months before and done well in Late Nite Poker. Roland did suggest dropping himself. In the end Ian had to sit out.

 The prize money for each member of the winning team was "just" $16,666 but the side betting was massive.

 I think it was Chris Ferguson who wanted to bet £90,000 to win £40,000 that GB wouldn't win at the start of the final.

 

[DungBeetle]

Thanks Nico.  I agree with you that there are more likely candidates for the chop, but I'm happy with the 9-1.  Will probably be surprised if I collect though to be honest.  Can't eat value and all that.

[tikay]

I like the look of under 6.5 180s in the Nicholson v Osbourne match tonight.
Both players are out of form and have never been big max hitters, it going to 5 sets should be the only real  danger  of it getting to 7+
In their last round matches both players hit 2 each in 5 sets.
Every other bookhas the line at 5.5, Hills go 6.5

Bill Hill now in line wil everyone else, is this still a recommend at 5.5 or too thin?

I was about to ask the same thing.

If Snowy says "do it", we'll do it.

I still like unders but not enough of an edge to put it ip for Fred for my liking.

Hi snowy,

I assume this is NOT now a Fred bet?

I have until 5.45 before I shut up shop.

I'm going to have a small interest on my own account though, so thank you.

[Bad Beat]

 On the points in that Baltimore vs Dallas game it opened 43.5 earlier in the week and the price is now leaning towards 44.5.

 One successful Vegas professional who has a small band of followers bet over and that is probably the reason for it climbing. 44 is a reasonably "big" number in NFL total (not as big as 51 and 37 as I'm sure you'll appreciate Tikay).

 I think the feeling is that the Ravens going no-huddle means they can score quickly but more than that it means that their ageing defence do not get enough time to really rest and so they will always concede points. I think they also feel that Dallas will play a passing game and not really run too much.

 Another view I read is that Dallas at home do not have a great advantage this year in the new stadium. They should be slightly discounted at home for that. People tend to discount teams without thinking whther to discount them seperately for home and away and so consequently they may be a smidge underated away.

 Aside from all of that though Dallas remain "America's Team" and in all of their games the public love them, causing the books to try and "split the money" rather than "splitting the result".

 Generally speaking, as I'm sure Tony will be quick to remind us, Dallas are not a team that does well ATS.

[tikay]

The Baltimore Ravens have won their last 13 games at home

In their last 30 games against opponents from the NFC conference they are 24-5-1

On Sunday they host the Dallas Cowboys, of whom I am a big fan


Baltimore are 4-1 this season, the Cowboys 2-2

Whilst Baltimore are not quite the suffocating defense they used to be, that is compensated for by having more firepower on offense than previously. This season they have scored, in their five games 44,23,31, 23 and then 9 points last week in a 9-6 win

The Cowboys meanwhile have a good defense, and plenty of talent but have glaring weaknesses that mean they are a poor match up for the Ravens. This is primarily an Offensive live that is patchwork and lacks talent particularly in the interior. Going against Haloti Ngata, a destructive defensive lineman, is bad news for them and means that the Dallas QB Romo is unlikely to have the clean pocket he requires to consistently find his targets

We saw this against the Bears last time, where "bad" Romo threw various interceptions and the team lost heavily

Since then Dallas have had a bye week, which is in their favour. In fact that is worth looking at in more detail, as it is seen to be an advantage

Over the four most recent seasons in games where only one team is coming off the bye, the team coming off the bye has a record of 65-54-1 straight up, and 61-44-5 against the spread.  

However, drilling down, Road Underdogs are 8-24 Straight / 14-18 Against the Spread coming off a bye so that is more encouraging. If a mediocre team has to travel the week after the bye, then the bye week is not necessarily an advantage against the favourite who hasn't had one...

The Cowboys are a Road Underdog, this week.

Baltimore are 10/11 -3.5 and 8/15 straight up

http://www.oddschecker.com/american-football/nfl/dallas-cowboys-at-baltimore-ravens/point-spread

I generally prefer to go against the spread. However on this occasion the match up and the demonstrable home advantage the Ravens have point me in the opposite direction

Before I looked at the prices, I expected it to be Ravens -5 or -6.


Recommend £50 Baltimore Ravens -3.5 10/11, available widely.

Putting this up early, and will be watching it, in the hope that public money takes the Cowboys to +3 by Sunday. This can happen, as the Cowboys have a big fan base and their markets can move as the recdonkfishamnon-pro money comes as the wekend starts

Game is 6pm our time Sunday.

Thanks Tighty, aka Elite Minor......

I've decided to bet this now, as I'm very much pre-occupied the next 4 days, Show tonight, then 3 days of the SPT 6-Max, so I may not have time to do bets "as & when".

I have also upped the bet to £55, as we like symmetrical numbers, all nice & tidy.

We have £55 @ 10/11 with Blue Square, Baltimore Ravens -3.5 v Dallas Cowboys, on Sunday.

ON

Baltimore Ravens -3.5 @ 10/11 
Market
 Handicap Winner
 
Event
 NFL Matches
Dallas Cowboys at Baltimore Ravens
2012-10-14 18:00:00
 
Bet Type
 
Bet Type
 Win Single
 
Unit Stake
 £55.00
 
Number of Units
 x1
 
Total Stake
 £55.00
 
Time and Date Placed
 2012-10-11 17:12:20
 
Receipt Number
 O/0891659/0000107

[tikay]

On the points in that Baltimore vs Dallas game it opened 43.5 earlier in the week and the price is now leaning towards 44.5.

 One successful Vegas professional who has a small band of followers bet over and that is probably the reason for it climbing. 44 is a reasonably "big" number in NFL total (not as big as 51 and 37 as I'm sure you'll appreciate Tikay).

 I think the feeling is that the Ravens going no-huddle means they can score quickly but more than that it means that their ageing defence do not get enough time to really rest and so they will always concede points. I think they also feel that Dallas will play a passing game and not really run too much.

 Another view I read is that Dallas at home do not have a great advantage this year in the new stadium. They should be slightly discounted at home for that. People tend to discount teams without thinking whther to discount them seperately for home and away and so consequently they may be a smidge underated away.

 Aside from all of that though Dallas remain "America's Team" and in all of their games the public love them, causing the books to try and "split the money" rather than "splitting the result".

 Generally speaking, as I'm sure Tony will be quick to remind us, Dallas are not a team that does well ATS.

The critical factors here Neil - sorry if it is over your head - are.....

No huddle is a no no, as far as I know.

The presence or otherwise of a "Dome" Stadium. Crucial this, it allows for better offense, & we can go the OVERS.

Weather. If a no-huddle no dome, the lower the temperature, the lower the score, so we go with the UNDERS.

Note when the weather is BAD we should bet our UNDERS early in the week, because the weather never improves.  (?!)

Still with me Son?

See you shortly, should be a grand Show.

Ch 861, 7pm - Midnight, Special Guest Neil Channing.

[TightEnd]

Baltimore are at home. And its outdoors. Unders is correct

[tikay]

Baltimore are at home. And its outdoors. Unders is correct

Err, yes, that was exactly why I bet it.