Tips for Tikay

[redarmi]

As a last point I'd like to ask anyone who has a bet on Van Gerwin if they think he is a lay at 6/1 now and if they don't think that that is something they would do if they didn't have a bet on already if they are considering greening out anyway?

 I'd like to ask those that greened at 20/1 if they are thinking this is the lay of all time at 6/1 as they obviously thought it was a good lay at 20/1?

 I'd like to ask those that haven't had a bet whether it's a bet or lay at 6/1?

 I'm not having a go at anyone, I'm just interested in the way people think about betting. It upset me to think that this guy who posted on our site had so little ambition that all he wanted to do was win a little and he would still give away value to green out even if a picture of Tony Bloom's smiling face came up as you pressed the button to do so.

I havent been in the UK for most of this year so I haven't watch hardly any darts and am not involved at all in the original bet but it did occur to me the other day when it was first mentioned that he was now 6-1 that he might be a lay.  Recent news is often overvalued in betting markets and all of the recent news about MVG has been good as far as i can gather.  I would obviously love to be on at 80/1 but given I am not I would be interested in laying him now and any research I did would be based on the hypothesis he is too short now and that is exploitable in some way whether laying him or betting others.

[redarmi]

Just on TL's post if you intend to bet Houston over don't do it yet as that line will come down and you might be able to bet over 197 or even 196.5.  Just call me Mystic Red ;-)

Hi Mystic.

Noted.

And would you do that bet?

I've not absorbed Jaffa Cake's Post properly yet, ( he responded) as I need the post-nap fog to clear first.

I haven't looked at the game in any depth so I wouldn't be in a position to judge although hopefully you can read between the lines as to why i think the line will go down.

[Karabiner]

As a last point I'd like to ask anyone who has a bet on Van Gerwin if they think he is a lay at 6/1 now and if they don't think that that is something they would do if they didn't have a bet on already if they are considering greening out anyway?

 I'd like to ask those that greened at 20/1 if they are thinking this is the lay of all time at 6/1 as they obviously thought it was a good lay at 20/1?

 I'd like to ask those that haven't had a bet whether it's a bet or lay at 6/1?

 I'm not having a go at anyone, I'm just interested in the way people think about betting. It upset me to think that this guy who posted on our site had so little ambition that all he wanted to do was win a little and he would still give away value to green out even if a picture of Tony Bloom's smiling face came up as you pressed the button to do so.

I'm pretty clueless about darts betting in general but managed to follow my nose and a couple of shrewd punters on this thread and had a rather serendipity pony on MvG @ 66/1. I've not greened-out but I must admit that the 6/1 looked fairly appetising when it first appeared for a no-risk shot at £1500 but in the grand scheme of things saving my original £25 seems a little trivial.

An even £200 would be very tempting though

[tikay]

lines i like tonight :

Mavericks +2.5 @ Pacers. Pacers very out of form with injury problems, 1 win in their last 6, have lost to some very bad teams too. Mavs too strong here imo. Money line is probably good value too.

Knicks +6 @ Memphis. As i said above these two are the two in-form teams in the NBA clashing tonight. Grizz coming off the back of wins @ OKC and vs Miami will be buzzing but the Knicks 6-0 and coming off the back of a huge win in SAS will also be brimming. Knicks did play last night so that's why the line is kinda high but I think 6 points is tooooooo big and I expect this to be a pretty close game and I wouldn't want to pick a winner tbh. Were gona be relying on grizz not making an absurd amount of 3 pointers like they did vs MIA but it's pretty hard to shoot as well as they did that game.

O198 Rockets @ Trail Blazers. Both teams have good offences and pretty poor defences. Blazers are allowing 101 points a game while Rockets 96 on average. Both these teams have very good offences though and I expect this to be very high scoring with alot of open looks to both sides. Another thing to note is both benches are pretty poor (especially blazers) meaning they will just leak very easy points. Niether team is very big either I expect to see alot of pick and rolls from Harden and Batum with a high success rate.

Thoughts on these Jaffacake or anyone? Im on all these, gl if you are too.

edit : I know I said to back anyone thats playing orlando as Jaffacake did, but they are playing the Pistons tonight and I have no idea who is going to win the battle of 2 of the 3 worst teams in the NBA tbh so im staying clear tonight.

Thanks.

We are on a bit of a recovery mission tonight, two bets today, both lost, though only small money. NBA to the rescue......

Of those bets, I have chosen the Knicks @ +6, £27.50 @ 10/11, Blue Square.

ON

New York Knicks +6 @ 10/11 
Market
 Handicap Winner
 
Event
 NBA
New York Knicks at Memphis Grizzlies
2012-11-17 02:30:00
 
Bet Type
 
Bet Type
 Win Single
 
Unit Stake
 £27.50
 
Number of Units
 x1
 
Total Stake
 £27.50
 
Time and Date Placed
 2012-11-16 23:27:13
 
Receipt Number
 O/0891659/0000141
 

[tikay]

lines i like tonight :

Mavericks +2.5 @ Pacers. Pacers very out of form with injury problems, 1 win in their last 6, have lost to some very bad teams too. Mavs too strong here imo. Money line is probably good value too.

Knicks +6 @ Memphis. As i said above these two are the two in-form teams in the NBA clashing tonight. Grizz coming off the back of wins @ OKC and vs Miami will be buzzing but the Knicks 6-0 and coming off the back of a huge win in SAS will also be brimming. Knicks did play last night so that's why the line is kinda high but I think 6 points is tooooooo big and I expect this to be a pretty close game and I wouldn't want to pick a winner tbh. Were gona be relying on grizz not making an absurd amount of 3 pointers like they did vs MIA but it's pretty hard to shoot as well as they did that game.

O198 Rockets @ Trail Blazers. Both teams have good offences and pretty poor defences. Blazers are allowing 101 points a game while Rockets 96 on average. Both these teams have very good offences though and I expect this to be very high scoring with alot of open looks to both sides. Another thing to note is both benches are pretty poor (especially blazers) meaning they will just leak very easy points. Niether team is very big either I expect to see alot of pick and rolls from Harden and Batum with a high success rate.

Thoughts on these Jaffacake or anyone? Im on all these, gl if you are too.

edit : I know I said to back anyone thats playing orlando as Jaffacake did, but they are playing the Pistons tonight and I have no idea who is going to win the battle of 2 of the 3 worst teams in the NBA tbh so im staying clear tonight.

If I was gonna bet on these last two I'd defo go your way, tho I prefer the Knicks bet to backing Houston, who are defo a better than Portland, whose bench may be the worst in history, but they're pretty up n down themselves. Harden is 10 times the player Batum is which might be the diff.

I've watched a lot of Memphis, mainly coz Mike Conley and Rudy Gay are two of my fantasy team, and really thought they'd underperformed this season, still pretty sure they have more to give. they hve a lovely blend with really good players in 4 of the 5 starting spots but as u say the bench is a bit poor.

I watched Detroit beat Philly the other day and having nearly beaten OKC the game before when they fell to 0-8 I think they may have a turned a little it of a corner. Agree Indy have been shocking, but Dallas are hopeless to so leaving that alone.

The two I picked up and bet were Utah +1 at Philly, on the basis Philly were abs shocking in their last game, losing at home to 0-8 Detroit, while Utah have been playing pretty well, an overtime win in Toronto and a narrow loss to Boston when they were always in it. Philly looked horrendous the other night, couldn't buy a bucket, be v surprised if they could turn that around in two days practice. However, the market has strengthened the Philly side of that game so interested in opinions?

New Orleans +6 against OKC is my other pick. This ticks all the boxes of the bets Channing likes, home underdogs, enfashionable team against one all the mug punters love (so the line is further in our favour) and we can add in that the Hornets are still somewhat under rated, having been laughably poor last year, they're improving, having the number one draft pick (Anthony Davis), anothe good rookie (name escapes me), a decent point guard on fire this year (vasquez) and a good outside threat (Anderson). I don't think the market has picked up this improvement. Add to that OKC traded away Harden, their third best player, and that means Durrant and Westbrook are playing loads more mins, I like this bet. Obv backing bad teams against good ones, which is what u have to do to back a home dog, brings an element of risk, but this is value with a capital pie

Thanks Mr K.

I've just realised that your Knicks bet is the same as Mr TL900.

Let's do it again then.

Knicks @ Grizzlies, Knicks +6, £27.50 @ 10/11, Blue Square. (Exact repeat of the prev bet).

ON


Selection New York Knicks +6 @ 10/11 
Market
 Handicap Winner
 
Event
 NBA
New York Knicks at Memphis Grizzlies
2012-11-17 02:30:00
 
Bet Type
 
Bet Type
 Win Single
 
Unit Stake
 £27.50
 
Number of Units
 x1
 
Total Stake
 £27.50
 
Time and Date Placed
 2012-11-16 23:34:34
 
Receipt Number
 O/0891659/0000142
 

[tikay]

There are two teams playing in the premier league tomorrow that are a point apart, yet the home team are 1.53 to lay on Betfair.  Surprised nobody had mentioned it, but thread must be laying Liverpool at 1.53 on the perfect market that is Betfair?  Opponents are Wigan if we care.  We should be looking to green out at 2.0, so set up the back at that price*







* only joking here Neil.

REMINDER to self for Saturday morning.

[Jamier-Host]

As a last point I'd like to ask anyone who has a bet on Van Gerwin if they think he is a lay at 6/1 now and if they don't think that that is something they would do if they didn't have a bet on already if they are considering greening out anyway?

Had a tenner @ 80/1. I have a weird stance on this sort of thing as I deliberately restricted my Betfair account a few years back to tiny deposit amounts as I had found myself routinely  backing stuff and greening out. It felt like a bad thing to be doing but couldn't help myself! Therefore I blocked that avenue and so basically don't use the site any more, so if I bet something (with a bookies) I let it run.

Having said that, as I saw Boyles go 4/1 last night on MVG I thought that seemed a big over reaction and was trying to work out what price I'd be weighing into Taylor at.

[TheDazzler]

There are two teams playing in the premier league tomorrow that are a point apart, yet the home team are 1.53 to lay on Betfair.  Surprised nobody had mentioned it, but thread must be laying Liverpool at 1.53 on the perfect market that is Betfair?  Opponents are Wigan if we care.  We should be looking to green out at 2.0, so set up the back at that price*







* only joking here Neil.

REMINDER to self for Saturday morning.

I'd second this bet fwiw.

[kukushkin88]

As a last point I'd like to ask anyone who has a bet on Van Gerwin if they think he is a lay at 6/1 now and if they don't think that that is something they would do if they didn't have a bet on already if they are considering greening out anyway?

Had a tenner @ 80/1. I have a weird stance on this sort of thing as I deliberately restricted my Betfair account a few years back to tiny deposit amounts as I had found myself routinely  backing stuff and greening out. It felt like a bad thing to be doing but couldn't help myself! Therefore I blocked that avenue and so basically don't use the site any more, so if I bet something (with a bookies) I let it run.

Having said that, as I saw Boyles go 4/1 last night on MVG I thought that seemed a big over reaction and was trying to work out what price I'd be weighing into Taylor at.

Isn´t it just the case that people fundamentally misunderstand what they are trying to do when gambling? The likelihood of MVG winning would be the last thing people are thinking of when they green out for a small return and then bet a 1/2 fav in the Premiership tomorrow with the "profit".

[Snowball]

Dolan's very last Dart could have won Fred the 180 match bet but unfortunatly it went under the Barrell.
Barney played his best Darts in years so no excuses.

I will answer Badbeats questions in the morning from my own perspective but what I would say is that MvG is a lay at at 2.3 for the GSOD before he is at 6/1 for the Worlds.

[TL900]

Fred picked the wrong nba bet rockets @ trailblazers absolutley flew over, 222pts at end of regulation. Didnt see the knicks game as i was out playing poker but grizzlies look like the real deal with another impressive win by 10pts

Mavericks got owned lol so i lost on the day too

C'est la vie.

@redarmi how did u know the line on rockets game was going to move or had it already? At jumpball it was 197.5 on PP. i had already bet it at 198 in fear of it moving up lol.

[TL900]

At first glance grizzlies -5.5 @ charlotte looks like a must bet. Peoples thoughts?

[Jamier-Host]

Recommend staking £5 on a BetVictor "Spincast" as they are refunding 1st time users of the tool with a £5 free bet if you lose:

http://www.betvictor.com/sports/en/content/spincast

I'd suggest using a bit of sense around the selection though, rather than just backing something random!

Spurs/Over 2.5/Defoe @ 35/4?

[tikay]

Fred picked the wrong nba bet rockets @ trailblazers absolutley flew over, 222pts at end of regulation. Didnt see the knicks game as i was out playing poker but grizzlies look like the real deal with another impressive win by 10pts

Mavericks got owned lol so i lost on the day too

C'est la vie.

@redarmi how did u know the line on rockets game was going to move or had it already? At jumpball it was 197.5 on PP. i had already bet it at 198 in fear of it moving up lol.

True!

It's quite awkward when you offer up 2 or 3 bets to be fair, it's not easy for me to choose which one. And as a general rule, we are looking for perceived or real VALUE, over & above normal, so it is highly unlikely that three matches have been mispriced.

I chose that one because another fine judge (or it may have been Jaffa Cake) also suggested it was a decent bet.

Anyway, I take responsibility for selecting the wrong one - twice, lol! - but really, what we should be looking for is special value. Special Value bets are VERY rare, in NBA they MAY arise once every few weeks, (though the market is very close to be optimally efficient), and I think the chance of there being THREE mispriced games in one evening is exceedingly remote.

Fine words by me, the morning after, but like everything, I always earn my lessons the hard way, AFTER I have made the mistake, & lost money. It was always so.

Don't get me wrong, I'm not having a go at you, this is completely down to me.

Keep the suggestions coming please, but collectively, we need to be MUCH more selective. Three "tips" at a time will send us skinto, & I know enough only to back them small. If you, Jaffa, or someone else, finds a STANDOUT bet, with REAL value (more likely to be a season bet, for example, reather than a single game), where we know something the Market does not, & I'd happily bet it big, MAX even. 

Any questions or comments, fire away. This is a learning thread for most of us.

[tikay]

Recommend staking £5 on a BetVictor "Spincast" as they are refunding 1st time users of the tool with a £5 free bet if you lose:

http://www.betvictor.com/sports/en/content/spincast

I'd suggest using a bit of sense around the selection though, rather than just backing something random!

Spurs/Over 2.5/Defoe @ 35/4?

Thanks!

Think I'd need some help/advice from wiser counsel than myself on that.

Essentially, it is a treble, & I really don't much like trebles & the like, thouigh if they make it worthwhile by giving extra value to help alleviate the increased risk, then maybe we should consider them.

SkyBet do something called "WHAT IF?", where they bundle together several Teams, usually "The Big Four", or the leader of each Division, or whatever, & they ADD value to the prices. If, say, the individual odds combined are equal to 20/1, they offer (say) 25/1 if you back the "WHAT IF". It looks incredibly good value. They advertise that bet VERY STRONGLY.