Tips for Tikay

[TL900]

Fred picked the wrong nba bet rockets @ trailblazers absolutley flew over, 222pts at end of regulation. Didnt see the knicks game as i was out playing poker but grizzlies look like the real deal with another impressive win by 10pts

Mavericks got owned lol so i lost on the day too

C'est la vie.

@redarmi how did u know the line on rockets game was going to move or had it already? At jumpball it was 197.5 on PP. i had already bet it at 198 in fear of it moving up lol.

True!

It's quite awkward when you offer up 2 or 3 bets to be fair, it's not easy for me to choose which one. And as a general rule, we are looking for perceived or real VALUE, over & above normal, so it is highly unlikely that three matches have been mispriced.

I chose that one because another fine judge (or it may have been Jaffa Cake) also suggested it was a decent bet.

Anyway, I take responsibility for selecting the wrong one - twice, lol! - but really, what we should be looking for is special value. Special Value bets are VERY rare, in NBA they MAY arise once every few weeks, (though the market is very close to be optimally efficient), and I think the chance of there being THREE mispriced games in one evening is exceedingly remote.

Fine words by me, the morning after, but like everything, I always earn my lessons the hard way, AFTER I have made the mistake, & lost money. It was always so.

Don't get me wrong, I'm not having a go at you, this is comopletely down to me.

Keep the suggestions coming please, but collectively, we need to be MUCH more selective. Three "tips" at a time will send us skinto, & I know enough only to back them small. If you, Jaffa, or someone else, finds a STANDOUT bet, with REAL value (more likely to be a season bet, for example, reather than a single game), where we know something the Market does not, & I'd happily bet it big, MAX even. 

Any questions or comments, fire away. This is a learning thread for most of us.

yeah, gotcha. They weren't neccessarily 'tips' as u say, just the lines I thought were decent personally and wondered what other people thought. The knicks vs Magic game the other night was hugeee value imo whereas these were just feelers so to say.

Appreciate what your saying and taken on board.

[tikay]

Dolan's very last Dart could have won Fred the 180 match bet but unfortunatly it went under the Barrell.

Barney played his best Darts in years so no excuses.

I will answer Badbeats questions in the morning from my own perspective but what I would say is that MvG is a lay at at 2.3 for the GSOD before he is at 6/1 for the Worlds.

Yes, I watched it. Amazing really, we were dead in tnbe water, 1 up to Barney, but we were getting battered. Our man hit 1 x 180, but did not really look like hitting another.

And it got to what looked like it would be (& was) the last throw of the last leg.....and he went 60, 60........then the third one barreled off & missed by a nads. What an awesome little bink that would have been!

We can't really rue our luck though, we do OK overall.

[tikay]

Fred picked the wrong nba bet rockets @ trailblazers absolutley flew over, 222pts at end of regulation. Didnt see the knicks game as i was out playing poker but grizzlies look like the real deal with another impressive win by 10pts

Mavericks got owned lol so i lost on the day too

C'est la vie.

@redarmi how did u know the line on rockets game was going to move or had it already? At jumpball it was 197.5 on PP. i had already bet it at 198 in fear of it moving up lol.

True!

It's quite awkward when you offer up 2 or 3 bets to be fair, it's not easy for me to choose which one. And as a general rule, we are looking for perceived or real VALUE, over & above normal, so it is highly unlikely that three matches have been mispriced.

I chose that one because another fine judge (or it may have been Jaffa Cake) also suggested it was a decent bet.

Anyway, I take responsibility for selecting the wrong one - twice, lol! - but really, what we should be looking for is special value. Special Value bets are VERY rare, in NBA they MAY arise once every few weeks, (though the market is very close to be optimally efficient), and I think the chance of there being THREE mispriced games in one evening is exceedingly remote.

Fine words by me, the morning after, but like everything, I always earn my lessons the hard way, AFTER I have made the mistake, & lost money. It was always so.

Don't get me wrong, I'm not having a go at you, this is comopletely down to me.

Keep the suggestions coming please, but collectively, we need to be MUCH more selective. Three "tips" at a time will send us skinto, & I know enough only to back them small. If you, Jaffa, or someone else, finds a STANDOUT bet, with REAL value (more likely to be a season bet, for example, reather than a single game), where we know something the Market does not, & I'd happily bet it big, MAX even. 

Any questions or comments, fire away. This is a learning thread for most of us.

yeah, gotcha. They weren't neccessarily 'tips' as u say, just the lines I thought were decent personally and wondered what other people thought. The knicks vs Magic game the other night was hugeee value imo whereas these were just feelers so to say.

Appreciate what your saying and taken on board.

Top man, thank you very much. I was a bit worried, as I can be a bit grumpy first thing in the morning, & I did not want it to come across wrongly. For the record, you gave us a corker a coupler of nights ago that hosed in, but I forgot to place it!

Keep the stuff coming, we'll get there.

[Jamier-Host]

Recommend staking £5 on a BetVictor "Spincast" as they are refunding 1st time users of the tool with a £5 free bet if you lose:

http://www.betvictor.com/sports/en/content/spincast

I'd suggest using a bit of sense around the selection though, rather than just backing something random!

Spurs/Over 2.5/Defoe @ 35/4?

Thanks!

Think I'd need some help/advice from wiser counsel than myself on that.

Essentially, it is a treble, & I really don't much like trebles & the like, thouigh if they make it worthwhile by giving extra value to help alleviate the increased risk, then maybe we should consider them.

Kinda doesn't matter what you back here really.  You bet a fiver and get it back (albeit as a free bet) if you lose.

Don't get much better value really - if they were doing it for £150 we'd have the max on.

[tikay]

Recommend staking £5 on a BetVictor "Spincast" as they are refunding 1st time users of the tool with a £5 free bet if you lose:

http://www.betvictor.com/sports/en/content/spincast

I'd suggest using a bit of sense around the selection though, rather than just backing something random!

Spurs/Over 2.5/Defoe @ 35/4?

Thanks!

Think I'd need some help/advice from wiser counsel than myself on that.

Essentially, it is a treble, & I really don't much like trebles & the like, thouigh if they make it worthwhile by giving extra value to help alleviate the increased risk, then maybe we should consider them.

Kinda doesn't matter what you back here really.  You bet a fiver and get it back (albeit as a free bet) if you lose.

Don't get much better value really - if they were doing it for £150 we'd have the max on.

Ahh yes, my bad. Has to be done. They should have put those words bigger, so I did not miss them.


FIRST £5 OF PLAY REFUNDED

[tikay]

Fred Weather

If anyone is considering bets on today's Rugby Union @ Twickers, it is currently tipping down with rain. Proper wet stuff, too.

[Tal]

Over 2.5 goals in the derby is a prima facie no-brainer, as you have two teams who can't keep a clean sheet. It is a derby but that is likely compensated by both teams missing players who fill important gaps.

Defoe is on fire atm so there is plenty of logic in an anytime goalscorer. I imagine he'd be 6/4ish to do that.

Spurs to win away is where the fun starts of course.

[Tal]

Fred Weather

If anyone is considering bets on today's Rugby Union @ Twickers, it is currently tipping down with rain. Proper wet stuff, too.

A lot has been made of the England pack but the Aussies are big as well and the back row will be the key today; England have to control the breakdown in this weather and that is no mean feat. If 6/7/8/9 works this afternoon, I firmly believe England will win. Very big IF tho as we don't get it right often enough against the big three.

See what Fred's patissier thinks but I wonder whether in a low scoring game the draw at 25/1 with PP and others isn't banzaiable.

Australia 3/1 looks big to me, too, considering it's the higher ranked team and England is far from the finished product.

Thoughtaments?

[tikay]

That Walsall Bet.

After some overnight thoughtage, I decided it was worth investing a little more, so I have gone back & had another £30 @ 5/1 with BetVictor.

At present, this is on my own Account, not Fred.

If there is some warmth to move it across to the Fred Account, I'll happily do so, as it makes no difference to me personally either way.   

Point of Order.

This option of an additional bet on Walsall to be relegated was endorsed by Tighty, a few Posts later.

The 2nd Bet (same as the first, £30 @ 5/1 with BetVictor) therefore needs adding to the Fready.

Both bets are owned by EsoKral.

[tikay]

Fred Weather

If anyone is considering bets on today's Rugby Union @ Twickers, it is currently tipping down with rain. Proper wet stuff, too.

A lot has been made of the England pack but the Aussies are big as well and the back row will be the key today; England have to control the breakdown in this weather and that is no mean feat. If 6/7/8/9 works this afternoon, I firmly believe England will win. Very big IF tho as we don't get it right often enough against the big three.

See what Fred's patissier thinks but I wonder whether in a low scoring game the draw at 25/1 with PP and others isn't banzaiable.

Australia 3/1 looks big to me, too, considering it's the higher ranked team and England is far from the finished product.

Thoughtaments?

Me too - looks monsta-huge. But then I'm an ice cream.

[Tal]

Fred Weather

If anyone is considering bets on today's Rugby Union @ Twickers, it is currently tipping down with rain. Proper wet stuff, too.

A lot has been made of the England pack but the Aussies are big as well and the back row will be the key today; England have to control the breakdown in this weather and that is no mean feat. If 6/7/8/9 works this afternoon, I firmly believe England will win. Very big IF tho as we don't get it right often enough against the big three.

See what Fred's patissier thinks but I wonder whether in a low scoring game the draw at 25/1 with PP and others isn't banzaiable.

Australia 3/1 looks big to me, too, considering it's the higher ranked team and England is far from the finished product.

Thoughtaments?

Me too - looks monsta-huge. But then I'm an ice cream.

This is where I (we?) rely on the advice of our Elders. Is this price (a) the correct price based on all info or (b) a bigger price because so much money has gone on England and the bookies want to cover the bet a little?

(b) is a bet; (a) is only a bet if the market hasn't adjusted for weather and we believe Australia's chances increase in the mud.

[tikay]

The SECOND Walsall bet.....

Here is the BetSlip, for the record.



Betid 29000107400 Time: 09:47 Bet Type: Single Stake: £ 30.00 
EVENT  SELECTION  PRICE  E/W TERMS  STATUS 
To Be Relegated League One Specials
To Finish In Bottom Four - Specials
 Walsall  5/1  Win only  Unsettled 

[tikay]

Daily Summary, as @ 0925, Saturday November 17th


PROFIT on Month = £794.50

Unsettled Bets  - £733.50



https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0Aia1Hxq-NDNWdFk3UmlTSXMzTjRBTVNfOWRndVFsZHc#gid=14

[Doobs]

Fred Weather

If anyone is considering bets on today's Rugby Union @ Twickers, it is currently tipping down with rain. Proper wet stuff, too.

A lot has been made of the England pack but the Aussies are big as well and the back row will be the key today; England have to control the breakdown in this weather and that is no mean feat. If 6/7/8/9 works this afternoon, I firmly believe England will win. Very big IF tho as we don't get it right often enough against the big three.

See what Fred's patissier thinks but I wonder whether in a low scoring game the draw at 25/1 with PP and others isn't banzaiable.

Australia 3/1 looks big to me, too, considering it's the higher ranked team and England is far from the finished product.

Thoughtaments?

Me too - looks monsta-huge. But then I'm an ice cream.

This is where I (we?) rely on the advice of our Elders. Is this price (a) the correct price based on all info or (b) a bigger price because so much money has gone on England and the bookies want to cover the bet a little?

(b) is a bet; (a) is only a bet if the market hasn't adjusted for weather and we believe Australia's chances increase in the mud.

They don't sound like a team at the top of their powers, so I assume the price reflects the poor form and disharmony?

http://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/0/rugby-union/20347064

I am a rugby union ice cream.

[TightEnd]

QPR only just survived last season, yet have a third of the points after 11 games this season (4) that they had last season (12).

Today is a big day, Southampton at home

I suggested this a few weeks ago.

QPR still odds against to be relegated, same price as Norwich

http://www.oddschecker.com/football/english/premier-league/relegation

Won't be odds against for long if they don't win today.....