Tips for Tikay

[Doobs]

The Adzy/Camel horse (Baby Shine, EW)......




http://www.oddschecker.com/horse-racing-betting/kempton/14:05/winner

Is this a "dirty" EW thingie?

My enthusiasm is not tempered for the horse, but the bet needs reviewing as Alasi taken out. No longer the EW steal I thought.
TBH I am still on large regardless, but from a prudence point of view the value to nothing has been stolen.

FML.

Timing is a thing of beauty. Bad timing, not so much.......

Never mind, it is done now.

I'm blaming hector, for reminding me.

still 8 runners at the moment so surely ok for now?

It is 9/1 on betfair, for those still interested.  I don't think the place bit has much value, as the place odds on betfair aren't too far from the fifth the odds on the 8/1 available at the bookies.

Not any more it isn't.

Should we grreen up?

 

[tikay]

I just had a really good look at that 2.05 race.

 I think it's quite a good ew event with eight runners and I think you can disregard Annimation, Wild Rhubarb and Alpine Breeze who need to improve a lot.

 I like opposing Knockfierna who looks quirky and who is back here to hurdles having jumped poorly over fences.

 I quite like opposing Kim Bailey's Kaffie. It's been off a long time after a setback and it seems weak in the market. He didn't seem that enthusiastic on his blog.

 That leaves us Kells Bell (bit short, stable not totally firing), Baby Shine (up in trip and Lucy Wadham seemed worried about ground) and Miss Milbourne.

 Generally I prefer to back horses down in trip ew rather than those up in trip, but I think Miss Milborne will love the trip and ground.

 I would suggest a saver ew at 11/2. (I have bet it).

Thanks Neil.

For better or worse, we have £5 EW @ 11/2, Blue Square, Miss Milborne.

Baby Smile, Miss Milborne, how can we possibly lose?.....


ON

Miss Milborne @ 11/2 
Market
 Win or Each Way
 
Event
 Kempton
2.05
2012-11-26 14:05:00
 
Bet Type
 
Bet Type
 Each Way Single
 
Unit Stake
 £5.00
 
Number of Units
 x2
 
Total Stake
 £10.00
 
Time and Date Placed
 2012-11-26 14:01:25
 
Receipt Number
 O/0891659/0000152

[doubleup]

 It is only the thought that the layer could be privy to better news than I have on the injury situation that stops me.

He had only put up £10, so a bit sad for the layer if thats all he can get for his inside info....


btw this market is so illiquid I think the whole green-up discussion is academic.

[tikay]

2.05 Kempton

1st  7 Knockfierna (IRE)  11/4 
2nd  8 Miss Milborne  9/2 
3rd  3 Alpine Breeze (IRE)  25/1 

[BigAdz]

Not much about that I got right!

Travelled well to the half mile point and Aspell seemed to down tools v quickly. I remain convinced she needs 3 miles, so think it was the ground. Either way, Apols

[tikay]

Not much about that I got right!

Travelled well to the half mile point and Aspell seemed to down tools v quickly. I remain convinced she needs 3 miles, so think it was the ground. Either way, Apols

No worries Adz, stick it down as a Bad Beat.......

[tikay]

Daily Summary, as @ 1430, Monday November 26th


PROFIT on Month = £864.50


Unsettled Bets  - £688.50



https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0Aia1Hxq-NDNWdFk3UmlTSXMzTjRBTVNfOWRndVFsZHc#gid=14

[Chompy]

Here goes...

3.20 Ludlow

Lay Daneva for a place @ 2.36, £50 to lose £68

She's a flambuoyant jobbie who's been running over two miles lately. She gets away with an easy 3m but this ground is desperate and I can't have her seeing it out. Also, Dave Yates has tipped it, which is a good enough reason to place lay it by itself.

[bobby1]

Would Fred members be interested in owning a horse for next Flat season? If we could get enough interested it'd be workable I think.

Was hoping to get a list of around ten interested parties - to keep the price sensible - before looking into it further.

So far we have...

Myself
Karabiner
Redarmi
Bigadz
Tal?

Hi Chompy,

Do you have something in mind at the moment?

What price range were you thinking of, I would be interested at the decent  ish quality end but not so much at the winters at Wolvers/Southwell end.

cheers

[bobby1]

Here goes...

3.20 Ludlow

Lay Daneva for a place @ 2.36, £50 to lose £68

She's a flambuoyant jobbie who's been running over two miles lately. She gets away with an easy 3m but this ground is desperate and I can't have her seeing it out. Also, Dave Yates has tipped it, which is a good enough reason to place lay it by itself.

That was almost like you had seen the race Chompy, good call.

[RickBFA]

Morning Mr T. In terms of minutes per £ yesterdays selection was the worst I have ever given you so I shall make it up to you by giving you my 2nd best tip in terms of £ per minute.

The 2nd Test starts mid kip tonight and I have been postulating over it since the end of the last one. India are now odds on everywhere and I can't support England. So what to bet on ? We have Hadrain batting for us so what about an Indian bowler.To my mind it is a toss up between Ashwin and Ohja, no shit Sherlock I hear you all say ! You can get 7/4 on both of these and that makes no appeal.

We know that this is a spinners wicket. We have been informed by his Tightiness that the pitch was used 3 weeks ago which will help spinners. We also know the England batsmen are terrible against spin, with a notable exception and some question marks. In the match played last year at this venue against the West Indies these 2 bowlers took 16 of the 20 WI wickets including all 10 of the 2nd innings. Ashwin was awarded the Man of the Match as he was in 1 of the other 2 Tests.

So my suggestion of how to get with these 2 bowlers is slightly quirky but I think it is value. I suggest backing both of them to be Man of the Match. I priced it up myself as around 5 or 6 to 1 each of 2 but Ladbrokes are offering 9-1 on both. So the usual bet size £10 on both Ashwin/Ohja to be MOTM @ 9-1 Ladbrokes.

Wow, now that looks very clever. I have no idea of it reps value, but it is certainly an ingenious approach.

Worth mentioning, too, that I THINK Fred has only once bet on a "Man of the Match" award, which was also owned by you, & which won. A Rugby League game if I recall correctly, & it was the "Lance Todd Trophy"?

If India bat first the chances are another Indian batsman will be man of the match, in my opinion.


I can't be having Antonio at 13-1 either. Wed have lost three on the spin, Barkley has been recalled, Antonio to my mind is at the whim of a big change in team line up by Mr Jones.

I wouldn't be backing Antonio personally but to be fair he is Wednesday's only real attacking outlet given the negative tactics Jones is employing right now. The only way Antonio wont play though is through injury.

Unless something dramatic has changed, I'd expect Leicester to win by 2 goals on saturday. We (Wednesday) are in a right old mess currently with Jones setting up to not lose games rather than try to win them. Trouble is that typically results in 1-0 and 2-0 defeats because we are poor defensively.

Last week I posted this about the Sheff Wed v Leicester game. I should have put it up as a bet but didn't.

Wednesday play Watford midweek. Very strong rumours Dave Jones is getting sacked - the team is devoid of any attacking options, confidence is shot and its clearly not a happy dressing room.

I suggest a small bet on Watford at 21/10. Watford scored 2 at Blackpool on saturday and should beat us. I wouldn't be suprised to see this finish 1-0 to Watford.

[Chompy]

Here goes...

3.20 Ludlow

Lay Daneva for a place @ 2.36, £50 to lose £68

She's a flambuoyant jobbie who's been running over two miles lately. She gets away with an easy 3m but this ground is desperate and I can't have her seeing it out. Also, Dave Yates has tipped it, which is a good enough reason to place lay it by itself.

That was almost like you had seen the race Chompy, good call.

Tyty.

Another hurtful rebuff though.

Pro punterers can't take siestas during racing, irrespective of age.

[The Camel]

Would Fred members be interested in owning a horse for next Flat season? If we could get enough interested it'd be workable I think.

Was hoping to get a list of around ten interested parties - to keep the price sensible - before looking into it further.

So far we have...

Myself
Karabiner
Redarmi
Bigadz
Tal?

Hi Chompy,

Do you have something in mind at the moment?

What price range were you thinking of, I would be interested at the decent  ish quality end but not so much at the winters at Wolvers/Southwell end.

cheers

Agree with Phil.

Don't want to be too pernickety, but who trains it would be important to me too.

All things being equal, I would be interested.

[Chompy]

Yuh, that'll all be discussed down the line if we get enough interest. Sixties Icon 2yo out of a sprinter ftw.

[tikay]

Here goes...

3.20 Ludlow

Lay Daneva for a place @ 2.36, £50 to lose £68

She's a flambuoyant jobbie who's been running over two miles lately. She gets away with an easy 3m but this ground is desperate and I can't have her seeing it out. Also, Dave Yates has tipped it, which is a good enough reason to place lay it by itself.

That was almost like you had seen the race Chompy, good call.

Tyty.

Another hurtful rebuff though.

Pro punterers can't take siestas during racing, irrespective of age.

Marv.

Not even had the afternoon kippage yet, I have been Offline since 2.45, sorting out some personals, as Charlie the Car Breaker-Inner visited me overnight. Even took my camera, how am I going to produce my wonderful photos now?

Anyway, it is your own fault, stick the bets up earlier!