Tips for Tikay

[Ant040689]

Got opinions back on the Palace win and Millwall draw for Saturday and ty for them, but I was wondering what Fred thought about Bristol City at home to Wolverhampton at 2.67?

[aaron1867]

Got opinions back on the Palace win and Millwall draw for Saturday and ty for them, but I was wondering what Fred thought about Bristol City at home to Wolverhampton at 2.67?

Backing a draw is nuts.

Backing anything is Bristol City/Wolves game is also nuts, probably would go for goals.

[Ant040689]

Got opinions back on the Palace win and Millwall draw for Saturday and ty for them, but I was wondering what Fred thought about Bristol City at home to Wolverhampton at 2.67?

Backing a draw is nuts.

Backing anything is Bristol City/Wolves game is also nuts, probably would go for goals.

This will be the first time I have ever backed the draw, only a small bet, truly one I can't explain. Need to expand my horizons away from thew in loss draw market I think.

[tikay]

Only 2 games in the NBA tonight but I like sides on both the totals.

Spurs @ Heat
http://www.oddschecker.com/basketball/nba/san-antonio-spurs-at-miami-heat/total-points

Two of the best teams in the NBA going at it tonight, but I think the game will be the opposite of 'going at it' The Spurs are one the cleverest teams in the NBA with a great coach who plays great tactics and adapts his team/line up to adjust to his opponents. Tonight will be no different, Spurs know they can't compete with Miami in a pure shootout and they are experienced enough to know that isn't how you beat them. I expect them to clamp down on D and take their time every possession to wait for good looks against a good Heat defence.

Im in for 2units on this game @ U205.5 with william hill.

The other game tonight is Nuggets @ Warriors
http://www.oddschecker.com/basketball/nba/denver-nuggets-at-golden-state-warriors/total-points

Im not too ecstatic about this line but before I opened up to look at the line i did expect it to be >200, so I have had a little tickle on O198.5, both teams play good offence, and when the nuggets are in a game every game is a 'shootout' They don't play much defence at all and play at a very fast pace. For the Warriors their best defender (Andrew Bogut) is injured so this can only help the over for us.

Im in for 1unit on this game @ O198.5

Cliffs:

Suggest U205.5 Spurs @ Heat, if anyone is really enthusiastic about O198.5 in Nuggets game then go for that too, otherwise probably just leave it/have a small little tickle

Thanks Tom.

You know what will happen if we back these, don't you?........!

We are on both, thank you, so a brekkie squeeze awaits tomorrow.

Wm Hill have moved the line on SA Spurs- Miami Heat to 203.5, but we got on @ U205.5 with Corals.

£50 @ 10/11, Corals, UNDER 205.5, San Antonio Spurs v Miami Heat.

£33 @ 10/11, Blue Square, OVER 198.5, Denver Nuggets @ Golden State Warriors.

ON



29/11/2012 11:49AM  Single
To Win £ 55.00 Under 205.5 - San Antonio Spurs @ Miami Heat - Total Points @ 10/11 1.91


__________


Selection Over 198.5 @ 10/11 
Market
 Total Points
 
Event
 NBA
Denver Nuggets at Golden State Warriors
2012-11-30 03:30:00
 
Bet Type
 
Bet Type
 Win Single
 
Unit Stake
 £33.00
 
Number of Units
 x1
 
Total Stake
 £33.00
 
Time and Date Placed
 2012-11-29 11:54:07
 
Receipt Number
 O/0891659/0000153
 

[kukushkin88]

Got opinions back on the Palace win and Millwall draw for Saturday and ty for them, but I was wondering what Fred thought about Bristol City at home to Wolverhampton at 2.67?

Backing a draw is nuts.

Backing anything is Bristol City/Wolves game is also nuts, probably would go for goals.

This will be the first time I have ever backed the draw, only a small bet, truly one I can't explain. Need to expand my horizons away from thew in loss draw market I think.

You´ll never find a profitable bettor betting the draw, the possible exception is where the result is clearly beneficial to one or both teams, even then you´ll struggle to get value as it´s known information. Good gambling is much more about identifying a niche where you have an edge than expanding horizons. This is even true of people with encycloaedic knowledge across a range of sports, their edge is almost always greater in some sports/markets than others.

[nirvana]

"We couldn't have played any better tonight...We would have been disappointed to have drawn the game" - the words of...Brendan Rodgers

He's worse than Muhammed Saeed al-Sahhaf

lol, probably my favorite quote of all time


" my feeling, as usual, we will slaughter them all"

[doubleup]

Will the long putters be abandoned now?  I can't see how they can be used without anchoring them.

[redarmi]

Got opinions back on the Palace win and Millwall draw for Saturday and ty for them, but I was wondering what Fred thought about Bristol City at home to Wolverhampton at 2.67?

Backing a draw is nuts.

Backing anything is Bristol City/Wolves game is also nuts, probably would go for goals.

This will be the first time I have ever backed the draw, only a small bet, truly one I can't explain. Need to expand my horizons away from thew in loss draw market I think.

You´ll never find a profitable bettor betting the draw, the possible exception is where the result is clearly beneficial to one or both teams, even then you´ll struggle to get value as it´s known information. Good gambling is much more about identifying a niche where you have an edge than expanding horizons. This is even true of people with encycloaedic knowledge across a range of sports, their edge is almost always greater in some sports/markets than others.

I always thought this too and generally the maths work I have done on football supports it as the goal expectancy for a draw to be a profitable bet has to be unrealistically low but this week in the Racing and Football Outlook Kevin Pullein presents a fairly compelling case that Premiership bottom five teams playing at home against other mediocre teams ie. not the best in division draw more than their fair proportion of games.  Logically that makes a bit of sense to me although the sample sizes leave a bit to be desired.

[claypole]

Love this thread - just caught up and some brilliant posts last two days; I think Neil's last post sort of sums it up - it's a great coming together of some fantastic, experienced pro based input (Red - get your diary going again I love reading your musings as stories - please) and as has been pointed out people with less punting knowledge however some really good insights into other sports. It's just a mine of brilliant information and knowledge and I hope it continues exactly the way it is and appreciate everyone's contributions

[Bazzaboy]

Heffron v Vassell over 7.5 rounds at 11/10 with Sportingbet is simply wrong. On phone at the minute so can't explain fully but price won't last.


Meh already 5/6. Still a bet. Should be 1/2

[The Camel]

Got opinions back on the Palace win and Millwall draw for Saturday and ty for them, but I was wondering what Fred thought about Bristol City at home to Wolverhampton at 2.67?

Backing a draw is nuts.

Backing anything is Bristol City/Wolves game is also nuts, probably would go for goals.

This will be the first time I have ever backed the draw, only a small bet, truly one I can't explain. Need to expand my horizons away from thew in loss draw market I think.

You´ll never find a profitable bettor betting the draw, the possible exception is where the result is clearly beneficial to one or both teams, even then you´ll struggle to get value as it´s known information. Good gambling is much more about identifying a niche where you have an edge than expanding horizons. This is even true of people with encycloaedic knowledge across a range of sports, their edge is almost always greater in some sports/markets than others.

This.

If you are thinking about having a £50 bet on a draw, it is very likely you are giving up about 2% of your money in expected value.

Save time and just drop a pound in a charity box.

[Ant040689]

Got opinions back on the Palace win and Millwall draw for Saturday and ty for them, but I was wondering what Fred thought about Bristol City at home to Wolverhampton at 2.67?

Backing a draw is nuts.

Backing anything is Bristol City/Wolves game is also nuts, probably would go for goals.

This will be the first time I have ever backed the draw, only a small bet, truly one I can't explain. Need to expand my horizons away from thew in loss draw market I think.

You´ll never find a profitable bettor betting the draw, the possible exception is where the result is clearly beneficial to one or both teams, even then you´ll struggle to get value as it´s known information. Good gambling is much more about identifying a niche where you have an edge than expanding horizons. This is even true of people with encycloaedic knowledge across a range of sports, their edge is almost always greater in some sports/markets than others.

This.

If you are thinking about having a £50 bet on a draw, it is very likely you are giving up about 2% of your money in expected value.

Save time and just drop a pound in a charity box.

#learning. TyTy peeps.

[Bazzaboy]

Heffron v Vassell over 7.5 rounds at 11/10 with Sportingbet is simply wrong. On phone at the minute so can't explain fully but price won't last.


Meh already 5/6. Still a bet. Should be 1/2

Now 3/5

[Tonji]

http://www.insidethegames.biz/sports/summer/cycling/1011875-liverpool-hire-sports-psychiatrist-who-inspired-cycling-greats-hoy-pendleton-and-wiggins

His work with the cyclists was crucial to success. Not sure it transfers into football, however info for the layers!

[The Camel]

Tycoon's Reflection in this next race at Newbury looks v interesting to me.

Not a Fred bet, but worth a shilling or two at 16/1.