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Author Topic: Tips for Tikay  (Read 13332009 times)
TightEnd
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« Reply #32430 on: March 05, 2013, 02:27:27 PM »

Man U tonight : second legs in any European match between the two lifetime average 5.5 goals - 4 matches - so tiny sample

With styles, attacking prowess compared to defensive proficieny, Madrid needing an away goal minimum I really really like Over 3 goals 11/8 tonight, far more than I do odds on 2-3 goals exactly
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« Reply #32431 on: March 05, 2013, 02:30:37 PM »

My research on Man U tonight tells me second legs in any European match between the two lifetime average 5.5 goals

With styles, attacking prowess compared to defensive proficieny, Madrid needing an away goal minimum I really really like Over 3 goals 11/8 tonight, far more than I do odds on 2-3 goals exactly

Is both to score buying money at 1/2?

PS anybody got views on the Scholes gets booked suggestion from earlier?
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« Reply #32432 on: March 05, 2013, 02:34:23 PM »

My research on Man U tonight tells me second legs in any European match between the two lifetime average 5.5 goals

With styles, attacking prowess compared to defensive proficieny, Madrid needing an away goal minimum I really really like Over 3 goals 11/8 tonight, far more than I do odds on 2-3 goals exactly

Is both to score buying money at 1/2?

PS anybody got views on the Scholes gets booked suggestion from earlier?

I liked the 14/1 on Mourinho giving it large down the touchline and had the max on that... Which was a whole £8 Cheesy
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« Reply #32433 on: March 05, 2013, 02:37:41 PM »

Man U tonight : second legs in any European match between the two lifetime average 5.5 goals - 4 matches - so tiny sample

With styles, attacking prowess compared to defensive proficieny, Madrid needing an away goal minimum I really really like Over 3 goals 11/8 tonight, far more than I do odds on 2-3 goals exactly

Altho i'm guessing you are just looking at this cos of the 365 offer, there was 7-4 available on this earier, 13/8 best with hills now and some 8/5 +loads of 6-4 too.

Personally free bet or not I don't like ever taking such a worse price if i don't have to.

Think united at 2-1+ are ridic tonight.

Market is overreacting imo to Madrid beating an out of sorts barca twice in a week.

Rooney coming nicely into form for this match, can see him being key tonight.
« Last Edit: March 05, 2013, 02:42:40 PM by Nico29 » Logged
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« Reply #32434 on: March 05, 2013, 02:42:08 PM »

Got another SPOTY bet which I think could be a bit of a dirty e/w bet.

He didn't win SPOTY the year he won the WDC

He's not popular with many, and a lot of the races aren't on terrestial TV live (which I feel is also an important reason to ignore Phil Taylor. Easy to overlook how many of the voting public just don't watch Darts etc on Sky Sports)

Don't see him winning the WDC, outside bet to get close to it, more likely a winner of a few individual races

Don't really see 50-1 as any value, would want at least double that

I accept its not a stand-out year in terms of events (no world cup/olympics/ryder cup etc)




He didn't win it the year he won WDC was because it was an Olympic year and Sir Chris Hoy had smashed in 3 Gold medals. He did however finish second in that years voting.



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Murray could win Wimbledon, if he does it will be on BBC

England should win the Ashes. Alistair Cook is one of the World's great batsmen, going to be an all time great, captain in what used to be a mass viewing sport

Obv Murray is already priced into the market as a massive favourite.

England have won the last two ashes series and a world 20/20 victory. They have had players on the SPOTY nomination in recent years, Cook, Strauss, Swann and Anderson. None of them have recorded anything significant in the voting.

Hamilton also IMO hugely popular with casual fans purely because of his star in a reasonably priced car lap. Top Gear loves him

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« Reply #32435 on: March 05, 2013, 02:42:13 PM »

yes I was looking at B365

I like Madrid for their potential to smash United on the Counter.

Of course it is very rare for United to be 2-1+ at home
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« Reply #32436 on: March 05, 2013, 02:46:46 PM »

Just as a general strategy betting overs in 2nd legs is not a bad one.  They play significantly differently to normal football matches as long as there is something to play for and that isn't totally absorbed into the price imo.
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« Reply #32437 on: March 05, 2013, 02:47:58 PM »

My research on Man U tonight tells me second legs in any European match between the two lifetime average 5.5 goals

With styles, attacking prowess compared to defensive proficieny, Madrid needing an away goal minimum I really really like Over 3 goals 11/8 tonight, far more than I do odds on 2-3 goals exactly

Is both to score buying money at 1/2?

PS anybody got views on the Scholes gets booked suggestion from earlier?

I liked the 14/1 on Mourinho giving it large down the touchline and had the max on that... Which was a whole £8 Cheesy

I got my free bet tenner on Smiley
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« Reply #32438 on: March 05, 2013, 03:10:10 PM »

Just as a general strategy betting overs in 2nd legs is not a bad one.  They play significantly differently to normal football matches as long as there is something to play for and that isn't totally absorbed into the price imo.

Isn't the first leg score a massive clue as to how the game might play out? (Or is this basic level thinking?)

A first leg draw should lead to a more cagey game, as might a 1-0 home win.

If however the away team wins the first leg a more open 2nd leg might be expected.

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« Reply #32439 on: March 05, 2013, 03:21:08 PM »

Just as a general strategy betting overs in 2nd legs is not a bad one.  They play significantly differently to normal football matches as long as there is something to play for and that isn't totally absorbed into the price imo.

Isn't the first leg score a massive clue as to how the game might play out? (Or is this basic level thinking?)

A first leg draw should lead to a more cagey game, as might a 1-0 home win.

If however the away team wins the first leg a more open 2nd leg might be expected.



Think that is true to a degree but the away goal tends to open up the second leg.  Also with an early united goal then real are going to have score twice.  I actually think that this is a spot where goals need to go up more than usual with an early goal especially if united score first and that might be an interesting in running play.
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« Reply #32440 on: March 05, 2013, 03:22:19 PM »

Just as a general strategy betting overs in 2nd legs is not a bad one.  They play significantly differently to normal football matches as long as there is something to play for and that isn't totally absorbed into the price imo.

Isn't the first leg score a massive clue as to how the game might play out? (Or is this basic level thinking?)

A first leg draw should lead to a more cagey game, as might a 1-0 home win.

If however the away team wins the first leg a more open 2nd leg might be expected.



not if an away goal is scored, I don't think

1-0,0-0 in the first far more likely to be cagey in the second (as the first leg home team has something to clearly protect) than if the away team scores in the first leg (as the first leg home team knows it has to come out and minimum score)

I think, happy to be proven wrong
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« Reply #32441 on: March 05, 2013, 03:23:51 PM »

Just as a general strategy betting overs in 2nd legs is not a bad one.  They play significantly differently to normal football matches as long as there is something to play for and that isn't totally absorbed into the price imo.

Isn't the first leg score a massive clue as to how the game might play out? (Or is this basic level thinking?)

A first leg draw should lead to a more cagey game, as might a 1-0 home win.

If however the away team wins the first leg a more open 2nd leg might be expected.



Think that is true to a degree but the away goal tends to open up the second leg.  Also with an early united goal then real are going to have score twice.  I actually think that this is a spot where goals need to go up more than usual with an early goal especially if united score first and that might be an interesting in running play.

Yep, certainly agree that if there's any early goal, total expectation skyrockets.

Just think if you offered the ugly sisters (Fergie and Jose) 0-0 at half time, both would accept it.
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« Reply #32442 on: March 05, 2013, 03:30:17 PM »

I'm a big fan of how Brigton are going at he moment, but Bristol City seem too long to me at Ashton Gate at 9/4.  The have been beating all comers at home since O'Driscoll became manager (4 wins on the bounce?).  I think Brighton might well win, but 9/4 on City is value in my book.

Any thoughts?

Hi guys 1st time poster here. I got on Bristol at 12/5 and they still too long at 9/4.
My research on Man U tonight tells me second legs in any European match between the two lifetime average 5.5 goals

With styles, attacking prowess compared to defensive proficieny, Madrid needing an away goal minimum I really really like Over 3 goals 11/8 tonight, far more than I do odds on 2-3 goals exactly

Is both to score buying money at 1/2?

PS anybody got views on the Scholes gets booked suggestion from earlier?

Scholes to get booked would be printing money if he weren't out injured. BTTS looks like a really solid banker bet plus it's landed the last 6 occasions that Real and Barca have clashed and the last 9/10 times Utd have been at home vs English sides in the top 4.  United have a fantastic record in the CL KO stages and tonight the smart money would be on their side. Personally I'm going to back BTTS pre off and do an in-play bet on overs.
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« Reply #32443 on: March 05, 2013, 03:34:28 PM »

I'm a big fan of how Brigton are going at he moment, but Bristol City seem too long to me at Ashton Gate at 9/4.  The have been beating all comers at home since O'Driscoll became manager (4 wins on the bounce?).  I think Brighton might well win, but 9/4 on City is value in my book.

Any thoughts?

Hi guys 1st time poster here. I got on Bristol at 12/5 and they still too long at 9/4.
My research on Man U tonight tells me second legs in any European match between the two lifetime average 5.5 goals

With styles, attacking prowess compared to defensive proficieny, Madrid needing an away goal minimum I really really like Over 3 goals 11/8 tonight, far more than I do odds on 2-3 goals exactly

Is both to score buying money at 1/2?

PS anybody got views on the Scholes gets booked suggestion from earlier?

Scholes to get booked would be printing money if he weren't out injured. BTTS looks like a really solid banker bet plus it's landed the last 6 occasions that Real and Barca have clashed and the last 9/10 times Utd have been at home vs English sides in the top 4.  United have a fantastic record in the CL KO stages and tonight the smart money would be on their side. Personally I'm going to back BTTS pre off and do an in-play bet on overs.

I think waiting until someone scores or half time (whichever is first) to bet the overs might be a smart move.

Obviously don't know what the price is going to be, but our analysis suggests goals could well be undervalued.
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« Reply #32444 on: March 05, 2013, 03:40:56 PM »

Betfred have an offer on the United/Madrid game, bet £10 in running and if it loses then it is refunded as a free bet. So mine will be going on United but I do have a feeling we are heading for penalties. Great to see Ronaldo miss in front of the Old Trafford fans.
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