Tips for Tikay

[horseplayer]

forgot to say thanks for bobby for the rally steer

[tikay]

Thanks Doobs.

I'm going to put it up as a thread bet Tony, maybe £90 at 4/6 Quevega with Hills in the Mares hurdle. The BOG prob makes it better than the 1.71 on BF.

cheeers

Thanks Phil, got it.

I placed it, then came back & saw horsey's Post......aaarrgh, time for bed I think, before Misclick Syndrome kicks in.

We have £90 @ 4/6, William Hill, Quevega, Mares Hurdle.

ON

12 Mar 2013 - 4:40 Cheltenham - Win

Best Odds Guaranteed!

Quevega @ 4/6

Stake : £90.00
Estimated Returns : £150.00Transaction Reference:O/0457483/0000305/F

[tikay]

If Doobs or the other chap (sorry, can't find who it was right now) wants to suggest some dirty EW in the Mares hurdle, let me know please.

[bobby1]

forgot to say thanks for bobby for the rally steer

cheers  mate, I was a messenger really tho.

[tikay]

Hi tikay and all. suggestion for a bet.
Champion bumper  THE LIQUIDATOR 25/1 w.hill.    only 24 on betfair, ladbrokes 16/1.  Pipes know how to win this race had it off with liberman few years ago, this one has had some nice runs and dont think 25/1 will last too long.  gl  £5 ew for interest maybe.

Thanks atdc.

Adzy agreed, & suggested the price will plummet, too, so we have dabbled.

We have £5 Each Way (as suggested) @ 25/1, BetFred, Liquidator, Champion Bumper, Cheltenham, Wednesday.

ON

Bet placed, its reference is 104/107
Bet ref: 104/107 £5.00 Single
Market Selection Price Hcp
Cheltenham
Outright Nrnb
EW 1/4 1,2,3 The Liquidator 25/1  
Total stake £ 10.00
Estimated return £ 166.25

Full stake £ 10.00
Full estimated return £ 166.25

[Doobs]

If Doobs or the other chap (sorry, can't find who it was right now) wants to suggest some dirty EW in the Mares hurdle, let me know please.

Yep back une artiste each way.  £25 e/w is fine.

[tikay]

If Doobs or the other chap (sorry, can't find who it was right now) wants to suggest some dirty EW in the Mares hurdle, let me know please.

Yep back une artiste each way.  £25 e/w is fine.

Thanks.

So we seem to have a variety of desirable results here, how can we lose?

We have £25 EW @6/1, BetVictor, Une Artiste, Cheltenham, Tuesday.

I have a bad feeling that I've got this wrong, so I'm off to bed, & will sort everyhing out in the morning. 

ON


Cheltenham 16:40
UNE ARTISTE (EW)
(Horse Racing Outright)
Odds:  6/1
Stake:  50.00
Possible Return:  237.50

[tikay]

Cheltenham Update

Some of there positions may be traded. For the most part, we have the right side of the price.

Gold Cup

Long Run, £25 @ 7/1, Doobs

Long Run, £10 @ 13/2 (BetFred OFFER).Doobs

Long Run, £10 EW @ 10/1 (Wm Hill Offer).  Fred

Captain Chris, £10 EW @ 25/1. Big Adz

Champion Hurdle

Hurricane Fly, £30 @ 3/1. Simon Galloway


Supreme Novices Hurdle

Jezki, £20 @ 8/1. Karabiner

Jezki, £20 @ 7/1 (Wm Hill Offer). Fred.

My Tent or Yours, £50 @ 6/4, FRED. £50 Free Bet if beaten.

Melodic Rendezvous, £25 EW @ 8/1, FIVE places paid. BadBeat.


Ryanair

Albertas Run, £10 EW @ 25/1, Non-Runner Free Bet. Ed Gascoigne.

Cue Card, £30 @ 5/1, FRED.

Triumph Hurdle

Irish Saint, £10 EW @ 14/1, Non-Runner No Bet. Ed Gascoigne.

Queen Mother Champion Chase

Mail de Bievre £10 EW @ 16/1, Karabiner

Sprinter Sacre, £20 @ Evens, FRED


Albert Bartlett Hurdle

Utopia des Bordes £10 EW @ 10/1. Chompy

Neptune

Pont Alexandre, £30 @ 15/8, FRED (backed to trade later)

Pont Alexandre, £25 @ 2.86, FRED (backed to trade later)

Pont Alexandre, £25 @ 2.88, FRED (backed to trade later)

World Hurdle

Oscar Whisky, £15 @ 6/1, FRED

Top Jockey

A P McCoy, £20 @ 15/2, Big Adz.

1st Day Aca, all to LOSE.

Simonsig, Sprinter Sacre, Hurricane Fly, Quevega. £10 @ 20/1. Fellaini85


Enhanced Double, QMCC & Arkle

Simonsig & Sprinter Sacre, £25 @ 2/1. BadBeat. (Possibly should be "FRED"?)


£2 Lucky 15 Big Adz

Rock on Ruby @ 10/1

Sir Des Champs @ 7/1

Boston Bob @ 10/1

Champion Court @ 10/1

Losses to date

Dynaste, £10

Colour Squadron, £5 Win

Colour Squadron, £5 place


Total Invested so far = £555

Losses so far = £20

bumped for ease of use

Is Melodic Rendezvous refunded?

Good man Tighty. I will try & make sense of all this in the morning.

I'll stick Melodic down as a Non-Runner, & also I think one of Ed Gascoignes has scratched, & we have a Free Bet in it's place, so will sort it all out.

I'll do a Daily Preview of Fred's liabilities, too.

I don't know what day it is right now.

[Tal]

Right. The bookies have remembered that they might be busy in the next fewdays, so they have sent their geekiest nerdlinger into a corner with a ZX Spectrum, a 6" BLT Sub on Italian bread and a blueberry juice to compile the odds for the Candidates Chess Tournament, which has the sheer temerity to kick off on Gold Cup Day.

I posted some stuff up here a few days back to say I thought 1.67 looked a good price for the favourite, Magnus Carlsen.

3 markets have opened up today AFAIK:

Ladbrokes go 8/15
Bwin go 1.45
Unibet go 1.55


I checked an hour ago and Betfair has £26 at 1.67 and £1,700 at 1.66.

I've seen a few simulations on 2+2's chess threads but they are largely based on rating alone and don't factor in tournament results (as opposed to matches), who they are winning games against (ie, individual results against these opponents) and where they get their rating points from (again, do they just beat up the rabbits or everyone). It is also important to factor in current form and no one seems to give that much credence.

Pretty much all of these things fall into Carlsen's favour and yet none of the simulations factor these things in.

One simulation still came out at a monstrous 70% chance of Carlsen winning (a little ambitious IMO but there we go). That would be about 1.4. On the whole, they seem to come out at 65%ish and that's 1.55. I don't claim to be am expert and I'm sure these odds setters have algorithms I can't imagine but I think Ladbrokes has called this right and that Betfair is therefore way out of line.

I have been a little bit cheeky and didn't want to shout out about the price until some of the bookies put up prices. They all go short on Kramnik (shorter than Aronian) and some as short as 4/1. That is no price. But outside 1/2 for Carlsen feels like a bet to me. He wins this tournament in these conditions at least 2 out of 3 times. We are being offered 6 out of 10.

I would recommend on this basis a decent bet on Magnus Carlsen to win the Candidates Chess Tournament with Betfair. If you can stretch to a biggie, go big. £100 for stealing a tenner from the machine? Whatever you're comfortable with. Appreciate you have to give commission on that, so judge it as you see fit, Fred.

[Bad Beat]

 Think Tighty asked if anyone had a view on the trainers for Cheltenham. I spoke to a couple of shrewd guys. They both said a straight match and Nicholls underpriced, no chance.

 One of them is a pretty geeky guy and a winner at gambling. He told me he made it 10/11 and 11/10 and he has had what might be his biggest bet all week on Mullins. He took 2/1 and it's only just under that on Betfair.

 He has also bet the Irish to get lots of winners as he didn't think the prices moved enough as the going kept getting softer.

 Just throwing it out there.

[McGlashan]

Betfair go commission free across all 7 Cheltenham Festival races today Tuesday after the weekend debacle of crashing during the football.

[redarmi]

Right. The bookies have remembered that they might be busy in the next fewdays, so they have sent their geekiest nerdlinger into a corner with a ZX Spectrum, a 6" BLT Sub on Italian bread and a blueberry juice to compile the odds for the Candidates Chess Tournament, which has the sheer temerity to kick off on Gold Cup Day.

I posted some stuff up here a few days back to say I thought 1.67 looked a good price for the favourite, Magnus Carlsen.

3 markets have opened up today AFAIK:

Ladbrokes go 8/15
Bwin go 1.45
Unibet go 1.55


I checked an hour ago and Betfair has £26 at 1.67 and £1,700 at 1.66.

I've seen a few simulations on 2+2's chess threads but they are largely based on rating alone and don't factor in tournament results (as opposed to matches), who they are winning games against (ie, individual results against these opponents) and where they get their rating points from (again, do they just beat up the rabbits or everyone). It is also important to factor in current form and no one seems to give that much credence.

Pretty much all of these things fall into Carlsen's favour and yet none of the simulations factor these things in.

One simulation still came out at a monstrous 70% chance of Carlsen winning (a little ambitious IMO but there we go). That would be about 1.4. On the whole, they seem to come out at 65%ish and that's 1.55. I don't claim to be am expert and I'm sure these odds setters have algorithms I can't imagine but I think Ladbrokes has called this right and that Betfair is therefore way out of line.

I have been a little bit cheeky and didn't want to shout out about the price until some of the bookies put up prices. They all go short on Kramnik (shorter than Aronian) and some as short as 4/1. That is no price. But outside 1/2 for Carlsen feels like a bet to me. He wins this tournament in these conditions at least 2 out of 3 times. We are being offered 6 out of 10.

I would recommend on this basis a decent bet on Magnus Carlsen to win the Candidates Chess Tournament with Betfair. If you can stretch to a biggie, go big. £100 for stealing a tenner from the machine? Whatever you're comfortable with. Appreciate you have to give commission on that, so judge it as you see fit, Fred.

Good analysis.  Using ratings then adding in subjective stuff is a very solid approach and forms the basis of what I do on a lot of sports and, if I am honest, i learnt it from the likes of Tony Bloom etc so this seems a really solid bet to me.

[tikay]

Right. The bookies have remembered that they might be busy in the next fewdays, so they have sent their geekiest nerdlinger into a corner with a ZX Spectrum, a 6" BLT Sub on Italian bread and a blueberry juice to compile the odds for the Candidates Chess Tournament, which has the sheer temerity to kick off on Gold Cup Day.

I posted some stuff up here a few days back to say I thought 1.67 looked a good price for the favourite, Magnus Carlsen.

3 markets have opened up today AFAIK:

Ladbrokes go 8/15
Bwin go 1.45
Unibet go 1.55


I checked an hour ago and Betfair has £26 at 1.67 and £1,700 at 1.66.

I've seen a few simulations on 2+2's chess threads but they are largely based on rating alone and don't factor in tournament results (as opposed to matches), who they are winning games against (ie, individual results against these opponents) and where they get their rating points from (again, do they just beat up the rabbits or everyone). It is also important to factor in current form and no one seems to give that much credence.

Pretty much all of these things fall into Carlsen's favour and yet none of the simulations factor these things in.

One simulation still came out at a monstrous 70% chance of Carlsen winning (a little ambitious IMO but there we go). That would be about 1.4. On the whole, they seem to come out at 65%ish and that's 1.55. I don't claim to be am expert and I'm sure these odds setters have algorithms I can't imagine but I think Ladbrokes has called this right and that Betfair is therefore way out of line.

I have been a little bit cheeky and didn't want to shout out about the price until some of the bookies put up prices. They all go short on Kramnik (shorter than Aronian) and some as short as 4/1. That is no price. But outside 1/2 for Carlsen feels like a bet to me. He wins this tournament in these conditions at least 2 out of 3 times. We are being offered 6 out of 10.

I would recommend on this basis a decent bet on Magnus Carlsen to win the Candidates Chess Tournament with Betfair. If you can stretch to a biggie, go big. £100 for stealing a tenner from the machine? Whatever you're comfortable with. Appreciate you have to give commission on that, so judge it as you see fit, Fred.

Good analysis.  Using ratings then adding in subjective stuff is a very solid approach and forms the basis of what I do on a lot of sports and, if I am honest, i learnt it from the likes of Tony Bloom etc so this seems a really solid bet to me.

Noted, reds, thank you.

We will be plunging along the lines Tal suggested.

I wonder if the same thought occurred to you as it did me?

Tal, who I'm sure will admit to being a Grade One Ice-Cream a year or so ago, has reallly used Fred, & the advice of some of you guys, well. He knows Chess better than anyone here, always has, but that price analysis is proper pro punting stuff. Whether the bet wins or loses matters not. The fundamentals were correct, & he proved the value. He has long waved goodbye to all that "I fancy United tonight" stuff.

I speak, of course, as an Ice-Cream, so the comments are not intended to be patronising.

[tikay]

Think Tighty asked if anyone had a view on the trainers for Cheltenham. I spoke to a couple of shrewd guys. They both said a straight match and Nicholls underpriced, no chance.

 One of them is a pretty geeky guy and a winner at gambling. He told me he made it 10/11 and 11/10 and he has had what might be his biggest bet all week on Mullins. He took 2/1 and it's only just under that on Betfair.

 He has also bet the Irish to get lots of winners as he didn't think the prices moved enough as the going kept getting softer.

 Just throwing it out there.

Thanks Neil.

I think it was Tighty that flagged up the "Top Trainer" suggestion, so let us see if he is interested in that.

I have no interest in punting for the sake of it, but if we can justify the bet, then it would be good fun & should give us a multi-day sweat.

[tikay]

Right. The bookies have remembered that they might be busy in the next fewdays, so they have sent their geekiest nerdlinger into a corner with a ZX Spectrum, a 6" BLT Sub on Italian bread and a blueberry juice to compile the odds for the Candidates Chess Tournament, which has the sheer temerity to kick off on Gold Cup Day.

I posted some stuff up here a few days back to say I thought 1.67 looked a good price for the favourite, Magnus Carlsen.

3 markets have opened up today AFAIK:

Ladbrokes go 8/15
Bwin go 1.45
Unibet go 1.55


I checked an hour ago and Betfair has £26 at 1.67 and £1,700 at 1.66.

I've seen a few simulations on 2+2's chess threads but they are largely based on rating alone and don't factor in tournament results (as opposed to matches), who they are winning games against (ie, individual results against these opponents) and where they get their rating points from (again, do they just beat up the rabbits or everyone). It is also important to factor in current form and no one seems to give that much credence.

Pretty much all of these things fall into Carlsen's favour and yet none of the simulations factor these things in.

One simulation still came out at a monstrous 70% chance of Carlsen winning (a little ambitious IMO but there we go). That would be about 1.4. On the whole, they seem to come out at 65%ish and that's 1.55. I don't claim to be am expert and I'm sure these odds setters have algorithms I can't imagine but I think Ladbrokes has called this right and that Betfair is therefore way out of line.

I have been a little bit cheeky and didn't want to shout out about the price until some of the bookies put up prices. They all go short on Kramnik (shorter than Aronian) and some as short as 4/1. That is no price. But outside 1/2 for Carlsen feels like a bet to me. He wins this tournament in these conditions at least 2 out of 3 times. We are being offered 6 out of 10.

I would recommend on this basis a decent bet on Magnus Carlsen to win the Candidates Chess Tournament with Betfair. If you can stretch to a biggie, go big. £100 for stealing a tenner from the machine? Whatever you're comfortable with. Appreciate you have to give commission on that, so judge it as you see fit, Fred.

Morning Simon.

Fantastic, thanks!

We have got on as advised, this should a tremendous one, hopefully you will manage your Daily Updates, as you did with the London Chess Masters? 

We took all that 1.67, & then the rest at 1.66.

We have....

£26 @ 1.67, Betfair, Carlsen, World Champs Candidate Winner

£74 @ 1.66, Betfair, Carlsen, World Champs Candidate Winner

ON

World Champs Candidate 2013 / Winner  Magnus Carlsen Back 25760721787  12-Mar-13
06:47    1.66 74.00  1.66 12-Mar-13 06:47   
 
World Champs Candidate 2013 / Winner  Magnus Carlsen Back 25760718020  12-Mar-13
06:47    1.67 26.00  1.67 12-Mar-13 06:47