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Author Topic: Tips for Tikay  (Read 13331816 times)
Ricardov83
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« Reply #34830 on: March 22, 2013, 08:41:44 AM »

Did Dubai ever put up his WCQ suggestion?
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sovietsong
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« Reply #34831 on: March 22, 2013, 08:46:33 AM »

Did Dubai ever put up his WCQ suggestion?

I was just looking for that!
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tikay
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« Reply #34832 on: March 22, 2013, 08:46:36 AM »

Did Dubai ever put up his WCQ suggestion?

No!

Don't remind him, ffs.
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Dubai
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« Reply #34833 on: March 22, 2013, 10:00:22 AM »

Waiting for the markets to settle Smiley

Actually think Fred should try to back England at 1.03 just to chalk up its shortest priced winner and prove even at 1/33 some things are value as this clearly is. Doubt you will get matched now tho as we will be at back at queue
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TightEnd
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« Reply #34834 on: March 22, 2013, 10:22:32 AM »

Deep sigh

I think there is F1 value this weekend

Three teams are demonstrably quicker than the rest, as shown in Australia and throughout Malaysia practice so far

Renault
Ferrari
Red Bull

One team though is much softer on its tyres. Raikkonen did Australia in two stops, the other leading teams 3 and still won, because the tyre wear was lower

Malaysia is notoriously severe on tyres..heat and abrasive track

"I hope we have enough tyres to survive the race. Tyre wear was pretty severe for everyone” Sebastian Vettel 

The betting market has the usual suspects at the top

Renault, Red Bull and Ferrari. Nothing to go at in the star names, all seem fairly priced

http://www.oddschecker.com/motorsport/formula-one/malaysian-grand-prix/winner

However, there is a Renault driver priced at 2.5x the price of Hamilton, whose Mercedes tyre wear doesn't really have him in contention in Malaysia (spenat most of freepractice working on that) and around the same price as McLaren, and Button's pace is around 1.25s a lap slower than the front runners

In practice earlier

1. Kimi Raikkonen (Fin), Lotus - 1 minute, 36.569 seconds

2. Sebastian Vettel (Ger), Red Bull - 1:36.558

3. Felipe Massa (Brz), Ferrari - 1:36.661

4. Fernando Alonso (Spa), Ferrari - 1:36.985

5. Mark Webber (Aus), Red Bull - 1:37.026

6. Romain Grosjean (Fra), Lotus - 1:37.206

Grosjean will probably qualify around there, but the Renault is a stronger race car than the Red Bull on the evidence of Australia, albeit we all expect Red Bull to improve significantly through the season with upgrades

Iffy weather will randomise the result too

Recommend £5 Grosjean to podium 11/2 Coral (assume 6/1Bwin is a no go) Malaysian Grand Prix


http://www.oddschecker.com/motorsport/formula-one/malaysian-grand-prix/podium-finish

Massa at a smilar price is also worthy of consideration

Two issues put me off

- Ferrari pull him aside if Alonso is behind, whether openly or covertly via straegy
- Ferrari tyre wear worse Than Renault, so the percentages are a bit less in our favour


Usual caveats apply

- tough sport to bet on
- plenty of randomising influences, tyres and weather in Malaysia notably
- Grosjean spent last year playing F1 as dodgems etc etc
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TightEnd
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« Reply #34835 on: March 22, 2013, 10:27:21 AM »

one more note

Williams development driver Susie Wolff, acting as a BBC analyst on Friday, said: "It is clear Raikkonen is on a roll this weekend - second in P1, fastest in P2 and fastest in the wet as well.

"Everything is where we expected from first practice. Everyone is in roughly the same order as Australia.

"Lotus are quick, as are Ferrari and Red Bull and I think it will come down to tyre management on Sunday.


Grosjean 6/1 to podium, Raikkonen 4/9. Same team, same tyres. Not the same quality of driver, but that creates the price opportunity
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My eyes are open wide
By the way,I made it through the day
I watch the world outside
By the way, I'm leaving out today
tikay
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« Reply #34836 on: March 22, 2013, 10:33:18 AM »

Deep sigh

I think there is F1 value this weekend

Three teams are demonstrably quicker than the rest, as shown in Australia and throughout Malaysia practice so far

Renault
Ferrari
Red Bull

One team though is much softer on its tyres. Raikkonen did Australia in two stops, the other leading teams 3 and still won, because the tyre wear was lower

Malaysia is notoriously severe on tyres..heat and abrasive track

"I hope we have enough tyres to survive the race. Tyre wear was pretty severe for everyone” Sebastian Vettel 

The betting market has the usual suspects at the top

Renault, Red Bull and Ferrari. Nothing to go at in the star names, all seem fairly priced

http://www.oddschecker.com/motorsport/formula-one/malaysian-grand-prix/winner

However, there is a Renault driver priced at 2.5x the price of Hamilton, whose Mercedes tyre wear doesn't really have him in contention in Malaysia (spenat most of freepractice working on that) and around the same price as McLaren, and Button's pace is around 1.25s a lap slower than the front runners

In practice earlier

1. Kimi Raikkonen (Fin), Lotus - 1 minute, 36.569 seconds

2. Sebastian Vettel (Ger), Red Bull - 1:36.558

3. Felipe Massa (Brz), Ferrari - 1:36.661

4. Fernando Alonso (Spa), Ferrari - 1:36.985

5. Mark Webber (Aus), Red Bull - 1:37.026

6. Romain Grosjean (Fra), Lotus - 1:37.206

Grosjean will probably qualify around there, but the Renault is a stronger race car than the Red Bull on the evidence of Australia, albeit we all expect Red Bull to improve significantly through the season with upgrades

Iffy weather will randomise the result too

Recommend £5 Grosjean to podium 11/2 Coral (assume 6/1Bwin is a no go) Malaysian Grand Prix


http://www.oddschecker.com/motorsport/formula-one/malaysian-grand-prix/podium-finish

Massa at a smilar price is also worthy of consideration

Two issues put me off

- Ferrari pull him aside if Alonso is behind, whether openly or covertly via straegy
- Ferrari tyre wear worse Than Renault, so the percentages are a bit less in our favour


Usual caveats apply

- tough sport to bet on
- plenty of randomising influences, tyres and weather in Malaysia notably
- Grosjean spent last year playing F1 as dodgems etc etc

Lovely Rich, even though we are poo at F1. £5 bets @ 6/1 I like, if they rep value, & I think this does. I am OK with BWin, too, so we got 6/1.

We have £5 @ 6/1, BWIn, Grosjean to Podiumate, Malayasian F1 GP.

ON


Type of bet
Bet slip ID
Date
Total stake
Possible winnings
Single bet
1SWBEAYZYZ
3/22/2013 11:18 AM
5.00 GBP
35.00 GBP
Date   Event  Bet  Pick  Result  Odds 
3/24/2013 9:00:00 AM    GP Malaysia GP Malaysia - Race  Top 3 bet  Romain Grosjean (FRA/Lotus)  ?  7.00 
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c4ught
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« Reply #34837 on: March 22, 2013, 10:47:42 AM »


Usual caveats apply

- tough sport to bet on
- plenty of randomising influences, tyres and weather in Malaysia notably
- Grosjean spent last year playing F1 as dodgems etc etc

If prices are correct/not value are we not better looking to lay someone?

Webber podium market has liquidity at 3.55 & 3.6 as an option.

Hamilton though has £10 to be laid at 4.5. Risking £35 to win £10 which I would consider value given Massa is 5.1 for the podium.

Lay Hamilton to get on the podium £10 @ 4.5
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Doobs
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« Reply #34838 on: March 22, 2013, 10:55:43 AM »


Usual caveats apply

- tough sport to bet on
- plenty of randomising influences, tyres and weather in Malaysia notably
- Grosjean spent last year playing F1 as dodgems etc etc

If prices are correct/not value are we not better looking to lay someone?

Webber podium market has liquidity at 3.55 & 3.6 as an option.

Hamilton though has £10 to be laid at 4.5. Risking £35 to win £10 which I would consider value given Massa is 5.1 for the podium.

Lay Hamilton to get on the podium £10 @ 4.5

Think you are mad.  Weather forecast suggests a strong possibility for wet for Sunday.  Hamilton is likely the best driver in the wet.  His car has tyre issues, but they aren't going to be the same in the wet.  Disagree with tighty on the strength of the cars.  I think it is Red Bull first; Lotus, Ferrari and Mercedes close to each other; rest.

I'd never put Massa anywhere close to Hamilton here.
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Most of the bets placed so far seem more like hopeful punts rather than value spots
tikay
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« Reply #34839 on: March 22, 2013, 10:56:34 AM »


Usual caveats apply

- tough sport to bet on
- plenty of randomising influences, tyres and weather in Malaysia notably
- Grosjean spent last year playing F1 as dodgems etc etc

If prices are correct/not value are we not better looking to lay someone?

Webber podium market has liquidity at 3.55 & 3.6 as an option.

Hamilton though has £10 to be laid at 4.5. Risking £35 to win £10 which I would consider value given Massa is 5.1 for the podium.

Lay Hamilton to get on the podium £10 @ 4.5

Morning Mr c4ught, thank you.

You may have a point there, & although we just don't do F1 vey well at all, I don't mind giving this a spin. We shall see. As it happens, I've laid a few myself this morning.

We have LAID Hamilton, Podium Finish,  £10 @ 4.5, Betfair, for a £35 Liability.

ON

Lay Backer's
Odds Backer's
Stake Your
Liability Your
Payout  
Lewis Hamilton  4.5 £10.00 £45.00 £35.00  
Ref: 25967256306 Bet placed: 10:39 22-Mar-13
3 to be  placed
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« Reply #34840 on: March 22, 2013, 10:57:44 AM »


PS - I am mad.
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tikay
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« Reply #34841 on: March 22, 2013, 11:04:14 AM »


Daily Report @ 1100, Friday March 22nd

PROFIT on Month = £670.30

Outstanding bets £859.50





https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0Aia1Hxq-NDNWdFk3UmlTSXMzTjRBTVNfOWRndVFsZHc#gid=22
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Doobs
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« Reply #34842 on: March 22, 2013, 11:09:55 AM »

In a rush this morning tikay?

Cup of tea in order I think.
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Most of the bets placed so far seem more like hopeful punts rather than value spots
TightEnd
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« Reply #34843 on: March 22, 2013, 11:13:25 AM »

Wet weather is a definite randomising factor as not only does it mean Mercedes are better (performance closer), it means the tyre factor (excessive wear) is lower.

Personally, wouldn't lay Hamilton for precisely that reason, but no biggie, we can funk against him now

and Massa is eccentric in the wet to say the least.

A fiver on Grosjean is cognisant of the weather/dodgems risks


Where I differ from Doobs is that I think in the dry, the Mercedes is about 0.75s per lap behind on race pace, if not single lap for qualfying.
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I watch the world outside
By the way, I'm leaving out today
dwayne110
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« Reply #34844 on: March 22, 2013, 11:13:33 AM »

Nice monthly return, Cheltenham served you well I see!
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