|
MajorMajor
|
 |
« Reply #37575 on: April 13, 2013, 02:18:19 PM » |
|
When will it be decided?
|
|
|
|
|
Logged
|
|
|
|
|
rinswun
|
|
« Reply #37576 on: April 13, 2013, 02:19:47 PM » |
|
I just asked a PGA Tour player via the medium of Twitter if he'd expect to be  'd in the same spot. His one word reply 'yep'. I guess we are about to see if Tiger is bigger than golf. |
|
|
|
|
Logged
|
|
|
|
|
redarmi
|
|
« Reply #37577 on: April 13, 2013, 02:20:11 PM » |
|
I am trying to work out the implied odds on Betfair. Not sure if my thinking is correct here or not but I can lay Tiger for $100 to lose $520 @6.20 right now if he is not 'ed I can back him back at, say 4.50 for a loss of $170 if he wins. or a -EV of about -$37 (22%*$170) If he is 'ed I win $100 so am i not effectively risking $37 to win $100 that he is disqualified? or have I done something wrong? Seems VC odds compilers are way off if that is the case. i think that is about right i have backed him to be dq at 8-11 Surely he should be 5/2 according to the outrights though? Obviously my maths may be off but the implied odds are suggesting him not to be disqualified are massive. Still not 100% sure of my maths though..... |
|
|
|
|
Logged
|
|
|
|
|
Dubai
|
|
« Reply #37578 on: April 13, 2013, 02:24:04 PM » |
|
If you think he will be disqualified you are better off laying him and backing him back if he isnt and its not close. If you lay 6.4 it would require Tiger Woods to be 3.2 if he isnt dq for you to be TAKING EVENS!!!!!!! Obviously he is going to be bigger than this so you are taking decent odds against depending on what his price would settle at
ie lay £100 to lose 640
Back £200 to win 640. You win £100 if he is dq and lose £100 on the book if you take 3.2 when he isnt dq. So every increment over 3.2 represent further odds against. What was his price before the rumours? And you can then work out what price bf think he is to be dq
|
|
|
|
« Last Edit: April 13, 2013, 02:25:50 PM by Dubai »
|
Logged
|
|
|
|
|
MahoganyVic
|
|
« Reply #37579 on: April 13, 2013, 02:24:52 PM » |
|
Trading the win price gives no @ 1.4 or something I think, so way out of line with what other bookies are putting up |
|
|
|
|
Logged
|
|
|
|
|
Dubai
|
|
« Reply #37580 on: April 13, 2013, 02:26:43 PM » |
|
Trading the win price gives no @ 1.4 or something I think, so way out of line with what other bookies are putting up exactly. So if you think he is going to be disqualified do not back it with the bookies, lay betfair. Conversely have a chunk on no dq, lay woods, trade back and nice little arb |
|
|
|
|
Logged
|
|
|
|
|
moonandback
|
|
« Reply #37581 on: April 13, 2013, 02:28:28 PM » |
|
Augusta are probably waiting for tiger to himself their is NO WAY that aclub built by Bobby Jones will bend the rules for tiger, when Jones was congratulated on calling apenalty on himself he replied you may as well congratulate me for not robbing a bank!. this will be the attitude of the members and CBS needs Augusta more than AUgusta needs CBS so i dont think pressure from tv will matter. |
|
|
|
|
Logged
|
its better that i have a bottle in front of me than a frontal lobotomy
|
|
|
|
rinswun
|
|
« Reply #37582 on: April 13, 2013, 02:28:48 PM » |
|
The longer it goes before a decision is announced, the more likely he is to be ok I think. I firmly believe they are in there trying to work a way around this now.
I bet there's a rules chief now going, 'why did we penalise the kid?!'.
|
|
|
|
|
Logged
|
|
|
|
|
redarmi
|
|
« Reply #37583 on: April 13, 2013, 02:32:40 PM » |
|
Just on a different note how stupid exactly are betfair not to have a market up on this? It would probably get 100k of volume....
|
|
|
|
|
Logged
|
|
|
|
|
moonandback
|
|
« Reply #37584 on: April 13, 2013, 02:38:11 PM » |
|
Tiger had 3 options A the dropping zone B playing from where it was (he said he went 2 yards further back or C . Drop a ball behind the water hazard, keeping the point at which the original ball last crossed the margin of the water hazard directly between the hole and the spot on which the ball is dropped, with no limit to how far behind the water hazard the ball may be dropped; He did a mixture of B&C so has to be 'd bet 100% on getting 'd |
|
|
|
|
Logged
|
its better that i have a bottle in front of me than a frontal lobotomy
|
|
|
|
Doobs
|
|
« Reply #37585 on: April 13, 2013, 02:40:17 PM » |
|
Did we miss all the e/w golf bets this morning? Prices all gone now.
I have laid Woods on Betfair, and not backing him to survive as 4/6 seems awful skinny to me. Think prices are the wrong way round. I am a shit golfer if that is a consideration.
|
|
|
|
|
Logged
|
Most of the bets placed so far seem more like hopeful punts rather than value spots
|
|
|
|
MahoganyVic
|
|
« Reply #37586 on: April 13, 2013, 02:41:17 PM » |
|
How would he know where c is though? Or was he an absolute mile from the line? Is it possible he assumed the ball hit the pin and rebounded straight back towards him?
I didnt actually watch it, but was the rules man with that 3-ball not questioned during the drop?
|
|
|
|
|
Logged
|
|
|
|
|
redarmi
|
|
« Reply #37587 on: April 13, 2013, 02:43:09 PM » |
|
Mahan just tweeted he has heard Tiger will get a two shot penalty. If that is true it is the absolutely worst possible thing they could do.
|
|
|
|
|
Logged
|
|
|
|
|
rinswun
|
|
« Reply #37588 on: April 13, 2013, 02:44:15 PM » |
|
How would he know where c is though? Or was he an absolute mile from the line? Is it possible he assumed the ball hit the pin and rebounded straight back towards him?
I didnt actually watch it, but was the rules man with that 3-ball not questioned during the drop?
He wasn't asked and that has to factor into it. If you are even in doubt, just ask the official. It's Tiger's admission in the post round interview which really shows that he knew he was dropping away from the original spot. |
|
|
|
|
Logged
|
|
|
|
|
horseplayer
|
|
« Reply #37589 on: April 13, 2013, 02:44:28 PM » |
|
2 shot penalty it appears
|
|
|
|
|
Logged
|
|
|
|
|
Author