Tips for Tikay

[Ant040689]

I had a £10 double on Horschel for the Nworlins tourney (33-1) and Horseplayer to get sensitive about aftertiming (1-33) the next morning. Oi oi!

Horschel reminded me of Lewandoski, to be honest.

Yuh, very good shout tbf.

I've been trying to find a price for Billy Horschplayer for the US Open but nothing doing?

Liked his ability to find fairways and greens over the weekend. Reminded me a lot of Bolassie at his best. Just a touch concerned about his temperament, which put me in mind of a below-par Glenn Murray.

Will leave it until the Monday after the US Open before I decide whether or not I backed him.

Haven't been reading this thread in a while, but yesssssss. Good stuff.

[Tal]

Probably not one for Fred, but just in case I get accused of being aftertimey...

I'm interested in a particular chess game in Cuba (marathon bet is a joyous beast for no one except me ), where Leinier Dominguez-Perez is playing Dmitry Andreikin in the Capablanca Memorial tournament.

Dominguez is a strong player but can't buy a win at the moment, being the guy who has drawn all seven of his games so far.

A surprise leader is now all but certain to finish above the Cuban and so there's little reason to expect him to go full bore today against a guy in Andreikin who has beaten him twice out of the three classical games (ie normal time control games) they have played (albeit in 2011). Andreikin isn't setting the world alight either, drawing five of his seven in what seems to be a pretty stodgy comp, the leader aside.

The draw is 1.45, which is basically the same as the price of the draw in the other two games and I'd make it nearer 1/3.

Margins are a little tight for Fred tbf, but fun what a little research during a lunch break in Starbucks can offer.

http://www.marathonbet.com/en/betting/Chess/


Edit: will qualify all of this by saying my research has not been so thorough as to suggest I know more than the market/odds setters. That's probably a better reason not to bet on it, perhaps. I'm slowly learning, honest.

[MajorMajor]

MornIng TK
The early IPL game is the Royals vs the Challengers. Over 9.5 sixes is evens with Ladbrokes. Both team have bog hitters and Gayle or Watson could hit ten on their own. Really like this bet. Everywhere else is 5-6.

Recommend 50quid over 9.5 sixes. Starts at 11.

Bet just won...

[tikay]

MornIng TK
The early IPL game is the Royals vs the Challengers. Over 9.5 sixes is evens with Ladbrokes. Both team have bog hitters and Gayle or Watson could hit ten on their own. Really like this bet. Everywhere else is 5-6.

Recommend 50quid over 9.5 sixes. Starts at 11.

Bet just won...

Yay!

Well done Majorx2.

Sorry we never followed you in as suggested, but I was hoping for some other opinions.

Keep them coming please.

[rinswun]

Billy Horschel has the game to be a top 10 in the world golfer. Whether or not he gets there will be down to his ability to deal with the mental side of the game. The guy has incredible talent.

The thing with the form argument suggested by sharky is that it is far too simplistic and doesn't take into account the different attributes needed on different courses. For example Kapalua and Waialae are chalk and cheese yet they follow each other on the schedule. Whilst I'd back a guy like Watson or Dustin Johnson on the first track, I wouldn't touch them on the second even if they had won the week before. Sure it's a reasonable way to gauge the shape of someone's current game but it could also be an easy way of backing a player at a much shorter price than they should be on a course they are not suited to. As with any bet we need to make a much broader assessment than how someone has performed in their past couple of tournaments.


Oh a different subject, we have had an Owais Shah sighting! Sadly he only got in with 4 balls remaining with his team needing just 5 to win, managing to run himself out after scoring 1 from his only ball. Still, at least we are off the mark 

[Karabiner]

Did bogey really used to mean par?

Apparently this was different either side of the Atlantic, but in one you had to play against a nominal score set by Mr Bogey, whereas the other had a course score (hence par for the course).

Reinforces my 'golf is a ridiculous game that I nevertheless enjoy watching and occasionally punting on' principle.

Not only did bogey mean par on this side of the pond but we also used to use a smaller golf-ball too, 1.66" in diameter as opposed to the 1.68" used by the yanks.

Both the bigger ball and "par" are now standard.

Re. Billy Horschel: His swing and tempo remind me a lot of Nick Price at his best.

He has the technical potential to become a superstar imo.

[BigAdz]

I see Kieran Burke has told Anthiny Knott to remove Hunt Ball from his stables.

Brave move for a very small stable, regardless of what owner has done

[The Camel]

I see Kieran Burke has told Anthiny Knott to remove Hunt Ball from his stables.

Brave move for a very small stable, regardless of what owner has done

Anthony Knott is an embarrassment.

If I had enough wonga to own a horse I'd send it to Burke, he's done a great job with Hunt Ball.

[doubleup]

Did bogey really used to mean par?

Apparently this was different either side of the Atlantic, but in one you had to play against a nominal score set by Mr Bogey, whereas the other had a course score (hence par for the course).

Reinforces my 'golf is a ridiculous game that I nevertheless enjoy watching and occasionally punting on' principle.

Not only did bogey mean par on this side of the pond but we also used to use a smaller golf-ball too, 1.66" in diameter as opposed to the 1.68" used by the yanks.

Both the bigger ball and "par" are now standard.

Re. Billy Horschel: His swing and tempo remind me a lot of Nick Price at his best.

He has the technical potential to become a superstar imo.

http://www.ebay.co.uk/itm/Vintage-Dunlop-Warwick-Golf-Balls-box-of-1-dozen-still-wrapped-in-red-wrappers-/121003628111?pt=UK_Sports_Memorabilia_ET&hash=item1c2c60d64f

[horseplayer]

I see Kieran Burke has told Anthiny Knott to remove Hunt Ball from his stables.

Brave move for a very small stable, regardless of what owner has done

Anthony Knott is an embarrassment.

If I had enough wonga to own a horse I'd send it to Burke, he's done a great job with Hunt Ball.

bugger the cows

very brave he has done well with very limited ammunition but so have plenty of other small trainers, to ask to lose your star horse is an interesting move

[bobby1]

A couple of things struck my eye re some footy this week Tony.

If Villa v Sunderland was a game taking place in some continental leagues then the draw would be much shorter than it is tonight. A point for both teams puts them 3 and 6 points clear of the team third from bottom. In Italy it would be about 8/11 or 1/5 depending on how str8 it was.

There has to be some value in backing these related matches too. Does anyone spot a flaw in these?

A double on Crystal Palace to beat Millwall 2morrow and Peterboro to beat Palace on Saturday.

A little more related but still worth a bet might be a treble on Millwall to beat Palace 2morrow, Palace to beat Peterboro on Saturday and the draw in the Huddersfield v Barnsley game.( if Palace are beating Peterboro than that game could easily end up a carve up draw late on)

Obv both bets cannot win, could also just wait to see what the result is in the Millwall v Palace game 2morrow and then back any related doubles for Saturday( if Palace win then obv just a single on Peterboro on Saturday might be the call) but the markets will change a bit after the Millwall v Palace game tho. If the game 2morrow ends in a draw then both are losers.


Not really thread bets as such mate unless you did want to throw a small bet at them as dbles and trebs aren't really your thing but these are related contingencies ( I'm  surprised firms have the weekend Palace game out tbh) , the value is multiplied thru each game because if one happens then the odds on the next happening are wrong/shorter.

cheers

[Karabiner]

Did bogey really used to mean par?

Apparently this was different either side of the Atlantic, but in one you had to play against a nominal score set by Mr Bogey, whereas the other had a course score (hence par for the course).

Reinforces my 'golf is a ridiculous game that I nevertheless enjoy watching and occasionally punting on' principle.

Not only did bogey mean par on this side of the pond but we also used to use a smaller golf-ball too, 1.66" in diameter as opposed to the 1.68" used by the yanks.

Both the bigger ball and "par" are now standard.

Re. Billy Horschel: His swing and tempo remind me a lot of Nick Price at his best.

He has the technical potential to become a superstar imo.

http://www.ebay.co.uk/itm/Vintage-Dunlop-Warwick-Golf-Balls-box-of-1-dozen-still-wrapped-in-red-wrappers-/121003628111?pt=UK_Sports_Memorabilia_ET&hash=item1c2c60d64f

I have a box of Dunlop "Maxfli" balls (c1950's) with two still in the wrapper.

I also have a smooth-faced lofting iron c1880 and a few other clubs left over from when I used to dabble in that sort of thing twenty-five years or so ago.

I sold all my best stuff in the auctions in Chester.

[adnmdv]

A couple of things struck my eye re some footy this week Tony.

If Villa v Sunderland was a game taking place in some continental leagues then the draw would be much shorter than it is tonight. A point for both teams puts them 3 and 6 points clear of the team third from bottom. In Italy it would be about 8/11 or 1/5 depending on how str8 it was.

There has to be some value in backing these related matches too. Does anyone spot a flaw in these?

A double on Crystal Palace to beat Millwall 2morrow and Peterboro to beat Palace on Saturday.

A little more related but still worth a bet might be a treble on Millwall to beat Palace 2morrow, Palace to beat Peterboro on Saturday and the draw in the Huddersfield v Barnsley game.( if Palace are beating Peterboro than that game could easily end up a carve up draw late on)

Obv both bets cannot win, could also just wait to see what the result is in the Millwall v Palace game 2morrow and then back any related doubles for Saturday( if Palace win then obv just a single on Peterboro on Saturday might be the call) but the markets will change a bit after the Millwall v Palace game tho. If the game 2morrow ends in a draw then both are losers.


Not really thread bets as such mate unless you did want to throw a small bet at them as dbles and trebs aren't really your thing but these are related contingencies ( I'm  surprised firms have the weekend Palace game out tbh) , the value is multiplied thru each game because if one happens then the odds on the next happening are wrong/shorter.

cheers

Isn't the big problem with backing related contingencies multiples that it will prob cost accounts?

Don't think draw is really a bigger runner in tonight's game - a pt is not amazing for Villa as Wigan have a game in hand (which if they won would put them over Villa). Villa have Norwich away, Chelsea at home and then Wigan themselves away on the final day. Tonight's game is by far the most winnable of the lot, you don't want to settle for a draw here and let Wigan in with a chance of catching up. Plus, draws are much more prevalent in Italy and other countries due to [football] cultural reasons, they need not necessarily apply here.

[Dubai]

It will cost accounts if you never give any action. Luckily some of us like to actually gamble occasionally so we should be ok.

The shrewdies aka nits might suffer, as imo they should 

[tikay]

A couple of things struck my eye re some footy this week Tony.

If Villa v Sunderland was a game taking place in some continental leagues then the draw would be much shorter than it is tonight. A point for both teams puts them 3 and 6 points clear of the team third from bottom. In Italy it would be about 8/11 or 1/5 depending on how str8 it was.

There has to be some value in backing these related matches too. Does anyone spot a flaw in these?

A double on Crystal Palace to beat Millwall 2morrow and Peterboro to beat Palace on Saturday.

A little more related but still worth a bet might be a treble on Millwall to beat Palace 2morrow, Palace to beat Peterboro on Saturday and the draw in the Huddersfield v Barnsley game.( if Palace are beating Peterboro than that game could easily end up a carve up draw late on)

Obv both bets cannot win, could also just wait to see what the result is in the Millwall v Palace game 2morrow and then back any related doubles for Saturday( if Palace win then obv just a single on Peterboro on Saturday might be the call) but the markets will change a bit after the Millwall v Palace game tho. If the game 2morrow ends in a draw then both are losers.


Not really thread bets as such mate unless you did want to throw a small bet at them as dbles and trebs aren't really your thing but these are related contingencies ( I'm  surprised firms have the weekend Palace game out tbh) , the value is multiplied thru each game because if one happens then the odds on the next happening are wrong/shorter.

cheers

Hi Phil.

What sort of numbers did you have in mind?

I'll leave it 15 minutes, then go ahead & decide for myself if no advice incoming.

12/5 the draw tonight I gather, so maybe £25 or £50 on that, & then £10 & or £20 dubs & trebs on the three games?

I'll go ahead on my own back unless someone wiser than me (if such a person exists) steers me better.

PS - I may only have intermittent availability this evening, as I am sort of working-ish.