Tips for Tikay

[T_Mar]

This goes back to the heads or tails example I gave the other day, TMar.

If someone offers 2/1 on heads, you bet. If they offer 1/2 on heads, you lay.

If you've bet 100 @2/1 when the bookie switches to 1/2, you don't just close your position; you press and take a second lot of value, capitalising on the second error.

If instead of 1/2, the bookie offered Even money, closing your bet and locking up your profit is fine, as is letting your money ride.

I might be missing tricks here, but I still dont see why you cant treat the bets seperately. Suppose your 'staking plan' is 1-5 pts, you have had 2pts win @ 25/1, now your slection is 5/2 and you think its more like a 7/2 shot, making it a +EV lay - why cant you just make the bet within your normal staking plan as if you hadn't had the bet at 25/1 in the first place?

Even if you think the lay is a MAX bet, you can just stick within your staking plan, and not reverse your position completely?

That's absolutely fine and means you win twice.

I believe - cue calls to the contrary - that my argument is for the optimal strategy.

In simplistic terms, you've flopped quads and decide to bet one big blind on the river. It makes you money but you could get more bang for your buck

i'm not doubting you Tal, but would be interested to know if this was actually 'optimal', i'm not a maths buff but i'm struggling to see how it can be

[TightEnd]

PR etc

Both Mercedes drivers have been slashed for Monaco Grand Prix glory following today's opening practice sessions.

Nico Rosberg and Lewis Hamilton impressed on the street circuit and saw their race and pole position odds duly cut.

Rosberg was quickest in each of today's sessions, with Hamilton second in the afternoon after finishing fifth fastest in the morning.

For Sunday's race, Rosberg is now a best of 4/1 (Coral, William Hill) having been available at 7/1 this morning. Some firms have him as their favourite.

Hamilton is 17/4 with Spreadex in the same market, while championship leader Sebastian Vettel is out to a general 4/1. He was only ninth fastest this afternoon.

Fernando Alonso completes a packed top end of the market at 7/2. He also drifted after setting the third best time.

William Hill's Rupert Adams said: "The Mercedes look very quick but they might struggle to keep the speed for the duration of the Monaco Grand Prix."

In the pole position betting, Rosberg is now the 7/5 (BetVictor) favourite ahead of Hamilton, who is 2/1 with sportingbet.

That's certainly good news for our tip of a front-row Mercedes lock-out in qualifying, something Tom Millard put up at 5/2 earlier in the week.

Vettel and Alonso are out to 8/1 and 9/1 respectively for Saturday's shootout.

[Tal]

Must admit I'm interested in Alonso. From what I understand, they had to abort their full burnout laps today because Grosjean crashed. Also, Webber deliberately cut the chicane so a fast lap wouldn't be timed.

Mercedes have nothing to hide, as everyone knows they have one lap pace. Two unknown quantities in red and purple, plus I think Alonso is one of a select few drivers capable of multiple overtakes on this track (just not as many as he normally can manage)

[Tal]

This goes back to the heads or tails example I gave the other day, TMar.

If someone offers 2/1 on heads, you bet. If they offer 1/2 on heads, you lay.

If you've bet 100 @2/1 when the bookie switches to 1/2, you don't just close your position; you press and take a second lot of value, capitalising on the second error.

If instead of 1/2, the bookie offered Even money, closing your bet and locking up your profit is fine, as is letting your money ride.

I might be missing tricks here, but I still dont see why you cant treat the bets seperately. Suppose your 'staking plan' is 1-5 pts, you have had 2pts win @ 25/1, now your slection is 5/2 and you think its more like a 7/2 shot, making it a +EV lay - why cant you just make the bet within your normal staking plan as if you hadn't had the bet at 25/1 in the first place?

Even if you think the lay is a MAX bet, you can just stick within your staking plan, and not reverse your position completely?

That's absolutely fine and means you win twice.

I believe - cue calls to the contrary - that my argument is for the optimal strategy.

In simplistic terms, you've flopped quads and decide to bet one big blind on the river. It makes you money but you could get more bang for your buck

i'm not doubting you Tal, but would be interested to know if this was actually 'optimal', i'm not a maths buff but i'm struggling to see how it can be

I would think it is because you close a favourable position and then open another.

Say in my coin example the bookie, having gone from 2/1 to 1/2 gets wind that the price was wrong and chalks it up at Evens. I still have £100 on at twice the price (happy days) but I could be better off if I closed the bet when it went 1/2 and then layed on top, because (if I wanted to, but I wouldn't have to) I could now close that second bet for another profit.

As the market gets more liquid, there's an assumption that the price gets closer to the correct one. That being the case, closing when you're ahead and opening a new one when you're ahead the other way makes sense, because you are only ever in front.

This is my reasoning. It has been known to veer off-course.

[TightEnd]

Must admit I'm interested in Alonso. From what I understand, they had to abort their full burnout laps today because Grosjean crashed. Also, Webber deliberately cut the chicane so a fast lap wouldn't be timed.

Mercedes have nothing to hide, as everyone knows they have one lap pace. Two unknown quantities in red and purple, plus I think Alonso is one of a select few drivers capable of multiple overtakes on this track (just not as many as he normally can manage)

the best blog I read says

"fter the embarrassing slump from pole position in the race in Barcelona, there should be fewer problems for the Mercedes drivers in the race here, as Monaco is relatively easy on the tyres, with a smooth surface and no sustained high energy corners pushing the Pirelli rubber to its limit.

And in race simulation mode the time drop-off gave some encouragement to Mercedes where they were able to put the super-soft compound through its paces over a stint similar in length to what we can expect on Sunday, of around twenty-five laps, with minimal degradation showing.

That said they are still likely to need to make two stops on Sunday, where Lotus can definitely do one and probably Ferrari as well. This could prove decisive provided that the one stoppers are able to qualify at or near the front.

The Ferrari looks the most benign car here. It continued to show strong pace during a race stint as both Alonso and Felipe Massa, in fourth place, lapped consistently as the afternoon drew to a close. All day it seemed that the Ferrari drivers were able to do the lap time with less obvious effort going on in the cockpit compared to the Mercedes. But the Mercedes definitely has the one lap pace advantage."


We have Rosberg in one camp, Raikkonen in the other

Raikkonen chosen as he was more than twice the price of the Ferrari, with the best tyre profile

Of course Alonso is the most likely to spoil our bets I would say, but everyone knows that/at 4-1 it was in the price.

[Doobs]

Tv guy at the Dubai Darts says tge players have had a practise and he's yet to see a 180.
Whitlock says he will throw his Darts a little harder to make sure they go in lol

Think we can call boooom already.  Spread on number of accounts I have left tomorrow?

[Snowball]

Tv guy at the Dubai Darts says tge players have had a practise and he's yet to see a 180.
Whitlock says he will throw his Darts a little harder to make sure they go in lol

Think we can call boooom already.  Spread on number of accounts I have left tomorrow?

Should be, im on all averages low and all matches under except Taylor as that was pretty low anyway.
Whitlock 5-2 up

[Tal]

At the risk of back-patting or setting myself up horribly...

I've just reread my last few posts on this betting lark. Would never have thought a year ago I'd be writing that sort of stuff. Correct of otherwise it reads well. Fred has some explaining to do.  

[tikay]

After last weeks Premier League Darts Final the top 8 Darts Players in the PDC rankings are in Dubai this week for a new Tournament.
Format is best of 21 Legs in each match which is Knockout.

James Wade (3) v Simon Whitlock
 Adrian Lewis (2) v Raymond van Barneveld
 Michael van Gerwen (4) v Wes Newton
 Phil Taylor (1) v Andy Hamilton

Now all these matches have been priced up as if it was played in any of the PLD venues but their is one thing that's lets say slightly different

Click to see full-size image.

Yes, it's outside.
It's going to be about 33 degrees, very humid and also a little breezy.

http://www.windfinder.com/forecast/dubai

Until today we were only getting Live covergae on the Semis and Final but now Eurosport are showing tomorrow nights Quarter Final and thats sprung the bookies into action.

First up we have Wade v Lewis who met in a semi final at the Ally Palace 2 years ago and walked off stage because of a  draft.I have seen Lewis moan about this on at least 2 occasions so it interests me how he will manage playing in 18mph winds?
I have seen somene on Twitter who works with the Broadcast and has been in Dubai since Monday say their will defo be a Breeze on stage.The Temperature and Humidity is also a Bonus.It will feel like 40 degrees.

Below is the matches and weight of each Dart for every Player I could find

James Wade 19g v Simon Whitlock 22g
 Adrian Lewis 21gv Raymond van Barneveld 25g
 Michael van Gerwen 25g v Wes Newton n/a
 Phil Taylor 26g v Andy Hamilton 23g

Now Victor Chandler have priced up match averages and to be honest I see value in all of them but some more than others
Wade under 97.5 @5/6 looks big even before we take into account the Venue as his form has dropped a bit of late but considering he has previous for complaing about drafts and has the lightest Darts then this looks to be the best bet of the Night.
Next best would be Lewis under 95.5 @4/5 I have seen Lewis on more than one occasion complain about slight breezes in Indoor Arenas so lets see how this effects him.

For what it's worth I have singled and doubled Wade and Lewis to go under their average line and done trebles and accas on others.
A four fold is the max you can do as you can't put Players in the same match on the one line.

I dare say going under on Players/Match 180's could be an angle to.

I would also suggest taking Whitlock at 11/10 with Victors as this should be odds on.

Fatastic Snowy, thank you. You've put a lot of research & work into that & ignored gut feel.

The Darts bets you give us (Bazza, too) are excellent, & we so have pushed the boat out a bit here, as you never suggested stakes, so we've speculated a rather monsta £160 in total, across three bets.  I've ignored the dubs, trebs & accas, as per usual. Nit rules & all that.

These are all with BetVictor, & all on the "Dubai Duty Free" jobbie.

Lewis 3 Dart Ave, v Barney, £50 @ 4/5

Wade 3 Dart Ave, v Whitlock, £60 @ 5/6

Whitlock to beat Wade, £50 @ 11/10
ON


22/05/2013 GBP 50.00 Single: UNDER 95.5 @ 4/5

Betid 31842759600 Time: 22:39 Bet Type: Single Stake: £ 50.00

Adrian Lewis v Raymond Van Barneveld Dubai Duty Free Masters 2013 Matches
3-Dart Average - Adrian Lewis

Under 95.5

4/5

 
______


Returns: £0.00 22/05/2013 GBP 60.00 Single: UNDER 97.5 @ 5/6

Betid 31842750500 Time: 22:38 Bet Type: Single Stake: £ 60.00

James Wade v Simon Whitlock Dubai Duty Free Masters 2013 Matches
3-Dart Average - James Wade

Under 97.5
5/6

Win only


___________


Returns: £0.00 22/05/2013 GBP 50.00 Single: SIMON WHITLOCK @ 11/10

Betid 31842740800 Time: 22:37 Bet Type: Single Stake: £ 50.00

James Wade v Simon Whitlock Dubai Duty Free Masters 2013 Matches
Match Betting - Match

Simon Whitlock

11/10
 

Reminder, so I can amuse myself.

[nirvana]

At the risk of back-patting or setting myself up horribly...

I've just reread my last few posts on this betting lark. Would never have thought a year ago I'd be writing that sort of stuff. Correct of otherwise it reads well. Fred has some explaining to do.  

Incred - please remain dressed when reading your posts back

[tikay]

Bugger.

[Dubai]

Why has Fred not got multiples on averages and 180s?? I stressed the importance of this last night- when events are related contingencies and we are able to bet on them in multiples we are burning money ignoring the option

Come on Tikay. Pull that finger out

[TightEnd]

did the average bet win?

[kpnuts]

did the average bet win?

yup. was 90 point something.

[tikay]

Double, treble & acca bugger.