Tips for Tikay

[Snowball]

Can we have £40 on Thornton.to beat Barney at 7/4 with Boyles, 13/8 is ok to.
Thornton is the Holder of this Tournament amd is in good form.Barney has been moaning in every interview so far tho still playing well.
I'd make this more of a 5/4, 11/8 shot

[tikay]

UFC tonight, I don't have time to type up something individually for here so will copy and paste from website but basically I recommend:

£20 Fabricio Werdum to win by decision @ 4/1 bet365
£10 Thiago Silva to win by decision @ 5/1 SkyBet

I realise that TfT can't bet with SkyBet but Ladbrokes go 13/2 UD and 9/1 split/majority decision - does someone know or can work out whether it should still a bet at the 13/2 (splits are less often seen at heavier weights). If it helps a small sample of 2012 suggests that 16% of decisions are split/majority.

The second season of The Ultimate Fighter: Brazil has recently came to an end with the coaches from that season, Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira and Fabricio Werdum meeting in the main event of UFC on Fuel 10 in a heavyweight clash which has important implications for both men.

Nogueira is in the twilight of his career and looks to keep himself relevant and stave off retirement whilst Werdum hasn’t been seen in the cage for a year and needs the win to push himself into the heavyweight title picture.

These two men have fought before, at a Pride FC event in 2006, with Nogueira taking home the decision victory. However this time we see the result being reversed with Werdum taking home the decision victory and this result can be backed at 4/1 with bet365.

Werdum is 1/3 to win outright so 4/1 may look very large for the decision victory but that is because the general consensus sees Nogueira as on his way out and they will also have noticed that Werdum’s striking has improved dramatically but we believe those factors are being weighted too heavily.

Both these men are high-level BJJ black belts and we can’t see this fight hitting the mat too often as neither man is likely to want to risk getting caught in a submission. For that reason, we believe that the majority of this fight will take place standing, or perhaps we might see the odd scramble.

Nogueira has been known for his clean boxing skills for a number of years now but the dramatic improvements we’ve seen in Werdum’s Muay Thai skills over the last couple of years lead me to believe he will use those skills to outstrike “Big Nog” on his way to having his hand raised.

The main negative to the bet is Nogueira’s seemingly weakening punch resistance but it is not enough of a negative to detract from the value of the bet as it is our belief that Werdum’s power may only be effective for the opening two rounds of this five round fight. Both men are likely to tire late on, meaning stoppages are less likely.

One statistic that is interesting is that, according to FightMetric, Nogueira absorbs more strikes than he lands per minute (1.85:2.15) which obviously backs our theory that he will be outstruck (Werdum has a ratio of 2.77:1.85) whilst the 2.15 strike per minute absorbed isn’t too high to have a serious worry about the KO.

Our second free UFC bet for the UFC on Fuel 10 card comes in the co-main event between Thiago Silva and Rafael Cavalcante which has been talked about by most in the media as a striking war between two feared KO artists with one likely to end up being KO’d.

We’re taking a chance that this fight might not be quite as described by the media with the belief that the reputations of the two might lead to a timid fight with both fighters showing some restraint – something that is commonly seen when a fight is discussed in such a way.

We’re suggesting that a chance be taken on Thiago Silva to win this fight on by decision which can be backed at 5/1 with SkyBet as the statistics suggest that if this doesn’t end in a KO he will outstrike Cavalcante on his way to victory.

We were maxed by Bet365 at £2.50 (4/1) on the Werdum bet.

On the Silva bet, we cannot get on with Sky Bet. If someone can decode for me the suggested alternative bet with Ladbrokes, I will get that bet on.

At present, ONLY the Werdum bet is on, and only for £2.50, as we were maxed by them.

I can get that bet on for you if you wish? Slightly more complicated as my B365 account is in euros but we could work it out.
We can settle up via FTP?

Perfect!

Yes please. Settle up tomorrow, either way?

Thanks.

Assumed.......ON

[tikay]

Can we have £40 on Thornton.to beat Barney at 7/4 with Boyles, 13/8 is ok to.
Thornton is the Holder of this Tournament amd is in good form.Barney has been moaning in every interview so far tho still playing well.
I'd make this more of a 5/4, 11/8 shot

ON.

Details to follow.

[TheDazzler]

UFC tonight, I don't have time to type up something individually for here so will copy and paste from website but basically I recommend:

£20 Fabricio Werdum to win by decision @ 4/1 bet365
£10 Thiago Silva to win by decision @ 5/1 SkyBet

I realise that TfT can't bet with SkyBet but Ladbrokes go 13/2 UD and 9/1 split/majority decision - does someone know or can work out whether it should still a bet at the 13/2 (splits are less often seen at heavier weights). If it helps a small sample of 2012 suggests that 16% of decisions are split/majority.

The second season of The Ultimate Fighter: Brazil has recently came to an end with the coaches from that season, Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira and Fabricio Werdum meeting in the main event of UFC on Fuel 10 in a heavyweight clash which has important implications for both men.

Nogueira is in the twilight of his career and looks to keep himself relevant and stave off retirement whilst Werdum hasn’t been seen in the cage for a year and needs the win to push himself into the heavyweight title picture.

These two men have fought before, at a Pride FC event in 2006, with Nogueira taking home the decision victory. However this time we see the result being reversed with Werdum taking home the decision victory and this result can be backed at 4/1 with bet365.

Werdum is 1/3 to win outright so 4/1 may look very large for the decision victory but that is because the general consensus sees Nogueira as on his way out and they will also have noticed that Werdum’s striking has improved dramatically but we believe those factors are being weighted too heavily.

Both these men are high-level BJJ black belts and we can’t see this fight hitting the mat too often as neither man is likely to want to risk getting caught in a submission. For that reason, we believe that the majority of this fight will take place standing, or perhaps we might see the odd scramble.

Nogueira has been known for his clean boxing skills for a number of years now but the dramatic improvements we’ve seen in Werdum’s Muay Thai skills over the last couple of years lead me to believe he will use those skills to outstrike “Big Nog” on his way to having his hand raised.

The main negative to the bet is Nogueira’s seemingly weakening punch resistance but it is not enough of a negative to detract from the value of the bet as it is our belief that Werdum’s power may only be effective for the opening two rounds of this five round fight. Both men are likely to tire late on, meaning stoppages are less likely.

One statistic that is interesting is that, according to FightMetric, Nogueira absorbs more strikes than he lands per minute (1.85:2.15) which obviously backs our theory that he will be outstruck (Werdum has a ratio of 2.77:1.85) whilst the 2.15 strike per minute absorbed isn’t too high to have a serious worry about the KO.

Our second free UFC bet for the UFC on Fuel 10 card comes in the co-main event between Thiago Silva and Rafael Cavalcante which has been talked about by most in the media as a striking war between two feared KO artists with one likely to end up being KO’d.

We’re taking a chance that this fight might not be quite as described by the media with the belief that the reputations of the two might lead to a timid fight with both fighters showing some restraint – something that is commonly seen when a fight is discussed in such a way.

We’re suggesting that a chance be taken on Thiago Silva to win this fight on by decision which can be backed at 5/1 with SkyBet as the statistics suggest that if this doesn’t end in a KO he will outstrike Cavalcante on his way to victory.

We were maxed by Bet365 at £2.50 (4/1) on the Werdum bet.

On the Silva bet, we cannot get on with Sky Bet. If someone can decode for me the suggested alternative bet with Ladbrokes, I will get that bet on.

At present, ONLY the Werdum bet is on, and only for £2.50, as we were maxed by them.

I can get that bet on for you if you wish? Slightly more complicated as my B365 account is in euros but we could work it out.
We can settle up via FTP?

Perfect!

Yes please. Settle up tomorrow, either way?

Thanks.

Assumed.......ON

Done.
23.51 euros = £20 Werdum to win on points @ 4/1

[horseplayer]

another bet tonight at Belmont

http://www.oddschecker.com/horse-racing-betting/americas/belmont-park/20:58/winner

Laugh Out Loud is a viable contender anyway old cliche time but european turf runners are usually better than american ones although this does look a hot field

The angle in is this is looking likely to being run on wet soft turf something none of the us runners have ever faced and rarely do. Laugh out Loud seems fine on any ground, whether she retains enough ability to win this i am not sure but the trainer is pretty shrewd with his american raids.

suggest £10 win Laugh out Loud 11-1 vcbet (maybe bigger in the pools but need to wait until a few minutes before the off and i doubt she will be that much bigger)

[superwomble]

England u21s used to be good 

[Tal]

England u21s used to be good 

Strange as I heard Henderson was playing "really well" at the end of the season.

[Tal]

Fred dodged Di Resta nicely.

 

[kinboshi]

Bugger, was going to suggest a bet on Catalan tonight against Hull FC. Bit late now, and Catalan are cruising.

[Bazzaboy]

Can we have £40 on Thornton.to beat Barney at 7/4 with Boyles, 13/8 is ok to.
Thornton is the Holder of this Tournament amd is in good form.Barney has been moaning in every interview so far tho still playing well.
I'd make this more of a 5/4, 11/8 shot

Are you on Snakebite in the outrights?

Just saw your post on the darts thread. He is playing as well as anyone, draw keeping the big guns apart hasn't helped though.

[tikay]

Our darts bet looked good when we took an early 4-1 lead, but we now trail 8-6, first to 9.

[tikay]

8-7 now.

We just have to win the next two.

Simple. Ish.

[tikay]

Bugger.

Tomorrows report will be a sea of red.

[superwomble]

Tikay - one to check - the lay of Brighton to get promoted. I think you had the same thing happen as I did, where no commission was charged on the winnings. I've just been going though my Betfair account and have seen that two weeks after the bet was settled they charged me commission on the winnings.

In between these two events I also had a 'commission rebate'of 27p about which I know nothing...

Apologies if this has been covered already.

[Snowball]

Can we have £40 on Thornton.to beat Barney at 7/4 with Boyles, 13/8 is ok to.
Thornton is the Holder of this Tournament amd is in good form.Barney has been moaning in every interview so far tho still playing well.
I'd make this more of a 5/4, 11/8 shot

Are you on Snakebite in the outrights?

Just saw your post on the darts thread. He is playing as well as anyone, draw keeping the big guns apart hasn't helped though.

I am mate, missed the 125/1 with Bet365 but on ew at 100/1
If Taylor lost in that match I would have been more confident of a return.
Pretty poor from Thornton to lose from 4-1 up with the throw.