Tips for Tikay

[horseplayer]

Paddy Power refunding stakes on the 15.15.  Mount Athos is a best priced 4/1 with them, so we should put the max on, or £25 if feeling nitty.

Its a total conundrum to me. My fav horse in training atm, and I have had my biggest single bet this year, on him last night, but everyone I listen to tells me what I already know, the main target is Melbourne Cup. Does that mean if he is in with a shout Spencer wont flog him...I cant see it. At this level if you have the horse and the prize in sight surely you go for it, and to me he is potentially the best stayer we have by some way. Do trainers really send horses out this quality to the races half cooked when they are top class?

Either way the money is down, nerves are jangling and the nails are getting shorter.....best feeling going!

A cracking animal

I still remember it getting beat of 64 on handicap debut for good old John Hills an expensive memory

good luck today

[TightEnd]

Warner plays (good) and bats 6 (not so good)

Bird does not play

Lyon plays for Agar


...and Australia win a toss.

[superwomble]

I’m usually loathe to bet on or tip my own team, but the handicap market for League Two appears to be underestimating us, or overestimating how far ahead other teams will be, or both.

SkyBet have Wimbledon +26 at 20/1.

WillHill have us +27 at 18/1.

Both e/w terms are ¼ odds for top 4.

Last season we were awful and only just survived. However, after replacing Terry Brown with Neal Ardley, our second half of the season saw us with near play-off form.

We finished on 53 points, 30 behind the champions and 23 behind 4th place.

Both have Burton +16. We finished 17 points behind them last season.

I’m not being stupidly optimistic about our chances this season but I think we’ll definitely be higher than last year. We have a good young manager who is implementing professional change at the club, which has been too non-league in the league so far. We have brought in experienced players as well as some exciting younger ones.

I think it will be tight with the handicaps given but I think they are too big. What do you reckon?

[tikay]

Was going to post this before the game vs. Sussex, but waited until afterwards.

Jackson Bird Top Aussie wicket taker @ 50/1 - http://www.oddschecker.com/cricket/ashes/top-australia-bowler

Wickets so far:
Siddle - 11
Pattinson - 7
Harris - 7
Starc - 5
Smith - 4
Agar - 2
Watson - 1

50/1 for a reason as he's not guaranteed to get a game, but I believe that price is a bit too long.

If Jackson Bird is picked for the 3rd test then he will almost certainly take the new ball as he did in the tour game and his first couple of tests, and it'll probably be Starc who will miss out - Surely Harris plays as Australia must win, and there's been no talk of him being rested for the next game. Think there's a good chance Harris doesn't take any further part in the series if Australia lose, and if they win do they drop Bird? Probably not. Bird almost certainly plays the remainder of the series if he gets picked for this test, barring injury.

Peter Siddle has 11 wickets already, but Bird will have the advantages of:

- Being virtually unknown in Test Cricket, and to the England batsmen (See the impact Philander had when he started playing Test Cricket)
- Taking the new ball, whereas Siddle will remain first change.
- Better FC strike rate (Probably bowls a couple of overs less than Siddle in a day though)
- Possibility of Siddle being rested if Australia are 3-0, 3-1 or 4-0 down? Maybe not as I can't remember Siddle being rested before, but there's no chance Bird comes in then gets rested.

To be top Aussie wicket taker, I think Bird needs to take around 20 wickets in the series, maybe a couple more if the Aussie spinners continue being useless. Certainly possible if he plays the remaining 3 tests, picks up one or two 5-fers in that time, and picks up a few wickets in the other innings. Was really impressed by him when he played his first two tests against Sri Lanka. It's between Starc and Bird to replace Pattinson, and the 50/1 being offered by some bookmakers atm is a little bit too long to ignore. Think it's worth a couple of quid.

Morning Andy.

Would like to have got this on, your first Fredder, & a nice little Banzai, but I gather Mr Bird had had his wings clipped, & will not be gracing us with his presence today, therefore we cannot make the bet.

Shame really, you put a lot of work into the Recommend.

Keep them coming, we'll get there.

[horseplayer]

paddy power offering money back on in running player run markets if said player is out lbw

Must add some value of some kind to Watson?

[horseplayer]

Hunt Ball (bugger the cows) makes his first start in America tonight at Saratoga in the 6.35.

No prices yet but the morning line 4/1 looks very attractive when you consider much lesser rated animals have gone over to America before and won similar contests.

I very much doubt the 4/1 will materialise, if it does i will suggest a bet at anything bigger than 3/1 with slight doubt about running on very fast ground for the first time ever. Ex Rebecca Curtis trained Meganisi also runs for the first time in America.


http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0xbI3xXsroE

edit :

Turns out Hills have gone 4/1 Hunt Ball as i speak...

Now i am not going to pretend i am an expert on Us Jumps form but a few people that are have commented on twitter they think he should be at worst joint favourite

I suggest £20 win at 4/1 for now and we will see how the tote develops nearer the race time.

[Dubai]

I guess take overs as he more likely to be lbw early on. If he survives 20 overs etc you probably nearly won bet anyway. But yeah he has around a 1 in 3 lbw dismissal rate and I'd guess the earlier in the innings the higher that gets. So bet over his runs soon as its in play must be the play

[tikay]

Warner plays (good) and bats 6 (not so good)

Bird does not play

Lyon plays for Agar


...and Australia win a toss.

Thanks Rich.

As we are at the start of the Month, the Spready is relatively uncluttered right now, so I was able to summarise our Ashes bets as follows. (clever me).....correct me if I am wrong, please. I'm really not sure how we stand with them, except I know we lead 2-0, which is required for our 5-0 Whitewash affair.


England to win the Series 5-0. £25 @ 5.4.

David Warner, Top Series Aussie Batter. £30 EW @ 25/1. (1/5, 1, 2, 3).

Graham Swann, Top Series Wicket Taker, £24 @ 11/2. (FREE BET)

Michael Clarke, Top Aussie Batter, £50 @ 5/2.

[tikay]

Hunt Ball (bugger the cows) makes his first start in America tonight at Saratoga in the 6.35.

No prices yet but the morning line 4/1 looks very attractive when you consider much lesser rated animals have gone over to America before and won similar contests.

I very much doubt the 4/1 will materialise, if it does i will suggest a bet at anything bigger than 3/1 with slight doubt about running on very fast ground for the first time ever. Ex Rebecca Curtis trained Meganisi also runs for the first time in America.


http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0xbI3xXsroE

Thanks John.

If & when prices are available, can you post a link to the Oddschecker page, please?

 

[tikay]

Note I cannot place ANY bets between 6pm & Midnight this evening, as I am working.

[TightEnd]

Warner plays (good) and bats 6 (not so good)

Bird does not play

Lyon plays for Agar


...and Australia win a toss.

Thanks Rich.

As we are at the start of the Month, the Spready is relatively uncluttered right now, so I was able to summarise our Ashes bets as follows. (clever me).....correct me if I am wrong, please. I'm really not sure how we stand with them, except I know we lead 2-0, which is required for our 5-0 Whitewash affair.


England to win the Series 5-0. £25 @ 5.4.

David Warner, Top Series Aussie Batter. £30 EW @ 25/1. (1/5, 1, 2, 3).

Graham Swann, Top Series Wicket Taker, £24 @ 11/2. (FREE BET)

Michael Clarke, Top Aussie Batter, £50 @ 5/2.

Swann is joint top wicket taker with Anderson, 13 each. Siddle has 11

Clarke has 102, behind Watson 112 and Agar 130. Agar now dropped. Clarke is due.

All looks ok.

5-0 depends on this being a good toss to lose really. I suspect it might be

[TightEnd]

Ian Botham @beefybotham

Don't mind England losing the toss on this pitch....it's hard and expect it to go through...early wickets !!



(so we'll see). Should be Anderson country

[horseplayer]

http://www.oddschecker.com/horse-racing-betting/americas/saratoga/18:35/winner

There you go Tikay lets just leave it at £20 with hills at 4/1 for now

If for some reason another firm goes bigger before 6pm (i doubt any others will price up or take a view) i will have a further think

[tikay]

I guess take overs as he more likely to be lbw early on. If he survives 20 overs etc you probably nearly won bet anyway. But yeah he has around a 1 in 3 lbw dismissal rate and I'd guess the earlier in the innings the higher that gets. So bet over his runs soon as its in play must be the play

Thanks Dave, & horsey.

Not sure I grasp all that, but once the In-Play markets go up, I'll try & decipher it & get on.

[tikay]

http://www.oddschecker.com/horse-racing-betting/americas/saratoga/18:35/winner

There you go Tikay lets just leave it at £20 with hills at 4/1 for now

If for some reason another firm goes bigger before 6pm (i doubt any others will price up or take a view) i will have a further think

Done, thank you.


Is "6.35" American 6.35, or proper 6.35?

We have £20 @ 4/1, Wm Hill, HUNT BALL, 6.35 Saratoga.

ON

01 Aug 2013 - 6:35 Saratoga - Win

Best Odds Guaranteed!

Hunt Ball @ 4/1

Stake : £20.00


Estimated Returns : £

100.00



Transaction Reference:

O/0457483/0000493/F