Tips for Tikay

[edgascoigne]

Tal's Ice Cream Question of the Day

Bobby1 recommends backing Brees each way at a quarter at 3/1. This means, if he finishes second, say, we get 3/4. But this means we lose money on the bet, because of our lost win bet.

I've seen this a few times in Fred, particularly with horse tips, where a place loses money overall.

Can't we just back place only?

If I can attempt to answer my own question, I take it we are treating the win and the place as separate bets, where each is a value price. By this reasoning, the bet on the win is of itself a value bet, so not doing it is missing out on EV return. I appreciate some bookies might not offer place only, too.

As a punter, I want to be happy when I win a bet, else I'll just spend the money on shoes. Here, I might win but be worse off, which puts me off mentally; it just feels illogical intrinsically, if that makes sense.

I suspect I understand the rationale, but I'm not sure it's ever been explained ITT.

Often, unsure if this is the case in the NFL bets as bobby1 seems to think the win parts rep value in their own right, the overall +EV of a bet comes specifically from the place part.

'Bad Each-Way races' are the perfect example.

In an 8-runner (1/5 the odds) race they bet 1/2, 7/2, 6/1, 25s bar.

The 7/2 and 6/1 shots will almost certainly be tighter with the books than on the exchange, which if punting blind we take as our 'most true' indicator of price. The win part is -EV therefore but given we take 1.7 the place and 2.2 the place where often the prices on the machine will be more like 1.4 and 1.8 the +EV of the place part of the bet irons out the win part negative expectation and more, making the bet +EV overall.

The 7/2 shot will almost certainly be a great e/w bet (assuming the disparity in the win price Vs the machine is not sufficiently great to overcome the place price inefficiency), irrespective of the fact that if it places (but fails to win), which is the most common outcome encountered, we lose money in the short term. The 6/1 shot e/w returns a +ve result financially when placing, though that has no bearing on its EV as compared with the 7/2 shot e/w.

Your shoes can wait

[Tal]

Thanks, Ed. That's fab.



I'll be punting with no shooooees...

[DungBeetle]

On face value I am struggling to see why Norwich are underdogs at home to Southampton? 

[horseplayer]

Eto'o 8 yrs ago b4 Chelsea-Barcelona return leg:"Chelsea is a pathetic club,I would prefer sell peanuts in my village than playing for them"

[tikay]

Eto'o 8 yrs ago b4 Chelsea-Barcelona return leg:"Chelsea is a pathetic club,I would prefer sell peanuts in my village than playing for them"

Seems not to be the brightest chap. Bet he kisses his Chelsea badge if he happens to score.

It does not make him a wrong 'un as such. Some people just have an inbuilt negativity to so many people & things. Life must be very uphill for them when they spend all day sneering & mocking. Rather sad, really. 

[tikay]

On face value I am struggling to see why Norwich are underdogs at home to Southampton? 

On the face of it, extraordinary. You can get nearly 2/1 for Norwich, who are at home. To Southampton.

http://www.oddschecker.com/football/english/premier-league/norwich-v-southampton/winner

It is games like this where I struggle to comprehend the whole "value" equation.

We have learned, & been told often enough, what do we know that the bookies don't?

In this case? Nothing but our judgement. And yet no prices are OOL with others by much, so every bookie agrees. We know that many Bookies actually "buy" their tissues from organisations who exist just for that purpose. Get the prices wrong too often & the wheels fall off.

And why is the price still there, after several days when nothing material has changed? Why have the syndicates & Pros not moved in?

The mysteries of punting.

Anyway, not sure what other experts think as to Fred getting on, but I've had a little bet myself thanks to you flagging it up.

[TightEnd]

because Norwich drew 2-2 at home in a very open game and then lost at Hull, against ten men

Meanwhile Southampton win 1-0 away, then drew 1-1 at home and looked rock solid both games

Under Pochettino they've turned into one of the most miserly defences around and midfielders Schneiderlin and Lallana re very under-rated in front of that back four. Schneiderlin especially. We know that in Lambert, Rodriguez and now Osvaldo they can nick a goal in close games

Equally we know that Norwich have thrown £20m at attacking resources, and this is at odds with the style last season which was quite defensive at home, lots of draws. If the change of appraoch works, fine, but if not they'll be more exposed at the back than they were last season

I didn't see 2-1 Norwich as being too far off the mark personally.

[DungBeetle]

Tikay - I think the bookies are expecting punters to latch onto Saints after their pre-season signings and pricing accordingly.  But they seem to have gone too far on this one - Norwich have made some good signings as well.  But you are correct - why has it not been siezed on by the pro money?  Maybe I am wrong.

I think draw is probably most likely outcome, but a Norwich (draw no bet) price of above evens still seems decent to me given their good home form last year.  I've put a personal trade on - I will leave it to thread as to whether we want to add this to our weekend stuff.

[claypole]

Saints are probably a little overrated by the market; reaction to first two games and the Osvaldo signing - couple with Norwich's inability to get an equaliser against a 10 man Hull team last week and looking inept as an attacking force.

I'd rather back Norwich at than Palace at 8/5....so I do think the reaction is a little too much and they're probably nearer 7/4 - 15/8.  However I think there a re better spots on this weeks coupon. 

I really think we should be betting Sunderland at 2/1 away - they haven't played badly in first two games considering number of new players and got to think they get better with games together and tbh I think I'd be back blind anyone at Selhurst park at plus

[tikay]

There we have it - Tighty thinks it correct, or nearly so, you don't. Two of the folks here who probably understand football, & football betting, better than almost anyone, disagree.

Whilst I have your attention...... we have discussed many times the (mis) pricing of Liverpol in individual games, for various reasons.

Do you think this will continue? I know it is early doors, but I discern no sea-change in Liverpool's quality this Season, they remain, to my untrained eyes, a mid-table outfit.  Value may await?

And what are your latest views on Watford?

[tikay]

Saints are probably a little overrated by the market; reaction to first two games and the Osvaldo signing - couple with Norwich's inability to get an equaliser against a 10 man Hull team last week and looking inept as an attacking force.

I'd rather back Norwich at than Palace at 8/5....so I do think the reaction is a little too much and they're probably nearer 7/4 - 15/8.  However I think there a re better spots on this weeks coupon. 

I really think we should be betting Sunderland at 2/1 away - they haven't played badly in first two games considering number of new players and got to think they get better with games together and tbh I think I'd be back blind anyone at Selhurst park at plus

Ahh, now that is a different thing altogether.

I think we can get against Palace almost every game this season, almost blind, & turn a profit.

2/1 to beat them? Yes please.

Not sure it is a Fred bet, but my gut tells me it is a no-brainer to get against them repeatedly this season. On such gut instincts, many a punter has gone busto....

[Marky147]

Southampton are Trigg's NAP for the weekend football!

[tikay]

Southampton are Trigg's NAP for the weekend football!

On the Podcast?

I've not listened to the latest one yet.

For some reason, setting aside half an hour to listen to anything is a bit of a trial for me. If it were in a written version, I'd not miss a word, trust me.

[JaffaCake]

Norwich look too big at 2/1 to me, over reaction to first two games imo. Be surprised if they kick-off at 2/1

[TightEnd]

I think there probably is evidence that Liverpool will be better this season, certainly not mid table, far closer to top six than that

The "Liverpool are over-bet" and therefore too short (largely on possession and shots on target stats) occurrence had really played out by April I think

I rate Mignolet better than Reina, who I think was beginning to fall away from his peak (not a consensus view)

Toure is a solid signing

Henderson improving all the time, Lucas fully fit again. Lucas in particular is a big part of the defensive unit in front of the back four

Gerrard is sitting more, probably more appropriate at this stage of his career than expecting him to be the main attacking striker, link man to one up top

Sturridge is fit, Suarez to come back as long as he's at the club on Tuesday

Coutinho a top player

Strength in depth around the place too


Think we are way past the "oppose Liverpool, they are much worse than everyone bets them to be" of last season