Tips for Tikay

[DungBeetle]

Makes sense.  I guess it comes down to whether thread is viewed as a generally theoretical exercise against the bookies or whether it is about making as much money as possible.  Obviously I'm not doubting Tighty's excellent analysis for a moment.

[TightEnd]

I'd be a little cautious on saying that because someone knows a lot about cricket, it necessarily translates into the need to be bigger

Cricket is break-even on here over £5k invested and 170 bets or so from maybe 10 people. I reckon those 10 people's knowledge dwarf's some of the odds-setters but its not as simple as that because of the number of variables involved

For the short form, its a randomising format. 20 over T20 is in poker terms a super-hyper turbo SNG. There is a lot of luck involved

For the long form, what you think applies at the start in terms of pitch and overhead conditions can be very different 48 hours later

For a lot of the longer games, the toss is crucial, so ante-post can be difficult


Finding theoretical edges is quite easy in cricket, but in practice I don't think it is that lucrative a betting sport

[tikay]

I find this Hills offer really odd.  I just popped in again and they are repeating it at Chester.

The obvious 2 to back are  Bow Creek in the 2.00 pm at 10/11 and Nezar in the 4.05 at 8/13.  The latter is 15 pound clear on handicap, and the added value is too good to miss, so I think we can ignore the preference for the low draw here.  So £25 each on Hills mobile.

You could take the free bet on Adam Scott now.  He is best 12/1 with them currently.

AFTERTIMING ALERT

I placed all these, INCLUDING the 2pm jobbie, but got diverted by some phone calls & stuff.

Won or lose, we WERE on the 2pm.

BetSlips shortly.

[Doobs]

I find this Hills offer really odd.  I just popped in again and they are repeating it at Chester.

The obvious 2 to back are  Bow Creek in the 2.00 pm at 10/11 and Nezar in the 4.05 at 8/13.  The latter is 15 pound clear on handicap, and the added value is too good to miss, so I think we can ignore the preference for the low draw here.  So £25 each on Hills mobile.

You could take the free bet on Adam Scott now.  He is best 12/1 with them currently.

AFTERTIMING ALERT

I placed all these, INCLUDING the 2pm jobbie, but got diverted by some phone calls & stuff.

Won or lose, we WERE on the 2pm.

BetSlips shortly.

Phew. 

[tikay]

I find this Hills offer really odd.  I just popped in again and they are repeating it at Chester.

The obvious 2 to back are  Bow Creek in the 2.00 pm at 10/11 and Nezar in the 4.05 at 8/13.  The latter is 15 pound clear on handicap, and the added value is too good to miss, so I think we can ignore the preference for the low draw here.  So £25 each on Hills mobile.

You could take the free bet on Adam Scott now.  He is best 12/1 with them currently.

The two Wm Hill Mobile Offer bets are below.

MONEY BACK IF 2nd to Favourite.

2pm, £25 @ Evens (Guaranteed price) Bow Creek, 2pm Chester.

4.05pm, £25 @ 8/13, (Guaranteed Price), Nezar, 4.05pm Chester.

ON

30 Aug 13 / 13:53

Stake

4:05 Chester – Nezar @ Guaranteed Price (8/13)

- £25.00

O/0457483/0000571/F



30 Aug 13 / 13:52

Stake

2:00 Chester – Bow Creek @ Guaranteed Price (EVS)

- £25.00

O/0457483/0000570/F

[tikay]

In fact, here is the settlement slip from the 2pm.

I do love these.


30 Aug 13 / 14:04

Bet Winnings

2:00 Chester – Bow Creek @ Guaranteed Price (EVS)

+ £50.00

O/0457483/0000570/F

[Doobs]

I find this Hills offer really odd.  I just popped in again and they are repeating it at Chester.

The obvious 2 to back are  Bow Creek in the 2.00 pm at 10/11 and Nezar in the 4.05 at 8/13.  The latter is 15 pound clear on handicap, and the added value is too good to miss, so I think we can ignore the preference for the low draw here.  So £25 each on Hills mobile.

You could take the free bet on Adam Scott now.  He is best 12/1 with them currently.

AFTERTIMING ALERT

I placed all these, INCLUDING the 2pm jobbie, but got diverted by some phone calls & stuff.

Won or lose, we WERE on the 2pm.

BetSlips shortly.

Phew. 

Ofc Adam Scott has dropped one already, but will take that win as compensation.  

[Tal]

Are we now only backing one horse per race?

Seems a high variance strategy to me...

[tikay]

I find this Hills offer really odd.  I just popped in again and they are repeating it at Chester.

The obvious 2 to back are  Bow Creek in the 2.00 pm at 10/11 and Nezar in the 4.05 at 8/13.  The latter is 15 pound clear on handicap, and the added value is too good to miss, so I think we can ignore the preference for the low draw here.  So £25 each on Hills mobile.

You could take the free bet on Adam Scott now.  He is best 12/1 with them currently.

We got on Adam Scott, but he is now 14/1, which was what we got.

I then had a look at the Leaderboard, & it seems he bogey'd the first. Marv. Still, 71 holes left.

FREE BET, with Wm Hil, Adam Scott, £25 (FREE) Adam Scott @ 14/1, Deutsche Bank Golf.

ON


30 Aug 13 / 13:54

Stake

Deutsche Bank Championship - Tournament Winner Live – Adam Scott @ 14/1

£0.00

O/0457483/0000572/F

[tikay]

I find this Hills offer really odd.  I just popped in again and they are repeating it at Chester.

The obvious 2 to back are  Bow Creek in the 2.00 pm at 10/11 and Nezar in the 4.05 at 8/13.  The latter is 15 pound clear on handicap, and the added value is too good to miss, so I think we can ignore the preference for the low draw here.  So £25 each on Hills mobile.

You could take the free bet on Adam Scott now.  He is best 12/1 with them currently.

AFTERTIMING ALERT

I placed all these, INCLUDING the 2pm jobbie, but got diverted by some phone calls & stuff.

Won or lose, we WERE on the 2pm.

BetSlips shortly.

Phew. 

Ofc Adam Scott has dropped one already, but will take that win as compensation.  

AND we got 14/1, not 12/1.

[Nico29]

Norwich will be fighting relegation this season, Saints should be mid-table+ comfortably.

One squad looks very strong, the other doesn't.

Personally think the prices are fine.

U state this like it's fact Dom. It isn't. I don't think Norwich are in any danger of going down or Southampton are in any danger of finishing above mid-table. Wanna have a bet, I'll take Norwich to stay up and Southampton to finish bottom half, if either doesn't happen it's a push, if both don't happen u win

It's all about opinions, I state it to be true, you don't.

I believe that the prices back up my somewhat vague point over where the sides should finish respectively.

Norwich are a general 3-1 shot to go down and certainly the bookies certainly seem to agree that they will struggle.

Southampton are an even money shot to be top ten+, while they are an 18-1 shot to go down.


In regards to your bet offer,

Norwich stay up, Saints outside top ten=you win.

Norwich go down, Saints outside top ten+Norwich stay up, Saints in top ten=push,

Norwich go down, Saints in top ten-I win.


I'd be mad to give you even money when effectively Norwich are a 1-3 shot to stay up and Southampton are evens not to finish top half, thus your bet effectively is an 11-8 shot*.

However, Norwich@3-1 and Saints@evens is a 7-1* punt and would be much the worst of it here.


Still would be happy to bet both as singles with you, even though as I stated originally I believe Norwich will be fighting relegation, not ness be relegated.

Thus, out of the 2 bets I much prefer Southampton to be top ten.

Say £100 Southampton to finish top ten, and Norwich to go down £50@3-1.

Up to you mate, let us know.


*Yep I know these bets are related and we could not do them as pure doubles.

[tikay]

Are we now only backing one horse per race?

Seems a high variance strategy to me...

Shush you. They have all forgotten about that faux paus yesterday.

[Doobs]

Are we now only backing one horse per race?

Seems a high variance strategy to me...

Shush you. They have all forgotten about that faux paus yesterday.

<3 Tal

[TightEnd]

Nezar came in at 8/13, 2 for 2 this pm +£40

[Simon Galloway]

I do love these.

Not 'alf.