Tips for Tikay

[tikay]

Paddy Power, 6/1 Amenable, 3.10 Southwell tomorrow. Much better handicapped on the AW and has won at Southwell. Should be favourite.

1) Missed the 6/1, took 5.

2) Clicked EW by mistake. Not my fault, no sir.

3) Genuine tiddlearse due to Restriction.

BET PLACED

Just noticed, Amenable finished 2nd, & returned 6/1.

I had taken 5/1, not 6/1. Bad.

I had placed it EW, when it was supposed to be WIN. Good. 

A 20% Rule 4 applied. Bad.

I got paid £8.58 by Paddy Power - EXACTLY the total amount staked. Well done. Ish. 

The winning bet statement is below.


Bet receipt number : O/23146337/0000387



Horse Racing



SOUTHWELL



15:10 HANDICAP (0-65) 6f



19th of Nov 2013 3:10 pm



Win or E/W



1/4 places 1,2,3



Amenable @ 5/1



Rule 4 : 20%
 Rule 4 Details:
 2013-11-17 10:00:00 - 2013-11-19 07:41:36 : 20%

Place

Stake and Return Details



Bet placed at

18th of Nov 2013 5:48 pm

Total Stake

£8.58

Single (Each-Way)

Number of lines

2

Total stake due

£8.58



Stake per line

£4.29

Freebets Redeemed

£0.00



Total amount paid

£8.58


Returns

£8.58


Total Returns

£8.58

[tikay]

That lovely fella paddy power is doubling odds if u back the top run scorer in an innings in the first ashes test. Both teams are odds on on bf to score a century in the first innings so if u cop it's likely to have been a century. Bit of search shows feed faves bailey and bell, and kp are all top price wi paddy, , 9/2 n 4/1. I've backed bailey n kp, it's 50 max.

Can't believe the pot I missed out on while typing this lol, ace hi shoves flop n gets called by king hi, woulda called n flopped trips otb if not typing ffs.

Reccy 25 on each (choose bell or kp wi bailey? U have a position on bell centuries already)Or a quid if you're tiddlearsing

Thanks Jeff.

This may be useful for others, but I'm pretty sure Fred is disqualified from Paddy Power Offers. Will try & find out.  At best, on thin markets like this, they rarely allow me more than a quid or two. I can only get a decent bet on with them in heavily traded markets - NFL Outrights, Premier League football etc.

There had been an earlier suggestion on George Bailey, but I think it was suggested he won't have much opportunity to score big.

[Tal]

Your Paddy Power whiff-waff reminded me of this:

[horseplayer]

Ladbrokes have opened up again at 2/1 Ronaldo this morning

looks like £25 max but still well worth taking

[tikay]

Ladbrokes have opened up again at 2/1 Ronaldo this morning

looks like £25 max but still well worth taking

I don't think so John, it is not there, "THIS EVENT IS NO LONGER LISTED" or somesuch when I get to the Ladbrokes page.

http://www.oddschecker.com/football/football-specials/ballon-dor/player-of-the-year

Judging by those prices, they'd not honour the bet anyway, it would be deemed a palp.

Shame I missed it last nigght, but I did try VC, Lads & Corals, all to no avail.

What a spot it was @ 2/1!

[horseplayer]

Ladbrokes have opened up again at 2/1 Ronaldo this morning

looks like £25 max but still well worth taking

I don't think so John, it is not there, "THIS EVENT IS NO LONGER LISTED" or somesuch when I get to the Ladbrokes page.

http://www.oddschecker.com/football/football-specials/ballon-dor/player-of-the-year

Judging by those prices, they'd not honour the bet anyway, it would be deemed a palp.

Shame I missed it last nigght, but I did try VC, Lads & Corals, all to no avail.

What a spot it was @ 2/1!

just backed it with them for a tenner through the oddschecker link

[horseplayer]

ah ignore that see they have now updated oddschecker

[tikay]

Ladbrokes have opened up again at 2/1 Ronaldo this morning

looks like £25 max but still well worth taking

I don't think so John, it is not there, "THIS EVENT IS NO LONGER LISTED" or somesuch when I get to the Ladbrokes page.

http://www.oddschecker.com/football/football-specials/ballon-dor/player-of-the-year

Judging by those prices, they'd not honour the bet anyway, it would be deemed a palp.

Shame I missed it last nigght, but I did try VC, Lads & Corals, all to no avail.

What a spot it was @ 2/1!

just backed it with them for a tenner through the oddschecker link

They must have removed it immediately after that - it is not even listed by Ladbrokes on Oddschecker now, & everyone else is 2/5 or whatever......

http://www.oddschecker.com/football/football-specials/ballon-dor/player-of-the-year

I do hope they honour your bet, but I think it unlikely.

[horseplayer]

i was to busy typing it up for thread i did not get on myself last night!

Not for the first time

note to self back first before putting on thread

[tikay]

That lovely fella paddy power is doubling odds if u back the top run scorer in an innings in the first ashes test. Both teams are odds on on bf to score a century in the first innings so if u cop it's likely to have been a century. Bit of search shows feed faves bailey and bell, and kp are all top price wi paddy, , 9/2 n 4/1. I've backed bailey n kp, it's 50 max.

Can't believe the pot I missed out on while typing this lol, ace hi shoves flop n gets called by king hi, woulda called n flopped trips otb if not typing ffs.

Reccy 25 on each (choose bell or kp wi bailey? U have a position on bell centuries already)Or a quid if you're tiddlearsing

Missed this previously.

Glad I'm not the only one who struggles to work Fred whilst multi-table pokering, it does my head in. You've never seen such poker misclicks.....

[tikay]

Hi Tony,

The Atletico Madrid to win the CL has now gone out to 20-1 with Betfair, I do know you was waiting to press the button, think this could be a decent time. However not 100% sure how Betfair works with regards to % of profit or if you can trade a bet you have already bet to win. I still however think 18-1 with Corals is definitely backable, as there isn't that much left of even 16's at the moment.

Can Aaron, or someone, remind me what this was about, please?

The 18/1 (Corals) remains available.

http://www.oddschecker.com/football/champions-league/winner

Afternoon Tony,

This was my original post....

Thoughts on this for Fred please.

Athletico Madrid are best priced 17-1 to win the Champions League.

They do look a very decent team and have already won their weak group winning 4 out of 4.

They seem to me like they have some very decent players & although they are nowhere near the best team in the league, I still think they can progress to at least the quaters looking how things are.

They have the inability to be drawn against either of the Spanish teams in the next round, whilst it looks certain they can not be drawn with Bayern either & the likelyhood is that Chelsea, Arsenal & Man United will win their groups. It would see them likely to face a weak team in the last 16 & I am sure that if they progress, they can still put up a game against any of the bigger teams, I would probably have them over any English team.

Not looking it as a win bet, but with possibility to lay it off later? Cheers

It got a decent reaction even Redarmi liked it , said it looks a decent bet to lay later.

I would be very happy with 18's, but Betfair have 20's and I think that is very good and I think if possible the button should be pressed now whilst that is around. I do not use Betfair that much (if at all), but I am pretty sure 20-1, even after the tax, beats 18's with Corals and SkyBet.

In the next round they are likely to play a team that they are better than (barring Man C and maybe the German teams).  After that they are likely to play teams that are better than them.  After that the same applies.  So we have 4 games to play, one where we are likely favourites, 3 where we are likely the dog.  Am I underestimating them, or does that seem solid logic?

18/1 or 20/1 doesn't look like massive value.  You'd have to be pretty optimistic about the draw to make them much shorter. 

More for Aaron, than Doobs, but just returning to this again.

Presumably, we could roughly estimate what price they would be in each of those 4 games, & that would establish whether 18/1 repped value.

I know they are a "handy" Team, but I'm still struggling to see why 18/1 is particular value. Betfair are 20/1. 

[rfgqqabc]

Betvictor have an offer on KP that looks well worth taking. Double the odds if he wins, and they will payout at standard odds if he scores a 100 but fails to win. £100 max, more than I could get on 3 batsmen with Paddy. Could even lay some off with betfair if their isn't too big of a price discrepancy.

[DungBeetle]

"Nobody is risking their career for a weeks wages.......I wouldn't do that and I don't earn 50k a week.......so realistically we are looking at £400-500k to the players"

If someone is on a £50k a week 5 year contract they are guaranteed to bank £13 million by the end of it.  Why would they fix a game for £500k and risk having their contract terminated and their career finished?  I'd say the Premier League is close to uncorruptable.

[horseplayer]

beggars the question why somebody like JT has remortgaged his property 6 times in the last decade....

[tikay]

Betvictor have an offer on KP that looks well worth taking. Double the odds if he wins, and they will payout at standard odds if he scores a 100 but fails to win. £100 max, more than I could get on 3 batsmen with Paddy. Could even lay some off with betfair if their isn't too big of a price discrepancy.

Thanks.

The full offer, with T & C's, is.....


Special 1 - Place a Top Batsman bet on Kevin Pietersen and we’ll double your odds! *
 
 
 
Special 2 - Place a Top Batsman bet on Kevin Pietersen and if he scores a century but is not Top Batsman we’ll pay you out as a winner!**

The maximum total stake is £/€100 (or currency equivalent) per person or household.
2. Double your odds will reflect as manual adjustment in qualifying accounts once the result is known and the market has been settled.
3. Qualifying Market is 1st Innings Top Batsman only.
4. This is a stand alone offer, and cannot be combined with any other Kevin Pietersen 100th Test Special.
 5. The qualifying match is Australia v England which is being played on Wednesday 20th – Sunday 24th November 2013.
 6. Offer applies to Pre-Event bets only; bets placed on the 'Live' section of the website do not qualify. (Bets will only qualify prior to the 1st ball bowled in the 1st test.)
 7. Single bets only, multiple bets do not qualify.