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Author Topic: Tips for Tikay  (Read 16575543 times)
superwomble
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« Reply #59730 on: November 20, 2013, 11:16:50 AM »

Daily Report

Profit on Month £365.29

Outstanding Bets £3047.51

Free bets to use Two, William Hill, first by Sat 23rd Nov

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0Aia1Hxq-NDNWdFk3UmlTSXMzTjRBTVNfOWRndVFsZHc&usp=drive_web#gid=32

Two completed bets yesterday and a loss of £10. Amenable broke even and Rooney did not score first at Wembley. Quite difficult to score first, especially against a "suspect" defence we were told, if your team doesn't have a shot on target

Flicking between the Wembley game and the Zlatan/Ronaldo game was like alternating between a BBC4 documentary on the habitat of Indonesian Badgers and the latest Hollywood blockbuster. In the end I flicked no more, the badgers simply were not at the races

Tonight I think we have the Greyhound eclipse final where a result would be handy to arrest a minor downswing, and the start of the Ashes in Brisbane

 



What do you mean, 'no shots on target'?! What about Townsend's shot that hit the post? I rest my case. </ Hodgson>
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tikay
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« Reply #59731 on: November 20, 2013, 11:17:04 AM »

Golf Banzai!

Lads are 50-1 Miguel Jimenez 1st round leader -  5 places each way, in the world cup of golf.  Mig has been Ist round leader twice this year (once outright and once triple joint) and joint 4th.  These in full field events.

So must be worth £5ew!

Ha!

Seen far worse 50/1ers than that.

Let the day-dreaming commence.

BET PLACED

Surely worth a tenner e/w, which is your max?  

I would do more, but they limitted me to £1 e/w.

Ha!

You got me.

We took another £5 EW, & so doubled up DoubleUp's suggestion. The Max (for me) was £10 EW.

ANOTHER BET PLACED
« Last Edit: November 20, 2013, 11:19:21 AM by tikay » Logged

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« Reply #59732 on: November 20, 2013, 12:15:54 PM »

http://www.oddschecker.com/football/germany/bundesliga/dortmund-v-bayern-munich/winner

suggest £50 bayern with boyles or hills at 13/10

After last night Dortmund now without full first choice back four expect the Bayern price to come a bit further before kick off

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« Reply #59733 on: November 20, 2013, 12:18:15 PM »

http://www.oddschecker.com/football/champions-league/dortmund-v-napoli/winner

On the above Napoli also look at worst tradeable at 5/1
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tikay
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« Reply #59734 on: November 20, 2013, 01:07:49 PM »

http://www.oddschecker.com/football/germany/bundesliga/dortmund-v-bayern-munich/winner

suggest £50 bayern with boyles or hills at 13/10

After last night Dortmund now without full first choice back four expect the Bayern price to come a bit further before kick off



Just missed 13/10, 5/4 best available, but I took £40 @ 5/4.

BET PLACED
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tikay
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« Reply #59735 on: November 20, 2013, 01:54:18 PM »


The Ashes start tonight, midnight I think, with full coverage on Sky Sports. Our current positions are......


Fred's Ashes Urnings (as at 19/11)

Top Ashes Series Batsman, Alastair Cook, £50 @ 11/2, Tighty

Centuries in Ashes, Ian Bell, 2 or more, £75 @ 2.8, Tighty

Stuart Broad, Top England Bowler, £50 @ 3/1, gherkin

First Innings of First Test ONLY

KP Top England Bat, £50 @ 3/1. Bet paid @ 6/1 if he wins, & if the bet loses, but KP hits a ton, we still get paid @ 3/1.
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« Reply #59736 on: November 20, 2013, 01:56:16 PM »

with full coverage on Sky Sports

Thank you, Kev Cadle!
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« Reply #59737 on: November 20, 2013, 01:57:34 PM »

That lovely fella paddy power is doubling odds if u back the top run scorer in an innings in the first ashes test. Both teams are odds on on bf to score a century in the first innings so if u cop it's likely to have been a century. Bit of search shows feed faves bailey and bell, and kp are all top price wi paddy, , 9/2 n 4/1. I've backed bailey n kp, it's 50 max.

Can't believe the pot I missed out on while typing this lol, ace hi shoves flop n gets called by king hi, woulda called n flopped trips otb if not typing ffs.

Reccy 25 on each (choose bell or kp wi bailey? U have a position on bell centuries already)Or a quid if you're tiddlearsing

Missed this previously.

Glad I'm not the only one who struggles to work Fred whilst multi-table pokering, it does my head in. You've never seen such poker misclicks.....
Ha, not partic a tikay misclick, just one of those hands I'd probably have played if not doing something else. In the 6 max UTG min-raised, next guy looked like he liked his hand but I'd just 3bet him last button, eventually just calls, I had A9 on the button, would probably peel normally, defo woulda suited, just folded. Came 992, UTG bet, next guy allin, UTG call....they had AK for allin, KJ (!) for the call. Sigh! Fortunately I got fked later on by a bloke who lost his big stack by calling an all in on the flop with 5 hi no draw after misreading his hand and therefore had to shove on me and outdraw me. Seemed fair.

Anyway, those Paddy conditions....can u have 4x£50 bets, or just a total of £50?! Conditions:

Conditions
   Applies only to bets placed before the first ball of that innings.
   Applies to top team runscorer markets only
   Max stake €50/£50 per customer.
   Refunds will be applied within 12 hours.
   Dead Heat rules apply.
   Paddy Power cricket rules apply.
   Does not apply to bets placed in Irish shops.
   Paddy Power reserves the right, at its discretion, to exclude certain customers from this promotion.
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tikay
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« Reply #59738 on: November 20, 2013, 02:02:21 PM »


Also tonight, & also on Sky Sports, we have Scott's 2 Greyhound selections, who have made the Final of the Eclipse.

Sawpit Sensation, £15 EW @ 12/1, qtr odds 1,2,3.
 

Airlie Impact, £7.50EW @ 25/1, qtr odds 1,2,3.


Current odds are here.....

http://www.oddschecker.com/greyhounds/nottingham/21:19/winner

Racecard is here......

http://www.racingpost.com/greyhounds/card.sd#resultDay=2013-11-20&raceId=1263206



The Racing Post tipped Sawpit this morning, as follows....


Sawpit Sensation 9.19 Nottingham
The defending champ can be backed at around 7-1, or bigger, this morning and with bunching possibly ahead for the favourites on the inside, this popular dog (trap four) is well worth having on your side in the feature 500m Betfred Eclipse final.
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« Reply #59739 on: November 20, 2013, 02:04:40 PM »

That lovely fella paddy power is doubling odds if u back the top run scorer in an innings in the first ashes test. Both teams are odds on on bf to score a century in the first innings so if u cop it's likely to have been a century. Bit of search shows feed faves bailey and bell, and kp are all top price wi paddy, , 9/2 n 4/1. I've backed bailey n kp, it's 50 max.

Can't believe the pot I missed out on while typing this lol, ace hi shoves flop n gets called by king hi, woulda called n flopped trips otb if not typing ffs.

Reccy 25 on each (choose bell or kp wi bailey? U have a position on bell centuries already)Or a quid if you're tiddlearsing

Missed this previously.

Glad I'm not the only one who struggles to work Fred whilst multi-table pokering, it does my head in. You've never seen such poker misclicks.....
Ha, not partic a tikay misclick, just one of those hands I'd probably have played if not doing something else. In the 6 max UTG min-raised, next guy looked like he liked his hand but I'd just 3bet him last button, eventually just calls, I had A9 on the button, would probably peel normally, defo woulda suited, just folded. Came 992, UTG bet, next guy allin, UTG call....they had AK for allin, KJ (!) for the call. Sigh! Fortunately I got fked later on by a bloke who lost his big stack by calling an all in on the flop with 5 hi no draw after misreading his hand and therefore had to shove on me and outdraw me. Seemed fair.

Anyway, those Paddy conditions....can u have 4x£50 bets, or just a total of £50?! Conditions:

Conditions
   Applies only to bets placed before the first ball of that innings.
   Applies to top team runscorer markets only
   Max stake €50/£50 per customer.
   Refunds will be applied within 12 hours.
   Dead Heat rules apply.
   Paddy Power cricket rules apply.
   Does not apply to bets placed in Irish shops.
   Paddy Power reserves the right, at its discretion, to exclude certain customers from this promotion.

Thanks Jeff, but I am "Mr Certain Customer".

No idea what those fortunate still to have fully functioning PP Accounts can do, I'm afraid.
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« Reply #59740 on: November 20, 2013, 02:10:33 PM »

as if captain tiddlearse would bet £50 four times anyway! Was asking others!
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« Reply #59741 on: November 20, 2013, 02:15:40 PM »

Captain Tiddlearse has already done his damage...

"Irish gambling giant Paddy Power saw almost 8% of its value wiped out after the company issued a profit warning on Tuesday.

As the Irish Stock Exchange closed on Monday, shares in Paddy Power ended at €62.50, but this price tanked to €57.45 on the back of news that full operating profit would be approximately €11 million less than previously reported.

Paddy Power Plc issued an Interim Management Statement that said: “The Group’s overall underlying performance has been good in the period; however sports results have been unfavourable.”

Performance has been solid, with its online sportsbook (excluding Australia) seeing a 15% increase in amounts staked and a 17% increase in Gaming/B2B net revenue. Amounts staked in its UK betting shops increased 5%, the same increase in its Irish retail shops. However, online sportsbook revenue tumbled by 11% with total net sportsbook revenue in its UK and Irish betting shops falling by 2% and 4% respectively.

Paddy Power blamed the poor revenue figures on unfavourable sporting results.

“Sports results have remained poor. The Group experienced particularly unfavourable results in July, as disclosed at the announcement of our Interim Results. Since then, adverse sports results have further reduced gross win versus our normal expectations by some €10m, with notably poor results at the recent Australian Spring Racing Carnival and on Champions League football."
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« Reply #59742 on: November 20, 2013, 02:23:03 PM »

On a more selfish note, it's good to see Atlético Madrid cruising along nicely.

On a selfish note we can cheer them on together (as previously mentioned in the thread i liked them at 50-1ew).

Thoughts on this for Fred please.

Atletico Madrid are best priced 17-1 to win the Champions League.

They do look a very decent team and have already won their weak group winning 4 out of 4.

They seem to me like they have some very decent players & although they are nowhere near the best team in the league, I still think they can progress to at least the quaters looking how things are.

They have the inability to be drawn against either of the Spanish teams in the next round, whilst it looks certain they can not be drawn with Bayern either & the likelyhood is that Chelsea, Arsenal & Man United will win their groups. It would see them likely to face a weak team in the last 16 & I am sure that if they progress, they can still put up a game against any of the bigger teams, I would probably have them over any English team.

Not looking it as a win bet, but with possibility to lay it off later? Cheers

Hi Aaron your post wasn't entirely missed. The CL groups are shaping up like this:

1st                    2nd
man utd             bayer lev
real madrid         juve
psg                   olympiakos
bayern munich    man city
chelsea              shalke
arsenal              napoli/dortmund
atletico mad       zenit
barcelona          milan

I'd be with you in taking Atletico in a match bet versus an English side, I fancy this Atletico side as much as any team outside of Bayern, Barca and Real. For a long time they choked versus the Spanish big 2 but that looks to of turned now. Last season they won the Copa Del Roy final against Real who had home advantage and they went unbeaten over 2 legs vs Barca in the Spanish Charity Shield.

Since they were handed an easy group draw they've had 2 very noteworthy results. A very one sided 1-0 win at Real Madrid who were allowed an unusually low amount of shots on goal and a 2-1 comeback at Porto without their 2 best outfield players in Diego Costa and Arda Turan.

There looks to still be a bit of legs in the price to me, perhaps the thread could weigh on it. There's also the question of when to get on it, with top spot already locked up the knockout stages aren't till February.

Coral go 18-1, the machine goes 18.5/19.5.

Thanks for the reply.

I have gone on at 17's, looks like I am going to have to top up with 18's now available.

But do you like 18's? I look at it as the price could go either up or down with regards to who they are drawn with in the knockout stages & only see them in for a tighter game of they are drawn with Man City or Dortmund, but it's a big ask for Dortmund at this point.

For what its worth I tend to agree with Aaron on the Atl Madrid bet.  They are MUCH better this year than last year and are probably as close as you will get to value in the CL this year.  It is something I would be looking to trade though.  I just think it is slight value in its own right.

They have won their group, unlikely that they will face a better side in the next round, in fact the only good side they may face in the next round is Citeh, there isn't much between those. As some others have said, they are not one million miles berhind either of the Spanish giants either.

I think 18-1 is good, but 20-1 is better, this is perhaps 19's with the tax? PS - This is not to win, this is to back and lay later.
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« Reply #59743 on: November 20, 2013, 02:28:22 PM »

I find this quite interesting given that you could argue that Fred had tidings of this when huge amounts of us got "the email" about losing offers at the same time.  Perhaps in future if a bunch of us get accounts closed or some other restriction made at the same time like that we should take a small short position in the firm in question if they are publicly traded.  These swathes of account cutting are almost always, in my opinion, down to bad results and pressured orders from upstairs.

Somewhere in my head I have this romantic notion that I would short the company and cause the share price to go down and publicise the reason for it and somewhere in an office Mssrs Glynn, Topping, Hornby etc would be in an office pulling their hair out saying I finally had them in a corner because if they didn't shut/restrict my accounts their share price would go down because of profit warnings but if they did I would do that anyway by shorting their stock.  Sadly this is a world where my bankroll and bet sizes have 3 or 4 noughts on the end but it makes me happy in quiet moments.
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« Reply #59744 on: November 20, 2013, 02:37:09 PM »

I notice that Hills stopped doing their 'priority price', the last one I can remember was England to win the Ashes at evens whnm they were best price 1/3.
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