Tips for Tikay

[youthnkzR]

Wow! How silly Stevie G.

[MereNovice]

note. I should take the losses on Liverpool bottom half and Southampton relegation? Prudent?  Or wait til 100% certain?


I do like the idea of prudent accounting Rich.

But if we do, where do we draw the line? (With other bets).

And it does make the monthly numbers technically false, too.

I have a completely open mind on this, & my gut instinct is to take losses & hold profits, standard business procedure. But this is not straightforward.

Be interested in Mere & CO Doobs views, & everyone else, too.

Mere would wait til 100% certain, which is the practice I adopt.

Just wondering if that can be thought through again not least because I am reporting on lost positions for no real use. From a writers perspective I would prefer to move on

Admin probity is more important though

It's a very fair question Rich, & there is no perfect answer.

Be good to hear views, though.

The accounts should wait until the bet is settled by the bookmaker.
The ledger should be a reflection of the current actual profit/loss and open bets, not some notional figure that we think is a decent reflection of the state of the bets.
I realise that it is difficult for Tighty (or anyone else) to know when the bet is settled which is why I used to get tikay to update the bets when they were settled (or at least that was the intention).

There may be cases where a bookmaker settles "incorrectly" (in our view) but it is the bookmakers figure that we should use.
The ledger started as an actual reflection of the balances TfT has with each bookmaker not the amount we deemed to be correct. (I appreciate that bets on the Betfair exchange are treated differently due to the desire to reflect a constant 5% commission rate).

I don't see that this necessarily means that Tighty has to report on "dead" positions unless they make a Lazarus-like recovery or he wishes to make a comic point.

[JaffaCake]

Agree wi Mere, if I was doing write ups I'd ignore the dead ones (dead IMO) and not mention them until maybe a line of 'the Liverpool bet was finally confirmed as a loser....'

Anyone got any Ladbrokes free bet suggestions feel free to PM me/FB/tweet/whatever, got fistfuls to use in the next three weeks!

[The Camel]

A friend of mine in the bookmaking industry has asked me to make a ten minute video for their website. It will be a Cheltenham preview and I'm going to do a few. I thought I'd start with the Champion Hurdle as we are still a fair way from the meeting and I felt this was one where we pretty much know who will turn up (with one obvious exception). I think I have a view which I'll share here later, but does anyone have any strong thoughts at the current prices?

 (obviously the last four words are key and I could see the argument for saying the prices are correct and there is no value, is that the case is my question).

This is potentially the best CH for years, and rather you than me trying to pin this one down.

With the make up of the race, the tactics, especially the ground, still up in the air it's a real puzzler.

A couple of points I would make;

The Fly seems better the softer it is, I don't think it's any coincidence he got beat on quicker ground in 2012 and got his crown back in 2013 when it was probably the softest CH ground for a long while(despite what the going report said). I think he just quickens best in softer ground, so a slowish race in soft ground is right up his street, as he has proven time and again he quickens up in the soft.

I see the pace being made by Un de S and Thousand Stars with Our conor tucked in behind. I can see AP and Ruby spending too  much time worried about each other while side by side towards the back, and at the bottom of the hill, OC kicking on and stealing enough rope to win.

The ending may be different but it's how I visualize the race based on the races the protagonists have run at Chelts previously.

The fly in the ointment is Annie Power. If she runs, I think they will all be far more cautious and they will all be a lot closer to the pace, that she surely has to set. Then who knows.

Fwiw I don't see The Fly beating this lot. I love My Tent, and my real hope is that Hendo is plotting the entire season round the festivals because his horses are alarmingly quiet so far this year. My head said after he got outstayed by C Fever last year he didn't have the stamina to win a CH, but my heart is with him.

The New One has always looked a stayer to be and rock solid for the frame, but I can't have him, as I think whichever ground it is someone will have too much speed for him. He was outpaced in the Neptune last year at a stage that makes me worry about a CH candidate.

I haven't backed him, but keep coming back to Our Connor, especially when I watch repeats of his Triumph victory last year, which was awesome. His campaign seems to be geared totally towards the CH and he got very close to The Fly last time, when clearly undercooked.

In terms of value. I don't see much. If anything I can see it cutting up and we maybe get a sub 8 field so some ew thieving maybe order of the day.

Good Luck Neil.

My main view is My Tent or Yours won't win.

If it didn't stay in the Novices last season, why woukld it stay this year against better horses, going faster in the first 1 1/2 miles?

I might even do what I very rarely do - put in a keep bet on Betfair and try and lay it at 2.2 or something - because it will probably be travelling best on the home turn.

[sonour]

Agree wi Mere, if I was doing write ups I'd ignore the dead ones (dead IMO) and not mention them until maybe a line of 'the Liverpool bet was finally confirmed as a loser....'

Anyone got any Ladbrokes free bet suggestions feel free to PM me/FB/tweet/whatever, got fistfuls to use in the next three weeks!

Arsenal v Liverpool 2-2

15.0 at Ladbrokes over a grand at 14.5 to lay at Befair.

[sonour]

Agree wi Mere, if I was doing write ups I'd ignore the dead ones (dead IMO) and not mention them until maybe a line of 'the Liverpool bet was finally confirmed as a loser....'

Anyone got any Ladbrokes free bet suggestions feel free to PM me/FB/tweet/whatever, got fistfuls to use in the next three weeks!

Arsenal v Liverpool 2-2

15.0 at Ladbrokes over a grand at 14.5 to lay at Befair.

At 3% commission returns 94%

[Karabiner]

A friend of mine in the bookmaking industry has asked me to make a ten minute video for their website. It will be a Cheltenham preview and I'm going to do a few. I thought I'd start with the Champion Hurdle as we are still a fair way from the meeting and I felt this was one where we pretty much know who will turn up (with one obvious exception). I think I have a view which I'll share here later, but does anyone have any strong thoughts at the current prices?

 (obviously the last four words are key and I could see the argument for saying the prices are correct and there is no value, is that the case is my question).

This is potentially the best CH for years, and rather you than me trying to pin this one down.

With the make up of the race, the tactics, especially the ground, still up in the air it's a real puzzler.

A couple of points I would make;

The Fly seems better the softer it is, I don't think it's any coincidence he got beat on quicker ground in 2012 and got his crown back in 2013 when it was probably the softest CH ground for a long while(despite what the going report said). I think he just quickens best in softer ground, so a slowish race in soft ground is right up his street, as he has proven time and again he quickens up in the soft.

I see the pace being made by Un de S and Thousand Stars with Our conor tucked in behind. I can see AP and Ruby spending too  much time worried about each other while side by side towards the back, and at the bottom of the hill, OC kicking on and stealing enough rope to win.

The ending may be different but it's how I visualize the race based on the races the protagonists have run at Chelts previously.

The fly in the ointment is Annie Power. If she runs, I think they will all be far more cautious and they will all be a lot closer to the pace, that she surely has to set. Then who knows.

Fwiw I don't see The Fly beating this lot. I love My Tent, and my real hope is that Hendo is plotting the entire season round the festivals because his horses are alarmingly quiet so far this year. My head said after he got outstayed by C Fever last year he didn't have the stamina to win a CH, but my heart is with him.

The New One has always looked a stayer to be and rock solid for the frame, but I can't have him, as I think whichever ground it is someone will have too much speed for him. He was outpaced in the Neptune last year at a stage that makes me worry about a CH candidate.

I haven't backed him, but keep coming back to Our Connor, especially when I watch repeats of his Triumph victory last year, which was awesome. His campaign seems to be geared totally towards the CH and he got very close to The Fly last time, when clearly undercooked.

In terms of value. I don't see much. If anything I can see it cutting up and we maybe get a sub 8 field so some ew thieving maybe order of the day.

Good Luck Neil.

My main view is My Tent or Yours won't win.

If it didn't stay in the Novices last season, why woukld it stay this year against better horses, going faster in the first 1 1/2 miles?

I might even do what I very rarely do - put in a keep bet on Betfair and try and lay it at 2.2 or something - because it will probably be travelling best on the home turn.

I'm not saying that I disagree with your opinion here Keith as I am firmly with The Fly, but the time of last year's Supreme was almost four seconds faster than the CH.

I can't remember if it was raining or not.

[Bad Beat]

 Cheers guys. I sent a PM to Adz with my thoughts as I didn't want to prejudice what anyone else said.

 I think between us we have found a great bet in this race though.

 I'll post my reasoning when I get make from making the video.

 If nobody minds I can put it up here, but it will be branded by the bookie (who claim they really do intend to start taking bets following a change in ownership and management).

[TightEnd]

Man we missed a trick in the cricket yesterday

Aus 397 SA 71/4

I just couldn't understand why SA won the toss and bowled (esp as it turns out Steyn had a gastro bug) so left it

this pitch might not last (playably) til the 4th day, lots of variable bounce

Aus were 5/2 when I posted their price 24 hours ago, but bottled out in confusion!

[TightEnd]

Ch4 racing has just tweeted the following on a stable tour



"Past Festival winner AL FEROF may tackle the Champion Chase if it's heavy at Cheltenham, with the Ryanair 1st choice"

Mar-2014   Horses   Ryanair, Cheltenham   Al Ferof   7/1   25   Free bet   

was there some chatter about covering on the other race?

[BorntoBubble]

Why would you take your top off when you celebrate anyway? I don't get it!

I understand the going into the crowd thing but taking the top off should just be a red no point.

Hate that when someone scores a pivotal goal they then get a yellow for celebrating with the fans

[Karabiner]

Why would you take your top off when you celebrate anyway? I don't get it!

I understand the going into the crowd thing but taking the top off should just be a red no point.

Hate that when someone scores a pivotal goal they then get a yellow for celebrating with the fans

If I were a manager I would fine any player who took his shirt off (ergo deliberately incurring a yellow card) a week's wages. That would soon put an end to it.

[Doobs]

Ch4 racing has just tweeted the following on a stable tour



"Past Festival winner AL FEROF may tackle the Champion Chase if it's heavy at Cheltenham, with the Ryanair 1st choice"

Mar-2014   Horses   Ryanair, Cheltenham   Al Ferof   7/1   25   Free bet   

was there some chatter about covering on the other race?

I think the chat was around the Gold Cup, but it isn't in the entries anymore.  You can get 50/1 on Betfair for the Champion.  Not sure I would bother.

I don't know what is happening with Splash, but Perri last laid on Betfair at 1.26, Richard 4.9.  Glad we didn't cover Richard at evens.  There is still some 1/2, 4/9 available for those that don't have as much as thread and I have on.  Don't expect me to understand what is happening though.

[david3103]

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/sport/football/article-2256021/Why-Premier-League-stars-t-shirts-score.html

"pre-planned bookings"

[Ant040689]

Did Mr G get booked for this?

If so, might it count towards a suspension, & him missing a game(s)?

If so, would he get paid during his absence?

Would the Club fine him his full wages for the period he is absent?

In theory, that act of stupidity COULD cost Liverpool a CL spot, or even the PL title. It really could.

Whether the rule is right or wrong is wholly irrelevant, the rule is there, end of story.

A Fulham player did the same thing, & got himself Booked. That could mean the difference between Fulham staying up, or being relegated, which has the potential - literally - to make tens of £illions difference to the Club.  

Honestly, if I were their Managers, I'd have them shot.

He did indeed get booked for this, and I whole-heartedly agree with you.

Well that is a ridiculous act of wanton stupidity on his part.

When they are on 4 yellow cards and have an "easy" home fixture next they may look to get a yellow card then so the suspension for 5 yellow cards lands on a day the team should be equipped to win without the player, who would then return with a clean slate.

Also you have tactical card getting and think I have seen it at its worst from Kevin Nolan. Something was very wrong with the two reds he got near Christmas and my gut feeling suggests he may have got them deliberately to perhaps have an extended time off over the festive period. Both were senseless.