Tips for Tikay

[tikay]

Two suggestions for the weekend

First, and to give Marky a chortle..

Merry King in the Grand National Trial tomorrow.

Run two crackers at Haydock in big races. still well handicapped and only going to improve as a stayer(still only 7).

Much as I respect Richie Mclernon, he seems to be asleep to the fact that MK needs a bloody good beating urging along as the race quickens up, and its not until these races have finished that he gets MK rolling again.

Tomorrow we have no such issues as we have AP on board, for the first time since a totally unsuitable 2m nervous chase a while back. Difference maker in my book.

I was very keen on the with Coral earlier, as they only way I could see him not being in the frame was if he falls(Corals have a faller money back promo). Sadly I may have overdone it.

Anyway, he is generally

£20 ew @8s


Ok, head down Adz.

How the hell can Liverpool be almost 2-1 after last week?

Arsenal are now also without Carzola, and must be flat as a witches tit at the moment. Couldn't even beat a Manure team even more in the doldrums than us.

Opinions?

Thanks Adz, this to get us out of February trouble then.

We got 9/1 with Betfred.

£20 EW @ 9/1 (qtr odds, 1,2,3), Merry King, Haydock, Grand National Trial, Adzy

Will look at that Arsenal - Liverpool affair later, after feedback.


Bet placed, its reference is 264/284
 


Bet ref: 264/284 £20.00 Single





Betfred Grand National Trial
Outright Nrnb
EW 1/4 1,2,3

Merry King

8/1

 
Total stake

£ 40.00



Estimated return

£ 240.00


Full estimated return

£ 240.00

BET PLACED

[tikay]

Hilly's 12-1 about good ground for the opening race of the Festival looks an over-reaction to me, given Cheltenham tends to miss a lot of the weather and dries out very quickly. It's still a way off, and the ground has been good on the opening day five times in the past 11 seasons.
 
In one of those years it was heavy on the Saturday before the Festival and good by the following Friday. The Clerk loves to try and give good to soft if he can, but we also have good, good to soft patches running for us.

2013 Soft
2012 Good
2011 Good
2010 Good to Soft
2009 Good to Soft
2008** Good to Soft
2007 Soft
2006 Good to Soft
2005 Good
2004 Good
2003 Good

Interesting, thanks Mr W.

We got the 12/1, & it is now down to 10/1.

£25 @ 12/1, Wm Hill, Going "Good" for the Sun "We backed the whole bloody Field" Alliance Chase, Chelters, Chompy


Stake

Supreme Novices' Hurdle - What Will The Official Going Be On The 'Off' – Good @ 12/1

- £25.00

O/0457483/0000821/F


BET PLACED

I am in Chelts atm. Its abso chucking it down....again. lol

No worries, it's the storm before the lull.

[tikay]

Sorry Lisa, didn't explain myself properly. The reason I started looking at the race was for the each-way angle, I'm not certain Cloudy Too is the best ew bet in the race but it is a good bet win or each-way and it is the best price with Hills and no bigger on Betfair so win-only I think it's a good home for a free bet.

 For those not using a free bet it's not the worst ew bet in the world (I quite like it) but I might wait until tomorrow as the race has the dead eight and it would be a poor ew bet with 7-runners.

 Just to clarify...as a Grade 1 race this one closed early so bets today are like "day of race " bets. They are not ante-post. You get the price you take today but you may have a rule four and a change of ew terms if there is a NR.

I guessed you wasn't suggesting each way for the free bet Neil
I just wanted to make sure Tikay didn't use the free bet in that way.

Where were you for the first 2 years whilst I was misclicking for England?

[Tal]

Sorry Lisa, didn't explain myself properly. The reason I started looking at the race was for the each-way angle, I'm not certain Cloudy Too is the best ew bet in the race but it is a good bet win or each-way and it is the best price with Hills and no bigger on Betfair so win-only I think it's a good home for a free bet.

 For those not using a free bet it's not the worst ew bet in the world (I quite like it) but I might wait until tomorrow as the race has the dead eight and it would be a poor ew bet with 7-runners.

 Just to clarify...as a Grade 1 race this one closed early so bets today are like "day of race " bets. They are not ante-post. You get the price you take today but you may have a rule four and a change of ew terms if there is a NR.

I guessed you wasn't suggesting each way for the free bet Neil
I just wanted to make sure Tikay didn't use the free bet in that way.

Where were you for the first 2 years whilst I was building a 'roll by misclicking for England?

FYP

[Marky147]

I'd prefer he got us out of it at Aintree, Adz

[McGlashan]

Derek Chisora vs Kevin Johnson should be an interesting boxing match on Saturday night.

It's Del Boy's marauding style versus Kingpin's extremely minimal effort. Chisora is the 1/5 favourite, that's 4/7 to win by decision and 3-1 for the stoppage. The price for it to go the distance looks all wrong to me, given how quickly the lazy Johnson let's his opponents into range it will make for a very long 12 rounds.

Johnson has only lost 4/34 bouts, 2 of his losses came in his last 3 fights and he doesn't look to have a lot of fight left in him. He's still a well known name but too much has been made of the fact he's never been stopped. In those losses his opponents have been comfortably ahead on the scorecard and did not need to go looking for the knockout. Chisora won't be looking for a points victory, recently he's been so over eager to blow his opponents out of there he has completely ignored the jab in favour of constant power shots. It's not a balanced plan but it should be effective when you consider Johnson's defense (or lack of).

When Johnson see's punches coming he's not fond of moving out the way. Instead he forms an unorthodox guard with his freakishly long arms up head to toe (one hand pointing north, one pointing south) across his torso and arches his back, moving his head out of range. It's strangely effective at distance but not when up close, he repeatedly let Solomon Haumono sit on him and crucially he never held or counter punched. He looks tailor made for Chisora's smothering style of working the body up close and throwing big looping punches round the guard.

Suggested bet £40 on Chisora by stoppage, 3-1 general is good, 4.3 on Betfair's Sportsbook is better.

Do you know who the ref is? With a random I'd say it's a decent bet, with some refs I'd say it's a fantastic bet. Kingpin will barely throw 10 punches a round and I can see a "British" stoppage in the 2nd have of the fight with Chisora throwing punches with little coming back from Kingpin.

Nope, I can't see it anywhere. It would be nice if someone could tell us how you find that out in advance.

[tikay]

I'd prefer he got us out of it at Aintree, Adz

Marky, did you put a bet on for Fred (£5?) earlier in the week?

[BigAdz]

I'd prefer he got us out of it at Aintree, Adz

Needs a fair few to come out to make it in mate. Time will tell.

[Marky147]

I'd prefer he got us out of it at Aintree, Adz

Marky, did you put a bet on for Fred (£5?) earlier in the week?

I did, but unfortunately there are no returns.

Good news is that you don't owe me anything, but the bad news is that you're no longer in credit.

[TightEnd]

I'd prefer he got us out of it at Aintree, Adz

Marky, did you put a bet on for Fred (£5?) earlier in the week?

I did, but unfortunately there are no returns.

Good news is that you don't owe me anything, but the bad news is that you're no longer in credit.

I did not record anything in admin. Should I have done?

[tikay]

I'd prefer he got us out of it at Aintree, Adz

Marky, did you put a bet on for Fred (£5?) earlier in the week?

I did, but unfortunately there are no returns.

Good news is that you don't owe me anything, but the bad news is that you're no longer in credit.

I did not record anything in admin. Should I have done?

Yes, I did see the Post earlier in the week, but never got round to replying, apologies to both you & marky.

I'll look it out this afternoon so you can update the Spready. I have no recollection of what it was at present.

Marky is omnipotent, or omnipresent, or whatever, he was e-Mailing the Show last night to urge Team Maths to victory in the Sky Sports Bounty Hunter. My bokking skills won through, though.

[Marky147]

Wanted to wait for more firms to price up but be surprised if we beat 6-1

http://www.oddschecker.com/horse-racing-betting/2014-02-11-southwell/15:40/winner

Suggest £30 win Danisa 6-1 vcbet

reasoning to follow later fancy potentially a few more dependent on prices

http://www.oddschecker.com/horse-racing-betting/southwell/15:40/winner

Danisa is now 9/2 in a few spots quite happy to back it at that price

I owe Tikay a score anyway, so have chucked it on with Sid @ 5/1

[Marky147]

I'd prefer he got us out of it at Aintree, Adz

Marky, did you put a bet on for Fred (£5?) earlier in the week?

I did, but unfortunately there are no returns.

Good news is that you don't owe me anything, but the bad news is that you're no longer in credit.

I did not record anything in admin. Should I have done?

Yes, I did see the Post earlier in the week, but never got round to replying, apologies to both you & marky.

I'll look it out this afternoon so you can update the Spready. I have no recollection of what it was at present.

Marky is omnipotent, or omnipresent, or whatever, he was e-Mailing the Show last night to urge Team Maths to victory in the Sky Sports Bounty Hunter. My bokking skills won through, though.

They did indeed!

I was a bit disappointed that my question wasn't asked though

[tikay]

I'd prefer he got us out of it at Aintree, Adz

Marky, did you put a bet on for Fred (£5?) earlier in the week?

I did, but unfortunately there are no returns.

Good news is that you don't owe me anything, but the bad news is that you're no longer in credit.

I did not record anything in admin. Should I have done?

Yes, I did see the Post earlier in the week, but never got round to replying, apologies to both you & marky.

I'll look it out this afternoon so you can update the Spready. I have no recollection of what it was at present.

Marky is omnipotent, or omnipresent, or whatever, he was e-Mailing the Show last night to urge Team Maths to victory in the Sky Sports Bounty Hunter. My bokking skills won through, though.

They did indeed!

I was a bit disappointed that my question wasn't asked though

Ha, I never saw the question, but Sarah read it out. Presumably that was the censored version.

[Marky147]

I'd prefer he got us out of it at Aintree, Adz

Marky, did you put a bet on for Fred (£5?) earlier in the week?

I did, but unfortunately there are no returns.

Good news is that you don't owe me anything, but the bad news is that you're no longer in credit.

I did not record anything in admin. Should I have done?

Yes, I did see the Post earlier in the week, but never got round to replying, apologies to both you & marky.

I'll look it out this afternoon so you can update the Spready. I have no recollection of what it was at present.

Marky is omnipotent, or omnipresent, or whatever, he was e-Mailing the Show last night to urge Team Maths to victory in the Sky Sports Bounty Hunter. My bokking skills won through, though.

They did indeed!

I was a bit disappointed that my question wasn't asked though

Ha, I never saw the question, but Sarah read it out. Presumably that was the censored version.

It was nothing bad, I just asked how you got around Starbucks withdrawals when 6 tabling online.