Tips for Tikay

[Omm]

Lyreen Legend has been refunded as nrnb for Ryanair for those that done it with 365.

Is it definitely in the Gold Cup, out of the Ryanair declarations? (admin question)

Definitely out of Ryanair declarations, pretty certain someone put on here last week(ish) that owners wanted it to go to Gold Cup or something similar.

[Rubbish2407]

Tighty beat me to it, oh well.

Hi Sergio, we've got 50/1 on you, any chance you can podium?



Hi Fred, I'll try my best.

Hi Angelique, we've got 20's for you to win Indian Wells.



No 20's you silly mare.

By Carston see you in five.



Years that is.

No try from Tom last night.

Click to see full-size image.

Awesome game though, ended 12-12.

Hopefully at least one try today BOD.



That's it Brian, focus.

I'd watch it.



CESM's at their best.

This man had a great game against the French and now starts against England.



Best beard in Rugby.

Craig Mitchell did a Q&A at St Athans Primary School.



Tough questions?

Jade Etherington wins Silver in Paralympics Downhill.



Go girl.

Continuing the Celebrity Footy Fan theme.



Is this true Chompy?

Later.

[superwomble]

Wenger has confirmed Flappyanski plays in goal today. Worth backing Everton at 18/5?

[tikay]

Ooh, plenty of material to work on this morning, Recommends galore, thanks lads.

I'll get cracking.

[tikay]

...and TWO excellent photo-galleries.

Better & better, thanks.

[tikay]

The keen eyed amongst you may have noted that the forward book is now £4072, first time it has crept over £4k that I know of

That is a bit scary, &  really a bit higher than I'd like, but I would imagine a goodly lump of it is for Cheltenham, & I think it's right & proper that we invest on such occasions.

Hopefully it'll be back to around £3,000 by next Friday evening, & we'll have turned some of that investment into profit.

[tikay]

I don't post much and therefore my opinion doesn't really matter, but I preferred it without offers/ promos being posted so much. The thread just seems full of bookie price boosts which are obviously normally good bets, but what I love about the thread is reading the opinions and discussions of various markets. It just seems too easy go go arb hunting/ watching for boosts and posting

Fair comment, & it will worsen in the days leading up to Cheltenham, but after that, it'll revert to normal, which is not so bad.

I don't really want to discourage anyone from Posting whatever they wish. It may - or may not - be a slight irritant to read stuff we don't all enjoy, but overall, it's part of of how things work here, & I think it's tolerable. Young Aaron may disagree, of course, but his tolerance threshold is rather low by most standards... 

Worsen?  Didn't we make a killing last year at Cheltenham taking advantage of bookies generous offers.  Think it is going to be tougher this year with less avenues open.

Finding an each way race paying 5 places and putting the max you can on, isn't a lot different than finding somebody willing to give you a 2nd place free bet, or finding a bookie willing to pay you each way in a one sided International.  I'd say they were all much more like the cash/sit and go/lammers grind. Might get a bit boring after a while, but you still have to eat.

Now finding out Eddie The Eagle is already off the high board, that is much more like your MTT bink.

Really is nothing stopping people putting well thought out posts up, probably a better way to address the current imbalance than cutting out the offers stuff. 

Which is exactly what seems to have happened.

[tikay]

All joking apart I think Dubais post was a good one.  I know Keith tipped Hull in the Cup a few weeks ago but there is almost never a reasoned argument to bet a football team on here these days and rarely does someone go into great detail about a horse they like etc.   I have never mentioned this before but the reason I came to Blonde in the first place was because I knew Keith posted here and we had mutual friends who respected his view so when I saw he posted here I thought I would keep visiting to see if I could learn something new and then discovered that the place was full of smart punters and quite friendly.  Personally I can almost never get on any of the offers when I am not in the UK but i lie to read about them and I think Sonour in particular has brough a great deal to the table and it is testament to the strength of Fred that Arbboy is so keen to not get banned he has resisted having a single ruck here yet!!!!

I agree with this post, but isn't it somewhat against the theory that all of a football teams results/form/injury news is already factored into the price and thus to beat the bookies margin you need to be able to post some nugget of local knowledge that the layers haven't bothered to pick up on because it is down in League 2?   

I have looked at a couple of prices for lower league games and thought "that looks wrong", but then thought "maybe I'm wrong because it's all in the price etc".  I've backed them myself, but didn't have the confidence to post it up on the thread.

Why not just post itt saying it's an idea instead of a recommendation ?

That way you either get agreed with and thread can get on, or someone with more knowledge of the market can help educate you, win win, confirmed best part of the thread.

Don't think I've seen anyone receive genuine aggro itt about a tip in 4k+ pages so I can't see any reason why anyone wouldn't feel happy to post there ideas itt.

Also this way when thread ignores and you win you get to be a smartarse (cough cough, Tyne Wear derby, cough cough).

Correct.

We have a bit of banter, but nobody gets mocked, & the thread is largely respectful, as it should be, so no reason not to think out loud if anyone has any ideas.

[tikay]

Ok - so I'll give an example.

Plymouth are 19/10 dogs at Bristol Rovers tomorrow.  I've followed both teams closely all season as I have season long spread bet positions.  Plymouth are bombing it at the moment and have real momentum, whereas Bristol Rovers have generally been poor, but have been showing a bit of life recently.

I thought this would be priced more along the lines of Hartlepool at Wycombe on the same day where Hartlepool are 13/8 so my head is thinking that Plymouth are a good price.  However, I then default to thinking the form/momentum/morale is already in the price so it's just an error in judgement on my behalf.

Any further views on this?

[tikay]

Tikay,

You asked earlier about PP Messenger. It is an app. You need to go to the App Store and download it. You will need your apple id and password. My  apple id which is my email address comes up automatically. It is free. Then login with your normal PP login details.

Lovely, thanks. Except I had major Apple Log-In problems yesterday.

Might be easily resolved, might not, see.....


http://www.mirror.co.uk/news/technology-science/technology/apple-refuses-unlock-dead-womans-3214436


Anyway, will try a bit later. I'll tell them I'm still breathing.

Hi sonour n tikay. Got this working ok last night just randomly opening it again and on about the 20th time it worked.

If u go to paddy powers normal site its also in the boxes u can scroll along at the bottom of the first screen. Scroll all the way to the right, it's the last one, don't think u need Apple ID etc then.

Fred is great as he is, any boring stuff (Tal) u just skip, all the good stuff (rest of it) I read and back the good ideas or the guys I trust. Don't split Fred, who will be in the woman's dress/dogging area wi Tal?

Appreciate both tikay n tighty for the time they put in, keep up the good work x

PS I love Tal too, just he takes banter better than others (Arbboy)

I'm not 100% sure, Jeff, but I'm not entirely sure that is the correct terminology for Crufts.

On which note, during Tuesday's Show, I got into a bit of trouble with the Suits upstairs after I used what appears to have been an indelicate word.

I like to try & freshen up all the old cliches we use in poker, & was looking for a word to replace a "gutshot" or "gutterball".

I came up with what I thought was ideal, but when I said it, there were initially guffaws from the Gallery, followed by a stern ticking off from the Producer, & a stiff Memo the next morning.

I thought slotter was the perfect word for a gutshot.

He needs a slotter. 

Seems not.


http://www.urbandictionary.com/define.php?term=Slotter

[Omm]

Tikay,

You asked earlier about PP Messenger. It is an app. You need to go to the App Store and download it. You will need your apple id and password. My  apple id which is my email address comes up automatically. It is free. Then login with your normal PP login details.

Lovely, thanks. Except I had major Apple Log-In problems yesterday.

Might be easily resolved, might not, see.....


http://www.mirror.co.uk/news/technology-science/technology/apple-refuses-unlock-dead-womans-3214436


Anyway, will try a bit later. I'll tell them I'm still breathing.

Hi sonour n tikay. Got this working ok last night just randomly opening it again and on about the 20th time it worked.

If u go to paddy powers normal site its also in the boxes u can scroll along at the bottom of the first screen. Scroll all the way to the right, it's the last one, don't think u need Apple ID etc then.

Fred is great as he is, any boring stuff (Tal) u just skip, all the good stuff (rest of it) I read and back the good ideas or the guys I trust. Don't split Fred, who will be in the woman's dress/dogging area wi Tal?

Appreciate both tikay n tighty for the time they put in, keep up the good work x

PS I love Tal too, just he takes banter better than others (Arbboy)

I'm not 100% sure, Jeff, but I'm not entirely sure that is the correct terminology for Crufts.

On which note, during Tuesday's Show, I got into a bit of trouble with the Suits upstairs after I used what appears to have been an indelicate word.

I like to try & freshen up all the old cliches we use in poker, & was looking for a word to replace a "gutshot" or "gutterball".

I came up with what I thought was ideal, but when I said it, there were initially guffaws from the Gallery, followed by a stern ticking off from the Producer, & a stiff Memo the next morning.

I thought slotter was the perfect word for a gutshot.

He needs a slotter. 

Seems not.


http://www.urbandictionary.com/define.php?term=Slotter

Too funny Tikay.

[tikay]

1 Leeds have a terrific back line, but are small up front. They tend to play expansively, get the ball out wide quick and have very creative centres to make the chances. This is why Briscoe, Hardaker and co are such a threat

2 RL v RU. Particularly early in games between closely matched sides the main try scoring opportunities are found when the attacking side takes it up for the first five tackles, and on the sixth tackle 10 metres from the line the half-back does the grubber kick or the bomb out wide to a) look for a defensive mistake b) pin the defence in the in-goal area for a drop out or c) let the winger go up/get it and score.

So a winger either has a chance from c) or, for the better teams, the attack get repeated sets of six to build pressure and eventually a lot of teams lose defensive discipline and the wide overlap is created

Later in games as defences tire you see more tries from open play, breaking tackles earlier in the tackle count etc

Having looked at back of an envelope stuff I have been doing, a disproportionate number of first tries in RL are scored by wingers

Its a punt - the other team can score first of course, but its no surprise to see wingers score first tries the way RL games are played

http://www.oddschecker.com/rugby-league/super-league/huddersfield-v-leeds/first-tryscorer

Briscoe at 9/1 is a £10 type bet that I don't think is a 9-1 shot. Ryan Hall is not currently first choice and he is joint favourite. Mcgillvary is the Huddersfield winger

I never realised this was last night Tighty, sorry, I was offline all evening.

Fortunately, it seems we saved a tenner.

Anyway, what's with all this deep analysis of Rugby League, a game, if I recall correctly, you previously mocked? Who wrote that stuff?

Anyway, Rugby League is for the working class, you are posh, so you need to stick to RU.

[Doobs]

The keen eyed amongst you may have noted that the forward book is now £4072, first time it has crept over £4k that I know of

That is a bit scary, &  really a bit higher than I'd like, but I would imagine a goodly lump of it is for Cheltenham, & I think it's right & proper that we invest on such occasions.

Hopefully it'll be back to around £3,000 by next Friday evening, & we'll have turned some of that investment into profit.

I am going to do my bit to get that 4k down.  There is a £5 bet on Messi to win the ballon d'or on the spreadsheet.  Think this went to Ronaldo.

Now about that press on Lewis Hamilton!

[tikay]

Tennis arb opportunity

Only kidding. I wouldn't say that this is a genuine arb since the rules for void bets vary from bookie to bookie, i.e. satan will void the bet unless the match is completed.


Camila Giorgi v Sorana Cirstea

http://www.oddschecker.com/tennis/wta-indian-wells/camila-giorgi-v-sorana-cirstea/winner

Satan has Giorgi (ranked 79) at 10/11. (They are definite stand-out here).
Bet247 has Cirstea (ranked 27) 11/8.

I'd suggest that both of these are value bets. Someone with more insight than me may be able to tell you which one is better.
The match is 6pm tomorrow so I don't think that they can accept your bet now and void it after the match if they don't like the result.
Betfair is currently lacking in volume but favours Giorgi.
http://www.betfair.com/exchange/tennis/market?id=1.113155322&exp=e

There has been a lot of money for Giorgi following a good win against Petkovic in the previous round (Cirstea got a bye). I've watched Cirstea's last three matches and she is in poor form but basically just her usual inconsistent self. She was very poor in her last match against Wozniacki but decent against an ordinary Errani in her previous match.
Cirstea is not injured as far as news reports and social media indicate.
https://twitter.com/sorana_cirstea
https://www.facebook.com/Soranacirstea

As Fred is persona non grata with satan and heavily restricted with Bet247 this isn't really of any use to him; I just thought that I'd post something.

Thanks Mere.

I think we ought to have a small investment on Cirstea @ 11/8, Bet237 would only permit us £3.64, but BMU obliged, so we have had an interest.

This may prove useful if she loses, as I will have some ammo available for next week's Cheltenham Tippong Comp when you start giving me gip.

Camila Giorgi v Sorana CirsteaSorana Cirstea (Match Betting)Odds: 11/8 Stake: 16.00Possible Return:  38.00


BET PLACED

[tikay]

The keen eyed amongst you may have noted that the forward book is now £4072, first time it has crept over £4k that I know of

That is a bit scary, &  really a bit higher than I'd like, but I would imagine a goodly lump of it is for Cheltenham, & I think it's right & proper that we invest on such occasions.

Hopefully it'll be back to around £3,000 by next Friday evening, & we'll have turned some of that investment into profit.

I am going to do my bit to get that 4k down.  There is a £5 bet on Messi to win the ballon d'or on the spreadsheet.  Think this went to Ronaldo.

Now about that press on Lewis Hamilton!

Fantastic, £5 off the bill.

Am working through the stuff in date/time order, so if the Hamilton bet is still to come, I'll have a look, if not, can you bump it please? I assume he drives for Mercedes, if so, I'll deffo get on, even though he is a thoroughly horrible little man.