Tips for Tikay

[TightEnd]

If you don't think managers do any good after leaving spurs, don't forget how well Arry has done at QPR.

pardon? he's doing appallingly with that budget and squad in the championship

[horseplayer]

Avb had an excellent record at Spurs or at least good

Clouded by the last few games were he had obviously lost the dressing room for whatever reason and him having about 2 friends in the media compared to Sherwood and 'arry who seem to have hundreds

[TightEnd]

Click to see full-size image.

Click to see full-size image.

Click to see full-size image.

the tie will be (9/2, nap)

Click to see full-size image.

[Tal]

If you don't think managers do any good after leaving spurs, don't forget how well Arry has done at QPR.

pardon? he's doing appallingly with that budget and squad in the championship

The TFT Sarcasmometer is on the blink again.

[doubleup]

Masters Golf.

It is increasingly rumoured that Tiger Woods will miss The Masters due to injury.



http://www.tigerwoods.com/news/2014/03/18/69554590/tiger-to-miss-arnold-palmer-invitational-due-to-back-spasms/



Does this open up any exploitable angles for us?


http://www.oddschecker.com/golf/the-masters/winner

get another £200 on this*

http://www.oddschecker.com/golf/the-masters/maiden-winner

and put £50 on Tiger with Bierfart Sportsbook at 10-1






*That is now a great bet again with Tigers slippage

[tikay]

At which point, I think we should wish "Happy Birthday" to one of Fred's greatest, endearing, most profitable, & much loved Tipsters.

Some of the bets & progress reports he has Posted have made seasoned punters gasp.

But can anyone name him?

[Tal]

Bruce Willis?

[tikay]

Masters Golf.

It is increasingly rumoured that Tiger Woods will miss The Masters due to injury.



http://www.tigerwoods.com/news/2014/03/18/69554590/tiger-to-miss-arnold-palmer-invitational-due-to-back-spasms/



Does this open up any exploitable angles for us?


http://www.oddschecker.com/golf/the-masters/winner

get another £200 on this*

http://www.oddschecker.com/golf/the-masters/maiden-winner

and put £50 on Tiger with Bierfart Sportsbook at 10-1






*That is now a great bet again with Tigers slippage

How much do we have on so far?

And we are backing Tiger for £50 @ 10/1 because.....?

Not arguing, just need to understand the thinking.

[tikay]

Bruce Willis?

Please.

Tighty might believe you, he has his tongue-in-cheek-o-meter turned off today.

[Tal]

Bruce Willis?

Please.

Tighty might believe you, he has his tongue-in-cheek-o-meter turned off today.

Born 19 March 1955, Mr Willis.

[tikay]

Bruce Willis?

Please.

Tighty might believe you, he has his tongue-in-cheek-o-meter turned off today.

Born 19 March 1955, Mr Willis.

Oh, I see.

Well we just need to know what Fred Elder he shares that birthday with now.

[tikay]

Masters Golf.

It is increasingly rumoured that Tiger Woods will miss The Masters due to injury.



http://www.tigerwoods.com/news/2014/03/18/69554590/tiger-to-miss-arnold-palmer-invitational-due-to-back-spasms/



Does this open up any exploitable angles for us?


http://www.oddschecker.com/golf/the-masters/winner

get another £200 on this*

http://www.oddschecker.com/golf/the-masters/maiden-winner

and put £50 on Tiger with Bierfart Sportsbook at 10-1






*That is now a great bet again with Tigers slippage

How much do we have on so far?

And we are backing Tiger for £50 @ 10/1 because.....?

Not arguing, just need to understand the thinking.

We currently have....

£50 @ 4/5

£55 @ 8/11

I've just added a further £110 @ 8/11.

I think that's enough.



19/03/2014 GBP 110.00 Single: 1ST TIME US MASTERS WINNER @ 8/11




Betid 37607742900


BET PLACED

[doubleup]

Masters Golf.

It is increasingly rumoured that Tiger Woods will miss The Masters due to injury.



http://www.tigerwoods.com/news/2014/03/18/69554590/tiger-to-miss-arnold-palmer-invitational-due-to-back-spasms/



Does this open up any exploitable angles for us?


http://www.oddschecker.com/golf/the-masters/winner

get another £200 on this*

http://www.oddschecker.com/golf/the-masters/maiden-winner

and put £50 on Tiger with Bierfart Sportsbook at 10-1






*That is now a great bet again with Tigers slippage

How much do we have on so far?

And we are backing Tiger for £50 @ 10/1 because.....?

Not arguing, just need to understand the thinking.

If you imagine a dice roll and we back 1 3 and 5 - so we are evens.  Tiger is 4.  So if we back him at 5-1, we are neutral.  

But there is a chance that 5 will be removed from the dice, so the chance of 1 3 or 5 goes up to 60% and we still get evens.  We get our money returned from the bet on tiger.

So it is effectively a sort of freeroll.

[doubleup]

I know you have £100 on and you should have had £500.

[Tal]

My record in these has been far from stellar, but I'm going to suggest a chess match bet...

Remember the old name for the Snickers chocolate bar? Well this bet is with that bookmarking firm.

If you play a hard game where you almost won but didn't, it is common to try a quieter game and take a draw, almost like a semi-rest day. Same applies if you ballsed up a level or better game and lost. You have to get it out of your mind and move on.

Veselin Topalov got a nice position today out of a very well prepared opening but then made a few poor moves and got into trouble. If you're playing baseline tennis, you have to make sure you're hitting deep; too many near the service line and you'll be punished. The same is true in chess; they don't have to be bad moves; just a couple of suboptimal ones and you could be toast. He has come with a game plan to get good positions out of the openings and play solidly in the first half of the comp, before going for wins in the second half.

Vladmir Kramnik has been showing signs of some of his best chess, without quite bursting through into full bloom. It is coming, though. He had a long break before this comp and, like horses, some are better for the run, while some like a long lay off. He typically gets better as the comp goes on and in the last Candidates, he started slowly and attacked in the second half. He played a game today that would have had the commentators having kittens, such was its complexity; it was a brutal game and the sheer force of calculation needed from the Russian was incredible. He must be gutted not quite to have won.

Topalov v Kramnik tomorrow morning. Quick draw, then?

No chance.

More chance of Mark Hughes getting an invite to Arsène Wenger's house for tea and toast. These two fellas were the lead figures of the Toiletgate fiasco when they played for the 2006 World Championship crown. They have barely played in the seven and a half years since and most of those games have been exhibition quickplay or blindfold games. They don't shake hands and there are no quick "grandmaster" draws.

It is entirely possible that these two great players will cancel each other out. In fact, that's the most likely outcome. But it isn't the same likelihood as it would be for two other players in this position, as both will want to win. Both have really been hammering the opening preparation in the lead up to the comp (that is easy to see based on the variations they have been playing so far), but I can see an explosive game with a really intense flavour. They have a rest day on Thursday, so they can go hell for leather if they want.

Topalov is 4.333 to win with White; Kramnik is 5.2 to win with Black. I can find a case for backing both of them (this is a really tight market with just 4% over round - the draw is 1.615). Of the two, I prefer Kramnik as a better endgame player, but I'm essentially opposing the draw. Only other bookie I can find is Bwon, who are shorter on both decisive outcomes and I think they're right. If my maths is right, you're basically betting 6/4 on one of them winning if you back both.

If we pick one, we gamble with Kramnik. I'm only advocating £10 anyway; individual chess game betting is high variance stuff. I'm just not persuaded by the size of the draw price.

Happy to take thoughts.



Think the game starts at 9am tomorrow. My availability tomorrow is likely to be very limited.

I know Fred isn't on, but anyone who has chosen to go with me might be interested to know that the game is less than an hour old and completely mad. Pieces everywhere. Kramnik has decided to go full out for a win. The computers say he's made a mistake in doing so, but this is one of those situations where a human has much more difficulty than a computer in calculating all the variations.

Draw seems the third most likely result right now.