Tips for Tikay

[sharky_uk]

Kristoffer Broberg can't be a bad EW bet at 200/1 12345678...

2nd at last week's Scottish Open
12th in France the previous week
3rd in the Irish Open in June

Any thoughts on that one?

[bobby1]

...that is the whole point though Phil. The Betfred 8-places means their place book is about 580% and the very liquid Betfair market tells me the "correct" price. If the prices on Betfair are so terrible and not correct then how come all the experts on golf are not just backing all the ones that are too long and laying all the ones that are too short and thus causing the prices to move to the "correct" price?

 Even a complete moron who knows nothing about golf like me can make good bets on this one.

But how wrong do you think they are, clearly people have been laying Poulter because as you said he has drifted from 60 last weekend to 80 today and you estimate he will get bigger. Do you have a view of why Rory has drifted from 16 and 16.5 over the weekend and is now 18 on there? Rory can now be backed at 18/1 6 places which is an arb on the win part at this moment so he should 100% be included as at least a win bet if you are using the criteria that if we beat the Bf market we should bet, but why is he drifting?


There is a big difference between making good bets from exploiting enhanced place terms by looking at Betfair and having a list of potential good ew bets that you can whittle down into a stronger list by using the info that you wont have on a Monday night. That is exactly why the time that the scrape is done will determine bets that are different on some days to the ones selected the day before and the day after.

Poulter bet would have been a bet yesterday afternoon and not today, is that the best way to spend Ton'y cash?

[bobby1]

not specifically yet

the pitch for the second test is shown to the left of the groundsman



or this one, people standing on it

Click to see full-size image.

48 hours to go, depends after the debacle of the Nottingham pitch whether they take a conscious decision to leave some grass on.

so you wouldn't dream of having a bet on a Monday night then until you had much more information available to you?

[bobby1]

I am the 2nd biggest winner here after Channing 

Get over yourself please

There is nothing positive in the post I replied to, it is basically you are an idiot and your methods are useless.  I was just pointing out I wasn't and they weren't.  I think that is fair given bobby is well into double figures on these type of posts against me.

Apologies if it didn't come across the way I intended.  

lol, there is a reason why there are so many posts from me disagreeing with some of your stuff.

[Tonji]

Commonwealth Games fast approaching, starting on the 23rd. Fred & its various experts should possibly be involved in the various niche markets.

Noticed PP has Rugby

http://www.paddypower.com/bet/commonwealth-games-2014/rugby-union/commonwealth-games-7s?ev_oc_grp_ids=365934

Tighty & Hector?

[bobby1]

Kristoffer Broberg can't be a bad EW bet at 200/1 12345678...

2nd at last week's Scottish Open
12th in France the previous week
3rd in the Irish Open in June

Any thoughts on that one?

This would be a big step up in class even after those good results mate but he is certainly playing well. The issue you might have is as it stands he could end up having the tough side of the draw given the current forecast for Friday. It's still to early to really know that for sure tho.

[Bad Beat]

...that is the whole point though Phil. The Betfred 8-places means their place book is about 580% and the very liquid Betfair market tells me the "correct" price. If the prices on Betfair are so terrible and not correct then how come all the experts on golf are not just backing all the ones that are too long and laying all the ones that are too short and thus causing the prices to move to the "correct" price?

 Even a complete moron who knows nothing about golf like me can make good bets on this one.

But how wrong do you think they are, clearly people have been laying Poulter because as you said he has drifted from 60 last weekend to 80 today and you estimate he will get bigger. Do you have a view of why Rory has drifted from 16 and 16.5 over the weekend and is now 18 on there? Rory can now be backed at 18/1 6 places which is an arb on the win part at this moment so he should 100% be included as at least a win bet if you are using the criteria that if we beat the Bf market we should bet, but why is he drifting?


There is a big difference between making good bets from exploiting enhanced place terms by looking at Betfair and having a list of potential good ew bets that you can whittle down into a stronger list by using the info that you wont have on a Monday night. That is exactly why the time that the scrape is done will determine bets that are different on some days to the ones selected the day before and the day after.

Poulter bet would have been a bet yesterday afternoon and not today, is that the best way to spend Ton'y cash?

 I'm confused...I'm pretty sure the reason Rory drifted from 16-16.5 to the current price of 18.5-19 is because he shot a 78 on day two. We could now back him at 18/1 with Stan James and SportingBet both of whom offer 123456. Betfair are 18.5-19 and 6.2-6.4 12345 so I'm pretty sure this would not be suggested as a great fixed-odds bet by anyone.

 The reason that Poulter is the most volatile player of the 156 quoted is because nobody is really sure if he is 30% fit or 90% fit. We all know he is not 100% fit. I personally would not suggest that we have a bet there and guess.

 Maybe Rickie Fowler might be a better example. We can bet 12345678 at 40/1. He is 42-44 on Betfair. The 12345 place price is 13-13.5. We can profitably bet him IF the price of 42-44 is correct. To say it is not correct you would have to argue that the whole of the market on Betfair has analysed his price and got it wrong, that you have inside knowledge about him that the market has not got or that the market has moved temporarily in his favour and it's sure to drift back. If you believe those things to be true then laying him on Betfair is the way to exploit this opportunity.

 The fact that you watch more golf through the year than I do does not stop this being an opportunity. One of the reasons I only come along for the majors is tht this is the only time when these great opportunities arise. I believe this is 100%v what Tony's money should be gambled on, but whether it is or isn't it is 100% what I shall be doing with mine. Fowler was the first person I picked out of thin air as an example by the way but on inspection it does seem his price is not too volatile at all.

[doubleup]

I think we are all in a free bar arguing about the best way to get drunk.

I personally agree with Phil and would rather wait till the weather/draw is clear, but Doobs picking random bods who aren't that far out of line with Betfair simply must be profitable because of the favourable each-way terms.

[TightEnd]

not specifically yet

the pitch for the second test is shown to the left of the groundsman



or this one, people standing on it

Click to see full-size image.

48 hours to go, depends after the debacle of the Nottingham pitch whether they take a conscious decision to leave some grass on.

so you wouldn't dream of having a bet on a Monday night then until you had much more information available to you?

well i might, same as with any ante-post market. i'd be aware though that the variables are many (pitch, weather, toss, team selections) that could change perceptions of "value" quite markedly on the day

[Kmac84]

FWIW I think the issue with DOOBS is his matter of fact way he mosts.  Clearly lacks interpersonal skills. 

As a side note a mate of mine who is quite savvy on golf has given me:

Jimmy Walker
Adam Scott
Jim Furky
Jamie Donaldson. 

I know nothing about Golf are any of those worth punting?

[TightEnd]

Commonwealth Games fast approaching, starting on the 23rd. Fred & its various experts should possibly be involved in the various niche markets.

Noticed PP has Rugby

http://www.paddypower.com/bet/commonwealth-games-2014/rugby-union/commonwealth-games-7s?ev_oc_grp_ids=365934

Tighty & Hector?

had a look at this

NZ, squad on http://www.allblacks.com/Teams/Sevens are the best team in the IRB Sevens year just concluded

winning four of the last five tournaments with their commonwealth games squad +/- a few

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2013%E2%80%9314_IRB_Sevens_World_Series


the problem here is that the teams are young and inexperienced, so to go against NZ is quite tricky and suggests they should be odds on. Sevens is a game where familiarity of partnerships, patterns of play etc count for a lot. As do the physical skills that a team of 20-22yo New Zealanders tend to have relative to their counterparts

i don't have the knowledge of the other squads to pick a springer, i am afraid

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rugby_sevens_at_the_2014_Commonwealth_Games  is the format

[peejaytwo]

I think we are all in a free bar arguing about the best way to get drunk.

I personally agree with Phil and would rather wait till the weather/draw is clear, but Doobs picking random bods who aren't that far out of line with Betfair simply must be profitable because of the favourable each-way terms.

Agree with this. But may be even more profitable on weds evening.

[Doobs]

Marvellous. Ollie has been having a busy life lately and although he has done work and had bets on the Open, (which he has shared with me), he won't be doing the event for us, which leaves me writing something which will appear at around noon tomorrow. It will be free for registered users.

 On the subject of Poulter. It seemed to be pretty well known that he was having a problem, (obv not in the Doobs household), and his Betfair price has drifted in the last 5 days from 50/1 to 80/1 and from 12/1 to 16/1 12345. I'm assuming that not too many pundits will tip him to win as it would be embarrassing to them to suggest someone who just has a nightmare or maybe even pulls out. I have read the Open blogs/previews/thoughts of around 12 people this morning and not one has even marginally suggested he has a chance. It would seem likely the price could drift to 100/1 and 22/1 top 5.

 Given that the whole point of what Doobs is doing here is that a Betfair market that will have £4m matched on it by 6am Thursday is liquid enough to be a totally accurate reflection of the chances of each player and therefore by using the knowledge of that accurate market to exploit the inefficiencies of the place market thrown up by firms offering eight places as a loss-leader we should make +ev bets, is it really right to simply say "We can't back this guy or this guy because he has a bad wrist". Surely the market is well aware of that (even if Doobs isn't) and that is why he is 80/1 and not the 45/1 he probably would have been if healthy.

 Is there no price that we can back Poulter? Is it possible the market has overeacted?

 On a side-note, it is definitely possible that the Betfair market can lead us to poor bets imo. If for example Steve Palmer was on an amazing run and his tips became as important to the market as the tips of Hugh Taylor in horse racing, (to take an example), then perhaps they would be massively overbet and someone who was 33/1 on Monday gets tipped and is now 20/1 on Betfair. Just because one firm who missed the early gamble is still 22/1 I would argue that this is a situation where the Doobs method does not throw up a good bet and I would give this one the swerve.

 Anyway...just thinking aloud in between reading.

 

With respect Neil, I read your last preview for the US Open and the selections you made were by doing exactly the same thing as Doobs but later in the week and again with respect I don't think you would ever argue that golf was your strongest sport. So the point about having bets by just looking at the BF market still stands really. There will no doubt be good spots to take advantage of the place terms but backing Poulter at 66/1 6 places because he is 70 on BF doesn't fit into the portfolio of good bets if Poulter then drifts to 100 on BF. You are left with a bet you placed when there was info available that might have stopped you making that bet.

My point is always that Doobs is wasting bets by making the same mistakes each time, I don't really care what Doobs does with his money tbh but I do care what happens to Tony's money. There are plenty of good golf judges on here that could spend 200 quid between them using their own judgement and still take advantage of the good each way terms too.

I have had about 20 bets.  I think the average expected margin was about 15%.  If in that 20 bets I have got the price of one wrong by 20%, then I am now getting a return of 14% in the long run.  Throwing out all the work because this is sometimes going to happen seems an unduly risk averse way of looking at the World.  You should be looking at the whole group of bets and not unduly focusing on the bad one.  

The draw is the same, if you assume that a bad draw means that the odds on 10 of your golfers are too short by 20% then the others 10 are going to be too long by 20% on average.  I know it won't be exactly that this week, and some weeks we are going to get more bad draws than good, but overall I don't really need to worry because bad luck evens out in the long run.  Likewise if someone picks up an injury between now and Thursday it is all a bit swings and roundabouts that it will either negatively affect me or positively do so.

As it was Monday was a far better day than Wednesday for me personally, and I am happy that I can just put down the overall difference to variance.  

If we have good judges here and they want to post bets I would welcome that.  What we seem to have instead though is my bets getting stopped and people sending stuff by PM.  Not sure how that is a good thing.  

I probably won't be doing a trawl for here again, from memory when BaldFred has made golf offers before, their prices were marked lower to compensate, so I could be spending an hour or two to just find a couple more bets for me, and that is a bad use of my time.  

[TightEnd]

FWIW I think the issue with DOOBS is his matter of fact way he mosts.  Clearly lacks interpersonal skills. 

As a side note a mate of mine who is quite savvy on golf has given me:

Jimmy Walker
Adam Scott
Jim Furky
Jamie Donaldson. 

I know nothing about Golf are any of those worth punting?

this is too harsh. In my experience he doesn't lack inter-personal skills. Doobs has been incredibly helpful to the thread in lots of ways, not just publically

This thread works best when everyone is working together, whether it be recommending, dispensing knowledge, trying to find angles etc

Doobs doesn't need me defending him, but your comment made me cringe. You won't find many who contribute as he does to trying to achieve what i outline above. Don't care if his methods are correct, incorrect, too early or whatever

[bobby1]

...that is the whole point though Phil. The Betfred 8-places means their place book is about 580% and the very liquid Betfair market tells me the "correct" price. If the prices on Betfair are so terrible and not correct then how come all the experts on golf are not just backing all the ones that are too long and laying all the ones that are too short and thus causing the prices to move to the "correct" price?

 Even a complete moron who knows nothing about golf like me can make good bets on this one.

But how wrong do you think they are, clearly people have been laying Poulter because as you said he has drifted from 60 last weekend to 80 today and you estimate he will get bigger. Do you have a view of why Rory has drifted from 16 and 16.5 over the weekend and is now 18 on there? Rory can now be backed at 18/1 6 places which is an arb on the win part at this moment so he should 100% be included as at least a win bet if you are using the criteria that if we beat the Bf market we should bet, but why is he drifting?


There is a big difference between making good bets from exploiting enhanced place terms by looking at Betfair and having a list of potential good ew bets that you can whittle down into a stronger list by using the info that you wont have on a Monday night. That is exactly why the time that the scrape is done will determine bets that are different on some days to the ones selected the day before and the day after.

Poulter bet would have been a bet yesterday afternoon and not today, is that the best way to spend Ton'y cash?

 I'm confused...I'm pretty sure the reason Rory drifted from 16-16.5 to the current price of 18.5-19 is because he shot a 78 on day two. We could now back him at 18/1 with Stan James and SportingBet both of whom offer 123456. Betfair are 18.5-19 and 6.2-6.4 12345 so I'm pretty sure this would not be suggested as a great fixed-odds bet by anyone.

 The reason that Poulter is the most volatile player of the 156 quoted is because nobody is really sure if he is 30% fit or 90% fit. We all know he is not 100% fit. I personally would not suggest that we have a bet there and guess.

 Maybe Rickie Fowler might be a better example. We can bet 12345678 at 40/1. He is 42-44 on Betfair. The 12345 place price is 13-13.5. We can profitably bet him IF the price of 42-44 is correct. To say it is not correct you would have to argue that the whole of the market on Betfair has analysed his price and got it wrong, that you have inside knowledge about him that the market has not got or that the market has moved temporarily in his favour and it's sure to drift back. If you believe those things to be true then laying him on Betfair is the way to exploit this opportunity.

 The fact that you watch more golf through the year than I do does not stop this being an opportunity. One of the reasons I only come along for the majors is tht this is the only time when these great opportunities arise. I believe this is 100%v what Tony's money should be gambled on, but whether it is or isn't it is 100% what I shall be doing with mine. Fowler was the first person I picked out of thin air as an example by the way but on inspection it does seem his price is not too volatile at all.

I'm assuming you have misread what I said re Rory, at the time of posting he was 18/1 fixed odds and 18.5 to lay on BF, so the win part was an arb at that time. This would clearly be a good win bet at 18/1 at that time if you are just using the BF market as a guide wouldn't it?

Rory was still 16.5 over the weekend on there. I would suggest there are 2 reasons why he has drifted further in the last few days, one he has said in interview that following good rounds with bad rounds has become  a mental thing. That interview is now freely available so everyone can now use that piece of info as they see fit, which they didn't have yesterday.

The other is a more technical point really  but it is something that's been posted on here before and that is his ability to play in winds and especially cross winds. He is known as a pretty bad cross winds player and has also struggled in windy conditions recently. It seems there is a long stretch of hole's at Hoylake that play cross wind if the wind blows in the usual direction across these holes, it is around 2/3rds of the course. So what I think might be happening is people are seeing firmer weather forecasts for Friday afternoon with rain and strong winds forecast and coupled that with Rory's troubles on Fridays and realised there is a chance he might well be out in the worst of it and in winds he does not play well in. Now he might play really well on the first morning and be in a position to get through Friday and of course the fcast might change.

I saw this stat last week and I think it included the first 2 days of the Scottish Open, it was a day by day scoring total for Rory over his last xx rounds (I didn't write down the number of rounds)

Day1  -51
Day 2 +9
Day 3 -19
Day 4 -20

So that would add weight to the thoughts that Friday could well be a day that will show him in his worst light in conditions he doesn't like.

Last night Rory was in the list of good ew bets at 16/1, only a few hours ago he would have been a good win bet at 18/1 because that price was bigger than the BF win price. As we speak now he has drifted to 20 on BF so neither of those bets are now as good as they seemed at the time, that's is because more info has been dissected and the market has moved even more. So even 2 hours ago simply looking at BF and using that market as a guide to a win bet on Rory at 18/1 would now be bad value compared with the current BF price. So 2 hours ago a scrape would have picked that as a bet, now it wouldn't.

On the Fowler front I agree with you but I have also agreed that some of them have to value with the enhanced ew terms and you have used just about the nut best example now. Fowler has shown he can play in bad weather and has a very nice piece of recent form, he is also due to be on course on Friday afternoon tho so again, he might well drift if that fcast holds. The thing is tho Neil you will probably still be able to nick 40/1 with enhanced place terms 2morrow if he remains 42-44 on BF and have a more solid fcast, but would you want to be on 2morrow if he drifts to 46-48 on BF or would you then be able to find better selections then?