Tips for Tikay

[BigAdz]

The attritional nature of the play offs has proven a good hunting ground for those that take a week off. I get the impression Rory looked a tad jadded, when unable to capitalise on a fine third round, when you would expect him to have polished them off.

I think of the big names Sergio and GMAC are off a week off and I have included them, I would support Mr Porters recommend.

FWIW,I cant believe he paid little interest in last weeks events re Mr Gallagher.

[Chompy]

Poshies v Port Vale

Both teams to score, 5/6 Laddies.

Anyone that saw last night's antics v L'Orient will know why.

Burgess and Brisley in at the moment in place of Baldwin (injured) and Zakuani (Dr Congo), and Smith playing LB instead of RB because of Nthle's red card last weekend.

Same old Posh at the moment, plenty of goals in us and almost certain to concede. Tom Pope ftw.

This is a twos on shot with me. Rec £60 @ 5/6

[tikay]

The attritional nature of the play offs has proven a good hunting ground for those that take a week off. I get the impression Rory looked a tad jadded, when unable to capitalise on a fine third round, when you would expect him to have polished them off.

I think of the big names Sergio and GMAC are off a week off and I have included them, I would support Mr Porters recommend.

FWIW,I cant believe he paid little interest in last weeks events re Mr Gallagher.

I'm not against the Recommend, not at all, just putting some stuff out there for the purposes of rumination. I back G-Mac almost blind anyway, or do when I go through my intermittent golf punting phases. 

As to whether he paid much attention to Mr Gallagher's thought processes, I've just found what G-mac himself wrote on the BBC Sport website....


It might have been the week when my Ryder Cup spot was finally confirmed but, to be honest, much of my attention was elsewhere and for the very best of reasons.

Since becoming a father for the first time last Monday, my mind has been 99% on the new mum, baby and nappies. We have called our daughter Vale Esme and emotionally it's still all kind of sinking in.

There's a switch inside me that's flicked and I know things have changed forever.

There was, though, that 1% which led me to flicking on the European Tour app every now and again to see how Stephen Gallacher was getting on in the Italian Open.

I suppose a pinch of salt may be necessary.

[TightEnd]

Daily Report

Loss on Month £36.32

Outstanding Bets £4335.31

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0Aia1Hxq-NDNWdFk3UmlTSXMzTjRBTVNfOWRndVFsZHc&usp=drive_web#gid=29

No bets completed yesterday

In the Basketball world cup the USA won their third game in a row beating New Zealand 98-71. I noted the basketball team do Haka's too

Click to see full-size image.

Lithuania lost though, 82-75 to Austria. It looks like it is four through from each group so no dramas for this bet yet

http://www.fiba.com/basketballworldcup/2014/groups

In baseball the Orioles won and the Yankees lost to stretch the Orioles lead in the division to 9.5 games with 25 games of the regular season to go

Click to see full-size image.

The Yankees need to win 17 of their last 26 to make our season unders on them a loser

In the Central the Royals and the Tigers won to keep the Royals 0.5 games ahead in a race that may go down to the final games

this article explains the situation, and the underdog nature of the bet http://www.foxsports.com/mlb/just-a-bit-outside/baseball-joe/blog/odds-still-on-your-side-royals-fans-090214

Click to see full-size image.

Strictly come dancing begins this weekend, and the opening programme was filmed last night. Or man looking resplendent, and he is now 6/1 third favourite

Click to see full-size image.

How many of this motley crew could you name?

Click to see full-size image.

In football last night Guernsey continued their disappointing start to the season with a 3-1 loss at Corinthian Casuals. Guernsey have conceded the second most goals in the Ryman one south so far.

The Ryder cup wildcards were named, with Europe at 4/6ish the shortest favourite for any Ryder cup of any team since 1999. Value in the away team minus the Tger anti-team distractions at 7/4?

Click to see full-size image.

England continued their untroubled preparation for the Cricket world cup at Edgbaston

Click to see full-size image.

Watford appointed a new manager

Click to see full-size image.

the nfl season starts tomorrow with a cracker, green bay at seattle. Remember what happened the last time they met?

Click to see full-size image.

[tikay]

Thanks Rich.

The Yankees need to win 17 of their last 26 to make our season unders on them a loser

That one is looking better & better. They need to win in excess of 65% of their remaining schedule.

[arbboy]

Graeme Mcdowell is part of the field that kicks off the BMW Championships (the third leg of the Fedex Cup playoffs) this week.

He has been relatively strong recently with a few top tens and decent performances in the majors. Looking back over the last 18 months he has actually won on 4 occasions.

Cherry Hills golf course should be all about accuracy with thick rough around the greens. He ranks in the top 20 on the PGA tour for driving accuracy this year and this type of course should suit him.

He is also, in golfing terms, well rested. He opted not to play last week when the majority of the field did. They didn't finish until Monday and have then had to travel 2000+ miles.

Then we have the Nappy Factor. He became a father for the first time just over a week ago.

55/1 with 365. 5 places. £7.50EW?

Boy or girl? Nappy factor is much stronger if the first chIld is a boy.  Assume it's a girl from tikays post.

[tikay]

Graeme Mcdowell is part of the field that kicks off the BMW Championships (the third leg of the Fedex Cup playoffs) this week.

He has been relatively strong recently with a few top tens and decent performances in the majors. Looking back over the last 18 months he has actually won on 4 occasions.

Cherry Hills golf course should be all about accuracy with thick rough around the greens. He ranks in the top 20 on the PGA tour for driving accuracy this year and this type of course should suit him.

He is also, in golfing terms, well rested. He opted not to play last week when the majority of the field did. They didn't finish until Monday and have then had to travel 2000+ miles.

Then we have the Nappy Factor. He became a father for the first time just over a week ago.

55/1 with 365. 5 places. £7.50EW?

Boy or girl? Nappy factor is much stronger if the first chIld is a boy.

Ha!

Since becoming a father for the first time last Monday, my mind has been 99% on the new mum, baby and nappies. We have called our daughter Vale Esme and emotionally it's still all kind of sinking in.


His price should drift now.

[TightEnd]

Going to try one more cycling bet see if I can get one on the board.

Wednesday 24th September - UCI World Cycling Championships Elite Mens Individual Time Trial.

Paddy Power - Fabian Cancellara to win @ 7/1 - I recommend a punt for a tenner.

Tony Martin is hot favourite to win this as the guy is just a machine, however today in the Tour of Spain time trail, Cancellara completed the back end of the course very marginally faster than Tony Martin which suggests he might have the kind of form to challenge Martin at the worlds and if anyone can beat him it's Cancellara at his very best.

Martin is just not worth backing at 1/2 but at 7/1 Cancellara looks a good bet.

do any of the cycling people have a view on this

Martin rarely loses a TT, so 1/2 could be an instance where a shortie is correct, no?

Cancellara has more of the feel of a cover bet than an outright?

[TightEnd]

One last one from me pre season. Wasn't going to put it up because of all the exposure, but it's the best value bet I have seen but truly a banzai.

Gayle to top score £5 ew 350/1 with b365

https://m.oddschecker.com/m#football-english-premier-league-top-goalscorer

Explained before how many chances Palace had without goals. Jerome probs at fault. Gayle hardly played but proved to be deadly with what little gametime he had. Also by the end of the season the pressure released off him and he was much more potent.

He may not start for us and have to work his way past Campbell, but he could eventually usher him out of the team with better finishing. The worry also would be a player like Wickham coming in via transfer (archetypal target man) that may not give either Campbell or Gayle a chance but that is more than incorporated into the price.

Altidore is 200/1 ffs with a goal to his name in 30 last season, while Gayle got 7 in extremely limited gametime especially when we were playing better under Pulis.

17 goals may well get the ew part of the bet through, and that isn't completely impossible.

My view came true about Gayle possibly getting a starting berth, and to be honest it has happened sooner than I thought, and he already has a goal to his name. Add to that the fact that Kevin Doyle has been brought in as a probable bench warmer/late sub, rather than a more potent signing that would challenge Gayle more, the bet looks in good shape. Campbell will be pushing hard, but I hope Gayle takes off.

Palace look capable of goals scoring 5 in 3 games, and especially in the last game, missed a few more chances that should have gone in. Hopefully a good environment for Gayle to rack up the goals.

On the injury worry front, he should be back to start at home against Burnley.

The price is still the same with Bet365 at 350/1, you need to look at the ew bet here, as you get effectively a 87.5/1 bet that Gayle scores around 17 or more (that secured top 4 last year), and at those odds it is massive value.

For comparison of the value, Ings is 200/1, Tom Ince is 250/1 and Matic is 200/1

I know you have trouble getting on with them. I have a fiver each way for you if you want it.

i know its only a fiver each way, and 350-1 and as ever i enjoy the write ups but...

Gayle scored 7 in 23 last year in what will (probably) be a better Palace team than this year (Pulis, not Warnock)

We don't know what direction Warnock will go in for strikers

Can we really see him getting near 20 goals to collect even each way?

I can't.

[Tal]

Thanks Rich.

The Yankees need to win 17 of their last 26 to make our season unders on them a loser

That one is looking better & better. They need to win in excess of 65% of their remaining schedule.

Is there likely to be a bit of a surge in the last few games? I'm thinking primarily of Derek Jeter, as he's retiring at the end of the season. A bit of a Ray Lewis/Sir Alex Ferguson effect?

[TightEnd]

Graeme Mcdowell is part of the field that kicks off the BMW Championships (the third leg of the Fedex Cup playoffs) this week.

He has been relatively strong recently with a few top tens and decent performances in the majors. Looking back over the last 18 months he has actually won on 4 occasions.

Cherry Hills golf course should be all about accuracy with thick rough around the greens. He ranks in the top 20 on the PGA tour for driving accuracy this year and this type of course should suit him.

He is also, in golfing terms, well rested. He opted not to play last week when the majority of the field did. They didn't finish until Monday and have then had to travel 2000+ miles.

Then we have the Nappy Factor. He became a father for the first time just over a week ago.

55/1 with 365. 5 places. £7.50EW?

Bet365 is no go

Coral is 60-1 paying 4 places, or we need a helpful reader to assist.

60-1 top 4?

[TightEnd]

Poshies v Port Vale

Both teams to score, 5/6 Laddies.

Anyone that saw last night's antics v L'Orient will know why.

Burgess and Brisley in at the moment in place of Baldwin (injured) and Zakuani (Dr Congo), and Smith playing LB instead of RB because of Nthle's red card last weekend.

Same old Posh at the moment, plenty of goals in us and almost certain to concede. Tom Pope ftw.

This is a twos on shot with me. Rec £60 @ 5/6

A straightforward one

Yes
Peterborough v Port Vale
Singles - Both Teams to Score 5/6
1 line @ £60.00 per line
Total Stake £60.00
Potential Return £110.00
Receipt No: O/142640973/0000729

[vegaslover]

Going to try one more cycling bet see if I can get one on the board.

Wednesday 24th September - UCI World Cycling Championships Elite Mens Individual Time Trial.

Paddy Power - Fabian Cancellara to win @ 7/1 - I recommend a punt for a tenner.

Tony Martin is hot favourite to win this as the guy is just a machine, however today in the Tour of Spain time trail, Cancellara completed the back end of the course very marginally faster than Tony Martin which suggests he might have the kind of form to challenge Martin at the worlds and if anyone can beat him it's Cancellara at his very best.

Martin is just not worth backing at 1/2 but at 7/1 Cancellara looks a good bet.

do any of the cycling people have a view on this

Martin rarely loses a TT, so 1/2 could be an instance where a shortie is correct, no?

Cancellara has more of the feel of a cover bet than an outright?

I like it as an e/w bet.
Martin probs should be shorter than he is, he not been at his absolute best this tour, or the last, but may well be just saving a bit for the worlds.

[Doobs]

Graeme Mcdowell is part of the field that kicks off the BMW Championships (the third leg of the Fedex Cup playoffs) this week.

He has been relatively strong recently with a few top tens and decent performances in the majors. Looking back over the last 18 months he has actually won on 4 occasions.

Cherry Hills golf course should be all about accuracy with thick rough around the greens. He ranks in the top 20 on the PGA tour for driving accuracy this year and this type of course should suit him.

He is also, in golfing terms, well rested. He opted not to play last week when the majority of the field did. They didn't finish until Monday and have then had to travel 2000+ miles.

Then we have the Nappy Factor. He became a father for the first time just over a week ago.

55/1 with 365. 5 places. £7.50EW?

Boy or girl? Nappy factor is much stronger if the first chIld is a boy.  Assume it's a girl from tikays post.

Is there any real stats on this?   I know after my 2 I was absolutely battered for 2 months.  I may have been happier, but I was barely functioning, and think each time my work really suffered.  I guess we probably didn't have as much help as GMac, but even then...

Isn't this just one of those things that is just going to happen every so often and when it does people go wow, nappy factor...

Edit http://www.telegraph.co.uk/sport/golf/tigerwoods/4580904/Son-could-make-Tiger-Woods-even-better.html.  Can't see it worked out well for Tiger, but some more detail there.  Big difference between 3 months after a birth and a week though.

[redarmi]

Graeme Mcdowell is part of the field that kicks off the BMW Championships (the third leg of the Fedex Cup playoffs) this week.

He has been relatively strong recently with a few top tens and decent performances in the majors. Looking back over the last 18 months he has actually won on 4 occasions.

Cherry Hills golf course should be all about accuracy with thick rough around the greens. He ranks in the top 20 on the PGA tour for driving accuracy this year and this type of course should suit him.

He is also, in golfing terms, well rested. He opted not to play last week when the majority of the field did. They didn't finish until Monday and have then had to travel 2000+ miles.

Then we have the Nappy Factor. He became a father for the first time just over a week ago.

55/1 with 365. 5 places. £7.50EW?

Boy or girl? Nappy factor is much stronger if the first chIld is a boy.  Assume it's a girl from tikays post.

Is there any real stats on this?   I know after my 2 I was absolutely battered for 2 months.  I may have been happier, but I was barely functioning, and think each time my work really suffered.  I guess we probably didn't have as much help as GMac, but even then...

Isn't this just one of those things that is just going to happen every so often and when it does people go wow, nappy factor...

Edit http://www.telegraph.co.uk/sport/golf/tigerwoods/4580904/Son-could-make-Tiger-Woods-even-better.html.  Can't see it worked out well for Tiger, but some more detail there.  Big difference between 3 months after a birth and a week though.

On the flip side since mine was born I have been a lot more focussed than I have ever been.  There is definitely the distraction factor but it gave me a real boost and got me through situations where I might previously have given up or taken an easier option.