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Author Topic: Tips for Tikay  (Read 8603214 times)
Tonji
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« Reply #87375 on: September 20, 2014, 04:05:28 PM »

Looked at the road race yet CWS?

Form riders from the Vuelta or a one day specialist?

Of course I have. Such a hard one to call. With a decent climb about 5 km from the finish line, it's hard to tell if the pure sprinters will be able to last till the finish line, or if someone will manage to jump from the bunch and hold on for victory. Personally, since John Degenkolb ended up in hospital, I've decided to back against the favourites (although at 15-1, and assuming he recovers in time, he might end up being a steal).

If it does come down to a bunch sprint, Simon Gerrans has to be the man. Unless Nacer Bouhanni survives the hills that is. Then he'll be the man. But I get the feeling that a sprint finish will be unlikely, given the fact that if anyone who isn't that fast wants to be world champion, they'll have to attack. And there will be plenty of attacks.

The ones that I fancy right now are Matteo Trentin and Borut Bozic. One a decent sprinter, the other a classics specialist. Probably won't win, but definitely a solid each-way bet at the prices. I like Greg van Avermaet as well. Wouldn't mind hearing your (or anyone else's) thoughts.

Having a gander this afternoon.

Pretty sure I read Trentin has ruled himself out of the Italian team. Italy generally ride well as a team, always present in numbers on the final circuits, in the Worlds. Team confirmed late normally.

Like GVA (certainly in form) & price top 4, but Belgium seem to be going with Gilbert & Boonen as leaders.
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« Reply #87376 on: September 20, 2014, 04:07:03 PM »

salute freddys!

First visit in many weeks & too many pages to catch up after my summer hols & business commitments.

Anyhow, Cycling Worlds up next, with Team Time Trial on sunday.

 Click to see full-size image.


Bookies have OPQS marginal favourites ahead of Orica. Personally I would be the opposite.

OPQS are a tad weaker from last year, without Chavanel, Velits and Vandewalle. Replaced by Boonen & two youngsters. Last year's Gold was won by OPQS, less than a second ahead of Orica.  The enormous engine of Tony Martin is huge advantage, but over 57km a well drilled specialized TTT squad should be ahead imo.

Orica are considered the TTT specialists. Winning the TTT at the Giro this year & at the 2013 Tour. Five of the six remain from last year, with the inclusion of Howson,  current U23 ITT world champion, the team looks stronger. Add in the fact the team has spent the past few weeks in Spain training for this specific event.

http://www.oddschecker.com/cycling/world-championships/mens-team-time-trial/winning-team

9/4 with billymountain looks worth an investment. CWS has his finger on the pulse of cycling, a second opinion helpful I think, as I've not been all over the cycling news as much as usual.

Personally I can't get on with all available funds transferred to my daughter who's off to Uni at the end of the month!

price gone

I agree that Orica-GreenEdge should be favourites, and that 9/4 is a good price. Just that it's Tony Martin on the other team. How can you back against him? I couldn't pull the trigger personally.

I wouldn't be taking under 2/1 right?

I wasn't around to do 9/4 earlier
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« Reply #87377 on: September 20, 2014, 04:07:26 PM »


who do you fancy?
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Tonji
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« Reply #87378 on: September 20, 2014, 04:09:47 PM »

Looked at the road race yet CWS?

Form riders from the Vuelta or a one day specialist?

Of course I have. Such a hard one to call. With a decent climb about 5 km from the finish line, it's hard to tell if the pure sprinters will be able to last till the finish line, or if someone will manage to jump from the bunch and hold on for victory. Personally, since John Degenkolb ended up in hospital, I've decided to back against the favourites (although at 15-1, and assuming he recovers in time, he might end up being a steal).

If it does come down to a bunch sprint, Simon Gerrans has to be the man. Unless Nacer Bouhanni survives the hills that is. Then he'll be the man. But I get the feeling that a sprint finish will be unlikely, given the fact that if anyone who isn't that fast wants to be world champion, they'll have to attack. And there will be plenty of attacks.

The ones that I fancy right now are Matteo Trentin and Borut Bozic. One a decent sprinter, the other a classics specialist. Probably won't win, but definitely a solid each-way bet at the prices. I like Greg van Avermaet as well. Wouldn't mind hearing your (or anyone else's) thoughts.

Having a gander this afternoon.

Pretty sure I read Trentin has ruled himself out of the Italian team. Italy generally ride well as a team, always present in numbers on the final circuits, in the Worlds. Team confirmed late normally.

Like GVA (certainly in form) & price top 4, but Belgium seem to be going with Gilbert & Boonen as leaders.

Liking GVA even more he just won Primus Classic Impanis...

Not a fred bet, but dabbled with Tikay's mob 20/1 EW top 4
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Tonji
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« Reply #87379 on: September 20, 2014, 04:15:44 PM »

@ Tighty 9/4 had some edge. Bookies coming round to Orica & OPQS joint favs.

Unlikely, but if the womens TTT is priced up anything 7/4 or better for Specialized-lululemon is a bet.
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« Reply #87380 on: September 20, 2014, 04:16:32 PM »

@ Tighty 9/4 had some edge. Bookies coming round to Orica & OPQS joint favs.

Unlikely, but if the womens TTT is priced up anything 7/4 or better for Specialized-lululemon is a bet.

ok please prod us if it does
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« Reply #87381 on: September 20, 2014, 04:24:25 PM »


Had no idea, just was a ridic punter-friendly book.
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« Reply #87382 on: September 20, 2014, 05:33:47 PM »

I'm interested in Papis Cisse to be top Newcastle scorer next season. He's due back from injury September at the latest, have been some stories that he'll be fit for the start of the season, tho he's not been seen in preseason so imagine that won't happen. He'll miss a few games.

Looking at the summer signings, Newcastle have signed a lot of support striker types, without any out and out goalscorer. Cisse was poor last season, never got a long run in the side and was a sub for a lot of it. He does score goals in clutches tho, and as his season showed before that, he's quality on his day.

I'd expect the top scorer to only get around 12 next season. What price would u make Cisse without looking?

(Newcastle's top two scorers from last year, Cabaye and Remy, have gone. Riviere got 14 in 44 for Monaco last season, got 9 in 44 and 17 in 73 for his previous clubs. De Jong got 57 in 168 for Ajax,  9 in 28 last year. Ayoze got 17 in 50 for Tenerife, he's one for the future. Ferreyra has never been a first choice, got  in 13 for Shakhtar, could be thrown in but hopefully not relying on him. Remy Cabella got 14 in 37 from midfield for Montpellier.)

10/1?

About this, maybe 8/1, but is he going to stay the season? Will he be in the African Cup of Nations?

Riviera first choice, I assume?


Difficult to tell who is first choice. He's injured so pretty impossible for him to be sold in this transfer window. Defo a danger in Jan but if he's scoring I can't see him going. If he's not the bet's dead anyways. There is a danger of African Cup of Nations, tho that doesn't normally cost too many games if and when.

You can have 14/1 with B355, the red shouty man has a very generous 5/1 quote. I think a proper price is somehwere in betweem, same as u guys


Pretty chuffed with my 14/1 ticket tonight even if Fred didn't want any (and even if it gives Pardew a stay of execution). My most thoroughly researched Fred post the OP here...
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« Reply #87383 on: September 20, 2014, 07:26:54 PM »

Anybody got a view here?

http://www.oddschecker.com/football/scottish/premiership/top-goalscorer

Really keen to get with Scepovic he is pretty good, young and probably realises this is a good stepping stone for him

Must say was hoping for bigger than 6's would have backed him at 8's

I actually like "apart from a lead year's" 33s ew for goodwillie he will be Aberdeen's main striker this year despite rooney having been the starting striker so far
Aberdeen will finish in top 4 and he should have a good run at it while the celtic strikers will be rotated will they get knocked out of Europe for 3rd time this year (hopefully get through group stage though)
other sites have goodwillie at around 16s I would say I would be happy with 10s-12s with the ew part the only reason he is higher at moment is rooney has started before him while he settles in

not sure if the prices havent been adjusted after todays games goodwillie scored his 2nd and is now starting games alongside rooney
rooney got his first of the season today aswell
leading scorer is on 3

latest prices best is 12-1 rooney and 16-1 goodwillie

dont think fred can get on with any bookie that is showing on oddschecker though
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« Reply #87384 on: September 20, 2014, 07:38:40 PM »

Not a tip - but had to laugh at Heskey here, man's a legend for agreeing to do this.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YuxUVv1PDTc
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« Reply #87385 on: September 20, 2014, 07:51:08 PM »

I think Southampton are at risk of being overrated.

They have beaten a very poor Newcastle side and an injury hit West Ham side pre Song/Valencia. They were certainly second best today when Swansea had 11 men on the pitch before taking control after the sending off.

They have a trip to Arsenal this week in the cup - Koeman has said he wants to take this competition seriously as the team is still gelling. I wouldn't expect 11 changes.

QPR then visit next Saturday and are 15/2 best price at the moment. They have the week off with no cup game. 15/2 seems a touch big to me. Haven't seen much of QPR really so don't feel confident recc'ing it but am interested to see where the price goes over the week.
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« Reply #87386 on: September 20, 2014, 08:49:46 PM »

a group going to be on the x factor tonight called only the young, my son went to school with one of them and he said tonight they've already got through to judges house stage, anywhere doing bets on winner? bet to lay off?
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« Reply #87387 on: September 20, 2014, 09:03:11 PM »

a group going to be on the x factor tonight called only the young, my son went to school with one of them and he said tonight they've already got through to judges house stage, anywhere doing bets on winner? bet to lay off?

Already one of the favourites (8/9 to 1), suggesting this is common knowledge. Judges groups are known which means judges houses are known.
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« Reply #87388 on: September 20, 2014, 09:36:32 PM »

a group going to be on the x factor tonight called only the young, my son went to school with one of them and he said tonight they've already got through to judges house stage, anywhere doing bets on winner? bet to lay off?

Already one of the favourites (8/9 to 1), suggesting this is common knowledge. Judges groups are known which means judges houses are known.

I've heard on twitter that they are through to the final 12. Could just be rumours but I had a little bit of them at 12's.
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« Reply #87389 on: September 20, 2014, 10:48:58 PM »

a group going to be on the x factor tonight called only the young, my son went to school with one of them and he said tonight they've already got through to judges house stage, anywhere doing bets on winner? bet to lay off?

Already one of the favourites (8/9 to 1), suggesting this is common knowledge. Judges groups are known which means judges houses are known.

I've heard on twitter that they are through to the final 12. Could just be rumours but I had a little bit of them at 12's.

could well be, judges houses was filmed in mid-august from what I can gather
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